泉果基金今晨发布月度观点指出，在AI领域，随着存量芯片的逐渐增加，AI模型的迭代速度明显加 速，而模型分化已经是一个显性趋势，选择To B 还是 To C是不同 AI labs的战略选择。1月吸人眼球的 是Clawdbot的出圈，一方面揭示大模型已经有很强的能力，agent产品如果有合适的产品形态，会迅速 被人们所接受，另一方面，爆火背后也揭示了开发者们对开源、离线模型应用的渴求。 展望中期，预计短期情绪过热后的价格调整难以改变贵金属（核心股）和有色金属（核心股）向上的趋 势，美国的债务问题、央行购金的趋势、铜铝在新一轮供给受限的产能周期中向上的趋势预计仍将持 续，我们将密切保持关注。 泉果基金既对2026年权益市场持乐观的态度，又对市场可能存在的风险事件保持警惕并密切跟踪。因 此，在投资时保持积极的仓位并适度分散，保留灵活性，以保有及时应对的能力。具体到行业配置层 面： （1）AI为核心的科技创新仍然是市场的主线，因为AI仍然以超预期的速度在发展：模型在进化，应用 在不断深入B端和C端，我们预计形成商业闭环的应用会越来越多。与此同时，AI模型和应用的发展使 得算力（核心股）等基础设施还是行业发展的瓶颈，从G ...

东方财富证券首席策略分析师陈果表示，2026年市场虽然可能有波动，但牛市仍在，整体策略可概括 为"踏浪逐牛"。潜在超预期因素包括中国企业盈利修复、AI（人工智能）产业进展及中美务实合作的可 能性。 他提醒，在风险层面，市场波动或将源于美国再通胀与AI商业化进程的博弈，投资者需灵活应对。战 略布局上，建议投资者把握逢低配置机会；若外部环境恶化（如AI发展叙事受挫），则可转向内需政 策加码的相关主线。 （文章来源：证券时报） 陈果表示，2025年面对房地产等内需老经济下行及外部关税挑战，中国股市仍走出"信心重估牛"。这得 益于多领域"DeepSeek事件"，让市场重新认识到中国新经济的活力与AI全球竞争力。 他表示，进入2026年，配置上建议把握当前确定性较高的两大方面：一是AI成长板块，二是受益于商 品价格回暖的周期板块。若外部环境变化，则内需板块机会或将上升。具体聚焦三大线索：一是AI泛 科技链（如半导体、海外算力、有色、电网设备、端侧AI等）；二是供需有望反转的周期行业（如海 风、储能、锂电设备、光伏、化工以及油/煤领域等）；三是出海优势方向（如工程机械、创新药）。 ...

Group 1 - The overseas computing power industry chain remains highly prosperous, with stronger resonance in the fundamentals of the related industry chain [1] - In China, the AI industry and AIDC industry chain are expected to maintain high prosperity due to advancements in AI technology and multimodal progress, with 2025 anticipated to be a pivotal year for AI infrastructure competition and application implementation [1] - Huawei has deployed over 300 sets of the Atlas series supernodes, with plans to launch the Atlas 950 SuperPoD supporting 8192 Ascend cards, achieving a computing power of 8 EFLOPS FP8, and the Atlas 960 SuperPoD with a planned 15488 cards [1] Group 2 - The satellite internet industry is experiencing dynamic developments, which are expected to have a catalytic effect [1] - The artificial intelligence ETF from Guotai (159388) tracks the entrepreneurial board AI index (970070), which has a fluctuation of 20%, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the AI sector within the entrepreneurial board market [1] - The index focuses on the innovation capability and growth potential of China's emerging technology industry, covering representative enterprises in the AI field [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the profitability pressure faced by the North Exchange in Q2 2025, primarily due to overseas disturbances and high fixed asset growth, with a forecasted turning point in the second half of the year [3][8]. - The technology manufacturing sector is leading the growth, driven by a combination of cyclical recovery and AI industry trends, while consumer sectors show a mixed performance [3][8]. - The report suggests three strategies to identify high-growth opportunities: selecting companies with sustained revenue growth, those with upward revisions in profit forecasts, and those with high contract liabilities and advance payments [3][8]. Summary by Sections Profitability Analysis - As of Q2 2025, the North Exchange reported a revenue growth rate of +4.9% and a net profit growth rate of -16.6%, indicating significant profitability challenges [8]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to a sharp drop in export growth to the U.S., with over 50% of companies experiencing negative net profit growth [8]. - Fixed asset growth reached a historical high of +30.2%, contributing to the pressure on profitability, with a gross margin of 22.4% [8]. Industry Structure - The technology manufacturing sector is experiencing high growth, with key industries such as computing, telecommunications, and electrical equipment showing positive trends [8]. - The report notes a structural recovery in midstream manufacturing, particularly in traditional robotics and engineering machinery, alongside emerging industries [8]. - Consumer sectors are experiencing a mixed recovery, with agriculture and forestry showing potential for improvement [8]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends identifying companies with consistent upward trends in revenue and net profit growth over the past four quarters, highlighting specific companies like Kaiter and Fujida [3][8]. - It also suggests focusing on companies with upward revisions in profit forecasts, such as Shuguang Shuchuang and Naconoer, which have seen significant increases in expected net profit growth [3][8]. - Companies with high contract liabilities and advance payments, like Kangnong Agriculture and Kun工科技, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3][8].

