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新房成交仍处季节性低位
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-28 13:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation in the current week, covering aspects such as demand, production, investment, trade, prices, and interest - rate bonds. It shows that the real - estate market is still at a low level, while the automotive consumption is warming up. Industrial production is stable, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong. Trade shows an upward trend, but prices of some commodities are falling. The issuance of interest - rate bonds has a certain progress [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Demand: New home sales decline year - on - year, while automotive consumption continues to recover - New home sales: The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 20 cities increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, far below the seasonal level. High - tier cities saw a narrowing decline in new home sales year - on - year, while low - tier cities had a larger decline. The sales area of second - hand housing in key cities mostly decreased week - on - week [1][11][27]. - Consumption: The daily average retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars increased significantly week - on - week. Movie consumption was below the seasonal level, and travel performance was divided. The national migration scale index decreased week - on - week, while the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities recovered [1]. 3.2 Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong - Mid - and upstream: The blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan remained basically flat, the rebar operating rate increased, the PTA operating rate decreased week - on - week, and the operating rates of polyester filament and petroleum asphalt plants increased week - on - week, indicating a possible marginal improvement in infrastructure construction starts [2][44]. - Downstream: The operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles continued to rise, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly week - on - week. The absolute value of semi - steel tires was still higher than the same period in previous years. The trade - in subsidy policy may support the production side in the short term [2][44]. 3.3 Investment: The apparent consumption of rebar recovers, and cement prices decline The apparent consumption of rebar improved, and its price decreased week - on - week. The cement shipping rate decreased, the cement storage capacity ratio increased, and the cement price declined [3][59]. 3.4 Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices continue to rise - Export: The container throughput of ports increased, and the CCFI composite index rebounded week - on - week. Freight rates on European routes increased, those on the US West Coast routes decreased, and those on Southeast Asian routes remained basically flat. In addition, the BDI index also declined [4][71]. - Import: Container shipping prices increased, and the CICFI composite index rose slightly by 1.2% week - on - week [4][71]. 3.5 Prices: Agricultural product prices are weak, and international crude oil prices decline - CPI: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices dropped by 0.2% week - on - week. Pork and fruit prices decreased, while egg and vegetable prices rebounded slightly [5][82]. - PPI: Commodity and metal price indices declined. The Nanhua industrial product price index decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, Brent crude oil spot price dropped by 8.2% week - on - week, COMEX gold futures price decreased by 1.8% week - on - week, and LME copper spot price increased by 1.8% week - on - week [5][90]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year reaches 90% - Next week (June 30 - July 4), the disclosed issuance of interest - rate bonds is 97.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 39.5 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 0 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 80.2 billion yuan; the issuance of local bonds is 72.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of 21.7 billion yuan [6][101]. - As of June 27, the issuance scale of replacement bonds this year is 1.7959 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 89.8%; the issuance of new general bonds is 445.4 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 55.7%; the issuance of new special bonds is 2.1127 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 48.0% [6]. - 29 provinces and municipalities directly under the central government have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total planned issuance scale of 2.5868 trillion yuan [6][112]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation: The central bank's second - quarter regular meeting emphasizes flexible policy implementation - On June 24, the Ministry of Finance stated that the final accounts were generally good and would implement a more proactive fiscal policy [114]. - On June 23, the central bank's policy committee held its second - quarter regular meeting in 2025, suggesting to increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation and flexibly control the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [115]. - On June 24, six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" [116]. - On June 25 (local time), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates [117]. - On June 25, Guangdong Province implemented policies on off - site provident fund loans and withdrawals for off - site house purchases [118]. - On June 26, Qingdao City optimized and adjusted its housing provident fund loan policy [119].
宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告:经济周周看:本周经济景气度略有回落-20250512
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-12 13:30
证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 从需求端来看,消费假期效应消退走弱,固投整体下行,出口仍有韧性。 从价格端来看,本周物价边际承压,系统性回升有待需求侧反弹。 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型,传统指标对经济的拟合度下降; 地缘政治博弈强度超预期。 经济周周看:本周经济景气度略有回落 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看:整体向上,生产偏强,需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架,我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数,更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看,GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度,例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合,在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善,有望更好地拟合周度 GDP,使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周(截至 5 月 10 日)为 5.4%,与上周修订值 5.7%略有回 落,或表征经济增长景气有所放缓。我们认为,随着关税冲击,GDP 周 ...
