农林牧渔 2025 年 08 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《猪价新一轮上行或逐步开启，非瘟 疫苗打开动保板块成长空间—行业周 报》-2025.8.17 《8 月 USDA 农产品报告上调全球玉 米、水稻产量，下调大豆、小麦产量 —行业点评报告》-2025.8.15 《出猪节奏导致 7 月猪价涨幅不及预 期，后市猪价不悲观—行业点评报 告》-2025.8.14 10 收储助推猪价见底回升，宠物食品出口及国内消费 高景气延续 饲料板块国内市场受益禽畜后周期，海外强劲需求支撑价格。推荐：海大集 团、新希望等。 消费升级叠加关税壁垒，宠物板块国货崛起逻辑持续强化。推荐：乖宝宠物、 中宠股份、佩蒂股份。 本周市场表现（8.18-8.22）:农业跑赢大盘 0.23 个百分点 ——行业周报 陈雪丽（分析师） 王高展（分析师） chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S ...

以下文章来源于RimeData 来觅数据 ，作者来觅研究院 RimeData 来觅数据 . 全面的一级市场数据平台 在政策持续聚焦与推动下，乡村振兴战略稳步迈进，二季度乡村振兴领域呈现出蓬勃发展的态势，在粮食生产、产业发展、农村建设等多方面成果显著， 进一步夯实了 "农业强、农村美、农民富" 的发展根基。种业振兴与智慧农业在二季度持续发力。种业领域，政策持续加持，2025 年中央一号文件首次将 "基因编辑育种产业化攻关" 纳入重点任务，并缩短政策审批周期至 18 个月，极大激发了科研机构与企业的创新活力。在智慧农业方面，各地依托数字技 术，持续推进农业生产智能化。中央一号文件提出支持发展智慧农业，拓展人工智能、数据、低空等技术应用场景，并提升农村地区电信普遍服务水平， 为智慧农业发展筑牢基建根基。 2 2025年二季度乡村振兴领域融资活跃度延续回升态势。据来觅PEVC数据，2025年一季度乡村振兴领域合计发生融资案例46起，较上季度增长2.22%；合 计涉及融资金额16.09亿元，环比增长8.64%。 从获投领域来看， 农产品加工赛道延续热度，本季度发生8起融资案例，仍居细分领域首位，合计融资金额 14.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the rural revitalization sector, highlighting significant growth and opportunities in various sub-sectors [6][19]. Core Insights - The rural revitalization strategy is progressing steadily, with notable achievements in grain production, industrial development, and rural construction, reinforcing the foundation for a strong agricultural sector [6]. - The average disposable income of rural residents reached 11,936 yuan, reflecting a real growth of 6.2%, which is higher than urban income growth [7]. - The report emphasizes the integration of digital technology in agriculture, with a focus on smart agriculture and the application of AI and data technologies [7][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The rural revitalization sector is experiencing robust development, particularly in grain production, with summer grain output reaching 2,994.8 billion jin, ensuring food security [6]. - The report outlines the continuous policy support for seed industry revitalization and smart agriculture, with significant investments in technology and infrastructure [7]. Investment Dynamics - In Q2 2025, the rural revitalization sector saw a total of 46 financing cases, with a total financing amount of 1.609 billion yuan, marking an 8.64% increase from the previous quarter [19]. - The financing activity is concentrated in agricultural product processing, with 8 financing cases totaling 1.41 billion yuan, driven by significant financing events [19]. - The report notes a shift towards later-stage financing, with a higher concentration of investments in B rounds and beyond, indicating a cautious approach from investors towards early-stage projects [20]. Key Financing Events - Notable financing events include a 1.3 billion yuan strategic financing for Sheng Tai Chuang Fa, aimed at integrating the grain processing business [32]. - Other significant investments include over 100 million yuan in Zhi Dai Technology and several multi-million yuan investments in various agricultural sectors [32]. Active Investors - The report identifies 13 active investment institutions in the rural revitalization sector, with a focus on smart agriculture and genetically modified organisms [30]. - State-owned funds dominate the financing landscape, with a preference for debt financing due to the long-term nature and high capital requirements of the sector [30]. Policy and Timeline - The report outlines several key policies aimed at enhancing rural health services, promoting high-quality farmer training, and supporting digital rural development [10][11]. - Important milestones include the issuance of various regulations and funding initiatives to bolster rural infrastructure and agricultural productivity [12].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump threatens to impose a 25% tariff on Indian products exported to the U.S., citing high tariffs and strict non-tariff barriers from India as reasons for the trade imbalance [1] Trade Relations - The U.S. and India have engaged in multiple rounds of trade negotiations to address contentious issues, particularly concerning U.S. agricultural products and dairy market access [1] - Despite some progress in negotiations, Indian officials have resisted opening their domestic market to imports of wheat, corn, rice, and genetically modified soybeans, arguing that these imports threaten the livelihoods of millions of Indian farmers [1] Economic Impact - The anticipated new tariffs are expected to affect India's exports to the U.S., where the current trade deficit for the U.S. with India stands at $45.7 billion [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the escalating tensions between the United States and BRICS nations, particularly India, due to trade policies and tariffs imposed by the U.S. government [1][4][10] - President Trump announced that the U.S. would release tariff letters or agreements with trade partners, and any country supporting BRICS' "anti-American policies" would face an additional 10% tariff [1][8] - India has been negotiating with the U.S. for a trade agreement but faces challenges due to high tariffs on automotive parts and demands for agricultural market access, leading to growing dissatisfaction within India [1][3] Group 2 - India has rejected the large-scale entry of U.S. genetically modified agricultural products, citing food security and the protection of its agricultural sector, which is vital for its rural population [3][4] - In response to U.S. tariffs