Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the new energy vehicle market operated smoothly, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 0.945 million vehicles respectively, and exports of 0.302 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 100%. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, both supply and demand decreased, and it is expected that both supply and demand will increase in March. In the short term, the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises is basically completed, and the pre - holiday market may be dull, fluctuating in the range of 130,000 - 150,000. It is recommended to control risks before the festival due to the battery rush - export demand at the end of the quarter [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 143,750 yuan, up 1,250 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 140,250 yuan, up 1,250 yuan [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 2,000 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 3,125 yuan, up 60 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 4,640 yuan, up 65 yuan; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 13,340 yuan, up 90 yuan; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 14,300 yuan, up 100 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 52,015 yuan, up 305 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 200,850 yuan, up 400 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 176,400 yuan, up 400 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 177,900 yuan, up 500 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 8,890 yuan, down 1,970 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 1,740 yuan, down 160 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 2,140 yuan, down 720 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 102,932 tons, down 2,531 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 16,920 tons, down 1,436 tons; the inventory of downstream enterprises (weekly, tons) is 44,492 tons, up 835 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 41,520 tons, down 1,930 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 38,759 tons, up 1,477 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 145,499 yuan, and the profit is - 3,706 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 142,147 yuan, and the profit is - 3,742 yuan [3]

Report Title - "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report: Market Sentiment Dominates, Carbonate Lithium Awaits Stabilization" [1] Analyst Information - Analyst: Zhang Qing [2] - Consulting Account: Z0019679 [2] - Institution: Zhonghui Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] Market View Summary Macroeconomic Overview - In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3 (previous value 50.1), and non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (previous value 50.2), both falling below the boom - bust line, indicating weak domestic and foreign demand and potential acceleration of growth - stabilizing policies; the US manufacturing PMI was 52.6, non - manufacturing PMI was 53.8, higher than previous values and expectations, with ADP employment adding 22,000, lower than expectations and previous values. The Fed paused rate cuts, and the new chairman nomination increased uncertainty in future rate - cut paths, leading to sharp corrections in precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and global equity markets [3] Supply Side - This week, carbonate lithium production declined slightly due to the Spring Festival holiday and maintenance. However, in January, Chile exported 16,950 tons of carbonate lithium to China, a 44.82% month - on - month increase, which may offset the domestic supply reduction in February [3] Demand Side - In January, national passenger car retail sales were 1.794 million, a 12.1% year - on - year and 31.9% month - on - month decline. The share of self - owned brands rose to 61%. National new - energy vehicle wholesale was estimated at 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. Tesla China's wholesale sales were 69,129 [4] Cost and Profit - This week, ore prices dropped significantly. African SC 5% was quoted at $1,650/ton, a $250/ton week - on - week decline; Australian 6% lithium spodumene CIF was $1,843/ton, a $502/ton decline; lithium mica was priced at 5,900 yuan/ton, an 800 yuan/ton decline. The carbonate lithium industry profit was 36,139 yuan/ton, a 3,529 yuan/ton decrease [4] Total Inventory - As of February 5, the total inventory was 105,463 tons, a 2,019 - ton decrease from last week. Upstream smelter inventory was 18,356 tons, a 647 - ton decrease [4] Market Outlook - The basis strengthened compared to last week. The discount range for battery - grade carbonate lithium was 800 - 2,000 yuan/ton, and for industrial - grade and quasi - battery - grade was 1,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton. In actual transactions, the discount range for battery - grade was 500 - 2,000 yuan/ton. Lithium salt producers were less willing to sell spot orders, while traders were active. Downstream material producers had basically completed pre - holiday inventory preparations. The main carbonate lithium contract dropped sharply, erasing all January gains. Weak external precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, along with insufficient market liquidity, led to the continuous decline of carbonate lithium prices in search of support. The fundamentals showed no obvious negative factors, with inventory reduction continuing during the off - season. Downstream buyers were active in price - fixing when prices dropped sharply, with large volumes traded at the limit - down price. Due to the terminal's rush for exports, demand was slightly advanced, and downstream mainstream material producers maintained high operating rates, less affected by the Spring Festival. Upstream smelter production declined from the peak, and lithium salt producers' maintenance and production cuts were gradually evident. In February, the overall inventory reduction trend continued. The significant month - on - month increase in Chile's shipments in January led to concerns about inventory accumulation in the peak season in March. Coupled with high pre - holiday market volatility, funds actively left the market to avoid risks, resulting in a continuous decline in carbonate lithium positions. It is recommended to wait for price stabilization before establishing long positions and to hold no positions during the Spring Festival [5] Lithium - Battery Industry Price List - Various lithium - battery products showed price declines from January 30 to February 6, such as lithium spodumene (6% CIF: from $2,345/ton to $1,843/ton, - 21.41%; African SC 5%: from $1,900/ton to $1,650/ton, - 13.16%), lithium mica (from 6,700 yuan/ton to 5,900 yuan/ton, - 11.94%), battery - grade carbonate lithium (from 157,000 yuan/ton to 135,000 yuan/ton, - 14.01%), etc. Some products like metal lithium and certain grades of artificial and natural negative electrode materials remained unchanged [6] Weekly Market Review - As of February 6, the LC2605 contract closed at 132,920 yuan/ton, a 10.3% decline from last week. The spot price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 135,000 yuan/ton, a 14% decline. The basis changed from discount to premium, and the main contract position was 328,000. The sharp decline of the main contract was mainly due to the deep correction in non - ferrous and precious metal sectors, increasing the risk of market panic selling. Exchange position limits and pre - holiday risk - aversion needs led to a shortage of market liquidity. Despite the off - season inventory reduction in the fundamentals, prices continued to decline without new capital inflows [7] Production Situation of Related Products Carbonate Lithium - As of February 6, carbonate lithium production was 23,685 tons, a 375 - ton week - on - week decrease. The enterprise operating rate was 51.44%, a 0.81% decline. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, some enterprises arranged maintenance or holidays, resulting in a seasonal production decrease. The 16,950 - ton increase in Chile's exports to China in January offset the domestic reduction [9] Lithium Hydroxide - As of February 6, lithium hydroxide production was 6,450 tons, a 90 - ton week - on - week decrease. The enterprise operating rate was 43.28%, a 0.61% decline. Affected by the Spring Festival and enterprise maintenance, the operating rate remained low. Downstream material producers mainly fulfilled long - term contracts, and with sharp price fluctuations, they only made rigid purchases [11] Lithium Iron Phosphate - As of February 6, lithium iron phosphate production was 97,653 tons, a 1,950 - ton week - on - week decrease. The enterprise operating rate was 86.01%, a 1.72% decline. Affected by the decline in power orders and some enterprises' production load reduction and Sichuan's maintenance, production decreased slightly, but mainstream enterprises still maintained high operating rates [13] Ternary Materials - The report mentions that demand for ternary materials was slightly advanced, and production operating rates increased, but specific production data is not detailed [15] Other Cathode Materials - In the traditional off - season of consumer electronics, the production and operating rates of manganese acid lithium and cobalt acid lithium declined, but detailed production change data is not provided in a comprehensive manner [23][28] Inventory Situation Carbonate Lithium Total Inventory - As of February 5, the total carbonate lithium industry inventory was 105,463 tons, a 783 - ton decrease from last week, and the warehouse - receipt inventory was 33,777 tons, a 3,146 - ton increase. The total inventory has been declining for four consecutive weeks. As prices fell, lithium salt producers' off - season inventory reduction accelerated. Terminal demand