证券研究报告 | 2026年03月02日 2026年03月03日 传媒互联网周报 优于大市 DeepSeek V4 将发布，持续看好 AI 应用 行业下跌 4.44%，跑输沪深 300，跑输创业板指。本周（2.24-2.27）传媒行 业下跌 4.44%，跑输沪深 300（1.08%），跑输创业板指（1.05%）。其中涨 幅靠前的分别为中信出版、友车科技、ST 华闻、中体产业等，跌幅靠前的分 别为博纳影业、光线传媒、横店影视、幸福蓝海等。横向比较来看，本周传 媒板块在所有板块中涨跌幅排名第 29 位。 谷歌 Nano Banana2 上线，DeepSeek V4 将在下周发布。1）Nano Banana 2 图像生成模型正式上线，带来 2K 默认分辨率和文字渲染能力的大幅提升；2） 2 月 28 日报道，深度求索（DeepSeek）将于下周发布全新多模态大语言模型 V4，是继 2025 年 1 月 R1 推理模型发布后的首次重大更新；3）OpenAI 与亚 马逊达成多年期深度合作，根据协议，亚马逊将向 OpenAI 投资 500 亿美元， 首期投入 150 亿美元，未来还将根据特定条件追加 350 亿美元。亚马 ...

传媒互联网周报 优于大市 DeepSeek V4 将发布，持续看好 AI 应用 行业下跌 4.44%，跑输沪深 300，跑输创业板指。本周（2.24-2.27）传媒行 业下跌 4.44%，跑输沪深 300（1.08%），跑输创业板指（1.05%）。其中涨 幅靠前的分别为中信出版、友车科技、ST 华闻、中体产业等，跌幅靠前的分 别为博纳影业、光线传媒、横店影视、幸福蓝海等。横向比较来看，本周传 媒板块在所有板块中涨跌幅排名第 29 位。 谷歌 Nano Banana2 上线，DeepSeek V4 将在下周发布。1）Nano Banana 2 图像生成模型正式上线，带来 2K 默认分辨率和文字渲染能力的大幅提升；2） 2 月 28 日报道，深度求索（DeepSeek）将于下周发布全新多模态大语言模型 V4，是继 2025 年 1 月 R1 推理模型发布后的首次重大更新；3）OpenAI 与亚 马逊达成多年期深度合作，根据协议，亚马逊将向 OpenAI 投资 500 亿美元， 首期投入 150 亿美元，未来还将根据特定条件追加 350 亿美元。亚马逊将在 云计算、数据存储方面为 OpenAI 提供坚实的技术支持， ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The overall performance of the industry is below expectations, primarily due to the diversion of viewing time caused by travel and an imbalance in content structure. The total box office for the 2026 Spring Festival was 5.752 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.5%, with total audience attendance dropping by 35.8% to 120 million [4][5] - The 2026 Spring Festival box office and audience numbers decreased by 28.24% and 26.38% respectively compared to 2024, indicating a significant weakness in performance. Contributing factors include an extended holiday leading to increased travel demand and a content structure that did not effectively cover family and female audiences [5] - There is a strong reserve of quality content both domestically and internationally, with expectations for box office recovery throughout the year. High-profile international films and domestic productions with strong visual appeal and broad audience potential are set to be released in 2026, which may stimulate viewing demand [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is 926.46, with a 52-week high of 1021.75 and a low of 591.71 [2] Investment Highlights - Companies to focus on include Light Media, China Film, Shanghai Film, Beijing Culture, and Huace Film, as well as cinema leaders like Happy Blue Ocean, Wanda Film, and ticketing service companies such as Maoyan Entertainment and Damai Entertainment [7]

传媒 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 传媒 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《节后继续聚焦 AI 入口商业化、重磅 新游及长青游戏 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.2.23 《《异环》三测及字节 AI 视频模型惊 艳，继续布局游戏/多模态 AI 应用— 行业周报》-2026.2.8 《Moltbook、元宝、Genie3 出圈，继 续布局 AI 社交/游戏/营销—行业点评 报告》-2026.2.2 把握更确定方向，聚焦头部新游及核心 AI 应用 ——行业周报 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 《异环》定档 4.23 公测，或为潜在"爆款"，继续布局游戏，聚焦头部新游 完美世界旗下二次元超自然都市开放世界游戏《异环》已官宣将于 4 月 23 日开 启国服公测，届时同步上线 PC、安卓、iOS、Mac、鸿蒙、PS5 平台，海外公测 也将随后于 4 月 29 日开启。此前于 2.4-2.18 期间进行 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月27日 电影专题系列——2026 年春节档回顾与展望 中性 2026 年春节档票房 51.66 亿，看好 AI 应用推动的内容供给转型 内容供给不足，2026 年春节档票房 51.66 亿。2026 年中国春节档票房 51.66 亿（不含服务费），在高基数下同比下滑 39.6%，主要是由于内容供给的不 足。拆分量价来看，2026 年春节档平均票价 42.9 元，同比下滑 5.9%，主要 是由于特效片的缺乏；观影人次 1.2 亿，同比下滑 35.8%。 内容端：缺乏头部 IP 和特效大片，《飞驰人生 3》相对领先。1）今年春节 档共有 6 部影片上映，其中《飞驰人生 3》贡献总票房 50.8%、《惊蛰无声》 《镖人：风起大漠》分别贡献档期票房的 15.1%/14.0%，头部效应显著；2） 春节档票房贡献绝对值、集中度均较高，反映出观众对优质影片需求较高。 但整体而言，本次春节档的影片供给略显不足，导致春节档票房表现平淡。 渠道端：万达系维持市占率第一，中小影院持续出清，竞争结构持续改善。 从渠道来看，1）Top1 和 Top2 的万达、中影院线市占率呈提升趋势，万达的 市占率从 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the film industry has been downgraded to "Neutral" due to a lack of quality headliner films and high operational leverage among cinema companies [4][60]. Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival box office reached 5.166 billion (excluding service fees), a year-on-year decline of 39.6%, primarily due to insufficient content supply [1][12]. - The average ticket price for the 2026 Spring Festival was 42.9 yuan, down 5.9% year-on-year, with total audience attendance dropping by 35.8% to 120 million [1][12]. - The top film, "Fast Life 3," contributed 50.8% of the total box office, indicating a significant headliner effect, while the overall supply of films was deemed insufficient [1][24]. Content Supply - The 2026 Spring Festival featured six films, with "Fast Life 3" leading in box office contribution, followed by "Silent Awakening" and "Biao Ren: Wind Rises in the Desert" [1][24]. - The concentration of box office revenue among top films was high, with the top two films accounting for 65.9% of the total box office, highlighting the importance of quality content in attracting audiences [1][25]. Channel Dynamics - Wanda's cinema chain maintained the highest market share, increasing from 13.0% in 2019 to 15.1% in 2026, while smaller cinema chains continued to exit the market, improving competitive structure [2][31]. - The concentration of investment companies in the film industry rose from 18.1% in 2019 to 30.3% in 2026, indicating a trend towards consolidation [2][33]. Future Outlook - Short-term supply is under pressure due to a lack of headliner films, while long-term prospects are bolstered by advancements in AI video technology, which is expected to enhance production quality and meet growing entertainment demand [3][56]. - The AI video model is anticipated to significantly reduce production costs and time, potentially improving the supply of both short and long-form content [3][60]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on IP and platform segments that leverage AI technology for visual transformation of content, as well as companies with strong content production capabilities that can create hit productions [4][60]. - The AI short drama market is seen as a growth opportunity, with recommendations to monitor companies that can efficiently produce high-quality content [4][60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the media industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The media industry has shown significant performance, with the media index rising by 3.5% last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.1% [11]. - The report highlights a K-shaped recovery in the gaming sector, with high-end and cost-effective games performing well, while mid-tier games lag behind [8]. - The competition for AI super applications intensified during the Spring Festival, with major players like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent vying for market share [30]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The media index increased by 3.5%, achieving a trading volume of 715.2 billion yuan, marking the second-highest trading week in 26 years [11]. - Sub-sectors such as film and television, digital media, and publishing led the gains, with notable individual stock performances, including a 61% increase for Zhangyue Technology [14][11]. AI Spring Festival Special - The report discusses the concentrated iteration of AI models during the Spring Festival, with a focus on multi-modal generation and agent capabilities [26]. - Major internet companies are competing for the "AI super entrance," with significant updates from companies like ByteDance and Alibaba [30][35]. - The report notes that the demand for tokens is increasing, leading to accelerated commercialization of AI models [28]. Film Spring Festival Box Office - The overall box office for the Spring Festival reached 5.752 billion yuan, marking a decline compared to previous years, with a notable drop in audience numbers [8]. - The report identifies a strong performance from top films, with "Flying Life 3" leading the box office and "Biao Ren" breaking records for martial arts films [8]. Gaming Spring Festival Special - The gaming sector exhibited a K-shaped recovery, with high-value and luxury games outperforming others [8]. - Tencent maintained a strong position in the market, with several high DAU products dominating the sales charts [8]. - The report suggests that sports events may catalyze the performance of football games, indicating potential growth areas [8]. Internet Sector Insights - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in AI narratives, with a focus on full-stack AI service providers [25]. - It also notes a potential easing of competition in instant retail, following regulatory discussions with major internet platforms [25].

