2025 年 12 月 25 日 开源晨会 1225 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 行业名称 涨跌幅(%) 国防军工 2.881 电子 2.122 建筑材料 1.720 轻工制造 1.688 机械设备 1.487 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔 | -0.845 | | 煤炭 | -0.699 | | 食品饮料 | -0.363 | | 银行 | -0.304 | | 传媒 | 0.005 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【策略】从"慢牛不慢"到"平顶非顶"——2026 年年度投资策略-20251224 从"资产重估"到"盈利修复"，2026 年更可能"低斜率慢牛"而非"尖顶短牛" 2025 年开启的"资产重估"牛市的空间与节奏：（1）空间上，证券化率为判 ...

证券日报网讯12月19日，欣锐科技（300745）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司车载电源第9代 平台"锐虎"具有多重安全架构，正向开发理念，车规级的验证体系保证，实现零安抛；全行业首次实现 基于双向氮化镓器件的单级矩阵变换器拓扑(双向)量产技术突破，实现九大技术创新；超紧凑设计，适 配全行业车型，兼容独立与大集成产品形态。该平台适配整车智能驾驶需求，建立了完整的软硬件安全 架构，支持400V/800V共板设计，具备高可靠性及多场景兼容性。 ...

Group 1: Market Position and Competition - The domestic market for vehicle power supplies is primarily divided into two categories: self-research by OEMs (e.g., BYD, Tesla) and third-party independent suppliers providing complete solutions [1] - Most vehicle manufacturers still rely on third-party independent suppliers for vehicle power supply products, indicating a stable competitive landscape due to high technical barriers and significant R&D investments [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Strategy - The company holds a leading market share in the third-party vehicle power supply segment, attributed to technology-driven R&D, strong partnerships with major OEMs, and high product quality [1] - Revenue has significantly increased year-on-year due to rising customer demand and business expansion, leading to a corresponding rise in accounts receivable [3] Group 3: Financial Outlook - The company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on gross margins, expecting to counteract price pressures through an increase in high-value products and cost optimization from technological advancements [4] Group 4: Future Business Development - The company’s V2G (Vehicle-to-Grid) business has made progress, with products featuring bidirectional charging being actively developed, supported by mature market mechanisms in certain overseas regions [5] Group 5: Employee Incentives - The company has approved a restricted stock incentive plan, granting 4,424,200 shares as part of its employee stock ownership program [6]

Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a diversified customer base, covering domestic traditional automotive brands, new car manufacturers, and major international car companies [1] - The domestic market partnerships include leading companies such as GAC, NIO, Great Wall, Xiaomi, Xpeng, and others, ensuring stable cooperation [1] - The company aims to leverage its strong customer foundation and brand influence to expand both domestic and international markets, enhancing its core competitiveness in the vehicle power supply business [1] Group 2: Product Development and Technology - The vehicle power supply industry is evolving towards 800V high-voltage architecture, deep integration of "multi-in-one" solutions, and diversification of functions, leading to increased technical complexity and unit value [1] - The application of new technologies, such as third-generation wide-bandgap GaN, is expected to bring significant performance and value breakthroughs [2] - The company plans to drive long-term steady growth in unit value through continuous technological upgrades and product innovations [2] Group 3: Market Expansion and Opportunities - The domestic vehicle power supply sector is primarily supported by third-party independent suppliers, with a stable competitive landscape [3] - The overseas market for new energy vehicles has a low penetration rate, presenting significant growth potential, which is a key focus for the company's future expansion [3] - The company intends to deepen cooperation with established international mainstream car manufacturers to enhance market share [3] Group 4: Production Capacity and Infrastructure - The main production base is located in Huzhou Anji, with the first factory operating at full capacity since its launch in 2021, designed for an annual output of 1.2 million units [4] - The second factory began production in the first half of this year, with increased automation and efficiency through smart logistics and integrated design [4] - An overseas factory is under construction, with the building completed in 2024, and production lines will be developed based on customer demand [4] Group 5: Revenue Growth and Client Relationships - Continued deepening of partnerships with strategic domestic clients supports order growth and stabilizes the domestic business [5] - The launch of overseas client projects and further market expansion is expected to contribute incremental revenue to the overall business [5]

