传媒/游戏Ⅱ 完美世界（002624.SZ） 中报业绩大增，看好新游上线及影视修复驱动成长 2025 年 08 月 27 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/26 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 16.37 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 16.72/6.96 | | 总市值(亿元) | 317.57 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 299.20 | | 总股本(亿股) | 19.40 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 18.28 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 195.35 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 完美世界 沪深300 《预计 2025H1 同比大幅扭亏，关注 《异环》上线进展—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.7.17 相关研究报告 《《诛仙世界》《异环》开启新品周期， 业绩或迎反转—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.11.7 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 中报业绩大增，关注重磅新游《异 ...

Core Insights - In July, several Chinese mobile games performed exceptionally well in overseas markets, with Century Huatong's two games topping the revenue chart [1][3] - The strategy game "Kingshot" achieved a 34% month-on-month revenue increase, surpassing $200 million in total global revenue [1][3] - The success of these games is attributed to innovative gameplay and effective operational strategies [1][3] Group 1: Performance of Key Games - "Kingshot" by Century Huatong's Didi Interactive continued its strong growth, ranking second in the overseas mobile game revenue chart [1][3] - The merging game "Tasty Travels: Merge Game" saw a 52% month-on-month revenue increase, entering the revenue chart at 29th place [3] - Florere Game's "Last Z: Survival Shooter" experienced a 44% revenue increase, reaching 7th place in the revenue chart [4] Group 2: Impact of Updates and IP Collaborations - miHoYo's "Honkai: Star Rail" launched a new version, resulting in a 290% increase in overseas revenue and climbing to 4th place in the revenue chart [5][7] - Tencent's "PUBG MOBILE" saw a 27% revenue increase due to a new version featuring a Transformers collaboration, returning to 3rd place in the revenue growth chart [7] - The game "Gossip Harbor" by Lemon Microfun significantly increased its advertising efforts, leading to an 84% rise in downloads and reaching 7th place in the download chart [12] Group 3: New Game Releases - The new game "Persona 5: Phantom Night" debuted in July, entering the revenue chart at 23rd place due to strong player engagement [8] - "Silver and Scarlet," a new title by Mutong Technology, achieved 4.5 times the revenue of the previous month, marking a significant entry into the global market [8] - Other notable new games include "Staff Sword Legend" and "Douluo Dalu: Soul Hunting World," which also made their first appearances in the revenue chart [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 480-520 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a non-recurring net profit of 290-330 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [2][4]. - The second quarter of 2025 is projected to yield a net profit of approximately 200 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of about 150 million yuan [2][4]. - The stable performance of existing games like "Zhu Xian World" and the growth trend in esports revenue are contributing to the company's profitability in Q2 [5]. - The second test of the new game "Yihuan" has progressed smoothly, and the overseas performance of "Persona: Nightshade" has been impressive, indicating positive developments in new game launches [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of approximately 210 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of about 180 million yuan in Q2 2025, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase from 160 million yuan in Q1 [5]. - The esports business continues to grow, with revenue trends showing year-on-year increases [5]. Game Development - "Yihuan," an open-world RPG, has completed its second domestic test with significant improvements and positive market feedback, with expectations for further testing within the year [7]. - The new version of "Zhu Xian World" launched on July 9, 2025, is anticipated to drive revenue growth [7]. - The MMORPG sequel "Zhu Xian 2" is scheduled for public testing on August 7, 2025, reinforcing the company's position in this game genre [7]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 740 million yuan and 1.46 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 37.9 times and 19.3 times [7].

