Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that July's export indicators show signs of improvement, particularly in exports to emerging countries, with a marginal increase of 8% in foreign trade port cargo volume since July [2][8][112] - The foreign trade port container throughput in July 2025 increased by 8.9% year-on-year, indicating a potential short-term improvement in actual export volume [2][8][112] - The container cargo volume from China to Vietnam rose significantly, reaching over 60% year-on-year, while the volume to the United States declined [2][13][112] Group 2 - Container shipping rates have been declining since July, with the CCFI composite index dropping 4.8% over three weeks, reflecting various factors including export demand and shipping capacity [3][21][113] - The relative price changes in shipping routes indicate better export performance to emerging countries compared to the U.S., with the price ratio of Southeast Asia and East-West Africa routes increasing [3][32][113] Group 3 - Production indicators suggest a rebound in export-related production, particularly in the consumption and metallurgy chains, with a 0.5% increase in export production indicators in July [4][5][114] - The external sales of crude steel and polyester filament maintained positive growth, indicating resilience in related industries [4][5][114] Group 4 - Processing trade imports, which lead exports by about one month, increased by 3.3% in June, suggesting a potential rise in exports in July to around 8% [6][92][100] - The Yiwu small commodity export price index remains high, supporting higher growth rates in cross-border exports to Europe and the UK [6][95][100] Group 5 - Overall, the July export production index increased by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a continuation of export improvement [5][85][115] - The weighted year-on-year growth of production indicators related to foreign trade aligns well with actual export performance, suggesting a positive outlook for July exports [5][85][115]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in profits is primarily due to increased cost and expense pressures, with short-term profit recovery remaining highly uncertain [3][72][74] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In May, industrial profits fell sharply by 11.9 percentage points year-on-year to 9%, with profit margins declining due to rising cost and expense pressures [3][72][74] - The cumulative revenue growth for industrial enterprises was 2.7% year-on-year, down from 3.2% previously, while cumulative profit showed a decline of 1.1% compared to a previous increase of 1.4% [2][8][71] - The actual operating income growth rate fell by 1.2 percentage points to 4.2%, contributing only 3.4% to overall profit growth [3][72][74] Cost Structure - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.9%, an increase of 40 basis points year-on-year, with the coal and steel sectors experiencing a notable rise in cost rates [3][17][72] - The cost rate for the coal and metallurgy chain increased significantly, reflecting a rise in upstream costs due to falling coal and steel prices [3][17][72] Sector Performance - The coal and metallurgy chain's revenue growth turned negative, declining by 2.8 percentage points to -0.6% due to weak equipment updates and a slowdown in real estate infrastructure [4][73] - The petrochemical sector also saw a significant revenue decline, while the consumer manufacturing chain experienced a slight recovery, with revenue growth rising by 0.1 percentage points to 7.8% [4][73] Inventory Trends - The nominal inventory growth for industrial enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.5%, indicating a need for further recovery in terminal demand [6][59][74] - Actual inventory, excluding price factors, also fell by 0.1 percentage points to 7.0%, with downstream inventory growth showing a decline [6][59][74] Future Outlook - The coal and steel prices are expected to remain weak, impacting the profitability of the coal and metallurgy chain, with short-term profit recovery facing significant uncertainty [4][33][73] - Despite the challenges, the long-term trend of profit recovery remains intact, supported by ongoing domestic demand recovery [4][33][73]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in profits is primarily due to increased cost and expense pressures, with short-term profit recovery remaining highly uncertain [3][72]. Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In May, industrial profits saw a substantial year-on-year decline of 11.9 percentage points to 9%, driven by rising cost and expense pressures [3][72]. - The contribution of actual operating revenue to profit growth decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2 percentage points to 4.2%, contributing only 3.4% to overall profit growth [3][72]. - The overall revenue growth for industrial enterprises fell by 1.8 percentage points to 0.8% in May, with significant declines in sectors such as agricultural products, chemical fibers, and rubber plastics [49][74]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Profit Margin - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.9%, up 40 basis points year-on-year, with the coal and steel sector experiencing a notable increase in cost rates [17][72]. - The cost rate for the coal and metallurgy chain rose significantly, reflecting a recovery in upstream costs due to falling coal and steel prices, while downstream improvements were limited [17][72]. - The profit margin for industrial enterprises decreased, with a year-on-year drop of 10.1 percentage points, indicating heightened pressure on profitability [36][74]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand - Inventory growth slightly declined, with nominal inventory down 0.4 percentage points to 3.5% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in demand recovery [59][74]. - Actual inventory, excluding price factors, also fell, down 0.1 percentage points to 7.0% year-on-year, suggesting a need for further demand improvement [59][74]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The coal and metallurgy chain's revenue growth turned negative, declining by 2.8 percentage points to -0.6% due to weak equipment updates and a slowdown in real estate infrastructure [4][73]. - In contrast, the consumer manufacturing chain saw a slight revenue increase, up 0.1 percentage points to 7.8% year-on-year, supported by domestic demand [4][73].

