证券研究报告·公司点评报告·游戏Ⅱ 三七互娱（002555） 2025 年半年报点评：业绩超预期，存量游戏 利润释放，新游储备充沛 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 16,547 | 17,441 | 17,912 | 18,528 | 18,915 | | 同比（%） | 0.86 | 5.40 | 2.70 | 3.43 | 2.09 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,659 | 2,673 | 2,860 | 3,086 | 3,189 | | 同比（%） | (10.01) | 0.54 | 7.01 | 7.87 | 3.36 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.29 | 1.39 | 1.44 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 16.19 | 16.11 | 15.05 | 13.95 | 13.50 | [Table_Tag] [Table_ ...

证券研究报告 三七互娱 (002555 CH) 25H1 新品拉动，长线与境外产品稳健，贯彻战略提升竞争力 25H1 公司移动游戏业务收入 82.39 亿元，同比下降 8.03%。25H1 公司全 球发行的移动游戏最高月流水约 22 亿元。2025 年初公司《时光大爆炸》 《英雄没有闪》等多款产品陆续上线，且表现优异。长线产品方面，《霸业》 《寻道大千》《叫我大掌柜》《时光杂货店》《斗罗大陆：魂师对决》《凡 人修仙传：人界篇》等长线产品持续贡献营收。境外收入 27.24 亿元，同 比下降 6.01%，占总收入比重 32.10%，《Puzzles ＆ Chaos》《Puzzles ＆ Survival》表现依旧较强。公司自研储备多款精品手游，未来将贯彻"精 品化、多元化、全球化"战略，平衡长线产品维护与新产品开发，提升市场 核心竞争力。 产品及 IP 储备丰富，升级 AI 能力 2025 年 7 月，公司自研游戏《斗罗大陆：猎魂世界》开启公测，该产品作 为斗罗 IP 首款 3D 写实大世界 MMORPG，贯彻公司精品化战略。后续公 司已储备《斗破苍穹》《诡秘之主》《斗罗大陆》等多个 IP 的游戏改编版 权。产品 ...

Core Insights - The mobile gaming market in China is experiencing significant growth, with mobile game revenue expected to increase by 5.01% year-on-year in 2024, while mini-program games are projected to grow by an impressive 99.18% [1][3][10] - Major platforms like WeChat and Douyin are leading in mini-game user engagement, with WeChat's mini-games reaching over 500 million monthly active users [8][11] - The competition among game developers is intensifying, with traditional game companies increasingly entering the mini-game space to leverage their existing IPs and resources [14][16] Market Growth - The mini-game market is predicted to reach a scale of 61 billion by 2025, driven by the increasing popularity of lightweight, easily accessible games [1][3] - Mini-games are attracting a diverse range of developers, including those previously focused on app or PC games, creating a vibrant market ecosystem [3][6] Platform Strategies - WeChat and Douyin are focusing on retaining users and increasing traffic through mini-games, with both platforms hosting industry events to showcase their ecosystems [4][6] - WeChat's mini-game platform was launched in 2017, and it has since become a fertile ground for developers, benefiting from its social networking capabilities [8][20] User Engagement - Users on WeChat engage with an average of six mini-games monthly, with daily online time increasing by 10% year-on-year [8] - Douyin's mini-games have seen a 130% growth rate, with strong retention and monetization metrics [10][11] Developer Competition - Approximately 70% of listed gaming companies have entered the mini-game sector, leveraging their technological and resource advantages [14][16] - Major gaming companies are increasingly investing in marketing for mini-games, with daily advertising expenditures surpassing those for traditional mobile games [16][18] Monetization Strategies - Mini-games utilize various monetization models, including advertising, in-app purchases, and hybrid models, which are proving effective for traditional game companies [14][23] - The success of mini-games like "Jump Jump" and "Sheep Got Sheep" demonstrates the potential for high returns on low initial investments [20][23] Ecosystem Development - The competitive landscape is evolving, with platforms like Alipay and Meituan also entering the mini-game space, although their focus remains more supplementary compared to WeChat and Douyin [10][11] - The interconnectivity between platforms is being explored, with Douyin allowing links to WeChat mini-games, promoting a collaborative growth environment [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and popularity of mini-games in China, particularly on platforms like WeChat, which have reached a user base of 1 billion. This trend is seen as a significant shift in the gaming landscape, overshadowing traditional mobile apps and games [1][2]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - Mini-games have become a dominant force in the gaming industry, with projections estimating the market size to reach 61 billion by 2025, a tenfold increase over the past seven years [2]. - The active user base of mini-games surpassed that of traditional mobile apps for the first time in the first half of 2024, indicating a shift in user engagement [4]. - Mini-games are now the primary drivers of advertising spending in the gaming sector, with daily ad spending reaching approximately 94 million for mini-games, slightly exceeding that of mobile apps [4]. Group 2: User Experience and Advertising - Players often express frustration over the frequency of ads in mini-games, which can disrupt gameplay. The cycle of ads leads to players experiencing multiple games in a short time [2]. - The current ad monetization model for mini-games is primarily based on in-app purchases (IAP), with a ratio of 4:1 compared to in-app advertising (IAA) [6]. - Efforts are being made to improve user experience by reducing intrusive ads and exploring new ad formats that do not interrupt gameplay [9]. Group 3: Developer Insights and Challenges - Developers face challenges in balancing monetization with user experience, as excessive ads can deter players. The focus is on creating engaging content that retains users [9][11]. - The overlap between mini-game users and traditional mobile game users remains low, around 10%, suggesting distinct user bases for each category [13]. - The industry is witnessing a push towards innovation and quality, with a focus on both technical advancements and creative gameplay [17][18].

