正在外界对其传言纷纷时，8月25日，《黑色信标》官方发布了最新公告，公告表示，延迟1.2版本结束 时间至10月14日，迟到了整整五十天。 近期有消息显示，《黑色信标》明昼科技大楼搬迁。 之后很长一段时间，除了复刻活动之外没有任何新内容更新。 公告一出，社区更是引发跑路猜测。从国服上线4月28日至今短短四个月左右时间，如果真的如猜测所 言实在令人唏嘘。 | 评论 161 相关 只看作者 三 热门 | | --- | | 无名 | | 实在不行咱们出个陪伴服吧 | | 你要跑路的话吱个声,我有个心理准备 | | 98楼 · 昨天 19:36 回复 | | 白猫 | | 这不就是死了 就把性价比青和最强男角色拉出来复 | | 刻再圈最后一波吗 | | 110楼 · 昨天 21:07 回复 | | 家居哥 OPC MW | | 准备跑路的征兆。 | | 1,公司搬迁,人员缩减 | | 2,新版本不能稳定更新,延后。 | | 3,复刻跳过相对弱势的,先上强势人气高的角色。 | | 你就氪吧,欢迎补充。 | | 86 楼 · 昨天 18:21 回复 | | 灯列 22024年度报告 | | 永久月卡69 | | 昨天 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - NetEase's Q2 2025 financial report shows a net revenue of 27.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, but the results fell short of market expectations, leading to a stock price drop of over 10% [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - NetEase's Q2 net revenue reached 27.9 billion yuan, with game business revenue accounting for 22.8 billion yuan [2]. - The company achieved a net profit of 8.6 billion yuan in Q2, but faces increasing pressure due to declining revenues from non-gaming products [5]. Group 2: Product Performance and Market Challenges - The company has seen fluctuations in revenue from successful new products launched in the past two years, with no major new releases this year contributing to a challenging situation [2]. - Management is focusing on the performance of older products and their expansion in overseas markets, while newer products launched in the first half of the year were not mentioned in the earnings call [2]. - The gaming market in China is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Tencent emphasizing the importance of content-driven games, adding pressure on NetEase [5]. Group 3: Development and Investment Issues - NetEase's high investment in game development has not yielded corresponding returns in the short term, with some high-cost projects, such as "Wanmin Changge: Three Kingdoms," being halted [3]. - The company is facing challenges with ongoing disputes over alleged plagiarism between its games, which could further impact its reputation and performance [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company's 2Q25 performance met expectations but slightly fell short of market forecasts, with revenue growth of 9% year-on-year to 27.9 billion yuan and Non-GAAP net profit increasing by 22% to 9.5 billion yuan [1][2] Revenue and Growth - 2Q25 revenue reached 27.9 billion yuan, aligning with the company's expectations (27.6 billion yuan) but below Bloomberg's consensus (28.4 billion yuan) [1] - Online gaming revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, driven by titles such as "Identity V," "Yanyun," and "Marvel Showdown," along with some licensed games [1] - The flagship product "Fantasy Westward Journey" mobile game achieved a new quarterly revenue high in 2Q25 [1] Cost and Profitability - Gross margin for 2Q25 was 65%, showing slight improvements from 1Q25 (64%) and 2Q24 (63%), primarily due to increased margins in gaming and VAS businesses [2] - Sales expense ratio in 2Q25 recovered to 13%, up from 9% in 1Q25, indicating a faster recovery than market expectations [2] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch key new mobile games, including "Destiny: Stars" on August 28, with a strong pipeline of diverse products for the coming years [2] - The flagship products continue to perform well, with "Identity V" and "Fantasy Westward Journey" maintaining strong positions in the iOS sales charts [2] Valuation and Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, with current stock prices reflecting a valuation of 16x for Hong Kong and 15x for US stocks for 25/26 years Non-GAAP EPS [3] - The target price is set at 263 HKD and 169 USD, indicating an upside potential of 27% for Hong Kong stocks and 25% for US stocks [3]

Financial Performance - Net revenue for the second quarter of 2025 was 27.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.6 billion yuan, down from 10.3 billion yuan in the previous quarter and up from 6.8 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.5 billion yuan, compared to 11.2 billion yuan in the previous quarter and 7.8 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] Game Performance and Strategy - The game "Yan Yun Shi Liu Sheng" has shown stable performance, exceeding pre-launch expectations in terms of active users and commercialization [2] - "Seven Days World" experienced a revenue rebound due to a successful 2.0 version update and the introduction of a new PVP mode, ranking fourth on the Steam global sales chart [3] - The user and revenue distribution between China and overseas markets for "Seven Days World" is 1:1 and 1:1.5, respectively [3] Blizzard Games and Market Potential - Blizzard games have performed well, with data surpassing levels from before the last shutdown, indicating strong potential for attracting both new and returning players in China [4] - The