注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 广发证券指出，2025年有色金属行业表现领先，背后是围绕美元信用走弱、AI科技革命等全球主 流叙事的驱动。市场认为有色金属将成为新一轮产业链变革的"原油"，广泛用于半导体、AI算力基础设 施及新型能源体系等领域。2025年COMEX铜、LME锡等工业金属价格显著上涨，但供需缺口并不明 显，价格中包含对远期供需关系的金融属性定价。2026年随着全球叙事可能收敛，有色金属将从定价远 期转向远近结合，真实需求定价权上升。同时，"反内卷"政策及南方国家工业化带来的出口需求可能成 为结构性支撑。 有色60ETF（159881）跟踪的是中证有色指数（930708），该指数从沪深市场中选取有色金属行业 代表性股票作为样本，涵盖铜、铝、锂、稀土等细分领域，以反映有色金属相关上市公司的整体表现。 该指数成 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is expected to enter a comprehensive bull market, driven by macroeconomic factors and fundamental demand recovery [1] - Industrial metals are anticipated to see significant price increases due to unexpected disruptions in major mines, a recovery in traditional demand from global interest rate cuts, and rising demand from new energy and AI [1] - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are expected to experience improved supply-demand dynamics, with lithium's oversupply concerns alleviating and cobalt prices rising due to export bans [1] - Precious metals are projected to maintain a long-term bullish trend as the dollar's credit system undergoes restructuring amid ongoing monetary expansion and weakened fiscal discipline [1] Group 2 - The Non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the China Non-ferrous Index (930708), which includes companies involved in the extraction, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, covering sectors like copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [2] - The index represents various aspects of China's non-ferrous metal industry, combining cyclical and some consumption attributes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by a tight supply-demand balance, supported by global monetary easing, enhanced resource strategic positioning, and the resonance of old and new industrial transformations [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry is characterized by a relatively independent performance due to structural supply-demand contradictions and the overlapping demands of old and new industries [1] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are gaining attention due to improved supply-demand dynamics [1] - In the small metals sector, strategic resources like lithium and rare earths are experiencing sustained demand growth in the context of the energy transition [1] - Gold maintains its allocation value as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2: ETF and Index Information - The Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which selects 60 listed companies involved in the entire non-ferrous metal industry chain from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - The index has a high weight distribution in sub-sectors such as gold, rare earths, and lithium, while also maintaining good industry diversification [1] - The index comprehensively reflects the overall performance of listed companies in China's non-ferrous metals industry [1]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see an optimization in its industrial structure due to the upcoming growth stabilization work plan, which will promote the optimization of supply-side capacity for metals like copper and aluminum, eliminate outdated capacity, and enhance the efficiency of resource, smelting, and demand linkages [1] - Copper prices are anticipated to rise in the medium term due to rigid supply, low inventory levels, and a weakening dollar, while aluminum prices may also see significant elasticity due to supply rigidity and global low inventory levels [1] - The long-term outlook for gold is positive due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties overseas and a weakening dollar, which highlights gold's safe-haven attributes [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which is compiled by the China Securities Index Company and reflects the overall performance of representative listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including copper, aluminum, and lead-zinc [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF Initiated Link A (013218) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF Initiated Link C (013219) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment remains volatile, with industrial metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum, continuing to fluctuate. However, the introduction of a series of policies in the second half of 2024 is expected to improve domestic macro sentiment and potentially boost upstream industrial metal demand due to recovering terminal demand and supply constraints [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices are under pressure from fluctuating macro policies, but tightening copper concentrate supply and declining smelting processing fees provide strong medium to long-term price support [1]. - The aluminum supply chain's vulnerability has been highlighted by recent disruptions in Guinea's bauxite supply, indicating that integrated layouts will become a development direction for the industry [1]. Market Indicators - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% in May, indicating improved market expectations and a potential recovery in terminal demand for industrial metals [1]. - The strategic metal tungsten has reached a historical price high, suggesting a potential revaluation of strategic metals in the context of countries pursuing supply chain autonomy [1]. Investment Products - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Index (930708), which includes representative listed companies in the nonferrous metal industry from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering various sub-industries such as copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals [1]. - The CSI Nonferrous Index reflects the overall performance of the nonferrous metal industry in the A-share market, with its constituent stocks exhibiting significant cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices [1].