was advanced due to export rush, and the Spring Festival had limited impact on production. After price drops, traders were active in purchasing, leading to an increase in warehouse receipts [32] Downstream Inventory - For lithium iron phosphate, as of February 6, the total industry inventory was 27,293 tons, a 785 - ton decrease. The finished - product inventory continued to decline. Downstream energy - storage demand provided support, promoting enterprises to actively sell goods. Most enterprises prioritized shipping existing inventory to accelerate inventory reduction, but the risk of inventory accumulation due to the continuous decline in power demand should be noted [35] - For ternary materials, the report only shows the inventory trend chart, and there is no specific description of the inventory change situation. For manganese acid lithium, cobalt acid lithium, and ternary precursors, the same situation exists, with only inventory trend charts provided and no detailed change descriptions [38][40][45] Cost and Profit Situation Cost - Side - As of February 6, the African SC 5% ore was quoted at $1,650/ton, a $250/ton week - on - week decline; the Australian 6% lithium spodumene CIF was $1,843/ton, a $502/ton decline; the lithium mica market price was 5,900 yuan/ton, an 800 yuan/ton decline. Lithium salt producers' inventory replenishment was basically completed, and new purchases were few. The basis of lithium ore remained stable. The Australian ore shipment volume was moderately low, and the raw - material supply was still tight [46] Profit - Side - For carbonate lithium, as of February 6, the production cost was 121,050 yuan/ton, a 5,056 - yuan week - on - week decrease, and the industry profit was 29,550 yuan/ton, a 14,452 - yuan decrease. Lithium ore prices dropped significantly following the market, reducing the cost pressure on enterprises using imported ore, while the profits of enterprises with their own mines and salt lakes were not significantly affected. The lithium mica processing fee increased slightly, and the industry was still in the profit range [48] - For lithium hydroxide, as of February 6, the production cost was 110,259 yuan/ton, a 7,536 - yuan week - on - week decrease, and the industry profit was 37,972 yuan/ton, a 5,072 - yuan decrease. This week, the spot trading of aluminum hydroxide was light, downstream procurement basically ended, and the sharp decline in carbonate lithium prices led to a lack of support for lithium hydroxide prices and a marginal weakening of industry profits [50] - For lithium iron phosphate, as of February 6, the production cost was 50,655 yuan/ton, a 5,495 - yuan week - on - week decrease, and the loss was 2,056 yuan/ton, a 134 - yuan/ton decrease. This week, the sharp drop in raw - material prices dragged down the lithium iron phosphate price, but due to some enterprises' price - holding and reluctant - to - sell behavior, the transaction price remained relatively high, with a smaller price decline than the raw - material side, leading to a slight narrowing of the industry loss [53] - For ternary materials, the report shows the cost and profit trend charts, but there is no specific description of the cost and profit change data. The same situation exists for cobalt acid lithium, manganese acid lithium, and ternary precursors [57][60][62]

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：春节假期叠加宏观扰动 延续震荡整理 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周碳酸锂期货主力合约收至 132920 元/吨，成交量增至 58.67 万手，持仓降至 32.86 万手。资金面主力净空延续，前五名净持仓多空比环 比微降，资金在节前偏向谨慎防御；广期所碳酸锂日库存 33777 手，较上 一日减少 10 手。现货端，SMM 电碳均价 134500 元/吨，电工价差 3500 元/ 吨。从市场成交情况看，上游锂盐厂惜售挺价情绪强烈；下游材料厂采取 逢低采购策略，春节备库基本接近尾声，市场询价和成交情况相对稳定。 随着春节临近，资金避险情绪上涨；同时市场波动率处于历史高位，盘面 易受短期情绪及资金流动影响，注意持仓风险。 基本面来看，供应端上周来看，原料市场普跌，SMM 总周度开工率 47.29%（-2.21%），除锂云母外，其他工艺开工率均下降；SMM 周度总产 量 20744 吨（-825 吨）。需求端上周数据显示， ...

免责声明 碳酸锂产业日报 2026/2/3 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 148,100.00 | +15660.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -141,369.00 | +9954.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 355,770.00 | +8072.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 900.00 | -3520.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 33,084.00 | +843.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 153,500.00 | -2000.00↓ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 150,000.00 | -2000.00↓ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | 5,400.00 | -17660.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 2,020.0 ...

多空分歧供需暂稳，锂价高位波动放大 研究员:陈思嘉 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.16」 碳酸锂市场周报 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 「 期现市场情况」 期价震荡走强 图1、碳酸锂主力合约收盘及持仓量 图2、碳酸锂跨期套利 50000 70000 90000 110000 130000 150000 170000 190000 2025/1/17 2025/3/17 2025/5/17 2025/7/17 2025/9/17 2025/11/17 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 碳酸锂主力合约收盘价及持仓量 800000 持仓量 碳酸锂主连 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 2025-12 ...