company aims to create content that aligns with Chinese players' preferences to tap into the significant potential of Blizzard games [4] Shooting Game Market - The shooting game segment is highly competitive, with high user expectations for art quality and innovative gameplay [4] - The company plans to continue investing in shooting games to establish leading products in this space [4] Long-term Game Development - "Marvel Showdown" has seen revenue and daily active users stabilize after the launch of its third season, indicating effective new strategies [5] - "Forgotten Sea" is viewed as a potential top game, with a focus on its commercial model and target market [5] Evergreen Games Recovery - "Dream Journey" has shown recovery in performance, with a peak of 2.93 million concurrent users recorded [6] - "Egg Party" is expected to become a popular family game through continued investment in high-quality content and marketing [7] AI Integration and Overseas Expansion - The company is actively investing in AI to enhance game development and operations, with plans for AI-driven games in the near future [8] - The overseas market is seen as attractive, with successful titles like "Marvel Showdown" and "Seven Days World" achieving good results [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese "ACG (Anime, Comic, Game)" gaming sector is experiencing a resurgence after a period of stagnation, with several major titles receiving approval or launching, marking a new industry peak similar to previous waves in 2015 and 2020 [1][2][5] Industry Trends - The current wave of ACG games is characterized by domestic developers no longer blindly following trends but instead focusing on developing their own intellectual properties (IPs) and integrating ACG elements with familiar game types, exploring niche markets [1][11] - The market is seeing a significant influx of new and established players, leading to a competitive environment that may result in a reshuffling of market positions [4][11] Game Launches and Performance - Notable game launches include "Victory Goddess: NIKKE," which achieved $1 billion in global revenue by January 2025, and "Pretty Derby," which returned after a 622-day hiatus, generating approximately $203 million in its first 12 days [2][3] - Other successful titles include "杖剑传说," which generated over 200 million yuan in its first month, and "最终幻想14：水晶世界," which began testing in June 2025 [3][4] Market Dynamics - The ACG gaming sector has experienced three major peaks over the past decade, with the current trend being driven by a more mature understanding of the market and player preferences [5][6] - Previous failures in the sector were often due to a lack of depth in storytelling and gameplay, leading to a "winner-takes-all" scenario where only a few titles succeeded [6][10] Cultural Shifts - The rise of "Guochao" (national trend) has allowed domestic developers to resonate more with local audiences, reducing cultural barriers and enhancing emotional connections with players [12][13] - The development of game-related merchandise is gaining traction, reflecting a shift in focus towards creating a broader ecosystem around ACG titles [12][13] Future Outlook - The current trend indicates a diversification of gameplay styles, with developers exploring various genres such as ARPG, shooting, and open-world games, which may lead to new market opportunities [11][12] - There is speculation about the potential for a "GTA-style" ACG game to emerge, with titles like "异环" and "无限大" being closely watched for their market impact [14][15][16]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The media and internet sector is benefiting from new consumption trends, content recovery, and growth in AI applications, with significant products in the gaming sector such as Gigabit's "Nine Woods in the Wild" and Kaiying Network's "Nobunaga" being noteworthy [1][5] - The film and television sector shows signs of recovery, with opportunities arising from Guomai Culture's animated film "Three Kingdoms Starry Sky" and derivative licensing, as well as the short drama market expected to reach a scale of 50.5 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing box office revenues [1][6][12] Key Insights and Arguments - The gaming sector is expected to perform well in the first half of 2025, with new products from companies like Giant Network, Perfect World, and Gigabit [3] - The short drama market is rapidly growing, with a projected scale of 63 billion yuan in 2025 and a compound growth rate of approximately 19% [12] - AI applications are increasingly important in the media and internet industry, with major companies like Alibaba and ByteDance actively investing in AI technologies to enhance user experience and drive overall industry valuation [8] Notable Developments - The IP toy sector remains active, with companies like Pop Mart expected to perform well in the second half of