为何须保持制造业合理比重 编者按制造业是立国之本、强国之基。2025年5月，习近平总书记在河南考察时指出："制造业是国民经济的重要支柱，推进中国式现代化必须保持制造业 合理比重。"党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，保持制造业合理比重，构建以先 进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系。中国经济时报约请知名智库专家，从历史大势、时代大潮、世界大局等维度，探析保持制造业合理比重的机理和规 律。 -金 通- -杜伟杰- 核心观点 制造业是实体经济的重要组成部分。推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合，必须以制造业为主，加快构建现代化产业体系。要紧紧围绕传统产业转型升级、 新兴产业培育壮大、未来产业前瞻布局三大方向，着力构建支撑深度融合的创新体系。 ■金通 杜伟杰 党的二十届四中全会强调"坚持把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上，保持制造业合理比重，构建以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系"，并把"推动科 技创新和产业创新深度融合"作为"加快高水平科技自立自强，引领发展新质生产力"的一项重要任务。 制造业是实体经济的重要组成部分。推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合，必须以制造业为主，加 ...

Economic Overview - The national economy in October continues to show a stable and improving trend, with production supply remaining stable and employment conditions generally solid [1] - The overall growth rate has slowed, with industrial added value increasing by 4.9% year-on-year, down from 6.5% [1] - Exports decreased by 1.1%, a significant drop from the previous month's growth of 8.3% [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.9%, slightly below the previous value of 3.0% [1] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline of 0.3% last month to an increase of 0.2%, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic demand [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, marking six consecutive months of growth [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed for three consecutive months, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, with the decline in the tertiary sector investment being a major factor [2] - Investment in the first and second industries remains positive, while the third industry saw a decline of 5.3% [2] - Private investment dropped by 4.5%, but excluding real estate development, it showed a slight positive growth of 0.2% [2] Manufacturing Sector - Despite overall investment pressures, manufacturing investment grew by 2.7% year-on-year from January to October, surpassing the overall investment growth rate [3] - High-tech manufacturing investment is increasing rapidly, indicating a structural optimization in the manufacturing sector [3] - The demand for productive services is expanding due to manufacturing upgrades, highlighting significant investment opportunities in the service sector [3] Policy Recommendations - To establish a new economic growth model driven by domestic demand, consumption, and innovation, there is a need for enhanced policy guidance and investment support for both living and productive services [3] - Private enterprises, with their flexible mechanisms, are well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities in these service sectors [3] - Reform efforts should focus on reducing entry barriers to stimulate private investment in high-value-added service areas, thereby contributing to high-quality economic development [3]

Economic Overview - The national economy is maintaining a stable and progressive development trend, with production supply remaining stable, employment overall stable, and prices showing improvement [1][4] Consumption and Investment - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with notable sales growth in upgraded products such as communication equipment and cultural office supplies [2][3] - Despite a slowdown in fixed asset investment growth, the physical workload of investments is increasing, and manufacturing investment continues to grow, indicating an ongoing optimization of investment structure [2][5] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive changes in October, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, reversing the previous month's decline [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also exhibited positive changes, with a month-on-month increase for the first time in October, driven by seasonal demand and rising international metal prices [8] Employment and Structural Changes - The employment situation remains generally stable, and there is a continuous trend of transformation and upgrading in various sectors [4][6] - The investment structure is optimizing, with traditional manufacturing undergoing upgrades and new manufacturing sectors expanding, supporting overall investment growth [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic performance in September remained stable, with marginal recovery in domestic demand driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, but performance varied significantly across industries [1][4] Industry Summary - **Upstream Resource and Raw Material Industries**: - Upstream resource products benefited from "anti-involution" policies and supply constraints, leading to increased demand and rising prices during the peak season [1][3] - Upstream raw materials like steel and building materials showed limited improvement due to low investment chain sentiment [1][3] - **Midstream Manufacturing Sector**: - Emerging manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing sectors experienced significant expansion in peak season due to domestic industrial upgrades and recovery in overseas manufacturing and investment activities [1][2][3] - **Downstream Consumer Sector**: - The real estate market showed weak recovery in transaction volumes, with retail sales of major consumer goods continuing to slow down, indicating insufficient performance during the peak season [1][3] Logic Behind Industry Divergence - The shift in policy focus since July has contributed to the divergence in performance between upstream resource products and downstream consumer sectors, with more emphasis on supply-side optimization and less direct stimulus for demand [2] - Domestic industrial upgrades and economic transformation, along with accelerated recovery in overseas manufacturing and investment, have led to the performance divergence between emerging manufacturing and traditional investment chain-related industries [2] September Industry Information Review - **Energy and Resource Sector**: - Coal production checks improved supply-demand dynamics, leading to price increases; metal supply disruptions and seasonal demand recovery also contributed to price rises [3] - **Real Estate Sector**: - Weak recovery in commodity housing transactions, particularly in first-tier cities, with overall real estate investment remaining low [3] - **Financial Sector**: - A-share trading activity reached new highs, with insurance companies seeing continued growth in premium income [3] - **Midstream Manufacturing Sector**: - Mechanical equipment sales showed strong growth, with heavy truck sales increasing further [3] - **Consumer Sector**: - Service consumption showed slight decline, while overall commodity consumption momentum weakened [3] - **TMT Sector**: - Increased activity in domestic and international AI and humanoid robotics sectors [3] - **New Energy Sector**: - Strong demand for energy storage, positive production trends for lithium batteries, and potential early mass production of solid-state batteries [3]

