1月30日，有色60ETF（159881）回调超9%，连续5日迎资金净流入，有色行情具备支撑，把握回调布 局机会。 华创证券指出，降息预期和美联储独立性危机强化、地缘冲突下避险升温以及美债或遭抛售等因素，持 续催化贵金属行情。央行购金需求持续对金价形成强支撑，中国央行已连续14个月增持黄金。黄金的避 险需求和投资需求或长期持续，价格或长期上行。白银易受库存挤兑危机与金融政策转向等影响，工业 属性和金融属性共振下，白银价格更具弹性。该机构持续看好电解铝红利属性，预计行业平均利润维持 高位，由于行业未来资本开支强度较低，上市公司普遍具备提高回馈股东的能力和意愿，红利资产属性 逐步凸显。铝短期进入消费淡季，但长期基本面和宏观叙事大逻辑暂未改变，对铝价支撑强。未来几年 供给刚性明显，电力扰动存量项目减产预期持续强化，增量项目释放缓慢；同时市场铝代铜、储能新需 求领域层出；铜铝比历史高位带来铝强大补涨潜力。全球铝库存总体维持低位，铝价支撑强。 有色60ETF（159881）跟踪的是中证有色金属指数（930708），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及有色金属 采选、冶炼与加工等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，覆盖铜、铝、黄金、锂 ...

矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌、稀有 金属等矿产资源开发业务的相关企业证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿采选行业的整体表现。根据 Wind数据，2025年全年，矿业ETF（561330）年内涨幅全市场ETF第三，有色类ETF第一，具备龙头更 集中，"黄金+铜+稀土"占比更高的特点。 风险提示：数据来源：Wind，矿业ETF2025年涨幅106.11%，在有色板块10只ETF中排名第一。提及个 股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参考，不代表其未来表 现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成投资建议或承诺。提 及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品要素、风险等级及收 益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 1月30日，矿业ETF（561330）10cm跌停，资金面看，矿业ETF（561330）近20日资金净流入超22亿 元，资金积极布局，铜铝比带来铝补涨潜力。 华创证券指出，降息预期和美联储独立性危机强化、地缘冲突下避险升温以及 ...

Core Viewpoint - The mining ETF (561330) has risen over 2% on January 29, with a net inflow of over 1.9 billion yuan in the past 20 days, driven by supply disruptions in industrial metals [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts, the crisis of Federal Reserve independence, rising geopolitical tensions, and potential sell-offs of U.S. Treasuries are continuously catalyzing the precious metals market [1] - Central bank demand for gold remains strong, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, providing strong support for gold prices [1] - The demand for gold as a safe haven and investment is expected to persist long-term, leading to a potential long-term price increase [1] Group 2: Industrial Metals - The agency maintains a positive outlook on the electrolytic aluminum sector, expecting average industry profits to remain high due to low future capital expenditure intensity, highlighting the sector's dividend asset attributes [1] - Although aluminum is entering a seasonal consumption lull, the long-term fundamentals and macro narrative remain unchanged, providing strong support for aluminum prices [1] - The global aluminum inventory remains low, and the copper-aluminum ratio is at a historical high, indicating significant potential for aluminum price rebounds [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 有色60ETF（159881）跟踪的是中证有色金属指数（930708），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及有色金属 采选、冶炼与加工等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，广泛覆盖行业各领域。指数成分股平均市值较 大，行业分布涵盖多种关键金属品种，整体呈现周期性与成长性结合的特点，以反映有色金属相关上市 公司证券的整体表现。 华创证券指出，降息预期和美联储独立性危机强化、地缘冲突下避险升温以及美债或遭抛售等因素，持 续催化贵金属行情。央行购金需求持续对金价形成强支撑，部分机构与央行层面的多重利好持续催化。 黄金的避险需求和投资需求或长期持续，价格或长期上行。白银工业属性和金融属性共振，价格更具弹 性。该机构持续看好电解铝红利属性，预计行业平均利润维持高位，由于行业未来资本开支强度较低， 红利资产属性逐步凸显。铝短期进入消费淡季，但长期基本面和宏观叙事大逻辑暂未改变，对铝价支撑 强。未来几年供给刚性明显，且铜铝比处于历史高位带来铝强大补涨潜力。全球铝库存总体维持低位， 铝价支撑强。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant rise in silver prices, with Silver Yunnan experiencing a 10.03% increase and achieving a five-day trading limit, reflecting strong market performance [1] - Silver Yunnan is identified as a major comprehensive multinational non-ferrous group in China, focusing on a full industry chain that includes mining, selection, smelting, trading, and new materials, producing over 1,000 tons of silver annually, which accounts for approximately 10% of the national capacity [1] - The current market conditions are influenced by the spot gold price surpassing $5,000 per ounce and spot silver reaching new highs, alongside a notable increase in silver production forecasts from Pan American Silver for Q4 2025 [1] Group 2 - There is a notable increase in the allocation of active equity funds towards the non-ferrous sector, with a significant rise in the proportion of non-ferrous metal positions [1] - Global central banks are entering a new phase of gold purchasing, with continued net buying of gold by various countries, which is expected to further boost demand for precious metals [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Europe regarding Greenland, are escalating, contributing to a favorable environment for precious metals as the dollar weakens [1]

