2026 年 03 月 03 日 开源晨会 0303 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 石油石化 | 7.955 | | 煤炭 | 3.772 | | 有色金属 | 3.168 | | 国防军工 | 2.465 | | 通信 | 1.879 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 传媒 | -3.983 | | 计算机 | -2.882 | | 社会服务 | -2.676 | | 美容护理 | -2.443 | | 商贸零售 | -2.409 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | wumengdi@kysec.cn | | --- | | 证书编号：S0790521070001 | | 观点精粹 | | 总量视角 | | 【宏观经济】提质增效，科技突围——2026 年春季宏观展望-20260302 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 02 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年03月02日 华源晨会精粹 20260302 固定收益/银行 跨春节已过，长债或是机会——利率半月报：26 年 1 月债券总托管 规模环比上升 0.76 万亿元至 179.3 万亿元，较 25 年 12 月多增 0.46 万亿元。2 月 底长债有所回调，或主要系上海房地产政策放松引发券商及基金等交易盘止盈，我 们认为，交易盘止盈或是机会，情绪企稳后长债收益率有望再度回落。春节假日 9 天，全国国内出游 5.96 亿人次，较 25 年春节假日 8 天增加 0.95 亿人次；国内出游 总花费 8034.83 亿元，较 25 年+1264.81 亿元。美国和以色列 2 月 28 日对伊朗发动 军事打击，伊朗予以回击。国债收益率近一周多数上行。长债调整或是机会。近期 人民币明显升值，2 月初以来，美英德等发达国家 10Y 国债收益率下行较明显，美 10Y 国债收益率 2 月 27 日已跌破 4.0%，对中国债市构成利好。当前交易盘长债持 仓仍较少，PPI 同比回升为市场普遍预期，长 ...

行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 02 日 证券分析师 陈良栋 SAC：S1350524100003 chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 陈逸凡 SAC：S1350525040003 chenyifan@huayuanstock.com 周政宇 SAC：S1350525050006 zhouzhengyu@huayuanstock.com 许孟婕 SAC：S1350525120004 xumengjie@huayuanstock.com 联系人 证券研究报告 传媒 魏桢 weizhen@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 完美世界《异环》提档，Nano Banana2 发布 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——传媒互联网行业周报（2026.2.23-2026.2.27） 投资要点： 本周观点：【完美世界】超自然都市开放世界 RPG《异环》定档，将于国内 2026 年 4 月 23 日/海外 2026 年 4 月 29 日 PC/移动/主机三端上线，《异环》一定程 度实现 GTA 式开放世界×二游框架创新融合，题材新颖、副玩法类型多样、角 色羁绊互动深 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 传媒 Coding、Agent 和 AIGC 多模态三大主线，终将无惧吞噬 ——传媒互联网周观点 投资要点 传媒 报告日期：2026 年 03 月 02 日 行业评级: 看好(维持) 分析师：冯翠婷 执业证书号：S1230525010001 fengcuiting@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《AI 漫剧：国内蓝海爆发， 出海潜能无限》 2026.02.24 2 《春节前后多款游戏运营数据 创新高，产品大年逻辑持续》 2026.02.23 3 《2026 年电影春节档：票房 不及预期，内容质量仍为核心》 2026.02.23 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 资料来源：iFind、浙商证券研究所； ❑ 上周（2 月 24~27 日）申万传媒指数周跌幅-5.10%，同期上证指数周涨幅 +1.98%，恒生科技指数（2 月 23~27 日）周跌幅-1.41%。AI 应用演绎国产大模 型 token 出海、国内 agent 春节表现强劲、多模态大模型 Seedance 等主题，同 时受海外美股"AI 吞噬论"的影响 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 传媒 Coding、Agent 和 AIGC 多模态三大主线，终将无惧吞噬 ——传媒互联网周观点 投资要点 传媒 报告日期：2026 年 03 月 02 日 行业评级: 看好(维持) 分析师：冯翠婷 执业证书号：S1230525010001 fengcuiting@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《AI 漫剧：国内蓝海爆发， 出海潜能无限》 2026.02.24 2 《春节前后多款游戏运营数据 创新高，产品大年逻辑持续》 2026.02.23 3 《2026 年电影春节档：票房 不及预期，内容质量仍为核心》 2026.02.23 表1： 相关个股一览 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 概念 | 总市值 （亿元） | 1220至今涨幅 | 上周涨幅 | 上周交易额 | 周交易额占市值比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300058.SZ | 蓝色光标 | GEO | 664.19 | 116.63 | -2.63 | 294.73 | 44% | | 301171.SZ | 易点天下 | GEO ...

