PMI 季节性回落，一季度力争开门稳 ——2026 年 2 月 PMI 分析 2026 年 3 月 4 日 国家统计局 3 月 4 日发布数据：2026 年 2 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.0%，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点。建筑业商务活动指数为 48.2%（前值 48.8%）； 服务业商务活动指数为 49.7%（前值 49.5%）。 核心观点：整体来看，2 月 PMI 回落主要受春节假期等季节性因素扰动，供需两 端均出现阶段性放缓，生产活动与订单指标同步回落，但幅度基本符合历史季节性 规律。从结构上看，电子通信等新动能行业仍保持较强景气度，而纺织服装、汽车 等传统行业需求仍偏弱，制造业内部呈现一定分化。价格方面，上游原材料价格指 数边际回落，出厂价格保持稳定，成本与售价之间的缺口有所收敛，若该趋势延续， 将对工业企业利润修复形成一定支撑。库存方面，产成品库存下降而原材料库存小 幅回升，整体库存仍处于波动状态，企业普遍采取"以销定产"的谨慎策略，库存 维持在相对紧平衡区间。展望未来，随着春节因素逐步消退，3 月制造业生产活动 预计会修复，生产指数和新订单指数预计将有所回升。外需方面，OECD ...

（来源：中国银河宏观） 国家统计局3月4日发布数据：2026年2月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。建筑业商务活动指数为48.2%（前值 48.8%）；服务业商务活动指数为49.7%（前值49.5%）。 核心观点：整体来看，2月PMI回落主要受春节假期等季节性因素扰动，供需两端均出现阶段性放缓，生产活动与订单指标同步回落，但幅度基本符合历 史季节性规律。从结构上看，电子通信等新动能行业仍保持较强景气度，而纺织服装、汽车等传统行业需求仍偏弱，制造业内部呈现一定分化。价格方 面，上游原材料价格指数边际回落，出厂价格保持稳定，成本与售价之间的缺口有所收敛，若该趋势延续，将对工业企业利润修复形成一定支撑。库存方 面，产成品库存下降而原材料库存小幅回升，整体库存仍处于波动状态，企业普遍采取"以销定产"的谨慎策略，库存维持在相对紧平衡区间。展望未来， 随着春节因素逐步消退，3月制造业生产活动预计会修复，生产指数和新订单指数预计将有所回升。外需方面，OECD综合领先目前指向到6月份我国出口 累计同比延续温和上行，意味着外需仍具有韧性；内需则仍有赖于政策进一步发力以及终端消费和投资需求的 ...

Core Insights - The overall profit growth of industrial enterprises in 2025 showed significant fluctuations but maintained a long-term positive trend, with a steady recovery in the profit foundation of enterprises [3][15]. Group 1: Profit Growth Overview - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 73,982 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with December showing a 5.3% increase year-on-year [1][15]. - The profit growth rate for December 2025 rebounded sharply from -13.1% in the previous month to 5.3%, an increase of 18.4 percentage points [2]. - For the entire year, the profit growth rate exhibited a "low first, high later, and fluctuating" trend, improving from -3.3% in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - In the mining sector, profits decreased by 26.2% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month, indicating a continuous improvement over five months [6]. - The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 5% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month, with upstream raw material manufacturing profits growing by 10.6% [6][7]. - The equipment manufacturing sector contributed significantly to overall industrial profit growth, with a profit increase of 7.7%, driving a 2.8 percentage point increase in total profits for industrial enterprises [7]. Group 3: Inventory and Receivables - By the end of December, the nominal growth rate of finished goods inventory for industrial enterprises fell by 0.7 percentage points to 3.9%, indicating a reduction in inventory pressure due to improved sales [12]. - The average collection period for accounts receivable for industrial enterprises was 67.9 days, a decrease of 2.5 days from the previous value, reflecting improved cash flow management [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026, industrial profits are expected to continue their recovery trend, supported by stable domestic consumption growth, gradual stabilization of investment, and improved export quality [18]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to ease cost pressures on enterprises, further supporting profit improvements [18].