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The US inflation data for June 2025 shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, exceeding market expectations [2][6][7] - Core CPI also increased by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a synchronized rebound in inflation [2][7][8] - The overall inflation level is expected to continue rising, driven by core inflation and the effects of tariffs [8][9][10] Group 2: Industry Insights - Electronics - The resumption of H20 supply is expected to accelerate capital expenditure (Capex) among domestic internet companies, which had previously faced uncertainty due to the H20 embargo [3][13] - With the uncertainty lifted, project tenders are likely to restart, leading to the release of orders in the domestic computing power industry chain [3][13] - Domestic internet companies are projected to significantly increase their Capex, with Alibaba planning to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years [15] Group 3: Company Insights - Perfect World - Perfect World is expected to achieve a significant turnaround in profitability in H1 2025, with projected net profit ranging from 480 to 520 million yuan [4][19] - The core gaming business is performing steadily, with anticipated net profit contributions from new game launches and cost-reduction measures [19][20] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its clear product pipeline and the expected performance of its upcoming game "异环" [4][19][20]

Macro Strategy - The "urban renewal" initiative is expected to achieve a total investment of at least 4.48 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, averaging nearly 900 billion yuan annually. The main sources of potential demand will come from the renovation of urban villages, old residential communities, and urban infrastructure upgrades [1][18]. - The renovation of old residential communities and urban infrastructure is projected to contribute at least 2.35 trillion yuan in new investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, supported by over 470 billion yuan in central budget investments and special bonds [1][18]. - The urban village renovation is estimated to contribute 2.13 trillion yuan in new investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, assuming a "half-demolition, half-renovation" approach for the remaining self-built houses [1][18]. Economic Data - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% for the first half of the year, indicating a strong performance compared to the previous year. However, the nominal GDP growth rate was lower at 3.9% for Q2 [2][20]. - Consumer spending showed resilience, with retail sales growth of 5.0% in the first half, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, while real estate sales showed improvement compared to the previous year [2][20]. - Industrial production increased, with the industrial added value in June rising to 6.8%, supported by strong external demand, particularly in the equipment manufacturing sector [2][20]. Fixed Income - The bond market experienced a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.641% to 1.666% during the week of July 7-11, 2025, influenced by stock market performance [6]. - The issuance of green bonds totaled approximately 34.825 billion yuan during the week of July 7-11, 2025, while the trading volume of green bonds in the secondary market reached 62.3 billion yuan [7]. - The issuance of secondary capital bonds amounted to 53 billion yuan during the same week, with a total trading volume of approximately 185.5 billion yuan in the secondary market [8]. Company Analysis - The company "锅圈" is expected to achieve revenue of 72.9 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, and a net profit of 4.0 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 71% [9]. - "水井坊" anticipates a revenue decline of approximately 12.8% in H1 2025, with a net profit drop of about 56.5%, indicating challenges in the current market environment [10]. - "新和成" is projected to achieve net profits of 60 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 2%, supported by ongoing project developments in nutrition and new materials [11]. - "博瑞医药" has received IND approval for its oral drug BGM0504, which is expected to enter clinical trials soon, indicating strong potential in the diabetes treatment market [12][13]. - "炬芯科技" reported a revenue increase of 59% in Q2 2025, driven by the successful implementation of AI technology in its product offerings [14]. - "美图公司" has adjusted its profit forecast slightly downward but remains optimistic about its AI-driven growth strategy, projecting net profits of 8.54 billion yuan in 2025 [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 is in line with expectations, with a focus on the progress of the game "异环" (Yihuan) launch [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.80-5.20 billion yuan in 2025H1, with a significant turnaround compared to the previous year [7] - The game "诛仙世界" (Zhuxian World) is steadily releasing profits, and cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures are showing initial results [7] - The new game "异环" has performed well in its second test, and the company is actively monitoring its launch schedule [7] - The film and television business is focusing on quality over quantity, with a strategy to develop short dramas [7] - The earnings forecast has been adjusted upwards, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 being 0.40, 0.74, and 0.90 yuan respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 7,791 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.57% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 491.48 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 64.31% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is estimated at 0.25 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 57.27 [1] - The company anticipates a significant recovery in net profit in 2025, with a projected net profit of 775.17 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 160.20% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Perfect World has returned to profitability in the first half of the year, with expected net profit of 480 to 520 million yuan, primarily driven by its game business and the success of key products like "Zhu Xian World" and the anticipated "Yihuan" [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 480 to 520 million yuan in the first half of the year, with a non-recurring profit of approximately 290 to 330 million yuan [2][3]. - The gaming segment is projected to contribute the entire net profit, with a similar range of 480 to 520 million yuan, and a non-recurring profit of 320 to 360 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year [2][3]. Game Development and Expectations - The success of "Zhu Xian World," launched in December 2024, has significantly contributed to the company's performance, generating over 400 million yuan in revenue within the first 30 days of its public release [3]. - The upcoming game "Yihuan" is expected to be a major hit, with analysts predicting it could become a flagship IP for Perfect World, potentially generating over 5 billion yuan in its first year [5]. E-sports and Other Business Segments - The e-sports business has shown steady growth, supported by high-quality and frequent events, contributing to stable revenue [3]. - The film and television segment is also expected to achieve a net profit of around 40 million yuan, with recent productions like "Qian Duo Tao Hua Yi Shi Kai" and "Zhi Ci Jiang Hu Meng" performing well [4]. Internal Adjustments and Anti-corruption Measures - The company has initiated a series of internal adjustments aimed at optimizing operations and reducing costs, which have begun to show results [3]. - Perfect World has also intensified its anti-corruption efforts, reporting multiple violations of company policies and contracts, leading to legal actions against involved employees and suppliers [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Perfect World Co., Ltd. has reported a turnaround in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, projecting a net profit of between 480 million to 520 million yuan, compared to a loss in the same period last year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 480 million to 520 million yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 290 million to 330 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a significant recovery from last year's losses of 177.86 million yuan and 235.40 million yuan respectively [2][3]. - Basic earnings per share are projected to be between 0.25 yuan and 0.27 yuan, a recovery from a loss of 0.09 yuan per share in the previous year [3]. Key Drivers of Performance - The turnaround is primarily attributed to the successful launch of the self-developed MMORPG "Zhu Xian World," which was released in December 2024, contributing positively to the company's revenue in the first half of 2025 [2][3]. - The esports segment has shown steady growth, supported by high-quality and frequent events, continuing to contribute stable revenue [3]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures implemented by the company have begun to yield positive results [3]. Future Prospects - Upcoming game releases include the supernatural urban open-world RPG "Yihuan," which has begun testing in both domestic and overseas markets, and the JRPG "Persona: Nightshade," which has received positive feedback in various international markets [6][8]. - The MMORPG sequel "Zhu Xian 2" is scheduled for public release on August 7, 2025, which is expected to strengthen the company's position in this genre [8]. Other Business Segments - The film and television segment is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 40 million yuan, with a net profit of around 20 million yuan after excluding non-recurring items for the first half of 2025 [8].

