Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income report released on February 9, 2026, focusing on high - frequency economic data analysis and providing investment - related insights [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows production heat differentiation, with rising coke oven, blast furnace, and PTA operating rates and falling asphalt and tire operating rates [2][31] - The commercial housing transaction area decreases, while the land supply area slightly increases [2][31] - Overall prices are declining, including energy, metal, and agricultural product prices [2][31] - As the holiday approaches, subway passenger volume and peak congestion index in first - tier cities decline, while domestic and international flight volumes grow rapidly [2][31] - Short - term focus should be on the implementation of fiscal and monetary coordinated policies [2][31] Summary by Directory 1. Production - **Steel**: Coke oven capacity utilization increases by 0.48 pct, blast furnace operating rate rises by 0.53 pct, and rebar production drops by 8.15 tons. The inventory increases by 4.52 tons [8] - **Petroleum Asphalt**: The operating rate drops by 1.0 pct to 24.5% [8] - **Chemical Industry**: PX operating rate remains flat, while PTA operating rate increases by 1.07 pct to 76.9% [8] - **Automobile Tires**: The full - steel tire operating rate drops by 1.74 pct to 60.7%, and the semi - steel tire operating rate drops by 2.08 pct to 72.76% [9] 2. Demand - **Real Estate**: The commercial housing transaction area decreases by 28.05 square meters to 123.24 square meters. The inventory - to - sales ratio drops by 1.83 to 114.86. The land supply area increases by 29.65 square meters to 1021.03 square meters, and the residential land transaction premium rate drops by 2.91 pct to 0.01% [13] - **Movie Box Office**: The box office drops by 0.2 billion yuan to 284 million yuan [13] - **Shipping Freight Rates**: The SCFI index drops by 3.81%, the CCFI index drops by 4.55%, and the BDI index drops by 10.47% [16] 3. Prices - **Energy**: Brent crude oil price drops by 3.73% to $68.05 per barrel, and coking coal futures price drops by 1.83% to 1154 yuan per ton [20] - **Metals**: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by - 0.08%, - 0.81%, and + 0.39% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price drops by 1.81% [21] - **Agricultural Products**: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index drops by 0.70%. Pork, egg, and vegetable prices drop by 1.45%, 1.28%, and 1.78% respectively, while fruit prices increase by 0.25% [24] 4. Logistics - **Subway Passenger Volume**: In Beijing, it drops by 5.73 million person - times to 9.9066 million person - times, with a weekly change of - 0.57%. In Shanghai, it drops by 8.57 million person - times to 9.96 million person - times, with a weekly change of - 0.85% [27] - **Flight Volume**: Domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increases by 1050.43 flights to 14699.14 flights, with a weekly change of 7.7%. Domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increases by 15.57 flights to 397.29 flights, with a weekly change of 4.08%. International flight volume increases by 107.43 flights to 1929.43 flights, with a weekly change of 5.9% [28] - **Urban Traffic**: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities drops by 0.07 to 1.58, with a weekly change of - 4.15% [28]

Economic Indicators - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of December 27 is 4.9%, slightly up from the revised 4.8% of the previous week, indicating marginal economic growth improvement[1] - The industrial weekly prosperity index remains stable at 8.1%, while the service sector index has slightly decreased to 2.9%[7] - The construction sector shows a slight improvement in physical workload, with rebar apparent demand at 202.8 million tons, down from 208.6 million tons the previous week[7] Demand and Consumption - External demand remains the strongest variable, while consumer demand continues to show low-level fluctuations, with a consumer high-frequency index of 2.3%[18] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities decreased to 254.7 million square meters, a 1% week-on-week decline and a 41% year-on-year decline[46] - The container throughput for exports decreased to 620,100 TEUs, down from 658,900 TEUs the previous week, although the year-to-date growth is 5.45%[55] Price Trends - Consumer prices are generally stable, with agricultural product wholesale prices showing a slight decrease of 0.17% week-on-week[64] - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.51 yuan per kilogram, down 0.4% week-on-week, while the average price of six monitored fruits increased by 1.6%[71]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production - side heat marginally improves, with increased operating rates of coke ovens, asphalt, PTA, and all - steel tires, while rebar production, semi - steel tire, and blast furnace operating rates decline; commercial housing transaction area improves for two consecutive weeks, and the land supply area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities reaches a seasonal peak; overall prices rise, with increases in crude oil, metal, and agricultural product prices, but continuous decline in coking coal and pork prices; the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continuously rises significantly, reaching a new high since December 7, 2023. Short - term focus is on the implementation of incremental policies in consumption and investment and the recovery of the