Core Viewpoint - The silver price has surged, leading to a significant incident in Shenzhen's Shui Bei market where a silver dealer has reportedly failed to fulfill orders, causing financial distress among customers and suppliers [1][9]. Group 1: Incident Details - Multiple customers reported that a silver shop in Shenzhen suddenly closed, leaving many unable to redeem their purchased silver bullion [1]. - A dealer, Mr. Jin, stated that he ordered 5 kilograms of silver but was unable to receive it, with the shop owner owing him over 27,000 yuan [3]. - The shop, named "He Cheng Xing," is said to have liabilities of approximately 200 million yuan in undelivered silver [9]. Group 2: Financial Impact - Many affected merchants have reported losses ranging from tens of thousands to millions of yuan, with a conservative estimate of the total case value exceeding 10 million yuan [9][11]. - Over 350 individuals have joined a rights protection group to seek compensation, indicating widespread impact on the local business community [9]. Group 3: Market Context - The silver market has experienced a significant price increase, with a cumulative rise of over 147% over the past two years, and on January 14, 2026, spot silver prices reached an all-time high of $92.2 per ounce [11]. - Following this surge, silver prices saw a sharp decline of over 7% on January 15, 2026, highlighting the volatility in the market [11]. - Historical patterns indicate that silver has previously experienced sharp declines after significant price increases, suggesting potential risks for investors [13].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones reaching historical highs before retreating, with the Dow Jones dropping 466 points, a decline of nearly 1% [2] - Large tech stocks exhibited varied movements, with Google rising over 2% to surpass Apple in market capitalization, while Facebook fell nearly 2% [2] - Intel experienced a significant increase, rising over 6% and peaking at more than 11% during the trading session [2] Commodity Prices - Spot gold and silver saw substantial declines, with gold down 0.87% and silver down 3.56% in night trading [2] - As of 7:00 AM Beijing time, spot gold slightly increased to $4,459.53 per ounce, while spot silver fluctuated around $78 per ounce [2] - International oil prices experienced a downward trend, with NYMEX WTI crude oil falling over 1% to $56.4 per barrel, and ICE Brent crude dropping more than 0.4% [2] Oil Market News - Reports indicated that Venezuela is set to transfer between 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States, as stated by Trump [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market may continue to be volatile and strong, and the implied volatility of various financial options has generally rebounded. The current strong RMB exchange rate supports the market's volatile and strong pattern. Attention should be paid to changes in US dollar liquidity and domestic policy signals [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overview - Last week, the overall market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with most indexes closing down weekly. The ChiNext Index led the decline with a weekly drop of 1.25%. The petroleum and petrochemical and national defense and military industries performed prominently with weekly increases of 3.92% and 3.05% respectively. The public utilities and food and beverage sectors were weak, with weekly declines of about 2.72% and 2.26% respectively [1] - The market focus last week remained on US dollar liquidity and precious metals prices. The Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials supported keeping interest rates unchanged for "some time." The US dollar index rebounded slightly, and the RMB exchange rate remained strong. Precious metals prices remained in a high - level volatile pattern, and geopolitical risks during the holiday may further strengthen precious metals prices [1] Options Market - In the options market last week, the implied volatility (IV) of various financial options mainly rebounded and was generally around the median of the past year. The implied volatility of ChiNext ETF options had the largest increase, reaching 9.81%. The implied volatility of STAR 50 options (IV = 27%) and ChiNext Index options (IV = 24%) had rebounded above the one - year median. The IV of 50 and 300 options was currently in the range of 12% - 14%, and the IV of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options was in the range of 17% - 18%. The PCR of most financial options positions was in the range of 80% - 110%, which declined compared to the previous week [2] Strategy Outlook - Hold indexes with relatively reasonable valuations, such as the CSI 300 and CSI A500, and sell out - of - the - money put options of the corresponding indexes with a far - month expiration date [3] - For the STAR 50 Index, which has large recent fluctuations and still high static valuations, if holding the spot, consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options to reduce exposure risks. If there are substantial spot gains, consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small amount of far - month call options to cope with irrational market rises, such as the ChiNext Index [3] - Since the discount of the CSI 1000 - 2603 stock index futures has converged, consider shifting the position to the 2606 contract with a higher discount and continue to form a covered call strategy of long stock index and short out - of - the - money call options [3]

Group 1 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has announced a second increase in margin requirements for precious metal futures, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, citing market volatility and the need for adequate collateral coverage [1][3]. - Precious metals have experienced significant volatility, with silver futures reaching a historic high of over $83 per ounce before a substantial pullback [3]. - Historically, increases in margin requirements by CME have often led to declines in precious metal prices, as traders are required to provide more collateral, reducing available funds and dampening market enthusiasm [3][5]. Group 2 - The tightening of the futures market does not necessarily indicate a decline in the physical market, and there may still be potential for gold to experience a rally in the coming year, with price targets speculated between $4,900 and $5,000 [6]. - Technical analysis indicates that after testing resistance at $4,400, gold prices have begun to retreat, suggesting weak bullish momentum, and there is a risk of new lows if the downward trend continues [6]. - In the silver market, prices are currently holding around the $70 per ounce mark, with expectations of a short-term rebound, but the overall adjustment trend remains negative [7].

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly silver, have started to rebound after a significant drop, with silver prices increasing by nearly 6% in a single day [1] - The year-to-date performance of precious metals has been remarkable, with silver and platinum showing substantial gains [3] Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX silver has seen a price increase of 7.26% recently, with a year-to-date gain of 158.02% [2] - London silver prices rose by 5.96% recently, with a year-to-date increase of 164.61% [2] - Platinum prices increased by 6.07% recently, with a year-to-date gain of 145.06% [2] Group 2: Historical Context - Gold prices have reached a historical high of over $4500 per ounce in December, marking the best performance since 1979, with a year-to-date increase of over 65% [3] - The overall performance of precious metals this year has been described as "epic," with silver leading the gains among major assets [3]