Core Viewpoint - April's profit growth is primarily driven by short-term improvements in costs and expenses, but attention is needed on potential profit decline pressures in the third quarter due to tariff disturbances [3][76]. Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In April, industrial profits increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.9%, mainly due to improved cost and expense pressures [3][9]. - The contribution of costs and expenses to overall profit improved, with costs contributing +2.7 percentage points and expenses +0.5 percentage points, while other losses contributed negatively [3][9]. - Actual operating revenue showed resilience, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, contributing 4.9% to overall profit growth [3][9]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Industry Performance - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 86%, with a year-on-year marginal decline of 12.6 basis points [3][17]. - Downstream consumer manufacturing industries saw a cost rate increase of 59.7 basis points to 84.3%, which was significantly lower than seasonal trends [3][17]. - In contrast, the petrochemical and metallurgy chains experienced weaker cost performance, with respective cost rates rising to 86.5% and declining to 87% [3][17]. Group 3: Revenue Support from Infrastructure and Exports - Benefiting from infrastructure investment and export boosts, the coal and metallurgy chains, along with downstream consumer industries, provided significant revenue support [4][27]. - The actual revenue growth rate fell by 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, with the petrochemical industry experiencing a notable decline of 3 percentage points to 2.1% [4][27]. - The consumer manufacturing chain maintained a relatively high revenue growth rate of 7.8%, supported by short-term export boosts [4][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Uncertainties - Future profit recovery remains uncertain due to potential lagging effects of tariffs and low capacity utilization in mid and downstream sectors [4][33]. - Historical data indicates that profit margins have a greater impact on profits than revenue, with current low capacity utilization keeping consumer manufacturing cost rates high [4][33]. - Previous experiences suggest that post-tariff implementation may lead to declines in asset turnover and rising fixed costs, resulting in profit growth rates declining more than revenue [4][33]. Group 5: Regular Tracking of Industrial Performance - Industrial enterprise profits showed a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points, primarily due to improved profit margins [5][36]. - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises remained stable, with significant increases in the food and beverage sectors [5][50]. - Inventory growth slightly declined, indicating that terminal demand still requires further recovery [5][61].

Core Viewpoint - The profit recovery in April is primarily due to short-term improvements in costs and expenses, but attention should be paid to the downward pressure on profits in the third quarter due to tariff disturbances [3][76]. Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In April, industrial profits increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.9%, driven by improvements in cost and expense pressures [3][9]. - The contribution of costs and expenses to overall profit improved, with costs contributing +2.7 percentage points and expenses +0.5 percentage points [3][76]. - Actual operating revenue showed resilience, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, contributing 4.9% to overall profit growth [3][9]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Industry Performance - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 86%, with a year-on-year marginal decline of 12.6 basis points [3][17]. - The cost rate for downstream consumer manufacturing increased by 59.7 basis points to 84.3%, which is significantly lower than seasonal trends [3][17]. - The petrochemical and metallurgy sectors showed weaker cost performance compared to previous years, with cost rates rising by 37.3 basis points to 86.5% and declining by 18.2 basis points to 87%, respectively [3][17]. Group 3: Revenue Support from Infrastructure and Exports - The coal and metallurgy sectors, along with downstream consumer industries, provided significant support to revenue due to infrastructure investment and export activities [4][27]. - The actual revenue growth rate fell by 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, with the petrochemical sector experiencing a notable decline of 3 percentage points to 2.1% [4][27]. - The consumer manufacturing sector maintained a relatively high revenue growth rate of 7.8%, supported by short-term export activities [4][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Uncertainties - The impact of tariffs on profitability may manifest with a lag, and the low capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors adds uncertainty to future profit recovery [4][33]. - Historical data indicates that the impact of profit margins on profits is greater than that of revenue, with current low capacity utilization keeping cost rates high [4][33]. - Previous experiences suggest that after tariff implementation, profit growth may decline more sharply than revenue due to increased fixed costs and reduced asset turnover [4][33]. Group 5: Regular Tracking of Industrial Enterprises - Industrial enterprise profits showed a recovery, primarily benefiting from improved profit margins, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [5][78]. - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises remained stable, with significant increases in the food and beverage sectors, where revenue growth rates rose by 8.8%, 7.0%, and 2.9% year-on-year [5][50]. - Inventory growth slightly declined, indicating that terminal demand still requires further recovery, with nominal inventory down 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% [5][61].

Revenue and Profit Trends - In April 2025, industrial enterprises' cumulative revenue increased by 3.2% year-on-year, down from 3.4% in the previous month[7] - Cumulative profit for April 2025 rose by 1.4% year-on-year, an increase from 0.8% in March[7] - The profit growth rate for April improved by 0.4 percentage points to 2.9% compared to the previous month[2] Cost and Profit Margin Analysis - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 86% in April, showing a marginal decline of 12.6 basis points year-on-year[15] - The contribution of cost improvement to overall profit was +2.7 percentage points, while expenses contributed +0.5 percentage points[2] - The profit margin for downstream consumer manufacturing improved, with a cost rate increase of 59.7 basis points to 84.3%[15] Sector Performance Insights - The coal and metallurgy sectors, along with downstream consumer industries, provided significant revenue support due to infrastructure investment and export activities[20] - The actual revenue growth rate for the petrochemical sector fell by 3 percentage points to 2.1% in April, while the consumer manufacturing sector maintained a relatively high growth rate of 7.8%[20] - Foreign and joint-stock enterprises saw profit growth rates increase by 1.7 and 0.4 percentage points to 1.9% and 4.1%, respectively, while state-owned enterprises experienced a significant decline of 10.2 percentage points to -17.4%[32]

