Macro Analysis - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of stabilization in November, indicating a weak recovery driven by improved exports due to the easing of trade tensions between China and the US, with new export orders and small enterprise PMI significantly rebounding [2] - Seasonal disruptions from the October holiday have ended, leading to a rise in production and procurement indices [2] - Both raw material and finished product price indices have increased, suggesting an ongoing improvement in the supply-demand relationship for industrial goods [2] Strategy Insights - The market is expected to remain in a wide fluctuation phase, with a potential bull market direction, although short-term catalysts may be lacking [4] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock monthly stock picks for December include companies like Tencent Holdings, China Petroleum, and Haier Smart Home, indicating a focus on sectors with growth potential [3] Bond Market Overview - The total bond custody volume increased significantly in October, with a net increase in interest rate bonds and credit bonds, while financial bonds saw a net decrease [5] - The convertible bond market experienced slight adjustments, with high-priced and high-valuation convertible bonds facing pressure [6] - Credit bond issuance rose to 5,890.11 million yuan, reflecting a 1.34% increase week-on-week, with overall credit spreads trending upwards [7] Chemical Industry Insights - The signing of a major potash fertilizer contract at $348 per ton indicates a tight supply-demand situation, supporting the industry's positive outlook [11] - Oil prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production policies, with Brent and WTI prices reported at $62.32 and $58.48 per barrel respectively [12] Energy Sector Developments - The storage and hydrogen energy sectors are expected to see continued growth, with government support for market-driven adjustments and the promotion of hydrogen ammonia construction [13] Copper Industry Analysis - The China Copper Raw Material Negotiation Group has requested a 10% reduction in copper production capacity for 2026, indicating a tightening supply situation [14] Utility Sector Updates - The National Development and Reform Commission has released new pricing policies for electricity distribution, which may lead to a valuation recovery in the green electricity sector [15] Automotive Sector Performance - Pony.ai reported significant revenue growth in its Robotaxi segment, with expectations for continued expansion and improved profitability [16] - Li Auto's third-quarter performance was under pressure, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts, but the company remains optimistic about its market positioning [17] Apparel Industry Trends - Chow Tai Fook's sales growth turned positive in Q2, with a notable increase in revenue from priced jewelry, prompting an upward revision of profit forecasts [18] - Bosideng's revenue grew by 1.4% in the first half of the fiscal year, supported by stable growth in its branded down jacket business [19]

Group 1: Steel Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions" in February 2025, which is expected to help restore profitability in the steel sector to historical average levels [3] - The steel sector is undergoing a two-tier evaluation system for "standard enterprises" and "leading standard enterprises," aligning with the broader policy goal of better adapting supply-side to demand changes [3] Group 2: Non-ferrous Metals - The price of electric carbon has risen for the first time in five months, and the price of electrolytic cobalt has reached a one-month high, indicating a positive outlook for the metal new materials sector [4] - Lithium prices have dropped to around 60,000 yuan/ton, with potential for accelerated capacity exit; companies with cost advantages and resource expansion in the lithium sector are recommended for attention [4] - The export ban on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo has been extended for three months, and tungsten prices remain at their highest since 2013 [4] Group 3: Oil and Chemical Industry - In H1 2025, the oil market experienced significant volatility due to geopolitical events and OPEC+ production increases, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [5] - As of June 30, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $66.63 and $64.97 per barrel, reflecting declines of 11.0% and 9.6% respectively since the beginning of the year [5] Group 4: Construction and Building Materials - The scarcity of orbital frequency is driving competition, and the construction of low-orbit satellite constellations in China is entering an accelerated phase [6] - Shanghai Port has strategically positioned itself in the satellite energy system sector, having supported the launch of 15 satellites and over 40 sets in orbit, which is expected to benefit from the rapid development of low-orbit satellites [6] Group 5: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - In May, the number of pigs slaughtered increased, maintaining a micro-profit level