热门品种机构观点 一、沪银主力合约：多头情绪浓厚，沪银大幅拉涨！ 沪银上行动力仍然强劲，今日持续走强，主力合约收盘大涨8.12%，报17609元/千克。 新湖期货表示，白银方面，市场投资热情高涨，全球白银ETF持续流入，全球最大的白银ETF——SLV （美国）22日单日流入533吨，仅次于2021年1月底散户逼仓时的情形，是历史上第四大单日流入量。同 时COMEX白银通知交割单量持续增加，目前仍未看到交割压力缓解迹象。我们预计白银在12月底交割 前可能仍有一定上涨空间，但追高风险较大，建议投资者谨慎考虑。中长期来看，央行购金具有持续 性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势不可逆甚至加速，将继续支撑贵金属中枢上行，后续贵金属可 能仍偏强。 广发期货认为，节日效应下资金驱动，COMEX白银临近交割需求减少，国内库存回升或缓和多头情 绪；金融属性受美国货币政策预期利好。国际银价涨3.54% 报71.45美元 / 盎司，突破70美元关口后震荡 上行。高波动率仍有上行动力，但需警惕投机多头止盈风险，多单持有并适时锁仓。 二、铂、钯主力合约：铂钯今日携手涨停！ 贵金属延续强势，铂钯今日携手涨停，铂金录得三连板，主力合约涨幅 ...

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤锂电 2025年11月以来，尼日利亚国内绑架事件激增，不断升级的袭击事件促使尼日利亚全国进入安全紧急 状态，并 对非法采矿"重拳出击" 。 12月1日，尼日利亚北方19个州的州长和该地区的传统统治者召开联席会议，决定推动在该地区全面 暂停采矿活动六个月（该提案尚未被总统通过）。同时，北方各州领导人还宣布计划调动2280亿奈 拉，用于打击在该地区各地作恶的匪徒。 作为非洲主要锂矿出口国之一，尼日利亚的锂矿资源主要分布在 中部 Nasarawa、南部 Oke-Ogun 和西北部 Kebbi 州等地区，以 伟晶岩型矿床为主，不少中国锂盐企业投资的锂矿项目都位于以上区 域。 2025年1-10月，中国进口尼日利亚锂矿数量达到85万吨， 且下半年有明显放量的迹象（连续4个月保 持在10万吨之上），由此也引发了市场的高度关注，近2天碳酸锂期货盘面明显已受到一定影响。 对此，鑫椤资讯观点如下： 首先： 尼日利亚虽然是非洲第一人口大国，非洲最大经济体，但也是非洲最 "乱"的国家之一，绑架 和族群冲突频发，经济增长乏力带来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price rebounded with a weekly increase of 3.93% and an amplitude of 5.99%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 73,960 yuan/ton [5]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of stable supply and improving demand. The overall industrial inventory is continuously decreasing, and consumption expectations are positive [5]. - It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rebounded in the weekly line, with a price increase of 3.93% and an amplitude of 5.99%. The closing price of the main contract was 73,960 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 200 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 20 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, relevant policies were introduced to expand service consumption. In terms of fundamentals, overseas mines and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices, and domestic producers' purchasing sentiment recovered. The inventory of lithium salt factories and traders continued to decline, and the production willingness of smelters remained positive. Downstream enterprises mostly adopted the strategy of buying on dips, and pre - holiday stocking before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day made the spot market transactions relatively active [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks in trading rhythm [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The futures price fluctuated strongly. As of September 19, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 73,960 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2,800 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price rose. As of September 19, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,050 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 460 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,750 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 876 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 10 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1125, a weekly decrease of 0.14% [19]. - **Lithium Mica**: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 7,215 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 370 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 21.77% month - on - month and 42.67% year - on - year. The export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 14.74% month - on - month and an increase of 37.2% year - on - year. In August 2025, the output was 45,880 tons, an increase of 2.87% month - on - month and 31.09% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a decrease of 5% month - on - month and 32% year - on - year [31]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: The average price was 57,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the output of electrolyte was 192,100 tons, an increase of 5.58% month - on - month and 43.84% year - on - year [34]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) remained flat week - on - week. In August 2025, the output of cathode materials was 240,000 tons, an increase of 12.17% month - on - month and 32.6% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 57%, a change of 6% month - on - month and - 3% year - on - year [37]. - **Ternary Materials**: The prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 types remained stable. In August 2025, the output was 65,860 tons, an increase of 6.36% month - on - month and 17.61% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 55%, a change of 3% month - on - month and - 4% year - on - year [42]. - **Lithium Manganate**: The average price of lithium manganate remained flat week - on - week. In August 2025, the output was 10,330 tons, an increase of 2.08% month - on - month and a decrease of 6.09% year - on - year [47]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: The average price of lithium cobaltate remained flat week - on - week. In August 2025, the output was 14,980 tons, an increase of 16.39% month - on - month and 92.05% year - on - year [50]. - **Application Side** - **New Energy Vehicles**: In August 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 45.53%, a change of 0.54% month - on - month and 8.03% year - on - year. The monthly output was 1,391,000 vehicles, a change of 11.91% month - on - month, and the sales volume was 1,395,000 vehicles, a change of 10.54% month - on - month [52]. - **New Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of August 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million, a year - on - year increase of 87.29% [57]. 3.5 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset was 0.06, indicating a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increasing volatility [60].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain low - level fluctuations. The supply side remains rigid under the dominance of the spodumene route, and the resumption of production expectations suppresses the medium - term bullish sentiment. The demand side is supported by pre - holiday stockpiling and rising cell costs, but the peak in retail penetration restricts the upward space. The inventory depletion rhythm may be the key variable. If the weekly inventory reduction continues until the end of September, it may drive the futures price to test the 74,000 yuan/ton resistance level, but the breakthrough momentum is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Market Data Changes**: On September 15, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract slightly declined to 71,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 2.4%. The basis weakened to 1,140 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased from 351,000 lots to 309,000 lots, a decrease of 12%, and the trading volume shrank from 592,000 lots to 411,000 lots [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained stable at 66.41%. The resumption of production at CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine has limited impact before November. The supply mainly depends on the spodumene route, and the proportion of the lepidolite route has dropped to 15%. The demand growth rate has slowed down marginally. The retail volume of new energy vehicles decreased by 3% year - on - year in the first two weeks of September, although the wholesale volume increased by 5%. The lithium carbonate social inventory decreased from 140,000 tons to 139,000 tons, a decrease of 1.1% [2]. - **Market Conclusion**: The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain low - level fluctuations. The inventory depletion rhythm may be the key variable. If the weekly inventory reduction continues until the end of September, it may drive the futures price to test the 74,000 yuan/ton resistance level, but the breakthrough power is limited [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.14% from September 12 to September 15. The basis decreased by 150.88%. The open interest of the main contract increased by 0.01%, and the trading volume increased by 17.47%. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.28%. The prices of some downstream products such as ternary materials and some types of cells increased [5]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market**: On September 15, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 18 yuan/ton. The market trading weakened. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene has exceeded 60%, while that from lepidolite has dropped to 15%. The market in September shows a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with demand growing faster, and there may be a temporary supply shortage [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From September 1 - 7, the national retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles decreased by 3% year - on - year, and the wholesale volume increased by 5% year - on - year [7]. - **Industry News**: The price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise. Due to the Congo (Kinshasa) policy, there may be a shortage of cobalt intermediate raw materials in China in the future. On September 10, there were reports of the resumption of production at CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine, but the resumption time is uncertain [9][10].

