投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣 投资咨询证号：Z0021065 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 | 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1800~1900 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 1350~1450 | | source： 南华期货 | | | | | | | 集装箱运输市场日报 —— 期价整体偏震荡 2025/7/23 【核心矛盾】 EC基差日度变化 | 2025-07-23 | 基差（点） | 日涨跌（点） | 周涨跌（点） | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tuesday's sharp rise in the main European line futures was mainly influenced by spot quotes. The high opening of quotes in late August indicates that the peak season may last until late August or later, breaking the previous market expectation that July would be the peak for airline quotes. The market has adjusted the price difference between the 10 and 08 contracts, and the 12 - contract has also risen significantly due to the traditional peak - season factor [3]. - The current futures price trend is mainly affected by spot quotes. If other airlines follow the high - opening quotes, the main contract will continue to rise; if the quotes in August are conservative, the market may turn into a volatile trend. It is recommended that investors considering long positions prioritize the 12 - contract [11]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - On Tuesday, the EC2510 main contract opened higher at 1454 points, showed a volatile upward trend. Although the intraday gain narrowed, it further rose in the late session, with a nearly 18% intraday increase and a closing price of 1655.6 points, up 15.38% [2]. Trading Logic - The significant rise in the main European line futures on Tuesday, with the 10 - contract rising by over 15%, was mainly due to spot quotes. The CMA's online quotes for large containers in late August increased by nearly $1000 compared to the first half of August, indicating a potential delay in the peak - season rhythm this year compared to last year. The price difference between the 10 and 08 contracts was adjusted, and the 12 - contract also rose significantly [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Quotes**: As of July 16, Maersk's quotes were $1780 - 1982/TEU and $2960 - 3262/TEU, slightly up from before; CMA's quotes were $2035 - 3135/TEU and $3645 - 5345/TEU. The quotes of other airlines were relatively stable [5][7]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of July 15, the global container total capacity was 32.7 million TEU, an 8.2% increase year - on - year. In June, the eurozone's composite PMI was 50.2, manufacturing PMI was 49.4, and service PMI was 50.0; the US manufacturing PMI was 49, and the new order index was 46.4. The OECD leading index for the G7 group in June was 100.40 [7]. Outlook - The current futures price is mainly affected by spot quotes. Since the 10 - contract has become the main contract and the quotes are still in the July - August peak - season range, the futures will be affected by the upward sentiment of quotes. If other airlines follow the high - opening quotes, the main contract will continue to rise; if the quotes in August are conservative, the market may turn volatile. Due to the 12 - contract being a peak - season contract, investors considering long positions can prioritize it [11].

（央视财经《经济信息联播》）今年上半年，我国农产品和机电产品出口货值同比均保持增长。眼下正 是水果出口旺季，而随着国产水果在海外走俏，配套的冷链集装箱也迎来爆发式增长。中国味道和中国 制造，正在为外贸注入最"新鲜"的动能。 在江苏无锡阳山镇，一颗颗水蜜桃挂满枝头。为确保水蜜桃抵达海外时依然新鲜饱满，果农们精准把控 采摘时机，选择六成熟的果实进行出口。500箱水蜜桃在打包、装车后，即将发往新加坡。出口商告诉 记者，这个品种的水蜜桃，每盒在新加坡能卖到三百元。 新疆一星进出口贸易有限公司负责人 徐立芬：主要出口的国家是新加坡、马来西亚、泰国、印度尼西 亚这些东南亚国家，今年我们又新增了蒙古国。 乌鲁木齐海关所属乌昌海关查检科关员 玛依拉·木合特：新疆吐鲁番目前备案的出口水果果园30家，今 年截至目前，我们出口量达到4400多吨，比去年同期增长了11.8倍。 从东到西、从南到北，各地特色水果正走向越来越广阔的市场，丰富了海外消费者的"果篮子"。伴随水 果一同出口的，还有冷藏集装箱。在江苏太仓的一家冷藏集装箱箱厂，车间里机器轰鸣，一派繁忙景 象。企业负责人告诉记者，他们用高强度钢材降低了箱体的重量，这一创新在降低运输 ...