热门品种机构观点 一、沪银主力合约：多头情绪浓厚，沪银大幅拉涨！ 沪银上行动力仍然强劲，今日持续走强，主力合约收盘大涨8.12%，报17609元/千克。 新湖期货表示，白银方面，市场投资热情高涨，全球白银ETF持续流入，全球最大的白银ETF——SLV （美国）22日单日流入533吨，仅次于2021年1月底散户逼仓时的情形，是历史上第四大单日流入量。同 时COMEX白银通知交割单量持续增加，目前仍未看到交割压力缓解迹象。我们预计白银在12月底交割 前可能仍有一定上涨空间，但追高风险较大，建议投资者谨慎考虑。中长期来看，央行购金具有持续 性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势不可逆甚至加速，将继续支撑贵金属中枢上行，后续贵金属可 能仍偏强。 广发期货认为，节日效应下资金驱动，COMEX白银临近交割需求减少，国内库存回升或缓和多头情 绪；金融属性受美国货币政策预期利好。国际银价涨3.54% 报71.45美元 / 盎司，突破70美元关口后震荡 上行。高波动率仍有上行动力，但需警惕投机多头止盈风险，多单持有并适时锁仓。 二、铂、钯主力合约：铂钯今日携手涨停！ 贵金属延续强势，铂钯今日携手涨停，铂金录得三连板，主力合约涨幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of increasing kidnapping incidents in Nigeria on the country's mining activities, particularly lithium mining, and the potential implications for the lithium market [1][2]. Group 1: Current Situation in Nigeria - Since November 2025, Nigeria has seen a surge in kidnapping incidents, prompting a nationwide state of emergency and a crackdown on illegal mining [1]. - A meeting on December 1 involved governors and traditional leaders from 19 northern states, proposing a six-month suspension of mining activities, pending presidential approval [1]. - The northern state leaders plan to allocate 228 billion Naira to combat criminal activities in the region [1]. Group 2: Lithium Mining in Nigeria - Nigeria is a significant lithium exporter in Africa, with lithium resources primarily located in Nasarawa, Oke-Ogun, and Kebbi states, mainly consisting of pegmatite deposits [1]. - In the first ten months of 2025, China imported 850,000 tons of lithium ore from Nigeria, with a notable increase in the second half of the year, maintaining over 100,000 tons for four consecutive months [1]. Group 3: Market Implications - Despite Nigeria's large lithium export volume, the overall quality is relatively low, with an estimated output of 80,000 to 90,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2025, ranking behind Australia, Chile, Zimbabwe, and Argentina [2]. - The impact of the proposed six-month mining suspension is expected to primarily affect the shipment pace and increase costs rather than significantly reduce export volumes [2]. - Even in extreme scenarios where lithium production halts for six months, the price ceiling for lithium is anticipated to remain around 100,000 yuan per ton [3]. - The article suggests that the influence of Nigeria's crackdown on illegal mining may be limited, with the overall lithium price trends being more dependent on demand rather than supply disruptions [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price rebounded with a weekly increase of 3.93% and an amplitude of 5.99%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 73,960 yuan/ton [5]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of stable supply and improving demand. The overall industrial inventory is continuously decreasing, and consumption expectations are positive [5]. - It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rebounded in the weekly line, with a price increase of 3.93% and an amplitude of 5.99%. The closing price of the main contract was 73,960 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 200 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 20 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, relevant policies were introduced to expand service consumption. In terms of fundamentals, overseas mines and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices, and domestic producers' purchasing sentiment recovered. The inventory of lithium salt factories and traders continued to decline, and the production willingness of smelters remained positive. Downstream enterprises mostly adopted the strategy of buying on dips, and pre - holiday stocking before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day made the spot market transactions relatively active [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks in trading rhythm [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The futures price fluctuated strongly. As of September 19, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 73,960 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2,800 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price rose. As of September 19, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,050 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 460 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,750 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 876 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 10 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1125, a weekly decrease of 0.14% [19]. - **Lithium Mica**: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 7,215 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 370 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 21.77% month - on - month and 42.67% year - on - year. The export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 14.74% month - on - month and an increase of 37.2% year - on - year. In August 2025, the output was 45,880 tons, an increase of 2.87% month - on - month and 31.09% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a decrease of 5% month - on - month and 32% year - on - year [31]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: The average price was 57,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the output of electrolyte was 192,100 tons, an increase of 5.58% month - on - month and 43.84% year - on - year [34]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) remained flat week - on - week. In August 2025, the output of cathode materials was 240,000 tons, an increase of 12.17% month - on - month and 32.6% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 57%, a change of 6% month - on - month and - 3% year - on - year [37]. - **Ternary Materials**: The prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 types remained stable. In August 2025, the output was 65,860 tons, an increase of 6.36% month - on - month and 17.61% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 55%, a change of 3% month - on - month and - 4% year - on - year [42]. - **Lithium Manganate**: The average price of lithium manganate remained flat week - on - week. In August 2025, the output was 10,330 tons, an increase of 2.08% month - on - month and a decrease of 6.09% year - on - year [47]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: The average price of lithium cobaltate remained flat week - on - week. In August 2025, the output was 14,980 tons, an increase of 16.39% month - on - month and 92.05% year - on - year [50]. - **Application Side** - **New Energy Vehicles**: In August 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 45.53%, a change of 0.54% month - on - month and 8.03% year - on - year. The monthly output was 1,391,000 vehicles, a change of 11.91% month - on - month, and the sales volume was 1,395,000 vehicles, a change of 10.54% month - on - month [52]. - **New Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of August 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million, a year - on - year increase of 87.29% [57]. 