Core Viewpoint - April's profit growth is primarily driven by short-term improvements in costs and expenses, but attention is needed on potential profit decline pressures in the third quarter due to tariff disturbances [3][76]. Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In April, industrial profits increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.9%, mainly due to improved cost and expense pressures [3][9]. - The contribution of costs and expenses to overall profit improved, with costs contributing +2.7 percentage points and expenses +0.5 percentage points, while other losses contributed negatively [3][9]. - Actual operating revenue showed resilience, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, contributing 4.9% to overall profit growth [3][9]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Industry Performance - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 86%, with a year-on-year marginal decline of 12.6 basis points [3][17]. - Downstream consumer manufacturing industries saw a cost rate increase of 59.7 basis points to 84.3%, which was significantly lower than seasonal trends [3][17]. - In contrast, the petrochemical and metallurgy chains experienced weaker cost rate performance compared to previous years, with respective increases of 37.3 basis points to 86.5% and a decrease of 18.2 basis points to 87% [3][17]. Group 3: Revenue Support from Infrastructure and Export - Benefiting from infrastructure investment and export boosts, the coal and metallurgy chains, along with downstream consumer industries, provided significant revenue support [4][27]. - The actual revenue growth rate fell by 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, with the petrochemical industry experiencing a notable decline of 3 percentage points to 2.1% [4][27]. - The "export rush" temporarily supported revenue growth in the consumer manufacturing chain, which saw a year-on-year decline of 1.5 percentage points to 7.8% [4][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Uncertainties - Future profit recovery remains uncertain due to potential lagging effects of tariffs and low capacity utilization in mid- and downstream sectors [4][33]. - Historical data indicates that profit margins have a greater impact on profits than revenue, with current low capacity utilization keeping consumer manufacturing cost rates high [4][33]. - Past experiences suggest that post-tariff implementation may lead to declines in asset turnover and rising fixed costs, causing profit growth to fall more sharply than revenue [4][33]. Group 5: Regular Tracking of Industrial Enterprises - Industrial enterprise profits showed a recovery, primarily due to improved profit margins, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [5][78]. - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises remained stable, with significant increases in the food and beverage sector, where revenue growth rates rose by 8.8, 7.0, and 2.9 percentage points for food, alcohol, and agricultural products, respectively [5][50]. - Inventory growth slightly declined, indicating that terminal demand still requires further recovery, with nominal inventory down 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% [5][61].

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 2025年3月，工企营收累计同比3.4%、前值2.8%；利润累计同比0.8%、前值-0.3%。3月末，产成 品存货同比4.2%、前值4.2%。 核心观点：利润回升主要源于营收改善，而成本压力等中期约束仍在。 3月利润增速回升主要源于营收改善，其他损益、费用等短期指标也有贡献；而成本压力等中期约束有所 增大。 3月，工业利润当月同比回升2.8pct至2.5%。拆分结构看，利润回升主要源于营收改善，实际营收 支撑利润同比上行6.2%。利润率的贡献主要体现在费用、其他损益（投资收益、营业税金及附加等杂项 支出）等短期指标回升，带动利润同比上行3.8%、0.3%。相比之下，成本对利润仍然构成较大约束，拖 累整体利润下行5.9%。 3月，营收增速回升较大的是煤炭冶金链与下游消费行业，主要受益于基建提速及以旧换新政策拉动。 分结构看，3月基建提速支撑冶金产业链实际营收改善幅度较大，当月同比较前月回升2.5pct至6 ...

作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 2025年3月，工企营收累计同比3.4%、前值2.8%；利润累计同比0.8%、前值-0.3%。3月末，产成 品存货同比4.2%、前值4.2%。 核心观点：利润回升主要源于营收改善，而成本压力等中期约束仍在。 3月利润增速回升主要源于营收改善，其他损益、费用等短期指标也有贡献；而成本压力等中期约束有所 增大。 3月，工业利润当月同比回升2.8pct至2.5%。拆分结构看，利润回升主要源于营收改善，实际营收 支撑利润同比上行6.2%。利润率的贡献主要体现在费用、其他损益（投资收益、营业税金及附加等杂项 支出）等短期指标回升，带动利润同比上行3.8%、0.3%。相比之下，成本对利润仍然构成较大约束，拖 累整体利润下行5.9%。 3月，营收增速回升较大的是煤炭冶金链与下游消费行业，主要受益于基建提速及以旧换新政策拉动。 分结构看，3月基建提速支撑冶金产业链实际营收改善幅度较大，当月同比较前月回升2.5pct至6.3%；以 旧换新政策带动国内商品消费积极改善，也对消费制造业营收有拉动，行业实际营收增速同比边际上行 ...