Core Insights - The Yangtze River Delta integration strategy addresses regional development imbalances and emphasizes industrial positioning and collaboration among localities [1][2] - The focus is on leveraging advanced technologies to enhance traditional industries and promote the integration of digital and manufacturing sectors [1][2] - There is a strong push for the development of emerging industries, particularly in digitalization and intelligent manufacturing, to improve responsiveness and adaptability [2][3] Group 1 - The Yangtze River Delta integration strategy serves as a crucial tool for addressing regional development disparities [1] - Jiangsu and surrounding areas are clarifying their industrial positioning and fostering a collaborative development model [1] - The strategy emphasizes the importance of refining traditional industries through advanced technologies and industrial integration [1][2] Group 2 - There is a significant focus on seizing opportunities from the new technological and industrial revolution, particularly in digital and intelligent transformations [2] - The development of "new infrastructure" such as 5G networks and data centers is prioritized to support emerging manufacturing industries [2] - The strategy aims to build a self-controlled industrial system while recognizing the importance of global value chains [2][3] Group 3 - The Yangtze River Delta aims to enhance supply-side structural reforms through better resource utilization and regional cooperation [3] - There is a need for improved communication and coordination among regions to address planning bottlenecks [3] - The strategy seeks to achieve breakthroughs in transportation connectivity, energy cooperation, industrial innovation, and information networks [3]

Core Viewpoint - China's manufacturing sector is transitioning towards high-quality development, emphasizing technological self-reliance and innovation to enhance industrial capabilities [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, the added value of China's manufacturing industry increased by 7.0%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing growing by 10.2% and 9.5% respectively [4]. - The production of 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots saw significant increases of 43.1%, 36.2%, and 35.6% respectively [4]. Group 2: Innovation and Development - China is moving from being a global manufacturing hub to a global innovation center, with R&D expenditure expected to reach 2.68% of GDP by 2024, surpassing the EU average [4]. - Corporate investment in R&D accounts for over 77% of total R&D spending, highlighting the role of enterprises in driving innovation [4]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - The focus on technological innovation and industrial upgrading is crucial for economic transformation, with an emphasis on integrating technology and industry to foster new productive forces [5][6]. - The government is implementing reforms to stimulate the economy and enhance innovation, including the introduction of the Private Economy Promotion Law and the establishment of a unified national market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing industry is a crucial pillar of the national economy, and its development is essential for building a strong material and technological foundation for Chinese-style modernization. Emphasis is placed on maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, enhancing technological empowerment, and promoting independent innovation [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Manufacturing - Technological advancements have historically been key determinants of the manufacturing sector's share in the economy, with significant revolutions occurring in the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries that transformed production efficiency and expanded the manufacturing landscape [2]. - The 18th-century mechanization revolution led to significant changes in traditional industries, while the 19th-century electrification revolution further solidified manufacturing's dominant position in the economy [2]. Group 2: Current Technological Revolution - The current wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation is characterized by rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and biotechnology, which are driving new industrial growth and economic development [3]. - Digital and green technologies are increasingly penetrating traditional manufacturing, revitalizing the sector and enhancing its role in economic growth and employment [3]. Group 3: Advantages of China's Manufacturing Sector - China holds significant advantages in maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, including a high global innovation index ranking and a large domestic market that fosters active manufacturing activities [4]. - The country is transitioning from "catching up" to "keeping pace" and even "leading" in key technology areas such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and robotics, which are crucial for elevating its manufacturing sector within the global value chain [4]. Group 4: Strategies for High-Quality Development - To promote high-quality development in manufacturing, strategies should focus on enhancing technological empowerment, optimizing resource allocation, and reducing the overall costs and tax burdens for manufacturing enterprises [5]. - On the demand side, fostering new consumption scenarios and integrating modern manufacturing with service industries can create new growth opportunities and improve the overall efficiency of the sector [6].