Core Insights - Perfect World has launched the mobile game "Persona 5: The Phantom X" (P5X), which has received positive initial performance, particularly in the Japanese market, despite ongoing internal challenges related to anti-corruption investigations [1][32]. Group 1: Game Launch Performance - P5X was officially launched on June 26, 2023, in 102 countries and regions, achieving over 200,000 pre-registrations prior to launch [1]. - On the day before launch, P5X reached the top 20 in the iOS free game charts across 67 regions, including Japan and the US, and topped the Steam download charts [2]. - The game accumulated approximately 1.81 million downloads within the first ten days, with the highest contributions from the US (36.64%), Japan (24.47%), and Brazil (5.4%) [9]. Group 2: Revenue Trends - The first-day revenue for the Japanese server was approximately 5.03 million, peaking at 9.62 million on the second day, before stabilizing around 2.6 million [9]. - The total estimated revenue for both the Japanese and international servers is around 75.8 million, with the Japanese server contributing 73.44% of this total [11]. - The game has shown a significant decline in daily downloads and revenue after the initial surge, particularly in the international market [7][9]. Group 3: Company Financials and Challenges - Perfect World reported a revenue of 7.79 billion in 2023, a decrease of 7.91% year-on-year, with a net profit of 491 million, down 69.21% [20]. - For 2024, the company anticipates a further decline in revenue to 5.57 billion, representing a 28.5% decrease, and a net loss of 1.29 billion [21]. - The company has faced increased competition in the gaming market, leading to a decline in long-standing product revenues and a need for better market foresight [20][22]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - In response to financial challenges, Perfect World has focused on evaluating ongoing projects and has made decisions to halt underperforming titles [22]. - The company has reduced its workforce significantly, with a decrease of 1,849 employees by the end of 2024 [24]. - Perfect World is also increasing its overseas revenue share, which currently stands at less than 15%, with P5X and other upcoming titles expected to play a crucial role in this strategy [24][32].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 ChinaJoy will be held from August 1 to August 4 in Shanghai, showcasing a significant number of exhibitors and events focused on digital interactive entertainment and gaming industry advancements [1][10]. Exhibition Aspects: Major Works and Technological Innovations - The theme for this year's ChinaJoy is "Gathering What You Love," with 743 companies registered to participate, including 237 foreign enterprises from 37 countries, representing 31.8% of total exhibitors [10][11]. - The BTOC Interactive Entertainment Hall will feature over 283 companies, while the BTOB Business Negotiation Hall will host more than 460 companies, with foreign enterprises making up 45.2% of the latter [11]. - Notable exhibitors include Tencent, NetEase, and Perfect World, showcasing popular games and new releases, with many offering on-site play experiences [13][15][16]. Conference Aspects: Industry Leaders and Global Collaboration - The event will host several key conferences, including the China International Digital Entertainment Industry Conference (CDEC) and the China Game Developers Conference (CGDC), featuring hundreds of industry leaders and experts [19][20]. - CDEC will focus on new directions for industry development, with over 100 industry leaders expected to participate [19]. Event Activities: Engaging Competitions and Performances - The Cosplay Super League will cover 12 regions with nearly 30,000 participants, while the National Dance Group Ceremony will feature over 300 competitors [21]. Highlights of the Exhibition - The event will emphasize AI technology innovation and new consumer experiences, including a "Creator Zone" aimed at engaging younger audiences [22][23]. - The international presence is expected to increase, with foreign exhibitors making up 46.5% of the BTOB Business Negotiation Hall, marking a historical high [25]. Safety Measures: Ensuring a Secure Environment - A comprehensive safety management system will be implemented, including content review processes and on-site management protocols to ensure a safe and orderly event [31][33]. Ticketing Information: Early Bird Pricing - Early bird tickets for ChinaJoy will be available through various platforms starting July 2, with different phases for ticket sales [35].