the year, driven by emotional consumption trends [1][7] - The open-world gaming market has significant potential, with titles like Perfect World's "Yihuan," NetEase's "Infinite," and Shiyue Network's "Wangyue" anticipated to launch in 2025 or 2026 [9] - The film industry is projected to achieve a box office revenue of approximately 50 billion yuan in 2025, with notable films such as "Mission: Impossible 8" and "Jurassic World Rebirth" expected to perform well [10][11] Additional Insights - The education sector is focusing on AI integration, with companies like New Oriental and Thinking乐 showing strong profit growth potential [4][17] - The new energy vehicle sector continues to grow, with a year-on-year increase in production and sales of 48.3% and 46.2% respectively, and a penetration rate of 42.7% [4][15] - The e-commerce sector is experiencing rapid growth in instant retail, with major players like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com heavily investing in this area [13][14] Investment Opportunities - Companies like Dou Shen Education and Sheng Tong are recommended for investment due to their AI-focused educational products, which are expected to lead the market [18][19] - The automotive sector, particularly Li Auto's I8 and I6 models, is expected to outperform due to their design advantages and strong market positioning [16]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses **Perfect World** and the **gaming industry** in general, with a focus on upcoming game releases and market trends [2][6][10]. Key Points and Arguments - **IP Derivative Sales**: The sales of the **Nezha IP** derivatives have reached several hundred billion GMV, with a target approaching 1,000 billion, indicating significant market potential for IP derivatives that could impact stock valuations of related companies [2][4]. - **New Consumption in Hong Kong**: In the new consumption sector in Hong Kong, **Pop Mart** and **Brook** have shown outstanding performance, with Pop Mart's expected PE exceeding 40 times, reflecting high growth expectations from the market [2][5]. - **Game Product Performance**: **Giant Network's** supernatural action group has seen a notable increase in revenue, while **ST Huatong's King's Raid** continues to show growth, indicating strong operational performance of gaming products that may lead to significant profits [2][5]. - **2025 Gaming Landscape**: The year 2025 is anticipated to be a major year for game products, with significant releases from Perfect World, including **"Yihuan"**, and other major titles expected to drive industry growth [2][6]. - **"Yihuan" Highlights**: The new game **"Yihuan"** utilizes the Unreal Engine 5, featuring a differentiated combat system and a light-hearted, suspenseful storyline, with expectations to surpass the previous title **"Huan Tower"** [2][7]. - **Open World Mobile Games**: The future of open-world mobile games looks promising, with players increasingly willing to pay for high-quality games, suggesting a growing market segment [2][8][9]. - **Player Payment Habits**: Players have developed a willingness to pay for quality games, creating a favorable ecosystem for the growth of open-world games, with three significant titles expected to launch in the next two years [2][9]. Additional Important Information - **Organizational Changes**: Perfect World has undergone structural adjustments to become more market-oriented, reducing its workforce from over 5,700 to approximately 3,900 and selling non-core assets [3][10]. - **Revenue Projections for "Yihuan"**: The first-year revenue for "Yihuan" is projected to be between 5 billion to 9.1 billion RMB, with a corresponding profit elasticity of 900 million to 2.25 billion RMB [3][11]. - **Future Revenue and Profit Expectations**: Revenue forecasts for Perfect World from 2025 to 2027 are 6.7 billion, 10.8 billion, and 9.9 billion RMB, with net profits of 630 million, 1.71 billion, and 1.82 billion RMB respectively [3][12]. - **Risk Factors**: Investors should be aware of risks such as potential delays or quality issues with new game releases, changes in international trade policies affecting overseas business, and the possibility of data discrepancies due to reliance on assumptions and third-party data [3][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent game announcements by NetEase, highlighting the company's strategy to diversify its game offerings and seek opportunities in the global market, particularly through platforms like Steam, while navigating the competitive landscape dominated by Tencent [2][7]. Group 1: Game Announcements and Strategy - On May 20, NetEase announced over 40 new games, including 9 that are not yet officially launched in China, following a strong Q1 performance that exceeded industry expectations, resulting in a 14% increase in its US stock [2]. - The release strategy appears to focus on a mix of self-developed and IP collaboration