real estate market [2][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Production: Heat Marginally Improves, Operating Rates of Coke Ovens, Asphalt, PTA, and All - Steel Tires Rise - **Steel**: In the week of November 28, the coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.92 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 pct, and rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons. The coke oven capacity utilization rate of domestic independent coking plants (230 samples) was 72.02%, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills (247 samples) was 81.09%, and the national building material steel mill rebar production was 206.08 tons, with inventory decreasing by 6.59 tons [2][8]. - **Petroleum Asphalt**: In the week of November 26, the operating rate of domestic petroleum asphalt plants stabilized and rebounded by 3.0 pct, reaching 27.8% [8]. - **Chemical Industry**: On November 27, the PX operating rate remained flat at 90.13%, and the PTA operating rate increased by 2.64 pct to 73.81% [8]. - **Automobile Tires**: In the week of November 27, the all - steel tire operating rate increased by 2.02 pct to 63.33%, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 1.88 pct to 69.19% [9]. 2. Demand: Land Supply Reaches Seasonal Peak, BDI Reaches New High in Nearly Two Years - **Real Estate**: In the week of November 23, the commercial housing transaction area continued to rise, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area reached an annual peak, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased. The commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 204.59 million square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio of 10 large cities was 112.65, the land supply area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities was 5354.75 million square meters, and the residential land transaction premium rate was 0.73% [13]. - **Movie Box Office**: In the week of November 23, the national movie box office revenue decreased by 193 million yuan compared with the previous week, amounting to 463 million yuan [13]. - **Automobile**: In the week of November 23, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 0.38 million vehicles to 71,131 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 1.67 million vehicles to 95,654 vehicles [15]. - **Shipping Freight Rates**: In the week of November 28, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose slightly by 0.69% to 1403.13 points, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) slightly declined by 0.09% to 1121.8 points, and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose significantly by 12.53% to 2560 points, reaching a new high since December 7, 2023 [18]. 3. Prices: Crude Oil, Metal, and Agricultural Product Prices All Rebound, Coking Coal Continues to Decline - **Energy**: On November 28, the Brent crude oil futures settlement price rose by 0.64% to $63.2 per barrel, and the coking coal futures settlement price decreased by 4.4% to 1064 yuan per ton [20]. - **Metal**: On November 28, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices increased by 3.69%, 2.03%, and 1.97% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price rose by 1.24% [21]. - **Agricultural Products**: On November 28, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index rose by 0.89% to 126.49. Among major agricultural products, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.45% to 17.83 yuan per kilogram, the average wholesale price of eggs increased by 1.24% to 7.35 yuan per kilogram, the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables increased by 1.94% to 5.79 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits increased by 1.83% to 7.22 yuan per kilogram [23][24]. 4. Logistics: Domestic Flight Volume Decreases, Urban Congestion Index Continues to Rise - **Subway Passenger Volume**: On November 27, the seven - day moving average of Beijing subway passenger volume decreased by 25.24 million person - times to 980.86 million person - times, and that of Shanghai decreased by 9.29 million person - times to 1068.43 million person - times [26]. - **Flight Execution Volume**: On November 28, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight execution volume decreased by 49 flights to 12,484.29 flights, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreased by 1.43 flights to 363.71 flights, and that of international flights increased by 13 flights to 1839 flights [27]. - **Urban Traffic**: On November 28, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index of first - tier cities continued to rise by 0.05 to 1.73 [27]. 5. Summary: Production Marginally Improves, Overall Prices Rise - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production - side heat marginally improves, with increased operating rates of coke ovens, asphalt, PTA, and all - steel tires, while rebar production, semi - steel tire, and blast furnace operating rates decline; commercial housing transaction area improves for two consecutive weeks, and the land supply area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities reaches a seasonal peak; overall prices rise, with increases in crude oil, metal, and agricultural product prices, but continuous decline in coking coal and pork prices; the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continuously rises significantly, reaching a new high since December 7, 2023. Short - term focus is on the implementation of incremental policies in consumption and investment and the recovery of the real estate market [30].

