| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-09 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3909.52 | 13277.36 | 4598.22 | 14125.60 | 3891.24 | 1347.10 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.37 | -0.39 | -0.50 | -0.48 | 0.03 | -0.27 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7811.60 | 11227.92 | 4521.13 | 3682.99 | 5281.06 | 548.18 | 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月10日 宏观与策略 宏观快评:11 月进出口数据点评-高技术提速，新市场托底 行业与公司 家电行业周报（25 年第 49 周）：石头科技黑五大促实现强劲增长，传 统扫地机巨头 iRobot 面临危机 机械行业周报:制造成长周报（第 37 期）-特朗普政府聚焦机器人行业， Tiktok 拟投资 380 亿美元建数据中心 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The sulfur industry is primarily driven by by-product supply, with downstream applications in traditional agriculture and new energy sectors [1] - Global sulfur supply is predominantly from refining, natural gas, and coal chemical desulfurization, with natural sulfur accounting for less than 2% [2] - The sulfur production process involves three main pathways: sulfuric acid production (40%), smelting acid (40%), and sulfur iron ore acid (20%), with sulfuric acid being a significant component [2] Group 2: Demand Analysis - The agricultural sector accounts for the highest demand (approximately 60%), primarily for producing monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and compound fertilizers, with a projected MAP production of 9.69 million tons in 2024 (+4%) [3] - The new energy sector is experiencing the fastest growth, with sulfuric acid used for lithium iron phosphate materials and nickel intermediate projects, expected to increase its demand share from 5% in 2024 to 8% in 2025 [3] - Industrial applications, including titanium dioxide and caprolactam, represent 6%-7% of demand, with titanium dioxide production expected to decline by 3% due to anti-dumping measures, while caprolactam production is projected to increase sulfur demand by 160,000 tons [3] Group 3: Global Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global sulfur market is characterized by demand growth outpacing supply, driven by new energy [4] - Global sulfur production is expected to reach 80.7 million tons in 2024 (+2%), with the majority of the increase coming from the Middle East and Northeast Asia, while Russia is expected to reduce production by approximately 1 million tons due to refinery attacks [4] - Demand is projected to reach 81 million tons in 2024 (+5%), with Asia contributing 78% of the new capacity, particularly from China and Indonesia [4] Group 4: China's Market Analysis - China's sulfur supply and demand are tightly balanced, with prices reaching historical highs and inventory levels low [5] - Domestic production is expected to be 9.82 million tons from January to October 2024 (+7%), with imports at 8.61 million tons (+1%), shifting towards non-mainstream sources [6] - Apparent consumption is projected to grow by 13%, with industrial-grade MAP and lithium iron phosphate showing significant increases in demand [6] Group 5: Price and Inventory Trends - Current spot prices are at 3,800 RMB/ton (historical high), with port inventory at 2.2 million tons, below the reasonable level of 2.4 million tons [7] - Prices are supported by external market dynamics and low inventory levels, with increases driven by geopolitical tensions and high smelting acid prices [7] Group 6: Future Demand and Supply Outlook - Future demand growth is expected to be concentrated in new energy and Southeast Asia, while traditional agricultural demand may be suppressed by high prices [8] - The global demand increment from 2025 to 2026 is estimated at around 4 million tons, with supply only able to increase by 2 million tons, indicating a long-term supply-demand imbalance [8] Group 7: Competitive Landscape - The price support from smelting acid and regional demand differentiation is reshaping the competitive landscape, with high prices forcing cost optimization across the industry [9] - Morocco, holding 70% of global phosphate reserves, is expected to reduce sulfur imports by 14% in 2024 due to customized fertilizers that lower sulfur consumption [10] - China's policy adjustments for phosphate fertilizers aim to stabilize prices and ensure supply, with a price increase of 300 RMB/ton for MAP and diammonium phosphate [10]