电芯6家： 铁锂排产113.6GWh，环比+9%，同比+49%； 三元排产22.2GWh，环比+1%，同比+12%； 其中龙头为55+18.5=73.5GWh，环比+6%，同比+41% 正极： 三元正极4家排产2.6万吨，环比+2%，同比+15%； 铁锂正极4家排产13.0万吨，环比+0%，同比+19%； 负极4家：排产16.3万吨，环比+6%，同比+50%； 隔膜3家：排产17.2亿平米，环比+4%，同比+31%； 电解液2家：排产10.0万吨，环比+4%，同比+46% 数说新能源服务类型： 往 期推荐 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 加入社群 添加半仙微信，备注"进群"，邀请你加入锂电行业社群，获得行业最新动态、行业干货报告和精准人脉。 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 CATL ：储能市场增长高于动力 本公众号基于分享的目的转载，转载文章的版权归原作者或原公众号所有，如有涉及侵权请及时告知，我们将予以核实并删除。 ...

碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：碳酸锂主力合约9月15日价格小幅回落至71160元/吨，跌 幅约2.4%；基差走弱至1140元/吨，现货市场跌幅大于期货，市场对远期供 需平衡的预期有所松动。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量从35.1万手降至30.9万手，降幅12%，成交量 从59.2万手收缩至41.1万手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：国内碳酸锂产能利用率维持在66.41%的稳定水平，供给端尚未见 明显调整。宁德时代枧下窝锂矿复产推进但11月前影响有限，当前供给主 力仍依赖锂辉石路线，而锂云母路线占比降至15%。 需求端：下游正极材料价格总体持稳，三元材料微涨0.08%至119450元/ 吨，铁锂价格持平；三元电芯价格普遍上涨0.4%-2.5%。但需求增速边际放 缓，9月前两周新能源车零售量同比下降3%，尽管批发量同比增长5%，旺季 备库需求兑现存在不确定性。 库存与仓单：碳酸锂社会库存连续两周下降，从14.0万吨降至13.9万吨， 降幅1.1%，部分反映节前备货启动。 市场小结 计价复产探底回升，碳酸锂或能再接反内卷东风 一、日度市场总结 短期碳酸锂市场或维持低位震荡。供给端在锂辉石路线主导下 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The lithium industry is primarily concentrated in Australia, South America, and China, with Australia being the largest supplier of spodumene, mainly managed by foreign investments, while Chinese companies participate through equity investments [1][2] - African lithium mining, led by Chinese investments, has seen significant progress and cost reductions, becoming a major supply source, which has changed market perceptions regarding its legitimacy and cost-effectiveness [1][4][6] Key Insights and Arguments - African lithium mining costs have been decreasing, moving into the middle range of the cost curve, despite lithium extraction from salt lakes still holding a cost advantage [1][6] - The lithium carbonate price has reached a temporary bottom, with potential for a 50% increase in the future, suggesting a long-term investment perspective is advisable [3][14] - The lithium industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% until 2025, driven by demand from solid-state batteries, robotics, and low-altitude economies [3][12] Regional Supply Dynamics - In South America, Argentina's lithium extraction projects are fragmented, with few companies in production due to high-altitude challenges, while Chile relies on SQM's Salar de Atacama project, which has a capacity of 240,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent but lacks short-term expansion plans [7] - China's lithium supply is heavily reliant on overseas sources, with 70% coming from abroad. Domestic production is primarily from Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Qinghai, facing various challenges such as permit changes and slow expansion [8][9][10] Cost and Production Challenges - Different extraction methods impact costs significantly, with spodumene being the most viable, while lepidolite and clay remain unprofitable under current market conditions [4] - The extraction of lithium from African mines has shown resilience despite geopolitical risks, with ongoing operations in Mali and new projects in Hainan [6] Future Trends and Recommendations - The supply-demand balance is expected to improve over the next three years, even with a potential oversupply in 2026, as many mines are not operating at full capacity [13] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with growth potential and operational flexibility, such as Ganfeng Lithium and Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company [14][23] Additional Considerations - The impact of government policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo on cobalt prices could indirectly affect lithium market dynamics, as cobalt is a critical component in battery production [20][22] - The long-term outlook for lithium prices suggests a potential revisit to lower levels in 2026, but with limited downside risk due to constrained supply [22] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the lithium industry's current state and future outlook.