【广发宏观贺骁束】4月高频数据与五一假期最新变化
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-05-05 11:59
广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一, 4月工业部门开工率同比涨跌互现,其中钢铁、焦化等内需链仍偏强,外需相关度较高的纺服产业链 率开工率呈回落迹象。截至4月第四周,全国247家高炉开工率(期末值,下同)同比增长3.7pct;焦化企业 开工率同比增长8.8pct。苯乙烯开工率同比增长1.7pct;PVC开工率同比增长1.8pct。汽车半钢胎开工率同 比回落2.9pct,全钢胎开工率同比回落1.0pct。PTA江浙织机负荷率同比回落9.0pct,环比回落5.8pct;涤 纶长丝江浙织机开工率同比回落17.3pct,环比回落8.5pct。纺服产业链开工率回落的情况和PMI数据也较为 匹配,在报告《哪些行业景气度逆势上行:4月PMI简析》中,我们指出:从出口订单来看,纺服、化工、中 游装备制造降幅最大。 第二, 4月建筑资金到位率延续改善,传统基建相关实物工作量仍偏弱,电力侧实物开工相对偏强。据百年 建筑调研,截至4月29日,全国工地资金到位率58.8%,相较3月末环比回升0.9pct,非房建、房建项目资金 到位率环比分别增长0.8、1.7pct。 ...
【广发宏观贺骁束】4月经济初窥
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-04-18 13:38
广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一, 工业部门开工率同比涨跌互现,其中钢铁、焦化等内需链仍偏强,纺服产业链相关的江浙织机开工率 有一定放缓迹象,有待后续继续观察确认。截至4月第三周,全国247家高炉开工率(期末值,下同)同比增 长3.0pct;焦化企业开工率同比增长6.8pct。苯乙烯开工率同比增长0.6pct;PTA江浙织机负荷率同比回落 8.1pct,环比回落5.0pct;涤纶长丝江浙织机开工率同比回落16.4pct,环比回落7.7pct;山东地炼开工率 同比回落6.3pct;PVC开工率同比增长0.5pct。汽车半钢胎开工率同比回落2.6pct,全钢胎开工率同比增长 1.9pct。 第二, 中电联口径,截至4月10日纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比下降6.4%。这一数据和 3月大致相当,今年3月1-27日同一口径燃煤发电量同比回落6.7%。近年来新能源发电占比迅速提升,火电 对经济的代表性下降,如一季度统计局口径火电、风电、太阳能发电同比增长分别为-4.7%、9.3%、 19.5%,所以燃煤发电数据只有同口径对比的意义。 ...
【广发宏观贺骁束】高频数据下的3月经济
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-04-02 13:48
广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一, 工业部门开工率同比涨跌互现,上游高炉、焦化开工率同比涨幅扩大。截至3月第四周,全国247家高 炉开工率(期末值,下同)同比增长5.6pct;焦化企业开工率同比增长5.6pct。苯乙烯开工率同比增长 16.3pct;PTA江浙织机负荷率同比回落4.6pct;山东地炼开工率同比回落3.6pct,PVC开工率同比回落 0.8pct。汽车半钢胎开工率同比增长2.6pct,全钢胎开工率同比回落1.4pct。 第二, 燃煤发电量和耗煤量延续了前两个月增速中枢。中电联统计截至3月27日,纳入统计的发电集团燃煤 电厂当月累计发电量同比下降6.7%;燃煤电厂耗煤量月同比下降6.6%。这与前期数据相当,统计局数据1-2 月火电发电量同比-5.8%。不过需要指出的是:(1)火电是整体的一部分,1-2月发电量同比-1.3%; (2)发电量是统计规模以上发电企业,用电量统计整体,1-2月用电量同比1.3%;(3)1-2月用电量包含 高基数(去年同期同比11.0%)和工作日减少影响;(4)从3月PMI数据看,高耗能企业景气环比下行 ...