国家统计局1月27日发布数据显示，2025年，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额73982.0亿元人民币，比上年增长0.6%，扭转了连续三年下降态势。与此 同时，受益于价格改善和盈利能力走强，2025年12月份规模以上工业企业利润同比增长5.3%，增速大幅回升。 利润增速边际回暖 三大门类增速"两升一平" 新动能支撑作用明显 从三大门类看，2025年利润增速表现为"两升一平"。制造业增长5.0%，增速较2024年大幅回升8.9个百分点；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长 9.4%；采矿业下降26.2%。 "价格改善对冲了利润率边际回落的拖累，制造业利润延续正增长态势。"温彬分析称，其中，上游原材料制造业受益于价格改善，利润保持较快增长；中 游装备制造业利润保持较快增长，对工业利润形成重要支撑。采矿业利润总额同比下降，但在价格、利润率改善的共同作用下，降幅继续收窄，实现了连 续5个月改善。 值得关注的是，装备制造业和高技术制造业都为工业高质量发展提供坚实支撑。2025年，规模以上装备制造业利润较上年增长7.7%，拉动全部规模以上 工业企业利润增长2.8个百分点；规模以上高技术制造业利润较上年增长13.3%，高于 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the overall growth in industrial profits in China, with a 1.9% year-on-year increase from January to October, despite a 5.5% decline in October due to high base effects and rising financial costs [1] - In the mining sector, profits decreased by 27.8% year-on-year, although the decline was 1.5 percentage points less than the previous period; manufacturing profits increased by 7.7%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector saw a 9.5% increase [1] - Notable profit growth was observed in various industries, including non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling (14.0%), electricity and heat production (13.1%), and computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (12.8%) [1] Group 2 - The high-tech manufacturing sector also showed strong performance, with profits increasing by 8.0% year-on-year, surpassing the average growth rate of all industrial sectors by 6.1 percentage points [2] - Specific high-tech industries such as smart drone manufacturing and smart vehicle equipment manufacturing experienced remarkable profit growth of 116.1% and 114.9%, respectively [2] - Analysts suggest that while there is optimism in inventory cycles and production adjustments, external demand fluctuations and cost pressures remain potential uncertainties for industrial profit recovery [2][3] Group 3 - Future observations will focus on the pace of domestic demand expansion policies, which are expected to be continuously introduced to enhance economic growth [3] - The impact of external demand and geopolitical risks is also crucial, with ongoing US-China negotiations potentially providing support for external demand, which could positively influence industrial profits and production [3]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued an announcement to address disorderly competition in certain industries, proposing measures such as evaluating average industry costs, enhancing price regulation, and standardizing bidding behaviors to maintain fair competition [1][3] Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - From January to August, China's industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 4.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, which was better than Bloomberg's forecast of a 1.6% decline, reversing the downward trend in cumulative profits since May [1] - In August, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 20.4% year-on-year, indicating that government actions to address overcapacity and excessive competition are proving effective [1][3] Group 2: Price Index and Economic Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August showed a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, with the rate of decline narrowing compared to July, marking the first alleviation of factory deflation pressure in six months [3] - The chief statistician of the Industrial Department at the National Bureau of Statistics emphasized the need to further expand domestic demand and standardize competition to create favorable conditions for the sustained recovery of industrial profits [3] - The chief economist at Minsheng Bank noted that with ongoing efforts to combat "involution," market competition is gradually improving, and industrial profits are expected to continue a moderate recovery trend [3]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In August, industrial enterprises' profits increased by 20.4% year-on-year, marking a significant improvement compared to July and reaching a year-to-date high [1] - Cumulative profits from January to August showed a reversal from the continuous decline since May, with a total profit growth of 0.9% year-on-year [2] - The rebound in industrial profits is primarily attributed to a low base effect from the previous year, along with improved supply and demand dynamics driven by "anti-involution" policies [1][2] Group 2: Policy Impact on Nonferrous Metals Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a growth plan for the nonferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in value-added from 2025 to 2026 [2] - The plan aims to support high-end material innovation and green low-carbon transformation, which is expected to benefit the nonferrous metals supply chain, particularly in copper, aluminum, and lithium sectors [2] - The policy is anticipated to enhance market sentiment in related A-share sectors in the short term while promoting resource independence and industry upgrades in the long term [2] Group 3: Market Performance - On September 29, the three major A-share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.90% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 2.05% [3] - Non-bank financials, nonferrous metals, and electric equipment sectors led the gains, with increases of 3.84%, 3.78%, and 3.07% respectively [3] - A total of 3,576 stocks rose while 1,657 stocks declined, indicating a positive market sentiment overall [3] Group 4: Market Activity - The market turnover reached 21,781 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous trading day [4] - The margin trading balance reported at 24,244.58 billion, reflecting a decrease from the previous trading day [4]