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve an operating income of 186 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of approximately 38.19% compared to 300.90 million yuan in the same period last year [2][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -131 million yuan, which is a larger loss compared to -87.28 million yuan in the same period last year [2][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is also expected to be -131 million yuan [3][6] Group 2 - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [4] - The previous year's operating income was 300.90 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was -87.28 million yuan [8] - The previous year's earnings per share were -0.06 yuan [9] Group 3 - The main reasons for the expected loss in the first half of 2025 include the impact of increased U.S. tariff barriers, more trade restrictions, and regional conflicts, leading to a significant slowdown in global trade volume growth [10] - The container industry prosperity index has decreased by approximately 20% compared to the same period last year, with new container inventory levels remaining historically high [10] - The average sales price of container flooring has decreased by about 25% compared to the same period last year, and the contracted sales volume has declined by approximately 2.3% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company, CIMC Enric, is leading the global market in tank container production, with a focus on green and intelligent manufacturing practices, aiming for a strategic transition to a high-end equipment technology platform [3][4]. Group 1: Market Position and Financial Performance - In 2024, China is expected to produce 40,000 tank containers, accounting for 95% of global output, with CIMC Enric holding the largest market share [3]. - In the first quarter of this year, CIMC Enric signed new orders worth 444 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.27% [3]. Group 2: Green and Intelligent Manufacturing - CIMC Enric is promoting a circular economy in tank container production, aiming for 100% recyclability of materials [4]. - The company has established the first fully automated powder coating line in the industry, significantly reducing pollution and achieving near-zero VOC emissions [4]. - A digital carbon management platform has been implemented to enhance carbon accounting efficiency and provide data for emissions verification [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The company is investing in smart manufacturing, focusing on flexible green factories and advanced manufacturing centers [5]. - Advanced technologies such as 3D adjustment machines and digital twin technology are being utilized to optimize production processes and enhance safety and efficiency [6]. - CIMC Enric has developed several industry standards and numerous patents, including AI models for safety and production optimization [7]. Group 4: Growth in Medical Equipment Sector - The medical equipment components segment has shown steady growth, with revenue of approximately 54.41 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 20.98% [8]. - The company aims to expand its high-end medical imaging business, which is expected to become a second growth curve alongside its core tank container business [8]. - As of the end of the first quarter, CIMC Enric reported a debt ratio of 14.05% and sufficient cash reserves, indicating a strong foundation for business expansion [8].

Group 1: Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 11% year-on-year to CNY 36 billion, driven by growth in most sectors including containers, logistics services, and energy [2][3] - Gross margin improved by 1.92 percentage points to 12.10%, while net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 550% to CNY 544 million, indicating a dual enhancement in performance and operations [3] Group 2: Marine Economy and Core Advantages - The marine engineering segment focuses on oil and gas equipment manufacturing, offshore wind power installation vessels, and specialized shipbuilding, aligning with national strategies for deep-sea, green, and safe technologies [3] - The company has achieved significant milestones, including the "Blue Whale 1/2" ultra-deepwater drilling platforms capable of operating at depths of 3,658 meters and drilling to 15,200 meters, showcasing advanced deep-sea equipment technology [3] - In 2024, the company secured orders for two FPSO hulls and one FLNG modification, enhancing its competitiveness in the global high-end marine engineering market [3] Group 3: Container Demand and Production - The easing of tariffs between China and the U.S. has led to increased demand for container orders, with the industry currently experiencing a full order book, and the company's container orders are scheduled for production until Q3 [4] - The global container fleet currently exceeds 53 million TEU, generating stable replacement demand annually [4] Group 4: Geopolitical Impact - Ongoing conflicts, such as the Israel-Iran situation, may lead to short-term oil price fluctuations, potentially boosting demand for the company's oil and gas equipment [4] - Disruptions in oil supply could increase the consumption of alternative energy sources like LNG, driving demand for the company's LNG-related equipment [4] - The company remains vigilant to geopolitical changes and is prepared to adjust its operational strategies to achieve its business objectives [4]

