市场仍有韧性，适当博弈消费及地产 财信证券宏观策略周报（2.2-2.6） 2026 年 02 月 1 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 3.85 2.53 26.68 沪深 300 1.44 -0.87 23.30 -6% 4% 14% 24% 34% 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 2026-01 上证指数 沪深300 | | | 执业证书编号:S0530520010002 yuanchuang@hnchasing.com 黄红卫 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 大势研判。权益市场，指数上行斜率过快时注意风险、指数下探至支撑位时 可合理低吸；方向上，鉴于春节消费旺季，结合当前市场阻力最小策略，节 前可适度潜伏消费、地产等顺周期方向，例如白酒、电影、旅游等。债券市 场，预计春节前后，10 年期国债到期收益率在 1.80%—1.85%区间窄幅震荡， 下破 1.8%仍需新的触发因素。商品市场， ...

证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 市场上行斜率放缓，重视业绩基本面 财信证券宏观策略周报（1.26-1.30） 2026 年 01 月 25 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 5.59 5.68 28.71 沪深 300 1.97 2.39 23.85 -6% 4% 14% 24% 34% 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 上证指数 沪深300 黄红卫 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 大势研判。展望后续，更宜战略看多、战术灵活、坚守业绩。方向上，我们仍 维持"短期宜顺应趋势，积极把握从 2025 年 12 月中旬到 2026 年 3 月初的做 多窗口期"的判断，预计当前上行趋势仍未逆转；节奏上，综合考虑国内外 因素对市场的影响，指数上行斜率过快时注意风险、指数下探至支撑位时可 合理低吸；方向上，在科技成长的大主线基础上，更加侧重考量"业绩基本 面"。 投资建议。近期可关注：（1）密集政策利好催化的商业航天、卫星产业、AI 应 ...

Group 1 - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the A-share market, driven by a slow bull market expectation, seasonal market movements, and global market synchronization, indicating a favorable investment window from mid-December 2025 to early March 2026 [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on technology growth sectors, particularly those that have previously underperformed but have catalysts for growth, in light of valuation expansion and liquidity easing [4][7] - Key investment areas include commercial aerospace, satellite industries, AI applications, humanoid robots, domestic AI computing power, and sectors benefiting from price increases such as storage chips, consumer electronics, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [4][13][15] Group 2 - Recent government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand include optimizing service industry loans and implementing interest subsidies for personal consumption loans, which are expected to significantly enhance consumer demand [7][8] - Domestic prices are showing a mild upward trend, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.2% month-on-month in December, driven by increased consumer spending during the holiday season [8][9] - The report highlights the distinction between "anti-involution" and monopoly, indicating that price increases and profit margins are key factors in differentiating the two concepts, with ongoing reforms expected to support price recovery in certain industries [10][12] Group 3 - The report notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been compressed, with a low probability of rate cuts in January 2026, but a cumulative reduction of about 50 basis points is anticipated throughout the year [11] - The technology sector is experiencing structural inflation characteristics, with new economic sectors showing price increases while traditional sectors remain weak, indicating a divergence in price trends [12] - The report maintains that the A-share market is likely to enter a new bullish phase, encouraging the acquisition of quality A-share assets, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and technology growth sectors [13][15]

Group 1 - The report highlights the "spring market rally" effect, indicating that from the Central Economic Work Conference to the National People's Congress, the A-share market typically experiences a rally, with an average increase of 18.30% over 57 days based on historical data from 2009 to 2025 [4][7] - The report suggests that the market is expected to gradually enter a "spring market rally" phase, driven by increased liquidity and risk appetite, alongside favorable domestic policy expectations [4][7] - Key sectors to focus on include commercial aerospace, satellite industry, national defense, AI applications, and new consumption areas such as health, cultural tourism, and pet economy, which are expected to benefit from policy support [4][14][16] Group 2 - The macroeconomic recovery foundation remains to be solidified, with fixed asset investment declining by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, indicating a need for policy measures to boost domestic demand [8][11] - The report notes that public budget expenditure increased by 1.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in social security, technology, and environmental protection spending, reflecting a focus on improving livelihoods and technological advancement [11] - The Japanese central bank's recent interest rate hike is expected to have limited impact on global markets, as the market had already priced in this increase, suggesting a continued trend of easing liquidity globally [12] Group 3 - The report provides an overview of A-share market performance, noting a slight increase in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.03% and a decrease in the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.89% during the specified week [17] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was reported at 17,380.31 billion, reflecting a decrease of 10.12% compared to the previous week [17] - The report also highlights the performance of various sectors, with retail, non-bank financials, and beauty care showing the highest gains [17][20]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently experiencing a low-level oscillation, with initial signs of stabilization as major indices' moving averages converge, awaiting a new trend in the market [4][7][16] - It is anticipated that a new buying window will open around mid-December, driven by institutional funds repositioning for the next year, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][16] - The long-term outlook suggests a "slow bull" market for A-shares in 2026, supported by improved corporate performance, increased household savings entering the market, and a favorable global liquidity environment [4][7] Group 2 - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in the commercial aerospace sector, with the market expected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan this year, driven by favorable policies and the establishment of dedicated regulatory bodies [11] - There is a focus on strategic minor metals and industrial metals, with expectations for a rebound in prices as the price gap between precious metals and these metals continues to widen [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of the AI application sector and domestic AI computing capabilities, which are expected to benefit from policy support and market trends [17][18] Group 3 - The real estate market is showing signs of divergence, with new home prices increasing while second-hand home prices continue to decline, affecting consumer sentiment [8] - The report notes that the financial sector is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality development, with regulatory changes expected to inject significant liquidity into the market [12] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to positively impact sectors such as non-ferrous metals and innovative pharmaceuticals [18]