projects, with a significant emphasis on global distribution through Steam, indicating a shift towards international markets [2][7]. - The game "SUPERVIVE," a pure import, has received over 17,000 positive reviews since its release, showcasing the potential for successful game adaptations [3]. Group 2: Market Opportunities and Challenges - The article notes a potential market opportunity for NetEase with the game "无主星渊," which could attract players looking for alternatives to Tencent's offerings in the "search and destroy" genre, especially given the current fatigue with existing popular games [5]. - There is a suggestion that the IP "命运：群星" may be overvalued in terms of its commercial potential, as its appeal in China is limited compared to its performance on platforms like PS and Steam [6]. - The article emphasizes that despite the industry's innovation fatigue, NetEase's approach of embracing global markets through Steam could allow it to connect with a more discerning player base, thus avoiding direct competition with Tencent [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the internet media industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][11]. Core Insights - Tencent and NetEase have exceeded expectations in Q1 2025, with AI applications enhancing operational efficiency in gaming and advertising. Despite concerns over a decrease in capital expenditure, the commitment to AI-driven growth remains strong [3]. - The gaming sector continues to thrive with established titles like Tencent's "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" driving revenue growth, while NetEase's new mobile game "Yanyun" contributes to a 12.1% year-on-year increase in net income from gaming and related services [3]. - The report highlights the strong gross margin of NetEase Cloud Music at 36.7% in Q1 2025, reflecting a robust growth trajectory in paid subscriptions and user engagement among younger demographics [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of shareholder returns, with differentiated competition in gaming products supporting stock buybacks and dividends [3]. - The report identifies potential short-term profit margin pressures from competition in instant retail affecting e-commerce and local lifestyle platforms [3]. Summary by Sections Gaming Sector - Tencent's Q1 2025 capital expenditure is 15% of revenue, while Alibaba's AI initiatives are accelerating cloud revenue. The gaming sector is expected to benefit from AI innovations, enhancing user engagement and retention [3]. - A-share gaming companies are projected to see growth driven by new product cycles and AI innovations, with current valuations around 15x [3]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends investments in AI cloud computing and cost-effective AI applications, highlighting companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, and Kingsoft Cloud [3]. - It also suggests focusing on consumer platforms targeting younger audiences, including Pop Mart and Meitu, as well as companies in the film industry like Alibaba Pictures [3]. - The report notes improved competitive dynamics for companies like Focus Media and suggests high dividend-paying publishing companies as attractive investments [3]. Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating projected revenues and net profits for 2025 and 2026, with Tencent's market cap at 43,014 million RMB and a PE ratio of 17 for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][12] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 28.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.78%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.3 billion yuan, up 34.94% year-on-year and 17.51% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The revenue from games and related value-added services was 24 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.1% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 13.2%, primarily driven by the revenue increase from "Identity V" and contributions from new games such as "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" and "Marvel Duel" [5] - The company maintains its earnings forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 34.2 billion, 39 billion, and 42.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 10.8, 12.3, and 13.4 yuan, indicating a positive outlook for the new product cycle led by "Infinity" [5][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2025, the company is projected to have a revenue of 120.974 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.9%. The net profit is expected to be 34.23 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [8] - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at 62.5% for 2025, with a net margin of 28.3% [8] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025 is estimated at 16.2 times, decreasing to 13.1 times by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [8]