1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price rebounded with a weekly increase of 3.93% and an amplitude of 5.99%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 73,960 yuan/ton [5]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of stable supply and improving demand. The overall industrial inventory is continuously decreasing, and consumption expectations are positive [5]. - It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rebounded in the weekly line, with a price increase of 3.93% and an amplitude of 5.99%. The closing price of the main contract was 73,960 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 200 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 20 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, relevant policies were introduced to expand service consumption. In terms of fundamentals, overseas mines and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices, and domestic producers' purchasing sentiment recovered. The inventory of lithium salt factories and traders continued to decline, and the production willingness of smelters remained positive. Downstream enterprises mostly adopted the strategy of buying on dips, and pre - holiday stocking before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day made the spot market transactions relatively active [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks in trading rhythm [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The futures price fluctuated strongly. As of September 19, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 73,960 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2,800 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price rose. As of September 19, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,050 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 460 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,750 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 876 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 10 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1125, a weekly decrease of 0.14% [19]. - **Lithium Mica**: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 7,215 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 370 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 21.77% month - on - month and 42.67% year - on - year. The export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 14.74% month - on - month and an increase of 37.2% year - on - year. In August 2025, the output was 45,880 tons, an increase of 2.87% month - on - month and 31.09% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a decrease of 5% month - on - month and 32% year - on - year [31]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: The average price was 57,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the output of electrolyte was 192,100 tons, an increase of 5.58% month - on - month and 43.84% year - on - year [34]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) remained flat week - on - week. In August 2025, the output of cathode materials was 240,000 tons, an increase of 12.17% month - on - month and 32.6% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 57%, a change of 6% month - on - month and - 3% year - on - year [37]. - **Ternary Materials**: The prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 types remained stable. In August 2025, the output was 65,860 tons, an increase of 6.36% month - on - month and 17.61% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 55%, a change of 3% month - on - month and - 4% year - on - year [42]. - **Lithium Manganate**: The average price of lithium manganate remained flat week - on - week. In August 2025, the output was 10,330 tons, an increase of 2.08% month - on - month and a decrease of 6.09% year - on - year [47]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: The average price of lithium cobaltate remained flat week - on - week. In August 2025, the output was 14,980 tons, an increase of 16.39% month - on - month and 92.05% year - on - year [50]. - **Application Side** - **New Energy Vehicles**: In August 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 45.53%, a change of 0.54% month - on - month and 8.03% year - on - year. The monthly output was 1,391,000 vehicles, a change of 11.91% month - on - month, and the sales volume was 1,395,000 vehicles, a change of 10.54% month - on - month [52]. - **New Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of August 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million, a year - on - year increase of 87.29% [57]. 3.5 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset was 0.06, indicating a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increasing volatility [60].

碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：碳酸锂主力合约9月15日价格小幅回落至71160元/吨，跌 幅约2.4%；基差走弱至1140元/吨，现货市场跌幅大于期货，市场对远期供 需平衡的预期有所松动。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量从35.1万手降至30.9万手，降幅12%，成交量 从59.2万手收缩至41.1万手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：国内碳酸锂产能利用率维持在66.41%的稳定水平，供给端尚未见 明显调整。宁德时代枧下窝锂矿复产推进但11月前影响有限，当前供给主 力仍依赖锂辉石路线，而锂云母路线占比降至15%。 需求端：下游正极材料价格总体持稳，三元材料微涨0.08%至119450元/ 吨，铁锂价格持平；三元电芯价格普遍上涨0.4%-2.5%。但需求增速边际放 缓，9月前两周新能源车零售量同比下降3%，尽管批发量同比增长5%，旺季 备库需求兑现存在不确定性。 库存与仓单：碳酸锂社会库存连续两周下降，从14.0万吨降至13.9万吨， 降幅1.1%，部分反映节前备货启动。 市场小结 计价复产探底回升，碳酸锂或能再接反内卷东风 一、日度市场总结 短期碳酸锂市场或维持低位震荡。供给端在锂辉石路线主导下 ...

