Core Viewpoint - Qianhai is accelerating the development of Shenzhen as a global marine center, implementing the "14126" action plan for marine economic development [1] Group 1: Marine Economic Development - The "14126" action plan focuses on breakthroughs in the shipbuilding industry, emphasizing intelligence, autonomy, and clustering [1] - The port and shipping sectors are undergoing smart and green transformations, contributing to a vibrant coastal area that integrates production, living, and ecology [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the military industry, suggesting that the industry is nearing a bottom and is expected to recover in 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights - The military sector reported a total revenue of 764.903 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.16%. Key segments such as shipbuilding, aerospace engines, and aviation maintained positive revenue growth [1][2][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders in the military sector decreased to 26.655 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 38.01% year-on-year, primarily due to lower downstream demand and price reductions for certain products [11][12]. - In Q1 2025, the military sector's revenue reached 153.894 billion yuan, up 2.35% year-on-year, with segments like ground equipment and aerospace showing signs of recovery [28][31]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Annual Report and 2025 Q1 Review - The military sector's revenue structure shows significant characteristics, with a focus on the recovery of order fundamentals. The shipbuilding sector saw a revenue increase of 10.87%, while ground equipment and aerospace segments are expected to stabilize [11][28]. - The military sector's net profit for 2024 was 26.655 billion yuan, down 38.01% year-on-year, with only the shipbuilding sector showing positive growth [11][12]. 2. Key Target Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Investment strategies suggest focusing on traditional military sectors with expected order recovery, including aerospace engines, shipbuilding, and aviation [3]. - New domains and new qualities are recommended, emphasizing low-cost, intelligent, and systematic characteristics in industries like precision-guided munitions and unmanned systems [3]. 3. Investment Strategy - The report recommends three main investment lines: traditional military sectors, new domains with significant growth potential, and companies with expected asset integration and competitive military trade markets [3]. - Specific recommended stocks include aerospace engine manufacturers, shipbuilding companies, and firms involved in commercial aerospace and low-altitude economies [3]. 4. Market Performance - The military sector's performance is closely monitored, with various companies announcing contracts and showing signs of recovery in the fundamentals of the military sector [46][47].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the military industry, indicating a potential recovery in performance by 2025, with a focus on companies with order recovery expectations and performance support [2][10][44]. Core Insights - The military sector reported a total revenue of 764.903 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.16%. Key segments showing positive growth include shipbuilding, aerospace engines, and aviation [2][10]. - The net profit for the military sector decreased to 26.655 billion yuan in 2024, down 38.01% year-on-year, primarily due to lower downstream demand and price reductions for certain products [12][10]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to show signs of recovery, particularly in ground equipment and aerospace segments, with a projected increase in associated transaction amounts [2][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The military sector's revenue growth was driven by shipbuilding (10.87% increase), aerospace engines (4.46% increase), and aviation (2.75% increase), while ground equipment and commercial aerospace saw significant declines [10][12]. - The report highlights a structural recovery in the military sector, with positive signals emerging from major companies regarding contract announcements and performance stabilization [2][38]. 2. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Traditional military sectors with expected order recovery, particularly in aerospace engines, shipbuilding, and aviation [2][44]. 2. New domains characterized by low-cost, intelligent, and systematic features, including precision-guided munitions and unmanned systems [2][44]. 3. Companies with asset integration expectations and competitive positions in military trade markets [2][44]. 3. Recommended Stocks - Traditional military direction: Recommended stocks include Aerospace Power, Aerospace Control, and Huayin Technology [3][45]. - New domain and new quality direction: Recommended stocks include High De Infrared, North Navigation, and Aerospace Rainbow [3][45]. - Reform and overseas direction: Recommended stocks include Guorui Technology and Construction Industry [3][45].

Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, China's exports grew by 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding the 5.8% growth in the first quarter, despite the impact of new U.S. tariffs implemented on April 2 [2][6] Export Performance Analysis - The resilience in exports can be attributed to a 21.0% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S., which, while significant, was better than expected. Exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America saw year-on-year growth rates of 20.8%, 21.7%, 25.3%, and 17.3%, respectively, effectively offsetting the decline [2][8][10] - Major export categories showed mixed results, with labor-intensive products like textiles, bags, clothing, and toys experiencing a combined year-on-year decline of 0.8%. Electronics, particularly mobile phones, were significantly affected by tariffs, with year-on-year declines of 21.4% for phones and 1.7% for automatic data processing equipment. Home appliances and furniture also saw low growth rates of -2.9% and -7.8%, respectively. However, automotive exports increased slightly by 4.4%, surpassing the first quarter's 2.2% [2][12][15][16] Competitive Advantage of Chinese Manufacturing - April's export data highlighted the competitiveness and resilience of "Made in China" products. China's manufacturing sector has both scale and efficiency advantages, as evidenced by its global manufacturing value added share of approximately 31% in 2021, compared to the U.S. at 16% and Japan at 6%. The Competitive Industrial Performance (CIP) index shows China ranked second globally in 2021, up from 35th in 1990 [3][17] Caution on Tariff Impact - There is a need for vigilance regarding the impact of tariffs, as the effects may become more pronounced in the coming months. Historical data from 2018 indicates that significant tariff implementations led to delayed impacts on export growth, with a notable decline occurring several months after tariffs were enacted. The April PMI data showed a 4.3-point month-on-month decline in export orders, particularly in textiles, chemicals, and midstream equipment manufacturing, indicating a potential lag in the transmission from orders to delivery [3][18][19] Economic Growth Dynamics - The relationship between growth momentum and stabilization efforts is likened to a seesaw, with current economic conditions suggesting a continued focus on counter-cyclical policies. Despite a strong actual growth rate in the first quarter, nominal growth remains low, with tax revenue and profits from large enterprises showing declines. The government is expected to leverage recent policy measures to stimulate domestic demand and address the ongoing pressures from tariffs [4][20]