Group 1 - The AI computing power sector is experiencing sustained high prosperity, becoming a significant market focus, with strong fundamentals in the overseas computing power industry chain [1] - The domestic AIDC industry chain maintains high prosperity, with expectations that 2025 will be a pivotal year for AI infrastructure competition and application implementation in China [1] - Recent advancements in satellite internet are noteworthy, representing a promising future direction [1] Group 2 - Core segments of AI computing power, such as optical modules/devices, liquid cooling, and domestic servers/switches, continue to benefit, with data center demand expected to grow significantly driven by computing power [1] - The domestic offshore wind industry is accelerating its recovery, with emerging overseas opportunities for leading submarine cable manufacturers [1] - Breakthroughs in hollow core fiber technology have reduced attenuation to 0.2 dB/km, providing new pathways for ultra-high-speed communication [1] Group 3 - The low-orbit satellite network is advancing rapidly, with China's GW constellation plan aiming to launch 12,992 satellites to build an integrated 6G network [1] - Emerging directions such as information technology and low-altitude economy are also showing positive dynamics [1] - The Guotai AI ETF (159388) tracks the ChiNext AI Index (970070), which can experience daily fluctuations of up to 20%, reflecting the overall performance of AI-related listed companies in the ChiNext market [1]

Group 1 - The wind power industry saw a significant increase in new installations, reaching 26.32 GW in May, a year-on-year growth of 801%. Cumulatively, from January to May, new installations totaled 46.28 GW, up 134% year-on-year. Large-scale equipment deliveries in Q2 are expected to support the performance of the industry chain [1] - The solar power sector added 197.85 GW of new installations from January to May, marking a nearly 150% year-on-year increase. In May alone, 92.92 GW was added, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 105.48%. However, component production in June is expected to decline by 18%-20%, with domestic component inventory nearing 50 GW [1] - The offshore wind sector is anticipated to see improved performance as the "Marine Power Nation" strategy is enhanced and projects are rapidly advanced, with related companies expected to realize quarterly earnings [1] Group 2 - The 136 document has been officially issued in regions like Mengxi, detailing the承接方案 for the power grid sector, which is gradually refining the mechanism for new energy participation in the electricity market. The ultra-high voltage sector is expected to enter a catalytic phase [1] - The Carbon Neutrality 50 ETF tracks the Environmental 50 Index, which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. This index selects 50 listed companies from the A-share market involved in environmental equipment, environmental governance, and clean energy, reflecting the overall performance of the environmental industry [1] - The Environmental 50 Index is characterized by high industry concentration and strong growth potential, effectively representing the development trends of the environmental industry [1]

Group 1 - The Iranian-Israeli ceasefire has alleviated concerns about closing the Strait, leading to a significant drop in oil prices and a surge in the stock market [1] - The market anticipates a 25% probability of a rate cut in July, up from 21%, with a 60% probability for September [3] - Financial sectors, including brokerage and insurance, are benefiting from policy expectations, pushing indices to new short-term highs [4] Group 2 - High growth sectors for Q2 include overseas AI computing, motorcycle exports, and innovative pharmaceuticals, driven by increased demand and capacity expansion [5] - Specific companies showing significant profit growth include Daikin Heavy Industries in offshore wind, Longxin General Motors in motorcycles, and various players in the optical module sector [6] - Storage and lithium battery equipment sectors are showing signs of improvement, although they are categorized as left-side fundamentals, indicating potential for longer recovery times [8] Group 3 - The military industry remains highly unpredictable, with potential order improvements noted but lacking specific company representation [11] - The current stock-bond yield spread is at 6.14%, indicating a higher relative value for stocks compared to historical averages [14]