totaling $725 million on Indian goods, India plans to impose equivalent tariffs on U.S. products, asserting its rights under WTO rules [3][4] - The recent BRICS summit in Brazil provided India an opportunity to reassess its international positioning, with India voting in favor of a joint statement criticizing rising tariffs, indirectly targeting U.S. policies [4][10] Group 3 - India's shift in attitude at the BRICS summit reflects its realization of the need to diversify its international alliances and reduce dependence on the U.S. amid tough trade negotiations [7][10] - The BRICS nations, which account for a significant portion of the global economy, are increasingly uniting against U.S. trade policies, with potential implications for global trade dynamics [8][10] - The article suggests that the upcoming U.S. tariff announcements could lead to a new round of adjustments in global trade, with India's role in U.S.-India trade relations and BRICS cooperation being crucial to watch [10]

Core Points - The Indian government has set "red lines" in trade negotiations with the U.S. regarding genetically modified crops, dairy products, and the automotive industry, indicating a cautious approach due to increasing political pressure [1][2] - The outcome of these negotiations will determine whether India faces a 26% tariff from the U.S., which could significantly impact India's exports and economy [1] - India has communicated its unwillingness to allow U.S. exports of genetically modified crops and to open its dairy and automotive sectors to U.S. competition [2] Group 1: Negotiation Stance - The Indian government, led by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, emphasizes that trade negotiations will prioritize national interests and will not be bound by deadlines [1] - India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has stated that agriculture and dairy are critical red lines in the trade talks, asserting that the government will not compromise the status of domestic farmers [1][3] Group 2: Domestic Political Pressure - There is significant domestic political pressure on the Indian government from opposition parties and farmer groups, warning against excessive concessions to the U.S. [3] - Farmers, who are a key voter base for Modi's party, are concerned that genetically modified crops could harm their livelihoods, with warnings from farmer group representatives about the economic impact [3] - The opposition party, Congress, expresses skepticism about the government's ability to resist U.S. demands, with leaders predicting that Modi will yield to U.S. tariff deadlines [3]

Group 1: Swine Industry - The domestic supply and demand for pigs is expected to improve marginally by Q2 2025, with pig prices supported and entering a phase of gradual upward movement. External factors such as tariff-driven increases in feed raw material prices and higher costs for imported meat are also contributing positively to pig prices. The swine sector is highlighted as a defensive asset amid macroeconomic shocks, reinforcing investment logic. Recommended stocks include Wens Foodstuff Group, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [4][86]. - In 2024, China's pork production is projected to reach 56.75 million tons, accounting for 49% of global production, with consumption at 57.95 million tons, representing 50% of global consumption. This positions China as the world's largest pork producer and consumer [13][15]. - The average price of pork in 2024 is estimated at 16.8 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 11.8% year-on-year. The swine farming market size is expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year [17][32]. Group 2: Poultry Industry - The demand for white chicken remains resilient despite uncertainties from U.S.-China tariff policies and avian influenza outbreaks. The consumption of white feather broilers is expected to improve marginally, with recommended stocks including San Nong Development and He Feng Co [5][94]. - In 2024, the total output of meat chickens in China is projected to reach 14.84 billion, with white feather broilers accounting for 60.85% of this figure. The output of white feather broilers is expected to increase by 2.2% year-on-year [99]. Group 3: Animal Health - The market for piglets and poultry chicks is stable, with a solid demand for poultry chicks supported by increasing poultry farming. The market for ruminant and pet vaccines is also expected to remain robust, with recommended stocks including Bio-Group, Kexin Biology, and Pulaike [6]. Group 4: Planting and Seeds - The focus on food security is emphasized, with companies involved in high-yield genetically modified soybeans likely to benefit from the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The third batch of genetically modified corn varieties is expected to be approved for planting, which may increase the area under cultivation [7]. Group 5: Feed Industry - The recovery of the swine sector is expected to boost domestic demand for feed, while overseas markets present new growth opportunities. The demand for pig feed is anticipated to rebound as pig farming profitability improves and pig stocks gradually recover [8]. Group 6: Pet Industry - The upcoming shopping festivals are expected to drive demand for pet food, with domestic brands likely to gain market share due to increased tariffs on imported high-end products. Recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co, and Petty Co [6].

