网龙（00777.HK） AI 赋能游戏教育，多元投资增厚业绩 2025 年 12 月 02 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,101 | 6,047 | 4,641 | 4,932 | 5,267 | | 同比(%) | (9.73) | (14.84) | (23.25) | 6.27 | 6.79 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 550.00 | 311.00 | 401.28 | 674.49 | 682.41 | | 同比(%) | (34.05) | (43.45) | 29.03 | 68.09 | 1.17 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.04 | 0.59 | 0.76 | 1.27 | 1.28 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 9.89 | 17.50 | 13.56 | 8.07 | 7.97 | 证券研究报告·海外公司深度·软件服务(HS) [Ta ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the integration of digital technology and cultural industries, particularly focusing on the gaming sector as a platform for innovative transmission and dissemination of traditional culture [1][5][6] Group 1: Cultural Integration through Gaming - The game "Conquer" by Wanglong has launched a new profession "Hero" and an annual expansion pack "Heroic Spirit," incorporating elements of Dunhuang art into its gameplay, thus creating a digital representation of the Silk Road [1][3] - The game allows players to engage in immersive tasks that transform them from mere observers of history to active participants in Silk Road civilization [3][5] Group 2: Innovative Cultural Transmission - This design breaks the traditional one-way model of cultural dissemination, enabling a dynamic transformation of Dunhuang culture through playable digital scenes, thus broadening its reach [5][6] - The integration of "gaming + cultural tourism" is emerging, with initiatives like "reservation for expansion pack unlocking physical tickets," effectively converting players' virtual cultural interests into real-world experiences [6] Group 3: Global Cultural Influence - As a significant player in enhancing national cultural soft power, the game "Conquer" has been instrumental in showcasing Chinese cultural elements globally since its launch in 2004 [6][8] - Successful cultural products like "Black Myth: Wukong" indicate a shift in cultural storytelling consumption and demonstrate China's capability to create globally resonant cultural products [8]

Group 1: Company Overview - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929), predicting a net profit of HKD 8.064 billion, HKD 10.089 billion, and HKD 11.006 billion for the fiscal years 2026-2028, with a target price of HKD 19.68 based on a 24x PE for FY26 [2][4] - Chow Tai Fook's retail value for FY26Q2 increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with mainland China showing a 3.0% increase and Hong Kong, Macau, and others showing an 11.4% increase [3][4] - The same-store sales turned positive across the board, with mainland China same-store sales up by 7.6%, and gold jewelry sales up by 10.6% with an average price of HKD 7,900, reflecting a 23% year-on-year increase [4][5] Group 2: Industry Insights - The report highlights the strong online growth for Chow Tai Fook, with e-commerce retail in mainland China increasing by 28.1% year-on-year, accounting for 6.7% of retail value and 15.5% of sales volume [5] - The report notes that the jewelry retail market is experiencing a structural shift, with the proportion of high-margin priced gold products in mainland China reaching 29.9%, up by 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, which is expected to enhance gross margins [4][5] - The gaming industry, represented by NetDragon (0777), is also highlighted for its stable growth, with projected revenues of CNY 48.6 billion, CNY 53.1 billion, and CNY 58.4 billion for 2025-2027, driven by strong IP operations and AI integration [6][7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NetDragon - **Industry**: Gaming and Education Technology - **Founded**: 1999, listed on Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2007 - **Key Milestones**: - 2013: Sold 91 Wireless for $1.9 billion - 2015: Acquired Promethean, entering the education technology sector - 2023: Spun off Promethean into a separate publicly listed company, Mand AI [2][3] Core Business Segments Gaming - **Flagship IP**: "Magic Domain" characterized by: - 100% original design, enhancing legal and financial stability - Fully self-published, improving profit margins - Long-term operation with high user engagement [4] - **Revenue Growth**: - "Conquer" has over 60% of revenue from overseas, with plans for deeper localization [7] - "Soul of Heroes" saw a 10% year-over-year increase in APA due to collaboration with domestic IP [9] - **AI Integration**: - AI production centers established to enhance content adaptation and efficiency - Introduction of smart NPCs and AI-generated content to improve user experience [6][14] Education Technology - **Market Position**: - Promethean holds a 70% market share in the U.S. K12 interactive display market and 30% in Europe [11] - **User Base**: Nearly 200 million users on the AI+ education platform [2][8] - **Future Plans**: - Interconnect provincial platforms with national platforms for increased service opportunities - Collaborations with international markets, including a recent project in Thailand [8] Financial Performance - **R&D Expenses**: Decreased by 27% year-over-year in the first half of 2025 [1][17] - **Shareholder Returns**: Announced over HKD 600 million in returns through dividends and buybacks in the next 12 months [2][13] - **Profitability Outlook**: - EBITDA expected to break even by Q4 2025, with growth anticipated from 2026 to 2028 [23] Strategic Initiatives - **AI Transformation**: - Focus on developing impactful AI-native games and educational content [5][16] - **Investment Strategy**: - Recent investments in companies like Slow Point AI and Chuangqi Si to enhance AI capabilities and SaaS offerings [12] - **OpenQuest Academy Collaboration**: - Aims to leverage AI infrastructure for global educational content creation [10] Market Trends and Challenges - **Gaming Market**: - Adjustments in "Magic Domain" game mechanics led to a double-digit increase in monthly active users [26] - Anticipated revenue growth from new projects and regional expansions [27] - **Education Market**: - Post-pandemic demand fluctuations have led to a slowdown, but a recovery is expected as hardware needs renewal [21][22] Additional Insights - **Team Integration**: - AI production centers are enhancing team collaboration and efficiency across different projects [6][7] - **SaaS Growth**: - New product launches are expected to increase SaaS subscription rates, contributing to overall profit margins [24] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial performance, and market positioning within the gaming and education technology sectors.

Core Viewpoint - The company, NetDragon, has announced a shareholder return plan of over HKD 600 million, instilling significant confidence in the market while continuing to create value for shareholders through its AI-driven strategies in both education and gaming sectors [1][6]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of HKD 2.38 billion, with a gross profit of HKD 1.66 billion and a gross margin of 69.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9 percentage points [1]. - Operating expenses decreased by 15.6% year-on-year to HKD 1.35 billion, showcasing the effectiveness of AI in cost optimization and efficiency enhancement [1]. AI Strategy - The company is pursuing a dual strategy of "AI + Education" and "AI + Gaming," leveraging technological innovation and ecosystem collaboration to seize new growth opportunities globally [1][4]. - AI has significantly improved operational efficiency, with an estimated 15% enhancement in overall effectiveness within the gaming sector [1][2]. Gaming Sector Developments - The company has established AI production centers to enhance collaboration and content generation across different game teams, leading to the efficient launch of multilingual versions of flagship IPs like "Magic Domain" [2]. - Notable game products such as "Conquest" and "Spirit of the Heroes" have seen revenue growth of 2.1% and 18% year-on-year, respectively, while the core mobile game "Magic Domain" has experienced a MAU growth of over 30% [2]. Education Sector Initiatives - The company has made early investments in AI for education since 2017, developing AI-driven educational content and tools, and is now focusing on expanding its market share both domestically and internationally [3]. - Collaborations with educational institutions in Thailand and Cameroon aim to enhance digital education and improve educational equity and quality [3]. Industry Positioning - The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on the global AI technology landscape by integrating cutting-edge technologies and expanding its AI ecosystem [4][5]. - Future investments will focus on AI, XR, robotics, and blockchain technologies, reinforcing synergies with the company's core business [5]. Shareholder Returns - The company has a history of shareholder return plans, including a recent announcement of a plan to return up to HKD 600 million, which includes dividends and buybacks, reflecting a commitment to shareholder value [6][7]. - The proposed dividend of HKD 0.50 per share represents a year-on-year increase of 25%, with an annualized dividend yield exceeding 9%, making it one of the most attractive in the tech sector [6][7].

