产品储备丰富，期待自研产品周期到来 ——三七互娱（002555.SZ）25 年中报点评 核心观点 ⚫ 我们预期 26 年公司在自研项目品类多元化有所优化，随着储备项目上线，自研游戏 占比得以提升从而优化毛利率。我们预测公司 25~27 年归母净利润为 27.63/32.26/36.56 亿（25~26 前值为 30.12/35.39 亿，因根据游戏上线进度、投放 数据调整收入、毛利率、费率，从而调整盈利预测），我们根据可比公司 25 年调整 后平均 P/E22X，给予公司目标价 27.50 元，维持"增持"评级。 盈利预测与投资建议 风险提示 流水不达预期风险；政策风险；买量成本提升风险；研发风险；投资收益风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 16,547 | 17,441 | 17,087 | 18,097 | 18,646 | | 同比增长 (%) | 0.9% | 5.4% | -2.0% | 5.9% | 3.0% | | 营 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company reported a decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, but a significant increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability despite revenue challenges [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.08%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.4 billion yuan, an increase of 10.72% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.243 billion yuan, down 5.33% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 31.24% to 851 million yuan [1][2] - The company announced a cash dividend of 2.10 yuan per share, totaling 926 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing 66% of net profit [1] Cost Management and Profitability - The significant improvement in Q2 2025 net profit was attributed to a reduction in sales expenses, which decreased by 19.3% to 1.99 billion yuan [1] - The sales expense ratio fell by 8.1 percentage points to 46.9%, primarily due to the transition of key games into maturity, leading to reduced marketing spend [1] - AI-driven advertising has enhanced the efficiency of user acquisition, with AI advertising accounting for 50% of total ad spend, improving efficiency by 70% [1] Product Performance and Future Outlook - The decline in Q2 revenue was influenced by the introduction of new games, which are still in the launch phase, compared to stable revenue from mature games in the previous year [2] - The company is set to launch its self-developed game "Douluo Dalu: Hunting World," which has already topped the iOS free chart, expected to contribute to revenue in Q3 [2] - The company has a rich product pipeline, with a focus on the release schedule of new games, including various genres such as SLG and MMORPG [2] Investment Outlook - Projections for 2025-2027 indicate revenues of 18.838 billion, 20.322 billion, and 21.546 billion yuan, with net profits of 2.931 billion, 3.334 billion, and 3.819 billion yuan respectively [2] - The company is expected to maintain a "buy" rating due to its recovering user acquisition costs and promising new game performance [2]

三七互娱表示，目前公司仍深耕MMORPG、SLG、卡牌、模拟经营品类，并持续开拓了更加多元化、 轻度化的产品类型，其后续储备的重点产品高达二十余款，覆盖东方玄幻、西方魔幻、生存等各式题 材，包括日式Q版MMORPG《代号MLK》、写实三国SLG《奇谋三国》、美式卡通生存SLG《代号 XSSLG》、东方玄幻SLG《代号GMSLG》、古风水墨模拟经营《赘婿》、东方玄幻RPG《代号斗 破》、东方玄幻RPG《斗罗大陆：零》等，均在积极推进产品上线进度。 稳健的业绩表现和充裕的现金流，为三七互娱持续提升投资者回报提供了坚实基础。公司通过多年稳定 的现金分红，结合股份回购和高管增持，构建了"分红+回购+增持"的立体回报体系。数据显示，过去 三个会计年度，公司累计现金分红总额达到57.78亿元，近三次回购总金额超过7亿元。自2024年起，三 七互娱将分红频率由半年一次提升至每季度一次，并在今年继续延续这一连续季度分红规划，彰显分红 政策的稳定性与持续性，增强投资者对公司发展的信心。 据公司公告显示，2025年，三七互娱新品频出，产品表现优异。公司全球发行的移动游戏最高月流水约 22亿元。其中，《时光大爆炸》1月APP首发荣 ...

Group 1 - The game ETF (159869) has experienced a narrow fluctuation, currently up by approximately 0.5%, with notable stocks such as Youzu Interactive hitting the daily limit, and others like Iceberg Network and Light Media rising over 1% [1] - The game ETF has seen continuous net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days, accumulating a total of 2.195 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] - In July, the approval volume of game licenses remained high, with 127 games approved, despite a decrease of 20 from June, maintaining a robust issuance level [1] Group 2 - The gaming sector is undergoing multiple catalysts including AI, content, and commercialization model transformations, with the game ETF tracking the performance of the A-share listed companies in the animation and gaming industry [2] - The annual gaming event ChinaJoy is approaching, presenting potential investment opportunities in the game ETF [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating a projected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the broader market within the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the issuance of game licenses remains high, with 127 domestic games and 7 imported games approved in July 2025. This reflects a robust supply side and a stable trend towards normalization in license issuance [2][7]. - Key titles that received approval include "Kingshot" by Diandian Interactive, which is expected to leverage its success in overseas markets to become a significant product in the domestic SLG (Simulation and Strategy Game) sector [2][3]. - Tencent's "The Finals," a PC-based FPS game, is also noted for its potential to become a dark horse in the FPS market, given its unique gameplay and adaptation for domestic players [3]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of established IPs like "Diablo IV" and "Marvel's Secret Wars," which are anticipated to perform well in the domestic market due to their established fan bases and innovative gameplay mechanics [4][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Events - In July 2025, the National Press and Publication Administration announced the approval of 127 domestic games and 7 imported games, maintaining a high issuance rate [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The report indicates that 884 domestic games have been approved year-to-date, with July's approvals slightly down from June but still at a high level. Notable titles include "Kingshot," "The Finals," and "Diablo IV" [2][4]. - The report suggests that the gaming industry is on a recovery path, with a consistent release of licenses and a focus on diverse product offerings from leading companies [7]. Company-Specific Insights - Diandian Interactive's "Kingshot" is highlighted for its innovative gameplay that combines tower defense and simulation elements, aiming to cater to domestic players' preferences [2]. - Tencent's adaptation of "The Finals" is expected to enhance player experience through new modes and anti-cheat systems, positioning it well in the competitive FPS market [3]. - "Marvel's Secret Wars" is noted for its unique blend of strategy card and chess elements, leveraging its strong IP to attract players [4][7].