⚫ 春节档供给端持续加码，需求端表现疲软。2026年档期总场次达435.1 万场，创历史新高，供给端持续加码；但观影人次同比大幅回落至 1.2 亿，较 2025 年的 1.9 亿显著下滑，需求端疲软特征凸显；平均票价 降至 47.8 元，为近六年最低，票价让利未能有效提振观影需求；档期 整体上座率仅为 22.2%，远低于近年同期水平，新增场次未有效转化 为票房，市场出现"供过于求"的结构性失衡，整体表现不及预期。 ⚫ 档期马太效应加剧，《飞驰人生 3》断层式领跑。2026 年春节档打破 了自 2018 年以来延续的"多雄争霸"的市场结构，呈现出极致分化 态势，马太效应显著加剧，这一格局的核心背景在于当前电影行业正 处于阶段性片荒周期，新片储备不足，2026 年春节档上映影片整体竞 争力显著弱于往年，头部影片也有所匮乏。从梯队表现看，《飞驰人 生 3》以 29.3 亿元，超 50%的票房贡献度形成断层式领跑，成为档期 内第一梯队；第二梯队的中部影片表现明显偏弱，票房成绩不及往年 同期的中部阵营水准，《惊蛰无声》与《镖人：风起大漠》竞争胶着 但均未突破 10 亿票房，《熊出没·年年有熊》则回归系列平均水平。 从影 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media sector, indicating a strong performance compared to the market, with a 3.5% increase in the media index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.1% [5][11]. Core Insights - The media sector is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in trading volume, reaching 715.2 billion yuan, marking the second-highest trading week in 26 years [5][11]. - The report highlights a K-shaped recovery in the gaming industry, with high-end and cost-effective games performing well, while mid-tier games lag behind [8][11]. - The competition for AI super applications is intensifying among major internet companies, with ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent emerging as key players in the market [6][30]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The media index increased by 3.5%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.1%, with a trading volume of 715.2 billion yuan, the second-highest in 26 years [5][11]. - Sub-sectors such as film and television, digital media, and publishing led the gains, with notable individual stock performances, including a 61% increase for Zhangyue Technology [5][11]. AI Spring Festival Special - The report discusses the concentrated iteration of AI models during the Spring Festival, with a focus on multi-modal generation and agent capabilities [6][26]. - Major internet companies are competing for the "AI super entrance," with significant user engagement and promotional activities during the Spring Festival [30][31]. Film Spring Festival Box Office - The overall box office for the Spring Festival reached 5.752 billion yuan, marking a decline compared to previous years, with a significant drop in audience numbers [8][11]. - The report notes strong performances from top films, with "Flying Life 3" leading the box office and "Biao Ren" breaking records for martial arts films [8][11]. Gaming Spring Festival Special - The gaming sector shows a clear K-shaped recovery, with high-end and cost-effective games thriving, while mid-tier games struggle [8][11]. - Tencent continues to dominate the market with multiple high DAU products, while innovative gameplay and sports events are expected to boost performance in the gaming sector [8][11].

文｜山上_ShanShang 薛星星 编辑｜蒋浇 46 岁的沈腾如今已是中国最吸金的演员。 不需要加喜剧的定语，也不需要男女、年龄之类的划分，因为他主演的电影票房累计已超过 400 亿元，位列中国电影演员第一。排在他后面的吴京，迄今 为止的累计票房约为 356 亿元。 多年前，就有人称沈腾是"长在笑点上的人"，说他只是站在那儿就惹人发笑。现在人们更常用"含腾量"来形容他，指他在一部电影中的出场时间。只 要"含腾量"高，票房就有保障。沈腾自己则一直对外自嘲"胸无大志"，也从不指望和名字一样飞黄腾达——虽然他现在已经完全可以用这个词语来形容自 身。 最大公约数 中国市场从来都不缺少喜剧明星，那些曾经家喻户晓的名字，往往都带着点笑意。从陈佩斯、赵本山、宋丹丹、小沈阳到周星驰、王宝强、黄渤乃至沈 腾、贾玲等等不一而足。 客观来说，沈腾并不是最讨喜的那个。他出名甚晚，大学一毕业就去了开心麻花。又导又演地在小剧场打磨八年，他才终于登上央视春晚舞台，凭借"郝 建"一角为观众熟知。等到开心麻花第一部电影《夏洛特烦恼》大获成功时，他已经 36 岁了。 《夏洛特烦恼》 外形上他也算不上讨喜，没有什么鲜明的特质，也没有突出的语言风 ...