Industrial Sector - Steel and building materials production has rebounded, while the operating rate of float glass has decreased[2] - The apparent demand for steel building materials has increased, while the operating rate for the textile polyester sector has shown seasonal weakness[2] - The operating rates for automotive tires have slightly declined this week[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 20.8% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 8.7 percentage points compared to last week[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.98% week-on-week, indicating a slight narrowing of the decline[2] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue increased by 74.7% year-on-year, with a daily average of 83.89 million yuan[2] - The volume of postal express deliveries has grown by 8.3% year-on-year, showing recovery in logistics[2] - Retail sales of major home appliances decreased by 34.6% year-on-year, a decline of 7.2 percentage points compared to the previous value[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.4% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 7.4%[2] - The export container freight index rose by 2.6% week-on-week, indicating a slight increase in shipping costs[2] Prices - The agricultural product wholesale price index fell by 0.1% week-on-week, reflecting seasonal trends[2] - The industrial product prices weakened, with the South China industrial product index dropping by 1.9%[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation in the current week, covering aspects such as demand, production, investment, trade, prices, and interest - rate bonds. It shows that the real - estate market is still at a low level, while the automotive consumption is warming up. Industrial production is stable, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong. Trade shows an upward trend, but prices of some commodities are falling. The issuance of interest - rate bonds has a certain progress [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Demand: New home sales decline year - on - year, while automotive consumption continues to recover - New home sales: The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 20 cities increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, far below the seasonal level. High - tier cities saw a narrowing decline in new home sales year - on - year, while low - tier cities had a larger decline. The sales area of second - hand housing in key cities mostly decreased week - on - week [1][11][27]. - Consumption: The daily average retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars increased significantly week - on - week. Movie consumption was below the seasonal level, and travel performance was divided. The national migration scale index decreased week - on - week, while the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities recovered [1]. 3.2 Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong - Mid - and upstream: The blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan remained basically flat, the rebar operating rate increased, the PTA operating rate decreased week - on - week, and the operating rates of polyester filament and petroleum asphalt plants increased week - on - week, indicating a possible marginal improvement in infrastructure construction starts [2][44]. - Downstream: The operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles continued to rise, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly week - on - week. The absolute value of semi - steel tires was still higher than the same period in previous years. The trade - in subsidy policy may support the production side in the short term [2][44]. 3.3 Investment: The apparent consumption of rebar recovers, and cement prices decline The apparent consumption of rebar improved, and its price decreased week - on - week. The cement shipping rate decreased, the cement storage capacity ratio increased, and the cement price declined [3][59]. 3.4 Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices continue to rise - Export: The container throughput of ports increased, and the CCFI composite index rebounded week - on - week. Freight rates on European routes increased, those on the US West Coast routes decreased, and those on Southeast Asian routes remained basically flat. In addition, the BDI index also declined [4][71]. - Import: Container shipping prices increased, and the CICFI composite index rose slightly by 1.2% week - on - week [4][71]. 3.5 Prices: Agricultural product prices are weak, and international crude oil prices decline - CPI: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices dropped by 0.2% week - on - week. Pork and fruit prices decreased, while egg and vegetable prices rebounded slightly [5][82]. - PPI: Commodity and metal price indices declined. The Nanhua industrial product price index decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, Brent crude oil spot price dropped by 8.2% week - on - week, COMEX gold futures price decreased by 1.8% week - on - week, and LME copper spot price increased by 1.8% week - on - week [5][90]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year reaches 90% - Next week (June 30 - July 4), the disclosed issuance of interest - rate bonds is 97.