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth of mini-games on platforms like WeChat, with user numbers reaching 1 billion in the past year, positioning them as a dominant time-killing tool across the internet [1][2] - The success of mini-games is attributed to their unique blend of casual and challenging gameplay, as exemplified by the game "Sheep Has a Sheep," which achieved significant engagement and revenue [1] - The mini-game market is projected to reach a scale of 61 billion by 2025, marking a tenfold increase over the past seven years [2] Market Dynamics - Mini-games have surpassed traditional mobile apps in active user numbers for the first time in the first half of 2024, with projections indicating continued growth at the expense of mobile apps and web games [4] - Advertising spending on mini-games has also overtaken that of mobile apps, with daily expenditures reaching approximately 94 million for mini-games compared to 90 million for mobile apps [4] Monetization Strategies - The primary monetization method for mini-games remains in-app purchases (IAP), with a ratio of 4:1 compared to in-app advertising (IAA) [6] - The article discusses ongoing efforts to balance monetization with user experience, including exploring less intrusive advertising formats and incentivizing longer gameplay [10][11] User Engagement and Experience - The overlap between mini-game users and mobile app users remains low at around 10%, indicating distinct user bases for each category [15] - The article raises concerns about the impact of frequent ad interruptions on user experience, with efforts underway to implement features like "play later" to enhance engagement [12][13] Industry Evolution - The mini-game trend is seen as a catalyst for innovation within the gaming industry, driving both technical advancements and creative gameplay [19][20] - The integration of AI in game development is highlighted, with applications in art creation and user behavior analysis, although challenges remain in maintaining product quality [16][17]

Core Insights - Guangdong has launched six major cultural industry policy packages, including measures to promote the high-quality development of the online gaming industry, focusing on supporting original creations, optimizing the business environment, and enhancing service mechanisms [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Revenue - In 2024, the revenue of Guangzhou's gaming industry is projected to reach 140.67 billion yuan, accounting for 43.2% of the national total, marking a historic high [2][8] - The gaming industry in Guangzhou is expected to accelerate further in 2025 due to favorable policies, technological advancements, and talent aggregation [2] Group 2: Industry Ecosystem and Development - Guangzhou has established a complete industry ecosystem from content creation to global operations, with the "Game First Street" in Tianhe District housing major companies like NetEase and over 200 smaller firms [2] - Recent policies aim to promote the construction of gaming and esports industry parks, encouraging companies to participate in creating spaces for research, incubation, and events [2] Group 3: Emerging Trends in Gaming - The small program gaming sector is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 182.3% from 2022 to 2024, positioning it as a lucrative market [3] - Guangzhou is home to 28 companies listed in the "2024 China Mini Game Top 100 Enterprises," the highest in the country, with successful titles like "Puzzles & Survival" and "Little Heroes" [3][8] Group 4: Focus on Quality and Cultural Integration - Several companies in Guangzhou are producing high-quality games that incorporate traditional Chinese culture, such as "Call Me the Boss" which integrates elements from the Song Dynasty [6] - The gaming industry is encouraged to embed cultural elements deeply into game design, with plans to explore modern cultural integration with traditional themes [6] Group 5: International Expansion and Collaboration - The new policy measures emphasize building an overseas industry cluster and alliances to promote Guangdong's original games in international markets [5] - Companies like Ganwan Games are looking to collaborate within the Greater Bay Area to enhance the gaming industry's ecosystem [5] Group 6: Technological Innovation - The policy measures support technological innovation in gaming, focusing on areas like virtual engine development and data security [7] - Companies are actively integrating AI and big data into their operations, with examples like NetEase's AI model arena in "Nirvana in Fire" [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share gaming industry in China is experiencing a structural recovery in Q1 2025 after policy adjustments and market reshuffling in 2024, with a reported revenue of 85.704 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.99% [1] Industry Overview - The gaming industry has transitioned from extensive growth to a "technology-driven content" phase, with AI and globalization as the two core tracks for future development [2] - The market landscape is increasingly polarized, with only 7 out of 17 listed gaming companies achieving growth in both revenue and profit in Q1 2025 [2] Company Performance - Century Huatong led the industry with a revenue growth of 91.12%, reaching 8.145 billion yuan, marking a historical high [3] - Youzu Network reported a revenue of 359 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.29%, with a net profit of 24.7035 million yuan, up 43.74% [3] - 37 Interactive Entertainment experienced a decline in both revenue and net profit, with Q1 2025 revenue at 4.243 billion yuan, down 10.67%, and net profit at 549 million yuan, down 10.87% [3] - Perfect World saw a significant turnaround with a revenue of 2.023 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.22%, and returned to profitability [4] - Tencent and NetEase maintained stable revenue growth of 10% or more, showcasing strong market competitiveness [4] Market Dynamics - The outflow of gaming companies to overseas markets has become essential as domestic user growth plateaus, with overseas revenue becoming a core growth engine [5] - Century Huatong's overseas revenue reached 11.367 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 50.26% of total revenue [6] - Emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Latin America are becoming new growth points due to increased smartphone penetration and unique cultural preferences [7] Technological Advancements - The integration of generative AI technologies has significantly optimized efficiency across the gaming industry, impacting everything from development to operations [8] - Tencent reported a 24% increase in gaming revenue to 59.5 billion yuan in Q1 2025, supported by AI applications [9] - 37 Interactive Entertainment indicated that over 80% of its 2D art assets and over 30% of its 3D models were generated with AI, enhancing its competitive edge in a rapidly evolving market [10]