Core Viewpoint - The global market for automotive power supplies is expected to reach 64.8 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 19% from 2024 to 2027, indicating significant growth potential in the AIDC new track [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The automotive power supply system plays a critical role in electric vehicles, handling energy distribution, conversion, and transmission. The technology is mature and approaching standardization [1]. - The market is projected to benefit from the increase in new energy vehicle sales, with a forecasted CAGR of 15% for domestic new energy passenger vehicles from 2024 to 2027 [1]. - The price difference between 800V and 400V power supply products is estimated to be around 250 yuan, with a projected 15% penetration rate for 800V models by 2025, which will enhance average selling prices (ASP) [1]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - Leading manufacturers possess cost competitiveness and customer binding advantages, with a highly concentrated competitive landscape where the top 10 players have a market share exceeding 90% [3]. - The production capacity of leading third-party manufacturers has reached millions of units, and they are accelerating the deployment of automated production lines, which can produce 86% more per hour compared to semi-automated lines [3]. - Once automotive power supply products pass vehicle manufacturer certification, they establish stable partnerships with specific vehicle models, creating a customized product barrier [3]. Group 3: Technological Overlap - The architecture and technical routes of AIDC server power supplies overlap with automotive power supplies, allowing automotive power supply manufacturers to potentially expand into new markets [2]. - Both power supply types utilize AC/DC conversion and high-power applications, with leading automotive power supply manufacturers capable of meeting the demands of AIDC power supplies in terms of power density, efficiency, and electromagnetic compatibility [2].

Group 1 - The report highlights the recovery of free cash flow in the manufacturing sector due to the "anti-involution" policy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to a 37.2% increase in the free cash flow investment portfolio this year, with an excess return of 8.6% [1][7][10] - The report identifies specific industries where free cash flow (FCFF) is actively or passively improving, emphasizing the importance of EBIT and CAPEX in this recovery [7][10] - The analysis indicates that sectors such as resources, consumption, and light asset technology experience significant excess returns when free cash flow improves, while heavy asset technology and pre-involution manufacturing sectors show excess returns despite deteriorating cash flow [8][9] Group 2 - The advanced manufacturing sector is characterized by high differentiation among sub-sectors, with automotive valuations currently at relatively low levels, suggesting potential investment opportunities [2][14] - The report recommends focusing on funds tracking indices related to new productivity in areas such as new energy, power equipment, military industry, and automotive sectors, listing specific ETFs for investment [2][15] - Historical performance of the advanced manufacturing index shows a 120.56% increase since 2019, with power equipment performing the best among sub-sectors [14] Group 3 - The vehicle power supply industry is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size of 64.8 billion yuan by 2027, driven by the rise of new energy vehicles and the increasing penetration of 800V systems [17][18] - Leading manufacturers in the vehicle power supply sector are well-positioned to expand into the AIDC server power supply market, with recommendations to focus on companies like Weimais and Fute Technology [17][19] - The competitive landscape is dominated by top-tier manufacturers with strong cost advantages and customer loyalty, indicating a trend of "the strong getting stronger" in this industry [19] Group 4 - The banking sector has seen a cumulative increase of 10.80% since early 2025, with significant performance variations among banks, driven by macroeconomic conditions and regulatory changes [22][24] - Historical analysis reveals that the banking sector's performance is closely tied to economic stability and liquidity conditions, with past bull markets often linked to favorable economic indicators [24][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of bank fundamentals, such as profitability and asset quality, in supporting stock performance, particularly during earnings disclosure periods [24][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [8] Core Insights - The vehicle power supply market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected global market size of 64.8 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 19% from 2024 to 2027. The demand is driven by the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles and the adoption of 800V platforms [6][58] - Leading manufacturers are expected to expand into the AIDC server power supply market, leveraging their existing technologies and capabilities [7][62] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a high concentration of market share among top players, with the top 10 manufacturers holding over 90% of the market [6][71] Summary by Sections 1. Market Growth Drivers - The growth of the new energy vehicle market is a key driver, with domestic sales expected to reach 1.63 million units by 2025, contributing to the vehicle power supply market's expansion [11][58] - The introduction of 800V models is anticipated to enhance market dynamics, with a projected penetration rate of 15% by 2025 [51][58] 2. Competitive Landscape - The market is dominated by third-party suppliers, with a stable competitive structure where the top 10 manufacturers maintain a market share exceeding 90% [6][71] - Major manufacturers are focusing on automation and supply chain advantages to strengthen their market positions [6][11] 3. Technological Trends - Vehicle power supplies are evolving towards higher power density, efficiency, and integration, with a shift towards using GaN and SiC materials for improved performance [19][34][41] - The architecture and technology paths of vehicle power supplies and AIDC server power supplies are similar, allowing vehicle power supply manufacturers to potentially enter the AIDC market [62][65] 4. Key Players - Recommended companies for investment include Weimais and Fute Technology, with additional attention on Xinyi Technology, United Power, and Yingboer [7][11]