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 中电联口径截至 6 月 26 日纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比回落 1.8% ，同比读 数相较 5 月的 0.4% 略有回踩。近年来新能源发电占比迅速提升，火电的绝对增速对经济的代表性有所下 降。但我们可以把火电数据理解为发电量的一个大样本，其同口径增速的前后比较还是有意义的 。 第二， 工业部门开工率整体呈现淡季特征，结构上涨跌互现。其中钢铁、焦化等内需产业链开工率同环比低 于 5 月，汽车半钢胎及化工产业链相关的苯乙烯同比边际改善。截至 6 月第四周，全国 247 家高炉开工率 （期末值，下同）同比增长 0.7pct （前月同比 2.2pct ）；焦化企业开工率同比回落 0.4pct （前月同比 1.6pct ）。 PVC 开工率同比回落 1.6pct （前月同比 1.4pct ）；苯乙烯开工率同比回升 11.5pct （前月 同比 1.9pct ）；涤纶长丝江浙织机开工率同比回落 8.4pct （前月同比 -7.2pct ）；山东地炼开工率同比 回落 4.8pct （前月同比 -5. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of global logistics systems in response to economic globalization and trade tensions, emphasizing China's efforts to establish diversified international logistics channels amid challenges posed by traditional logistics routes controlled by certain countries [1][7]. Group 1: Trade and Economic Data - In the first five months of the year, China's total import and export value reached 17.94 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 3.8% [1]. - ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, accounting for 16.8% of foreign trade [1]. - The value orientation of industrial transfer to ASEAN has shifted from labor and land cost to tariff considerations, marking a new phase in China's industrial layout towards ASEAN [2]. Group 2: Industry Cooperation and Investment - Asian developing countries are now the main destinations for global foreign direct investment (FDI), with China and ASEAN accounting for 40% and 30% of Asia's FDI, respectively [2]. - Vietnam has transitioned to being a major market for Chinese exports, with Chinese enterprises dominating investments in the country [2]. - China has maintained its position as ASEAN's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, with significant cooperation in electronics, apparel, and automotive sectors [3]. Group 3: Logistics and Supply Chain Development - The complexity of logistics is increasing due to the growing distance between production enterprises and their supply chains, necessitating improvements in cross-border logistics capabilities [4]. - The container throughput at Vietnamese ports has surged, with a volume exceeding 21 million standard containers, highlighting the rapid growth of logistics in the region [5]. - The Chinese container industry is focusing on expanding production capacity in Southeast Asia, responding to the rising demand for logistics services [4][6]. Group 4: New Logistics Channels - China is accelerating the diversification of logistics channels to counteract trade barriers and control over key maritime routes by other nations [7]. - New logistics corridors, such as the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and the China-Iran railway, are being developed to enhance international supply chain dynamics [7]. - The construction of new logistics channels is expected to reshape the industrial layout and open up inland regions, promoting mutual benefits between logistics and industry [7].

Core Insights - The fifth China Tank Container Cooperation Development and Logistics Technology Application Conference was held in Nantong, Jiangsu on June 26, 2025, aimed at promoting multi-modal transport applications of tank containers and enhancing cooperation between logistics and cargo owner enterprises [1] - The conference highlighted the positive outlook for China's tank container industry, with a projected production of approximately 40,000 units in 2024, accounting for 95% of the global market share [1] - Major operating companies reported a total throughput of 606,000 TEU, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [1] Industry Overview - The target market for tank containers is shifting towards Asia, focusing on high-end service categories, with a development trajectory towards intelligence and sustainability [1] - CIMC Enric, a leading player in the industry, holds about 50% of the global market share and reported new orders worth 444 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17% [1] - The company is committed to "smart transformation and green development," having established a fully automated powder coating line and is advancing digital transformation through digital twin technology [1] Financial Health - As of the end of Q1 2025, CIMC Enric's debt ratio stood at 14.05%, indicating a strong financial position [1] - The company plans to align with policies focusing on "hard technology, critical bottlenecks, and domestic substitution," aiming to build a technology matrix for strategic advancement over the next 3-5 years [1] Future Outlook - The conference emphasized the importance of industry wisdom and technological innovation in driving the transformation of the tank container industry [1] - Future efforts will deepen multi-modal transport and international cooperation, aiming to unlock greater value [1]

例如，2024年9月份出台的"并购六条"明确提出，"鼓励上市公司综合运用股份、定向可转债、现金等支付工具实施并购重 组，增加交易弹性"，为企业境外并购提供了更灵活的操作空间。此外，今年4月份，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、 国家外汇局、上海市人民政府联合印发的《上海国际金融中心进一步提升跨境金融服务便利化行动方案》提出，"支持具备条 件的银行参照国际惯例，探索研究在上海自贸试验区为'走出去'企业提供非居民并购贷款服务，贷款金额不高于并购交易价款 80%，贷款期限不超过10年"，这一举措有效解决了企业境外并购的资金难题，为企业开展并购提供了坚实的金融支持。 另一方面，企业内生动力增强，驱动企业加速"购全球"。 近年来，A股上市公司以创新驱动为核心，扎实推进产业升级，以稳健经营应对风险挑战，以深化改革激发内生动力，发 展质量和投资价值持续提升。 中国上市公司协会最新数据显示，去年全市场上市公司实现营业收入71.98万亿元，四季度营收同比增长1.46%，环比增长 8.11%，上市公司业绩边际向好，近六成公司实现营收正增长；实现净利润5.22万亿元，4036家公司盈利，其中2194家公司盈 利正增长，553家公 ...