Group 1 - The company announced a cash dividend plan for Q1 2025, proposing a distribution of 2.10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 462 million yuan (before tax) [2] - The mid-year cash dividend plan for 2025 includes a maximum total distribution of 1.5 billion yuan (before tax) across three periods, with each period not exceeding 500 million yuan [2] - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 4.243 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 549 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 10.67% and 10.87% respectively [2] Group 2 - The company has a rich product pipeline in various genres such as MMORPG, SLG, card games, and simulation management, with titles like "Douluo Dalu: Hunting Soul World" and "Zhui Xu" [3] - The product portfolio includes diverse themes ranging from Western fantasy to Eastern mythology, and the company is actively advancing the launch of several mobile games that have received domestic game licenses [3]

Core Insights - The mini-game "Screw Tightening" has gained significant popularity through social media, with users engaging in playful banter about its difficulty, leading to viral growth [2][3] - Major gaming companies like 37 Interactive Entertainment and Giant Network have benefited from the mini-game trend, contributing positively to their financial reports in 2024 [2][5] Industry Trends - The mini-game market has expanded significantly, with both large and small developers exploring new gameplay mechanics, resulting in a diverse range of offerings [2][4] - The rise of mini-games is attributed to their easy accessibility and low development costs, appealing particularly to middle-aged players with limited gaming time but strong spending power [4][5] Company Performance - Giant Network's mini-game "King's Journey" attracted over 25 million new users and generated 600 million yuan in revenue since its launch in February 2024 [5][6] - Century Huachuang's subsidiary, Point Interactive, reported approximately 2.245 billion yuan in revenue from mini-games like "Endless Winter" in 2024 [6] Monetization Strategies - Mini-games primarily monetize through IAA (In-App Advertising), IAP (In-App Purchases), and mixed models, with advertising being a key revenue source due to regulatory constraints on direct charging [6][7] - The potential for overseas expansion is highlighted as a significant opportunity for mini-games, with domestic companies poised to fill gaps in the international market [6][7] Future Outlook - The mini-game sector is expected to continue growing, with established IPs being adapted into mini-games, enhancing user engagement and retention [7][8] - Analysts predict that the convenience and social sharing aspects of mini-games will attract a broader audience, including non-gamers, contributing to market growth [8]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.243 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 10.67% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.45% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 549 million yuan, down 10.87% year-over-year and down 29.19% quarter-over-quarter [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 536 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 12.90% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 24.90% [1] Group 2: Product Development and Pipeline - The key product "Time Explosion" ranked 4th in the WeChat mini-game sales list, while "Heroes Have No Flash" entered the iOS sales top five upon launch and topped the WeChat mini-game sales list in April [2] - The company has built a comprehensive pipeline with key products like "Douluo Dalu: Hunting Soul World," "The Son-in-Law," and "Code MLK" all obtaining domestic game licenses, indicating a potential for sustained product cycles [2] - The company is implementing refined operational strategies to extend the lifecycle of mature products like "Seeking the Way to the Universe" and "Douluo Dalu: Soul Master Showdown," which may enhance operational performance stability [2] Group 3: AI Technology Integration - The company has developed an in-house game industry large model "Xiao Qi" and an external advanced model cluster, creating a complete technical system with over 40 AI capabilities, significantly improving R&D efficiency and operational precision [3] - AI technology has been applied to achieve intelligent production and application of various content forms, which may become a core competitive advantage in the new industry landscape [3] - Continuous investment in AI is expected to enhance the company's ability to commercialize AI products and provide solid support for medium to long-term performance growth [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 to be 2.85 billion, 3.18 billion, and 3.48 billion yuan, respectively, with slight downward adjustments of 1%-2% due to product revenue instability [4] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is expected to be 17 times, while the company is assigned a PE of 15 times for 2025, maintaining a target price of 19.33 yuan, slightly down from the previous 19.53 yuan [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its future product launch uncertainties [4]