传媒 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 传媒 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《节后继续聚焦 AI 入口商业化、重磅 新游及长青游戏 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.2.23 《《异环》三测及字节 AI 视频模型惊 艳，继续布局游戏/多模态 AI 应用— 行业周报》-2026.2.8 《Moltbook、元宝、Genie3 出圈，继 续布局 AI 社交/游戏/营销—行业点评 报告》-2026.2.2 把握更确定方向，聚焦头部新游及核心 AI 应用 ——行业周报 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 《异环》定档 4.23 公测，或为潜在"爆款"，继续布局游戏，聚焦头部新游 完美世界旗下二次元超自然都市开放世界游戏《异环》已官宣将于 4 月 23 日开 启国服公测，届时同步上线 PC、安卓、iOS、Mac、鸿蒙、PS5 平台，海外公测 也将随后于 4 月 29 日开启。此前于 2.4-2.18 期间进行 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI industry and gaming sectors, indicating that recent market corrections may present better investment opportunities [12] - E-commerce sector shows mixed results, with Alibaba leading in AI advancements but facing pessimistic revenue growth expectations, leading to stock price fluctuations [16] - Social entertainment media, particularly Tencent and Bilibili, are expected to maintain strong growth, with Bilibili's advertising growth likely to outperform the overall internet advertising market [16] Group 2: E-commerce Insights - Alibaba's AI developments are significant, with the launch of the Qwen 3.5-Plus model, which has shown competitive performance at a lower cost, enhancing its market position [13] - Meituan is expected to face challenges due to intense competition in the food delivery sector, impacting profitability in the short term [16] Group 3: Gaming Sector Insights - The gaming sector is anticipated to maintain a favorable outlook, with new product launches expected to drive growth in 2026 [14] - Companies like Century Huatong and Perfect World are highlighted for their strong product pipelines and potential for revenue growth [18] Group 4: AI Developments - The report notes a growing concern about AI's impact on traditional industries, with a shift in market focus towards model technology pricing and capabilities [20] - The upcoming second quarter of 2026 is expected to see a new wave of model iterations, with domestic models catching up rapidly [20] Group 5: Advertising and Marketing - The advertising sector is seeing increased activity, with companies like Focus Media ramping up ad placements, particularly in consumer goods ahead of major events like the World Cup [18] - AI marketing is gaining traction, with companies like Titanium Technology preparing for an IPO, indicating strong growth potential in this area [19] Group 6: Media and Entertainment - The long video sector is stabilizing, with companies exploring new business avenues, while short video platforms like Kuaishou are benefiting from technological advancements [17] - The report emphasizes the importance of content production capabilities and project pipelines for companies in the film and television industry [19]

Group 1: Macro and Strategy Insights - The macro view for March indicates a gradual improvement in risk appetite, influenced by external factors such as the Iran conflict and expectations surrounding the US-China summit, which may lead to a more neutral market impact [7] - The strategy perspective suggests that the market lacks a clear main line, with a tendency for continued oscillation, recommending a flexible approach while waiting for trend opportunities [8] - The quantitative view highlights the absence of a main line in March, with market capitalization expected to decline further, presenting a potential opportunity for positioning [9] Group 2: March Gold Stock Portfolio - The selected gold stock portfolio for March includes: - Electronics: Shiyun Circuit - Consumer Electronics: Hongrida - Communication: Kexin Innovation Source - Media: Perfect World - Light Industry: Yingke Regeneration - Chemicals: Xinfengming - Coal: Hengyuan Coal Power - Non-ferrous: Salt Lake Co. - Machinery: Zoomlion - Agriculture: Youran Animal Husbandry [11] - The rationale for Shiyun Circuit is its deep ties with Tesla and potential benefits from emerging fields such as commercial aerospace and intelligent driving, which could lead to significant growth opportunities [11] - Hongrida is transitioning its focus towards AI chip cooling and optical communication, with expectations for substantial production scale in 2026, driven by recent advancements in 3D printing technology [14][15] - Kexin Innovation Source is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI liquid cooling solutions, with anticipated breakthroughs in both domestic and international markets [18][19] - Perfect World is expected to see revenue growth from its game "Yihuan," with projections indicating potential earnings exceeding market expectations [22][24] - Yingke Regeneration is forecasted to experience accelerated revenue growth due to the rising demand for easy-install plastic wall panels and the operational efficiency of its Vietnamese base [26][29] - Xinfengming is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in polyester filament profitability, supported by a slowdown in industry capacity expansion [32] - Hengyuan Coal Power is viewed as a premium coking coal asset, with expected price increases driven by global supply constraints [36][39] - Salt Lake Co. is expected to benefit from rising lithium prices and strong demand for potassium fertilizers, enhancing its market valuation [43][44] - Zoomlion is positioned for growth through its diversified machinery offerings and global expansion strategies, with a focus on non-excavation machinery [48][50] - Youran Animal Husbandry is set to benefit from a cyclical recovery in raw milk prices and beef cattle, with significant growth potential in both its raw milk and cattle businesses [55][56]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies within the technology sector, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance over the next 12 months [31]. Core Insights - The report highlights key companies in the technology sector, including Jiangsu Technology (Electronics, Communication, Computer, Media) as top picks for March 2026 [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in various sub-sectors, particularly in 3D printing, liquid cooling solutions, AI chips, and gaming [15][16][18][19][21]. Summary by Category Electronics - **Precision Electronics**: Expected to achieve a net profit of 0.8e-0.9e in 2025, a significant increase of 181.97%-192.21% year-on-year, driven by semiconductor orders and improved operational efficiency [15]. - **Han's Laser**: Anticipated explosive growth in 3D printing, with a potential market share increase due to demand from North American clients [15]. Communication - **Invech**: Projected net profits of 5.87 million, 10.47 million, and 15.35 million from 2025 to 2027, with a strong focus on liquid cooling solutions and overseas market expansion [16]. - **Rui Ming Technology**: Expected to recover from previous losses, with projected net profits of 3.81 million, 4.95 million, and 6.67 million from 2025 to 2027, driven by increased demand in commercial vehicle information systems [17]. Computer - **Haiguang Information**: Positioned as a leader in high-end CPUs and DCUs, benefiting from the growth of domestic AI computing power and collaboration with major tech firms [18]. - **Cambricon**: Anticipated to maintain strong growth in AI chip demand, supported by ongoing R&D and market trends [18]. Media - **Kaiying Network**: Expected to launch several new games in 2026, which are projected to drive revenue growth [19]. - **Perfect World**: Anticipated to release a new RPG game, "Yihuan," with high market expectations, contributing to future revenue growth [21].

2月27日，游戏板块早盘持续攀升，游戏ETF（159869）现涨近1.5%，截至发稿，盘中成交额已突 破6.7亿元。持仓股中，顺网科技、浙数文化、完美世界、冰川网络、盛天网络等涨幅居前；神州泰 岳、迅游科技、华立科技等跌幅居前。 =浙商证券指出，2026年春节假期前后，游戏板块不论是港美股上市公司还是A股上市公司及非上 市公司，旗下游戏运营数据均有较好表现或突破，彰显当前宏观经济环境下游戏板块的韧性以及2026年 游戏产品大年逻辑的持续兑现。行业整体景气度提升，非上市公司表现同样亮眼，多款游戏运营数据创 新高。 例如，腾讯控股旗下多品类游戏运营数据全面高增，《暗区突围》全球注册用户突破2.3亿并进入 畅销榜前列，《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等存量游戏通过内容更新实现收入环比高增；完美世界《异 环》预约数破2500万；世纪华通在休闲类游戏布局收获初现，相关游戏流水显著增长；《鹅鸭杀》春节 期间霸榜免费游戏榜单。这体现了行业产品大年逻辑的持续兑现。 游戏板块具备AI、内容、商业化模式变革多点催化，游戏ETF（159869）跟踪中证动漫游戏指数， AI应用含量全市场领先，精准覆盖A股动漫游戏产业的整体表现，当前游戏板块 ...