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 39.5 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 0 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 80.2 billion yuan; the issuance of local bonds is 72.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of 21.7 billion yuan [6][101]. - As of June 27, the issuance scale of replacement bonds this year is 1.7959 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 89.8%; the issuance of new general bonds is 445.4 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 55.7%; the issuance of new special bonds is 2.1127 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 48.0% [6]. - 29 provinces and municipalities directly under the central government have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total planned issuance scale of 2.5868 trillion yuan [6][112]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation: The central bank's second - quarter regular meeting emphasizes flexible policy implementation - On June 24, the Ministry of Finance stated that the final accounts were generally good and would implement a more proactive fiscal policy [114]. - On June 23, the central bank's policy committee held its second - quarter regular meeting in 2025, suggesting to increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation and flexibly control the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [115]. - On June 24, six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" [116]. - On June 25 (local time), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates [117]. - On June 25, Guangdong Province implemented policies on off - site provident fund loans and withdrawals for off - site house purchases [118]. - On June 26, Qingdao City optimized and adjusted its housing provident fund loan policy [119].

Economic Indicators - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index for the week ending May 10 is 5.4%, a slight decline from the revised value of 5.7% from the previous week, indicating a slowdown in economic growth[1] - The industrial weekly prosperity index decreased to 7.5% from 8.0%, while the service industry index fell to 3.7% from 4.1%[12] Production Sector - Overall, high-frequency indicators for the service and industrial sectors have shown a slight decline compared to the previous week[13] - The average daily output of pig iron from key enterprises remained relatively stable, while the operating rate of full-steel tires in the automotive sector decreased compared to the same period in previous years[13] Demand Trends - The consumption high-frequency index dropped to 3.9% from 5.1%, reflecting a decrease in consumer activity as holiday effects dissipate[12] - The total area of commercial housing transactions in 30 major cities fell to 152.8 million square meters, a 12% decrease from the previous week[53] Export Performance - Container throughput increased to 671.2 thousand TEUs from 629.7 thousand TEUs, indicating resilience in exports despite tariff impacts[60] - Cumulative year-on-year growth in container throughput since the beginning of 2025 is 9.38%, slightly down from 9.57%[60] Price Trends - Marginal pressure on prices was observed this week, with the agricultural product wholesale price index showing a decrease of 0.8%[12] - The overall price of production materials also experienced a slight decline, indicating potential challenges in the demand side recovery[12]

Industrial Sector - In April, the operating rates in the industrial sector showed mixed results, with strong performance in the steel and coking industries, while the textile and apparel sector saw a decline. The national high furnace operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the coking enterprises' operating rate rose by 8.8 percentage points [1][6][7] - The operating rates for various products were as follows: styrene increased by 1.7 percentage points, PVC by 1.8 percentage points, while the operating rates for automotive semi-steel tires and full-steel tires decreased by 2.9 and 1.0 percentage points respectively [1][6][7] Construction Sector - The construction funding availability rate improved in April, with a national average of 58.8%, up 0.9 percentage points from March. Non-residential and residential project funding rates increased by 0.8 and 1.7 percentage points respectively [2][8][9] - However, the physical workload indicators showed divergence, with the national cement shipment rate at 42.3%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, and the