for the industry [7] - As of July 4, the average price of external three-bred pigs was 15.35 yuan/kg, up 4.28% week-on-week, while the average price of 15 kg piglets was 31.33 yuan/kg, down 0.85% week-on-week [7] Group 6: Renewable Energy and Public Utilities - The "anti-involution" policy will be a key focus for government work in Q3 2025, with an emphasis on price strategies to combat deflation and assist local governments in debt reduction [6] - The market is closely watching whether outdated production capacity can exit quickly, with expectations for demand in H2 2025 or 2026 [6] Group 7: Automotive Industry - Wuxi Zhenhua has exceeded expectations in core customer orders, driven by both stamping and electroplating, leading to stable growth in performance [8] - Xiaomi's first SUV, the YU7, achieved over 289,000 pre-orders within one hour of its launch, indicating strong product and brand power [8] - Wuxi Zhenhua has established a stable partnership with Xiaomi, with the automotive sector expected to contribute significantly to the company's revenue [8]

Core Viewpoint - The core driver for the formation of a bull market is the recovery of the fundamentals, which is often amplified by liquidity easing and industrial trends. A comprehensive improvement in fundamentals typically leads to a bull market, while structural improvements in fundamentals, when combined with liquidity easing and industrial trends, can also foster a bull market. The future outlook suggests a gradual and moderate recovery in fundamentals, with macro and micro liquidity resonance and industrial upgrades expected to drive market growth [4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market has continued to show a fluctuating performance, with major broad-based indices experiencing a contraction in trading volume. As of last Friday (May 16, 2025), the timing indicators for major indices maintain a cautious outlook due to reduced trading volume. The ETF funds have seen a net outflow, indicating a continued profit-taking state in the market. The short-term market is showing reversal characteristics, with momentum and reversal effects switching rapidly over the past three weeks. Under the backdrop of continued liquidity easing, small-cap stocks are expected to remain dominant [5]. Group 2: Steel Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions" on February 8, 2025, establishing a two-tier evaluation for steel enterprises. This aligns with the broader policy goal of the National Development and Reform Commission to better adapt supply-side changes to demand. It is anticipated that the profitability of the steel sector may recover to historical average levels, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio of steel stocks may also see a corresponding recovery [6]. Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Updates - Tungsten prices have reached a nearly 10-month high, while uranium prices have increased for the first time in six months. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has risen for three consecutive weeks, with attention on the demand situation in 2025. Lithium prices have fallen below 80,000 yuan per ton, with potential for accelerated capacity clearance. The Bisie tin mine has ceased operations, leading to an optimistic outlook for tin prices [7]. Group 4: Copper Market Overview - Recent trade conflicts have eased, but the negative impacts of tariffs and trade disputes on the economy have yet to manifest, continuing to suppress copper price increases. Domestic electrolytic copper inventories have seen a low-level increase, possibly due to previous overstocking by domestic and foreign enterprises. Copper prices are expected to gradually rise with the introduction of domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [8]. Group 5: Renewable Energy Policy Developments - Shandong and Guangdong provinces have introduced implementation details for Document No. 136, which has garnered ongoing attention from the capital market regarding policy developments in more provinces. The core of the policy is to reflect electricity supply and demand through market-based pricing, thereby stabilizing the financing of renewable energy projects. The Shandong details indicate that the pricing for incremental projects will depend on current spot prices, while the Guangdong details stabilize expectations for new renewable energy installations, particularly favoring offshore wind projects [9]. Group 6: Medical Robotics Advancements - The commercialization process for exoskeleton robots in the medical rehabilitation field is expected to accelerate. These robots are primarily applied in three scenarios: spinal cord injury recovery, stroke rehabilitation, and aging assistance. The global market for exoskeleton robots is entering a period of rapid growth, and China's "14th Five-Year Plan" has included exoskeletons as a key development area for high-end medical equipment. Several regions have included certain rehabilitation exoskeletons in their insurance reimbursement scope, indicating a promising outlook for commercialization in this sector [9].