宏观流动性： 上周美元指数回升，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回落，通胀预期回落。离岸美元流动 性有所收紧，国内银行间资金面均衡，期限利差(10Y-1Y)走阔。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度有所回落，除科创 50 外，其余主要指数的波动率回升。行业上，化工、纺服、房地产、消费者服务、商 贸零售、轻工等板块交易热度在 80%分位数以上，电新、电子的波动率处于 80%历史分位数以上。 机构调研： 电子、医药、电新、机械、有色等板块调研热度居前，石油石化、房地产、非银等板块的调研热度环比仍在上升。 分析师预测： 全 A 的 25/26 年净利润预测同时被上调。行业上，金融地产、机械、军工、农林牧渔、钢铁等板块 25/26 年净利润预 测均被上调。指数上，中证 500、沪深 300 的 25/26 年净利润预测均被上调，创业板指、上证 50 则分别被下调/上调。 风格上，小盘成长、中盘价值的 25/26 年的净利润预测均被上调，小盘价值均被下调，中盘成长分别被上调/下调， 大盘成长/价值则分别被下调/上调。 北上活跃度回落，整体继续大幅净卖出 A 股 基于前 10 大活跃股口径， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing volatility, with major indices opening lower, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.56% and the ChiNext Index down 1.74% [1] - Sectors such as storage chips, CPO, phosphorus chemicals, and non-ferrous metals are leading the declines [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities suggests increasing positions in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and electric new energy as a better choice, emphasizing the importance of stable corporate overseas environments and AI developments [2] - The report indicates that over 60% of institutional holdings are concentrated in sectors influenced by AI narratives, and it recommends focusing on companies with rising ROE from low points [2] Group 3: Sector Recommendations - China Merchants Securities identifies non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials as cyclical sectors to consider for investment, driven by expectations of a cyclical upturn in 2026 [3] - The report highlights that price increases in commodities are concentrated in coal, non-ferrous metals, certain chemicals, and the renewable energy sector [3] Group 4: Recovery Opportunities - Industrial Securities emphasizes the importance of cyclical sectors like steel, chemicals, and building materials, while also exploring low-position technology growth opportunities [4] - The report notes that the tightening of overseas liquidity is unlikely to lead to systemic risks, and A-shares may remain resilient under stable economic and policy expectations [4] Group 5: Future Trends - CITIC Construction Investment predicts that resource products may become a new main investment direction in A-shares following the technology sector, with a focus on key resources and military industry [5] - The report highlights sectors such as new energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and military equipment as key areas of interest for future investment [5]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed [2][13] - The nominal and real yields of 10-year US Treasuries have decreased or remained unchanged, with inflation expectations also falling [2][19] - Offshore dollar liquidity has tightened, while domestic interbank liquidity remains balanced and slightly loose [2][19] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with the volatility of major indices showing mixed trends [3][25] - Trading heat in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electric vehicles, steel, electronics, automotive, and real estate remains above the 80th percentile [3][25] - The volatility of the communication and electronics sectors remains above the 80th historical percentile [3][31] Analyst Predictions - Analysts have continued to raise net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026 [4][43] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 has increased [4][43] - Sectors such as retail, finance, light industry, and public utilities have seen upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [4][43][44] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with overall net selling of A-shares [5][29] - In the top 10 active stocks, the trading volume ratio for sectors like non-ferrous metals, electronics, and banking has increased [5][32] - Northbound trading has shown net buying in sectors such as electronics, automotive, and electric vehicles, while net selling occurred in computing, pharmaceuticals, and communications [5][33] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has dropped to its lowest point since mid-September 2025 [6][35] - The main net buying in margin financing has been in sectors like non-ferrous metals, military, and pharmaceuticals [6][38] - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, steel, and public utilities has increased [6][38] Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to rise, with net subscriptions in ETFs persisting [8][45] - Actively managed equity funds have mainly increased positions in sectors like electronics, automotive, and media [8][46] - New fund establishment has seen a rebound, with both actively and passively managed funds experiencing growth [8][50]

Group 1 - The overall change in public fund holdings shows an increase in communication and banking sectors, while a decrease in food and beverage, and automotive sectors [1][8] - In Q2 2025, public funds increased their holdings in the top five industries: communication (up 2.5 percentage points), banking (up 1.2 percentage points), military industry (up 1.0 percentage points), non-banking financials (up 0.8 percentage points), and media (up 0.6 percentage points) [1][8] - The top five industries with decreased holdings were food and beverage (down 2.1 percentage points), automotive (down 1.5 percentage points), new energy (down 1.2 percentage points), home appliances (down 0.9 percentage points), and machinery (down 0.8 percentage points) [1][8] Group 2 - The report categorizes funds into four types: increasing, decreasing, adjusting, and extreme styles, highlighting distinct investment behaviors and strategies [7][13] - Increasing funds showed a preference for a "barbell" strategy, adding to components, communication devices, and chemical pharmaceuticals while reducing industrial metals, semiconductors, and automotive parts [17][18] - Decreasing funds focused on strengthening and balancing growth styles, increasing holdings in communication devices, communication services, and digital media while reducing investments in liquor, passenger vehicles, and automotive parts [17][18] Group 3 - Adjusting funds emphasized a growth-oriented value style, increasing investments in communication devices, biopharmaceuticals, and IT services while reducing holdings in semiconductors, consumer electronics, and social media [17][18] - Extreme style funds maintained their core competencies, increasing holdings in new energy and automotive parts while reducing passenger vehicles and state-owned banks [17][18] - The consensus for selling included sectors like passenger vehicles, social media, semiconductors, and industrial metals, while buying consensus included communication devices, banking shares, and chemical pharmaceuticals [17][18]