Group 1: Key Conclusions - The report highlights Guangqi Technology (光启技术) as a leader in the metamaterials industry, having built a comprehensive industrial system from scratch, including a headquarters, five bases, seven capability platforms, and eight specialized companies, making it a global leader in metamaterials with integrated R&D, design, mass production, and testing capabilities [1][6][7] - The company is expected to see significant revenue and profit growth as its five bases gradually come into production, benefiting from increased product penetration [1][6][8] Group 2: Financial Projections - For Guangqi Technology, the projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 9.58 billion, 18.83 billion, and 23.49 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 47.0%, 96.6%, and 24.7% respectively [6][8] - Fortec Technology (富特科技) is expected to achieve revenues of 37.77 billion, 48.57 billion, and 61.05 billion CNY, with net profits of 2.13 billion, 3.22 billion, and 4.68 billion CNY for the same period [10][11] - Shengke Communication (盛科通信) is projected to have revenues of 13.53 billion, 17.76 billion, and 21.95 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 25.1%, 31.3%, and 23.6% respectively [13][14] - Weimais (威迈斯) is forecasted to generate revenues of 70.59 billion, 85.67 billion, and 100.80 billion CNY, with net profits of 6.57 billion, 8.74 billion, and 10.49 billion CNY for the same period [16][18] Group 3: Industry Insights - The metamaterials market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60.3% from 2025 to 2031, with significant applications in defense and military, wireless communication, and optics [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of metamaterials in advanced equipment, particularly in defense applications, and highlights Guangqi Technology's unique position as the only company in China to achieve large-scale industrialization of metamaterials for next-generation aerospace equipment [6][8] Group 4: Company Developments - Fortec Technology has seen a significant increase in its Q3 performance, with a revenue of 25.59 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 116.31% [10][11] - Shengke Communication has achieved a positive net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a revenue of 8.32 billion CNY, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth [13][14] - Weimais reported a Q3 revenue of 16.38 billion CNY, with a net profit of 1.53 billion CNY, indicating a strong growth trajectory [16][18]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has achieved significant accomplishments, marking a good start for the new journey towards the second centenary goal [6] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for transitioning towards a modern socialist society, emphasizing the need to address uncertainties and enhance high-quality development [7] - The implicit target for economic growth during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is around 5%, with necessary growth rates for GNI and GDP projected to exceed 6.3% and 4.6% respectively [8] Group 2: Power Industry Insights - The power demand in China has maintained steady growth, with total electricity consumption reaching 7.77 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [22] - The coal price has bottomed out, leading to a stabilization of electricity prices, with the average monthly trading price in Jiangsu rising to 395.60 RMB/MWh, an increase of 82.80 RMB/MWh [23] - The electricity market is expected to see a balanced supply-demand situation, with a focus on enhancing the profitability of thermal power and the growth of renewable energy sources [24] Group 3: Company-Specific Performance - The company "特锐德" reported a net profit of 3.59 billion RMB for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 41.53% and a gross margin of 27.76% [28] - "富特科技" achieved a net profit of 0.70 billion RMB in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 186.93%, driven by effective cost management and scale effects [37] - "招商积余" reported a revenue of 139.42 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 14.65% and a net profit of 6.86 billion RMB [31] Group 4: Electronics Industry Insights - "深南电路" achieved record high revenues and profits in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 167.54 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.39% [56] - The company’s gross margin improved to 31.39%, benefiting from an enhanced product mix and increased utilization rates [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that will outperform the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.597 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.45%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 425 million yuan, up 43.64% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.638 billion yuan, a 3.06% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 153 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 90.49% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is a leading player in the vehicle power supply industry, holding a 16.2% market share in China's vehicle power supply shipments for Q3 2025, despite a slight decline from the previous year [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 23.02%, an increase of 4.94 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 9.37%, up 4.11 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 610 million yuan, a substantial increase of 69% year-on-year [2]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company invested 107 million yuan in R&D in Q3 2025, with an R&D expense ratio of 6.52%. The sales of the next-generation integrated products accounted for over 20% of total sales [2]. - The company is focusing on emerging markets, including low-altitude economy and AI server power supply, leveraging its R&D capabilities and customer base [2]. Global Strategy - The company has established strong ties with Stellantis Group and is benefiting from the ramp-up of new electric vehicle platforms. It is also expanding its production base in Thailand [3]. - The company is expected to continue increasing its market share through product structure adjustments and accelerated globalization efforts [1][3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 649 million yuan, 872 million yuan, and 1.042 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 18, and 15 [4][3].