Report Overview - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Key Points 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate futures market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The market's hype about the mining end in Yichun has cooled over time. The focus of the spot market has shifted slightly downward, with the price of electric carbon dropping by 150 to 71,200. The downstream production of cathodes and cells is growing optimistically, and procurement demand has increased, but actual transactions are mainly for essential needs due to the strengthening basis. The market is cautious and waiting for the upstream lithium resource production suspension situation to be clarified, so short-term cautious observation is recommended [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures market rose and then fell. The market hype about the mining end in Yichun has cooled. The spot market focus has shifted slightly downward, with the electric carbon price dropping by 150 to 71,200. The downstream production of cathodes and cells is growing optimistically, and procurement demand has increased, but actual transactions are mainly for essential needs due to the strengthening basis. The market is cautious and waiting for the upstream lithium resource production suspension situation to be clarified, so short-term cautious observation is recommended [12]. 3.2 Industry News - Chang'an Qiyuan announced its new car sales in July 2025, with 28,568 vehicles delivered in July and cumulative sales exceeding 190,000 from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 30%. The cumulative sales of Qiyuan Q07 exceeded 40,000, and Qiyuan A06 will be officially launched in the second half of the year [13]. - Beijing New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. produced 10,745 vehicles in July 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.79%, and sold 10,280 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 6.38%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 78,754 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 162.05%, and the cumulative sales were 77,432 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 98.58% [13]. - On August 1, 2025, Tieling Economic Development Zone signed a contract with Guosheng Energy Co., Ltd., with a total investment of 3 billion yuan and an area of 230 mu. The industrial park will be built in two phases to create a complete industrial chain, including the production and recycling of positive and negative electrode materials for high-performance solid-state batteries, cell manufacturing, and Pack lines. The project will also enter cutting-edge fields such as heterojunction tandem perovskite and new energy high-end equipment R & D and manufacturing [13].

Group 1: Report Summary - The lithium carbonate market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend this week, with the main contract up 15.09% and an amplitude of 17.87%, closing at 80,520 yuan/ton [5]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage where supply expectations are somewhat repaired, but demand is temporarily weak. Consumption expectations are positive, but price increases due to market sentiment need to be treated with caution [5]. - The recommended strategy is to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [5]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - Futures prices fluctuated strongly. As of July 25, 2025, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 80,520 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 10,560 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,120 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2,380 yuan/ton [11]. Spot Market - Spot prices strengthened. As of July 25, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,900 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6,250 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 7,620 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 4,310 yuan/ton [15]. Group 3: Upstream Market Lithium Spodumene - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) increased. As of July 25, 2025, the average price was 740 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week increase of 32 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1547, a week-on-week decrease of 0.35% [19]. Lithium Mica and Phosphorus Lithium Aluminate - The average price of phosphorus lithium aluminate was 7,450 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1,625 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,067 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 286 yuan/ton [24]. Group 4: Industry Supply and Demand Supply Side - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons from May, a decline of 16.31% and a year-on-year decline of 9.63%. The monthly export volume was 429.653 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons from May, an increase of 49.84% and a year-on-year decline of 14.28%. - The monthly output was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from May, an increase of 4.75% and a year-on-year increase of 5%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month-on-month decline of 5% and a year-on-year decline of 32% [29]. Demand Side Intermediate Products - The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 49,500 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3,000 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 161,150 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons from May, an increase of 1.67% and a year-on-year increase of 35.25% [32]. - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 32,650 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 22,000 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 203,300 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from May, a decline of 3.24% and a year-on-year increase of 31.16%. The monthly operating rate was 52% [35]. - In June 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 59,000 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from May, a decline of 9.51% and a year-on-year increase of 13.46%. The monthly operating rate was 51%. The prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 remained stable this week [39]. - The average price of lithium manganate was 29,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 500 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from May, a decline of 2.7% and a year-on-year increase of 61.19% [44]. - The average price of lithium cobaltate was 222,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 12,400 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from May, a decline of 5.34% and a year-on-year increase of 58.97% [47]. Application Products - In June 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, a month-on-month increase of 0.33% and a year-on-year increase of 9.12%. The monthly output was 1,268,000 vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 0.16%; the sales volume was 1,329,000 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 1.68% [49]. - As of June 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.06 million, a year-on-year increase of 75.21% [55]. Group 5: Options Market - It is recommended to construct a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility. The synthetic underlying premium and discount is 0.61, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity [58].