asphalt operating rate at 28.3%, up 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][8][9] Real Estate Market - New home sales growth in April saw a decline, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities at 22.7 million square meters, down 12.8% year-on-year. First, second, and third-tier cities recorded declines of -2.2%, -16.1%, and -18.9% respectively [3][12][13] - The second-hand housing market remained active, with a 24.0% year-on-year increase in intermediary subscriptions across 84 cities, and a 21.1% increase in net signed contracts in core cities [3][12][13] Automotive Sector - Passenger car retail sales in April remained stable, with a year-on-year growth of 10%. The wholesale volume also grew by 10% year-on-year [3][14] - New energy vehicle sales saw a year-on-year increase of 24%, although this was a decrease from the previous month's growth of 39% [3][14] Consumer Electronics - In April, air conditioning sales maintained a relatively high growth rate, with online sales up 67.7% year-on-year. Offline sales for air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators showed mixed results, with air conditioners up 27.4% year-on-year [3][14][15] Shipping and Logistics - Container throughput growth slowed further in April, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, down from 9.8% in March. Port cargo throughput averaged a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [4][15] Price Trends - Food and industrial prices were relatively weak in April, with the BPI index dropping to 863 points, marking a 4.0% month-on-month decline. Prices for pork and key vegetables also fell [4][16] Travel and Tourism - During the "May Day" holiday, cross-regional travel increased by 5.5% year-on-year, with domestic flight execution numbers up 6.5% compared to April [5][17][18] - Tourism consumption was active, with a significant increase in ticket bookings and hotel reservations, particularly in county-level tourism [5][17][19]

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 工业部门开工率同比涨跌互现，其中钢铁、焦化等内需链仍偏强，纺服产业链相关的江浙织机开工率 有一定放缓迹象，有待后续继续观察确认。截至4月第三周，全国247家高炉开工率（期末值，下同）同比增 长3.0pct；焦化企业开工率同比增长6.8pct。苯乙烯开工率同比增长0.6pct；PTA江浙织机负荷率同比回落 8.1pct，环比回落5.0pct；涤纶长丝江浙织机开工率同比回落16.4pct，环比回落7.7pct；山东地炼开工率 同比回落6.3pct；PVC开工率同比增长0.5pct。汽车半钢胎开工率同比回落2.6pct，全钢胎开工率同比增长 1.9pct。 第二， 中电联口径，截至4月10日纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比下降6.4%。这一数据和 3月大致相当，今年3月1-27日同一口径燃煤发电量同比回落6.7%。近年来新能源发电占比迅速提升，火电 对经济的代表性下降，如一季度统计局口径火电、风电、太阳能发电同比增长分别为-4.7%、9.3%、 19.5%，所以燃煤发电数据只有同口径对比的意义。 ...

Group 1 - The industrial sector's operating rates show mixed year-on-year changes, with significant increases in upstream blast furnace and coking operating rates, both up by 5.6 percentage points [1][7] - Coal-fired power generation and coal consumption continue to follow the growth trend of the previous months, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% in coal-fired power generation and 6.6% in coal consumption as of March 27 [2][9] - The construction funding availability rate has improved, with a national average of 57.9% as of March 25, up 1.4 percentage points from the end of February [3][10] Group 2 - Subway passenger volumes in major cities remain stable, with an average of 63.19 million trips in March, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [4][11] - The real estate market shows sustained interest in second-hand homes, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1% in intermediary purchases in March for 73 cities, while new home transactions have slightly slowed [5][13] - Retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars have expanded, with retail sales up 18% year-on-year and wholesale sales up 16% as of March 23 [6][14] Group 3 - Home appliance sales maintain relatively high offline growth rates, with offline sales of air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators showing positive year-on-year growth in the fourth week of March [7][15] - Container throughput continues to show resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% in March, reflecting stable export conditions [8][16] - Basic metals continue to show strength, while energy, chemicals, steel, and building materials are adjusting, with the broad industrial product price index (BPI) showing a slight decline of 0.2% at the end of March compared to February [9][17] Group 4 - Economic indicators such as EPMI, BCI, and PMI point to continued economic improvement on a month-on-month basis, although year-on-year assessments remain challenging due to varying slopes [10][19] - Emerging industries and sectors benefiting from policy incentives are leading in terms of economic vitality, while the upstream raw materials sector shows weaker performance [11][19] - The construction sector's funding situation continues to improve, but actual work volume lacks consistent signals, indicating a need for increased activity [12][19]