Core Insights - In the first seven months of the year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 40,203.5 billion yuan, with operating income of 78.07 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [1] - In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1] - The manufacturing sector showed significant profit recovery, particularly in high-tech manufacturing, which saw profits grow by 18.9% in July, reversing a 0.9% decline in June [1] Manufacturing Sector Performance - The profit of the manufacturing sector increased by 6.8% year-on-year in July, with the growth rate accelerating by 5.4 percentage points compared to June [1] - The manufacturing profit growth contributed to a 3.6 percentage point increase in the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size compared to June [1] Raw Material and Consumer Goods Manufacturing - In the raw materials manufacturing sector, profits shifted from a 5.0% decline in June to a 36.9% increase in July, with the steel and petroleum processing industries turning profitable, achieving total profits of 18.09 billion yuan and 3.46 billion yuan, respectively [2] - Consumer goods manufacturing saw a decline of 4.7%, but the decline was narrower by 3.0 percentage points compared to June [2] High-Tech Manufacturing Growth - High-tech manufacturing profits grew rapidly, with the aerospace sector seeing a profit increase of 40.9% [3] - In the semiconductor sector, profits for integrated circuit manufacturing, semiconductor device manufacturing, and discrete semiconductor manufacturing grew by 176.1%, 104.5%, and 27.1%, respectively [3] Policy Impact on Profit Growth - The "Two New" policies have continued to drive profit growth in various industries, with significant increases in profits for electronic and electrical machinery manufacturing (87.9%), general parts manufacturing (15.3%), and specialized equipment for food and beverage production (11.3%) [4] - The "old-for-new" policy in consumer goods led to profit increases of 124.2% in computer manufacturing, 100.0% in smart drone manufacturing, and 29.7% in household cleaning appliances [4] Future Outlook - The industrial profit data indicates signs of stabilization, with expectations for continued moderate recovery in profits as extreme weather disruptions fade and supply-demand dynamics normalize [4] - The current profit improvements are more pronounced in structural optimization and quality enhancement rather than rapid demand expansion, necessitating attention to policy implementation effects and marginal changes in domestic and external demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial profit landscape in China shows signs of marginal recovery in June, with manufacturing profits turning positive, but overall industrial profits still face challenges due to insufficient demand and cost pressures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In June, profits of industrial enterprises reached 715.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, but the decline narrowed compared to May [1]. - For the first half of the year, profits totaled 3,436.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [1]. - Manufacturing profits improved from a 4.1% decline in May to a 1.4% increase in June, indicating a recovery trend [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Profits - The industrial production index increased by 6.8% year-on-year in June, driven by strong export performance and domestic demand during the 618 shopping festival [2]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year in June, continuing to exert pressure on profit margins [2]. - Profit margins for industrial enterprises averaged 5.15% in the first half of the year, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.26 percentage points [2]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The equipment manufacturing sector showed significant profit growth, with revenues increasing by 7.0% year-on-year in June and profits rising by 9.6% [4]. - The automotive industry experienced a remarkable profit increase of 96.8%, driven by promotional activities and investment returns [4]. - Mining sector profits faced a larger decline due to price weakness and falling profit margins [2][4]. Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - Recent government policies aim to stabilize employment and support industrial growth through various measures, including capacity replacement and technological upgrades [5]. - The continuation of demand expansion policies is expected to support profit recovery for industrial enterprises [5]. - The impact of "anti-involution" policies on market competition and profit margins will be crucial for future profitability [5].

Core Viewpoint - In June, China's industrial enterprises showed signs of profit recovery, particularly in new momentum industries like equipment manufacturing, signaling a positive trend in the real economy [1][2]. Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In June, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in China reached 715.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, but the decline narrowed significantly by 4.8 percentage points compared to May [1]. - The revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 1.0% year-on-year in June, maintaining the same growth rate as in May [1]. - For the first half of the year, revenue increased by 2.5% year-on-year, while profits decreased by 1.8%, indicating a widening decline compared to the first five months but a narrowing decline compared to the end of 2024 [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Profitability - The overall decline in profits for large-scale industrial enterprises has been attributed to external environmental shocks, ongoing elimination of outdated capacity, low Producer Price Index (PPI), and insufficient domestic demand [2]. - The average accounts receivable collection period for large-scale industrial enterprises was 69.8 days at the end of June, a decrease of 0.7 days from the end of May, indicating improved cash flow [2]. Group 3: Policy Impact and Sector Performance - The implementation of the "Regulations on Payment of Funds to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" since June 1 has improved overall collection efficiency for industrial enterprises, particularly benefiting private enterprises [3]. - In June, the profit growth rate for large-scale manufacturing enterprises shifted from a decline of 4.1% in May to an increase of 1.4%, driven by policies supporting equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries [3]. - Profits in the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 9.6% year-on-year in June, contributing significantly to the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises [3]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The manufacturing sector is advancing towards high-end, intelligent, and green production, with significant profit increases in high-end equipment manufacturing and green manufacturing sectors [4]. - The profit growth rates for specific industries, such as electronic materials and lithium-ion battery manufacturing, reached 68.1% and 72.8% respectively in June [4]. - Looking ahead, the recovery of industrial enterprise profits is expected to continue, supported by domestic demand expansion and regulatory policies aimed at stabilizing market competition [5].