以下文章来源于RimeData 来觅数据 ，作者来觅研究院 导读：4月7日，中共中央、国务院印发《加快建设农业强国规划（2024-2035）》，其中提到要推动种业自主创新全面突破，加强种质资 源保护利用，建设国际一流的国家农业种植资源保存、鉴定、创制和基因挖掘重大设施。实施育种联合攻关和畜禽遗传改良计划，加快建 设南繁硅谷。实施生物育种重大专项，选育高油高产大豆、耐盐碱作物等品种，加快生物育种产业化应用。 01 生物育种 生物育种是指利用现代生物学技术（如基因工程、分子标记、细胞工程等）结合传统育种方法，对动植物进行遗传改良，以获得优良性状（如高产、抗 病、耐逆、优质等）的新品种的过程，其核心是通过操控生物体的遗传物质（DNA）来定向优化目标性状，提高农业生产效率。 全球大力发展生物育种技术，主要是为了应对传统种植方法存在的诸多问题，如育种效率低、抗逆性差、资源利用效率低以及难以满足多样化市场需求 等。生物育种技术凭借其精准高效、抗逆性强、资源利用高效等优势，能显著提高粮食产量，保障粮食安全，同时推动农业的智能化和可持续发展。生物 育种技术已成为现代农业发展的关键驱动力，对于提升农业竞争力、应对资源约束以及推 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 4 月 28 日 转基因作物推广加速，未来大有可为 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 报告导读： 2025 年，我国转基因玉米产业迎来关键发展节点。农业农村部于 4 月 8 日公示初审通过的 99 个转基 因玉米、大豆品种，彰显我国转基因技术推广决心，呼应中央一号文件中"发展农业新质生产力"号召。 转基因玉米作为试点作物，其应用前景与推广趋势备受瞩目。全球转基因作物种植面积自 1996 年商 业化元年起稳健增长，2023 年达 2.06 亿公顷，美国、巴西等国处于领先地位。我国转基因玉米发展历经 起步、审慎推进到产业化突破等阶段，审批流程严谨规范。转基因技术有望显著提升我国玉米单产，目前 平均增产幅度可达 9%左右。 种子定价及成本影响方面，转基因种子虽有溢价，但其降低农药使用、提高产量的效益可为农户创造 更高经济价值。2025 年转基因玉米推广面积预计达 4500 万-5000 万亩，种植省份将增至 13 个，渗透率 初步估算为 6%-7.7%，后续有望快速提升。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and self-sufficiency in agriculture, highlighting the recent issuance of the "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse (2024-2035)" by the Central Committee and the State Council [1][17] - The plan focuses on ensuring stable and safe supply of food and important agricultural products, with a commitment to protect 1.865 billion acres of arable land and 1.546 billion acres of permanent basic farmland [1][17] - The report notes the acceleration of genetically modified (GM) crop approvals, with 99 GM varieties recently passing initial review, indicating a potential increase in GM crop planting and market penetration [2][18] Summary by Sections Agricultural Data Tracking - The average price of lean pigs is 14.56 CNY/kg, down 0.3% from last week, while the average wholesale price of pork is 20.84 CNY/kg, also down 0.3% [21][22] - The average price of white feather chickens is 7.34 CNY/kg, down 0.3%, and the average price of chicken products remains stable at 8.9 CNY/kg [19][35] - The report highlights the potential for investment in companies involved in the commercialization of GM crops, as the approval process is expected to enhance growth prospects for industry players [19] Livestock and Poultry - In pig farming, the report suggests focusing on leading companies with favorable cost-performance ratios, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][19] - In poultry farming, the report indicates a potential recovery in chicken prices and suggests monitoring seasonal price elasticity opportunities [19] Crop and Agricultural Products - The approval of GM varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with the report anticipating positive impacts on industry growth and profitability [19] - The report also notes that fluctuations in agricultural product prices are increasing, with leading feed companies likely to benefit from their scale and supply chain advantages [19]