3.5 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset was 0.06, indicating a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increasing volatility [60].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain low - level fluctuations. The supply side remains rigid under the dominance of the spodumene route, and the resumption of production expectations suppresses the medium - term bullish sentiment. The demand side is supported by pre - holiday stockpiling and rising cell costs, but the peak in retail penetration restricts the upward space. The inventory depletion rhythm may be the key variable. If the weekly inventory reduction continues until the end of September, it may drive the futures price to test the 74,000 yuan/ton resistance level, but the breakthrough momentum is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Market Data Changes**: On September 15, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract slightly declined to 71,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 2.4%. The basis weakened to 1,140 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased from 351,000 lots to 309,000 lots, a decrease of 12%, and the trading volume shrank from 592,000 lots to 411,000 lots [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained stable at 66.41%. The resumption of production at CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine has limited impact before November. The supply mainly depends on the spodumene route, and the proportion of the lepidolite route has dropped to 15%. The demand growth rate has slowed down marginally. The retail volume of new energy vehicles decreased by 3% year - on - year in the first two weeks of September, although the wholesale volume increased by 5%. The lithium carbonate social inventory decreased from 140,000 tons to 139,000 tons, a decrease of 1.1% [2]. - **Market Conclusion**: The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain low - level fluctuations. The inventory depletion rhythm may be the key variable. If the weekly inventory reduction continues until the end of September, it may drive the futures price to test the 74,000 yuan/ton resistance level, but the breakthrough power is limited [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.14% from September 12 to September 15. The basis decreased by 150.88%. The open interest of the main contract increased by 0.01%, and the trading volume increased by 17.47%. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.28%. The prices of some downstream products such as ternary materials and some types of cells increased [5]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market**: On September 15, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 18 yuan/ton. The market trading weakened. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene has exceeded 60%, while that from lepidolite has dropped to 15%. The market in September shows a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with demand growing faster, and there may be a temporary supply shortage [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From September 1 - 7, the national retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles decreased by 3% year - on - year, and the wholesale volume increased by 5% year - on - year [7]. - **Industry News**: The price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise. Due to the Congo (Kinshasa) policy, there may be a shortage of cobalt intermediate raw materials in China in the future. On September 10, there were reports of the resumption of production at CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine, but the resumption time is uncertain [9][10].

Report Overview - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Key Points 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate futures market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The market's hype about the mining end in Yichun has cooled over time. The focus of the spot market has shifted slightly downward, with the price of electric carbon dropping by 150 to 71,200. The downstream production of cathodes and cells is growing optimistically, and procurement demand has increased, but actual transactions are mainly for essential needs due to the strengthening basis. The market is cautious and waiting for the upstream lithium resource production suspension situation to be clarified, so short-term cautious observation is recommended [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures market rose and then fell. The market hype about the mining end in Yichun has cooled. The spot market focus has shifted slightly downward, with the electric carbon price dropping by 150 to 71,200. The downstream production of cathodes and cells is growing optimistically, and procurement demand has increased, but actual transactions are mainly for essential needs due to the strengthening basis. The market is cautious and waiting for the upstream lithium resource production suspension situation to be clarified, so short-term cautious observation is recommended [12]. 3.2 Industry News - Chang'an Qiyuan announced its new car sales in July 2025, with 28,568 vehicles delivered in July and cumulative sales exceeding 190,000 from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 30%. The cumulative sales of Qiyuan Q07 exceeded 40,000, and Qiyuan A06 will be officially launched in the second half of the year [13]. - Beijing New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. produced 10,745 vehicles in July 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.79%, and sold 10,280 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 6.38%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 78,754 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 162.05%, and the cumulative sales were 77,432 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 98.58% [13]. - On August 1, 2025, Tieling Economic Development Zone signed a contract with Guosheng Energy Co., Ltd., with a total investment of 3 billion yuan and an area of 230 mu. The industrial park will be built in two phases to create a complete industrial chain, including the production and recycling of positive and negative electrode materials for high-performance solid-state batteries, cell manufacturing, and Pack lines. The project will also enter cutting-edge fields such as heterojunction tandem perovskite and new energy high-end equipment R & D and manufacturing [13].