Core Insights - The "AI + Education" sector is experiencing a significant value reassessment driven by technological advancements and policy support, particularly with the introduction of DeepSeek, which reduces the cost of AI model development and deployment [1] - The Ministry of Education and other departments have issued guidelines to accelerate digital education, focusing on integration, intelligence, and internationalization, which is expected to stimulate the application of AI in education [1] Company Developments - NetDragon has been a pioneer in the "AI + Education" field, having invested in AI research since 2017 and successfully commercializing various AI educational products [1][2] - The company aims to establish the largest global education content production center in Hong Kong, enhancing the efficiency and quality of interactive educational games [2] - NetDragon's AI education content unit, "Photosynthesis," was showcased at the Global Smart Education Conference in September 2024, highlighting the company's innovative capabilities [2] Strategic Partnerships - NetDragon is collaborating with Thailand's Ministry of Higher Education to launch an online AI education platform, providing vocational training in sectors like new energy vehicles, aligning with national policies for developing skilled talent in emerging markets [2] - The company has formed a strategic partnership with Hong Kong Polytechnic University to integrate advanced AI and vocational training content into its education platforms [2] Technological Integration - NetDragon's subsidiary, Mynd.ai, has been independently listed and is set to launch new SaaS products that will incorporate AI technology, enhancing the educational experience for users [3] - The company is a technical service partner for the National Smart Education Public Service Platform, which has over 163 million registered users, indicating its significant role in the national education framework [3][4] Market Positioning - NetDragon has established a strong foundation in educational technology, with over a decade of experience in content, software, and hardware, positioning itself to benefit from the dual support of technological advancements and favorable policies [4] - The company has been recognized for its collaboration with educational institutions to develop modern industry colleges, showcasing its commitment to integrating education with industry needs [5] Financial Performance - NetDragon's gaming sector is also benefiting from AI applications, with popular games like "Heroes of the Storm" integrating AI features to enhance player experience [6] - The company has a history of consistent dividend payments, with a proposed annual dividend of 0.9 HKD per share for 2024, reflecting a dividend yield of over 9% [6]

Core Viewpoint - NetDragon reported a 14.8% year-on-year decline in revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, despite a significant growth of 356% in its education services business [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for NetDragon in 2024 was RMB 6 billion, down from the previous year [3]. - Gross profit decreased by 10.4% to RMB 3.9 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 43.5% to RMB 311 million [3]. - The company recorded a net profit of RMB 114 million, a decline of 74.4% year-on-year [3]. - The gaming and application services segment generated RMB 3.9 billion, accounting for 65.1% of total revenue, down 6.0% [3]. - Revenue from the overseas education subsidiary Mynd.ai was RMB 2.1 billion, representing 34.8% of total revenue, a decrease of 27.6% [3]. Group 2: Business Segments - Mynd.ai's revenue decline was attributed to challenges in the global education market, while the company is transitioning from a hardware supplier to a leader in the "Classroom as a Service" (CaaS) sector [5]. - Mynd.ai's education device sales revenue was RMB 1.77 billion, down 37.5%, while education services revenue surged to RMB 333 million, up 356% [4][5]. - Mynd.ai reported a loss of RMB 279 million, but this represented an 11.4% reduction in losses compared to the previous year [4]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The implementation of the "AI+ strategy" improved operational efficiency, reducing employee costs by nearly RMB 100 million [4]. - The company optimized its capital structure, leading to a 19.1% increase in pre-tax profit to RMB 756 million [4]. - Net cash increased by 13.3% to RMB 2.1 billion, with stable operating cash flow of RMB 1.1 billion [4]. Group 4: Workforce and Corporate Actions - The number of employees increased from 5,984 at the beginning of the year to 6,123 mid-year, but decreased to 4,593 by year-end [5]. - The company completed the sale of non-strategic early education business in October 2024, which helped repay some debt and optimize cost structure [5]. - NetDragon announced a final dividend of HKD 0.50 per share, totaling approximately RMB 246 million [6].