Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice outlining the 2025 industrial energy conservation inspection tasks and carbon reduction diagnostic services, targeting multiple petrochemical and chemical enterprises [1][2] Group 1: Energy Conservation Inspection Tasks - A total of 26 refining enterprises, 13 synthetic ammonia enterprises, 3 chemical fiber and blended fabric enterprises, 2 tire enterprises, 1 chemical enterprise, 1 fertilizer enterprise, 1 titanium dioxide enterprise, and 1 coal-to-methanol enterprise are included in the energy conservation inspection task list [1] - The notice emphasizes the need for energy conservation and carbon reduction diagnostics to identify weaknesses in production processes, key product equipment, energy structure, and energy management systems [1] Group 2: Carbon Reduction Diagnostic Services - The notice includes 1 petrochemical enterprise, 5 nitrogen fertilizer enterprises, 1 rubber and plastic products enterprise, 1 chlor-alkali enterprise, and 3 chemical enterprises in the carbon reduction diagnostic service task list [1] - The document highlights the importance of energy conservation and carbon reduction services in guiding enterprises to implement energy-saving technology transformations and promote equipment upgrades [2]

转自：新华财经 近日，云南省人民政府发布《关于2024年度科学技术奖励的决定》，云南云天化股份有限公司凭借在磷 化工和合成氨领域的两项重大技术创新，同时斩获云南省科学技术进步奖三等奖。 在磷资源高效利用方面，云天化研发的《低质磷酸生产增效磷酸二铵关键技术研发及产业化》项目创造 性解决了高杂质磷矿生产过程中淤渣酸等低质磷酸利用率低的行业难题，通过创新工艺技术和装备升 级，成功研发出具有促进作物生长发育、提升抗逆性的增效磷酸二铵系列产品，并在全国推广应用。 在节能降耗技术领域，云天化针对50万吨／年合成氨装置创新性研发出反应热高效利用的耐硫耐氯短流 程节能变换制氢新工艺、耐硫耐氯变换制氢系列装备。该技术成果有效解决了制约装置长周期运行和高 能耗等关键性问题，项目核心技术成功申请2项国家发明专利、2项实用新型专利。 云天化相关负责人表示，下一步，云天化将继续以"技术突破+产业升级"为强引擎，持续推动创新链与 产业链深度融合，加快科技成果转化步伐，为企业高质量发展注入强劲动能，为行业技术进步贡献云天 化智慧。（钱国军） 编辑：赵鼎 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy in the first half of the year remained resilient, with China's GDP in H1 growing by 5.3% year-on-year, higher than the annual target of 5%. Fiscal efforts and the "rush to export" phenomenon supported the economic data, but also reduced the urgency of policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for potential further pro - growth policies [1]. - Since July, there has been an increasing expectation of "anti - involution" policies in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new energy vehicles. However, more detailed energy - saving and carbon - reduction policies are needed to promote the "anti - involution" trading [2]. - After the passage of the "Great Beautiful" Act in the US, Trump has shifted his focus to external pressure to accelerate tariff negotiations. The current tariff situation is in a "stagnant" stage, and its impact on sentiment and demand expectations should be watched out for [3]. - The current commodity fundamentals are still weak, and one should be cautious about the implementation of policy expectations. The volatility of commodity prices may remain high [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's export performance in June was remarkable, with a new round of "rush to export" under the easing of Sino - US tariffs. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in June slowed to 4.8% due to the suspension of policy subsidies in some areas, but subsequent subsidies are expected to support domestic consumption. Infrastructure and manufacturing investments declined, and the risk of the weak real - estate sales dragging down the real - estate chain still exists. On July 22, A - shares strengthened throughout the day, and the commodity futures market saw a wave of limit - up for many varieties such as coking coal and coke, stimulating the full - scale outbreak of cyclical stocks [1]. "Anti - Involution" Transaction Tracking - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of disorderly low - price competition among enterprises. The expectation of "anti - involution" policies in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, and lithium battery has increased, and the prices of some commodities have rebounded. The upcoming ten key industry pro - growth work plans for industries like steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals will focus on structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity [2]. "对等 Tariff" Impact - The passage of the "Great Beautiful" Act in the US has shifted its policy from "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary policy" in the first half of the year to a stage where policies are "easy to loosen and difficult to tighten." The US Treasury Secretary said that tariff revenues are "huge" and may account for 1% of the US GDP, with expected tariff revenues of up to $2.8 trillion in the next decade. Trump has extended the grace period for the "equal tariff" and started the "equal tariff 2.0" stage. The US has sent tariff letters to 25 countries in 4 batches, and negotiations with various countries are in progress [3]. Commodity Sector - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and the short - term geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, with a relatively loose medium - term supply outlook. OPEC + has accelerated production increases, and the third direct Russia - Ukraine negotiation will be held this week [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, one should consider long - term positions in industrial products on dips [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: In the second half of the year, the demand is pro - cyclically weak, and the policy is "easy to loosen and hard to tighten". Under the assumption of relatively mild monetary and supply - side policies, focus on policy expectations in July, with a relatively positive macro tone. From July to September, if policies do not turn significantly looser, the US will face liquidity risks and the threat of "reciprocal tariffs", bringing macro pressure. After September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [8][29][30]. - **Mesoscopic**: From the perspective of policy documents and industry self - discipline, industries such as steel, refining, synthetic ammonia, cement, electrolytic aluminum, data centers, coal - fired power, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e - commerce can be focused on for the current comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition [9]. - **Microscopic**: Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency. It is necessary for the Fed to restart the easing cycle smoothly, and gold, crude oil, and non - ferrous metals are relatively beneficial. Domestically, the core is the supply - side policy. Referring to 2015, sectors with obvious supply - side production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved, with the mid - and downstream benefiting more than the upstream. This round focuses on sectors such as the black sector and new energy metals [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - **Demand and Inventory Cycle**: The pro - cyclical demand in the second half of the year is weak. The Sino - US inventory cycle has re - entered the destocking phase, and this round of destocking may last until the end of 2025 [14]. - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: Global central banks are "easy to loosen and hard to tighten", and both China and the US are increasing fiscal policies. In China, a series of financial policies have been introduced, and the "market bottom" is clear [20][21]. - **Tariff Threats**: Global populist waves are continuous. Trump has issued tariff threats, and the US is in different stages of trade negotiations with various countries [25]. - **Macro Scenario Deduction**: In July, focus on policy expectations; from July to September, there is macro pressure; after September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [28][29][30]. 3.2 Mesoscopic - **Policy Shift in the US**: The passage of the "Great Beauty" bill marks the US's shift from the first half of the year's "tight fiscal expectation + neutral currency" to a "easy to loosen and hard to tighten" policy stage [32]. - **Domestic Policy Focus**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting focuses on governing "involution - style" competition, but details of industry production cuts are needed to determine the inflation trading theme [32]. - **Policy on "Involution - style" Competition**: Policy documents and industry self - discipline focus on industries such as steel, refining, etc. The causes of "involution - style" competition are analyzed, and comprehensive rectification ideas are proposed [9][35][36]. 3.3 Commodities - **Capital Expenditure**: The capital expenditure of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, while that of the black, chemical, and energy sectors has increased. The capital expenditure of crude oil has increased, and the capital expenditure of industrial metals has shown different trends [42][45]. - **Asset Performance in Stagflation - like Situations**: Overseas macro situations are more in line with "stagflation - like" characteristics. In historical stagflation - like stages, the performance of various assets is highly differentiated [54]. - **2015 Supply - side Reform Review**: In 2015, supply - side structural reform was proposed, with clear tasks such as "cutting overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weak links". Sectors with obvious production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved [61][62].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the 2025 National Industrial Energy Conservation Supervision Task List, identifying 2,797 enterprises for energy conservation supervision in 2025 [1] - The focus includes key industries such as steel, refining, synthetic ammonia, cement, electrolytic aluminum, and data centers, with 2,590 enterprises targeted for special energy efficiency supervision [1] - Additionally, 207 enterprises will undergo special supervision regarding the implementation of rectifications for violations identified in 2024 [1]