2025/2026作物年度，小麦产量和消费量均有望创下新高 气温上升或将显著增加适宜小麦种植的土地面积 据美国农业部预测，全球小麦产量有望在2025/2026作物年度创下8.086亿吨的历史新高。然而，这一亮 眼的总体数字背后，不同地区小麦生产情况却存在分化。 美国农业部数据显示，中国、印度、欧盟、俄罗斯和阿根廷预计将实现小麦丰收，而其他国家由于天气 干旱，小麦产量将受到冲击。加拿大用于小麦种植的土地面积已出现下降。 与此同时，数据显示2025/2026年度小麦消费量有望创下历史新高。中国不仅是全球最大的小麦生产 国，通常也是最大的小麦进口国。由于一些主要产区受到天气干旱影响，中国进口量预计在2025/26年 度增加270万吨。其他亚洲国家，如印度尼西亚、菲律宾和孟加拉国，因消费和人口双重增长的影响， 今年小麦进口量也可能出现显著上升。 供应不确定性下的波动加剧 适应气候变化 农业科技在培育耐气候小麦品种方面发挥着关键作用，尽管仅靠创新无法完全保障小麦产量。基因编辑 和转基因小麦品种的发展，特别是那些更能抵御天气影响的品种，可能会对供需格局产生重大影响。 尽管目前尚无大规模商业化种植的转基因小麦品种，各国对这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The initiative by the Oman Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Water Resources aims to enhance wheat production and sustainability for farmers and investors in Oman [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project is strategic, focusing on increasing agricultural yield and productivity [1] - It consists of three main phases: procurement of modern wheat planting and harvesting equipment, training farmers on the use of harvesters and mechanical seeders, and annual procurement of high-quality wheat seeds [1] - The initiative includes selecting key farmers and providing free wheat harvesting services [1] Group 2: Support for Farmers - The Ministry encourages farmers to cultivate wheat by providing high-yield seed varieties, harvesters, and packaging materials [1] - Additional support includes consulting, technical assistance, and on-site support for farmers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic high-quality specialty wheat is gaining traction in the market due to increased support for breeding and promotion, leading to a significant reduction in imports and a shift towards local procurement by enterprises [1][2][4] Group 1: Industry Developments - The government has implemented quality grain projects and seed industry revitalization actions, enhancing support for the breeding and promotion of domestic high-quality wheat varieties [1][2] - Precision agricultural technology has been integrated to significantly improve the yield and quality stability of high-quality wheat, with some varieties comparable to imported ones [2][3] - The domestic wheat import volume dropped to 1.61 million tons from January to May this year, a decrease of 80.1% year-on-year, creating market space for domestic high-quality wheat [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for high-quality specialty wheat is rising due to consumption upgrades and the refined development of the food industry, with different wheat types catering to various food products [1][2] - The domestic high-quality specialty wheat has become dominant in the medium-gluten wheat market, with increasing market share in high-end strong-gluten and weak-gluten wheat segments [2] Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - Despite improvements, domestic high-quality specialty wheat still faces challenges in key indicators like gluten strength and stability compared to imported high-end varieties [3] - There is a lack of collaboration in the supply chain, with some flour processing enterprises still relying on imports, leading to underutilization of the market value of high-quality wheat [3] - To enhance market recognition and sustainable development, it is essential to cultivate high-yield, resilient new varieties and support contract farming with insurance mechanisms to ensure stable income for farmers [3][4]

Core Insights - The event held on April 25 in Cangzhou, Hebei, promoted the Huanghua drought-resistant wheat brand, with 13 companies participating and 5 partnerships established with quality buyers from Beijing [1][2] - The unique qualities and production history of the drought-resistant wheat, which thrives in saline-alkali soil, were highlighted during the event [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - Huanghua drought-resistant wheat has over 2,600 years of cultivation history, with previous yields as low as 50 kilograms per mu due to saline-alkali land [2] - Recent agricultural advancements, including improved irrigation and organic fertilization, have led to the development of local varieties such as "Jiemai 19" and "Cangmai 6002," resulting in a significant increase in yield [2] Group 2: Production and Market Demand - In 2024, over 800,000 mu of Huanghua drought-resistant wheat achieved an average yield of 240 kilograms per mu, totaling over 190,000 tons, marking increases in yield, area, and total production [2] - The wheat has a high flour extraction rate of approximately 76% and is classified as high-gluten wheat, which is in high demand in the traditional noodle market of Beijing [2]