Report Overview - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Key Points 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate futures market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The market's hype about the mining end in Yichun has cooled over time. The focus of the spot market has shifted slightly downward, with the price of electric carbon dropping by 150 to 71,200. The downstream production of cathodes and cells is growing optimistically, and procurement demand has increased, but actual transactions are mainly for essential needs due to the strengthening basis. The market is cautious and waiting for the upstream lithium resource production suspension situation to be clarified, so short-term cautious observation is recommended [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures market rose and then fell. The market hype about the mining end in Yichun has cooled. The spot market focus has shifted slightly downward, with the electric carbon price dropping by 150 to 71,200. The downstream production of cathodes and cells is growing optimistically, and procurement demand has increased, but actual transactions are mainly for essential needs due to the strengthening basis. The market is cautious and waiting for the upstream lithium resource production suspension situation to be clarified, so short-term cautious observation is recommended [12]. 3.2 Industry News - Chang'an Qiyuan announced its new car sales in July 2025, with 28,568 vehicles delivered in July and cumulative sales exceeding 190,000 from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 30%. The cumulative sales of Qiyuan Q07 exceeded 40,000, and Qiyuan A06 will be officially launched in the second half of the year [13]. - Beijing New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. produced 10,745 vehicles in July 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.79%, and sold 10,280 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 6.38%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 78,754 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 162.05%, and the cumulative sales were 77,432 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 98.58% [13]. - On August 1, 2025, Tieling Economic Development Zone signed a contract with Guosheng Energy Co., Ltd., with a total investment of 3 billion yuan and an area of 230 mu. The industrial park will be built in two phases to create a complete industrial chain, including the production and recycling of positive and negative electrode materials for high-performance solid-state batteries, cell manufacturing, and Pack lines. The project will also enter cutting-edge fields such as heterojunction tandem perovskite and new energy high-end equipment R & D and manufacturing [13].

Group 1: Report Summary - The lithium carbonate market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend this week, with the main contract up 15.09% and an amplitude of 17.87%, closing at 80,520 yuan/ton [5]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage where supply expectations are somewhat repaired, but demand is temporarily weak. Consumption expectations are positive, but price increases due to market sentiment need to be treated with caution [5]. - The recommended strategy is to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [5]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - Futures prices fluctuated strongly. As of July 25, 2025, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 80,520 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 10,560 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,120 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2,380 yuan/ton [11]. Spot Market - Spot prices strengthened. As of July 25, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,900 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6,250 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 7,620 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 4,310 yuan/ton [15]. Group 3: Upstream Market Lithium Spodumene - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) increased. As of July 25, 2025, the average price was 740 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week increase of 32 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1547, a week-on-week decrease of 0.35% [19]. Lithium Mica and Phosphorus Lithium Aluminate - The average price of phosphorus lithium aluminate was 7,450 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1,625 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,067 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 286 yuan/ton [24]. Group 4: Industry Supply and Demand Supply Side - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons from May, a decline of 16.31% and a year-on-year decline of 9.63%. The monthly export volume was 429.653 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons from May, an increase of 49.84% and a year-on-year decline of 14.28%. - The monthly output was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from May, an increase of 4.75% and a year-on-year increase of 5%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month-on-month decline of 5% and a year-on-year decline of 32% [29]. Demand Side Intermediate Products - The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 49,500 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3,000 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 161,150 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons from May, an increase of 1.67% and a year-on-year increase of 35.25% [32]. - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 32,650 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 22,000 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 203,300 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from May, a decline of 3.24% and a year-on-year increase of 31.16%. The monthly operating rate was 52% [35]. - In June 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 59,000 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from May, a decline of 9.51% and a year-on-year increase of 13.46%. The monthly operating rate was 51%. The prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 remained stable this week [39]. - The average price of lithium manganate was 29,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 500 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from May, a decline of 2.7% and a year-on-year increase of 61.19% [44]. - The average price of lithium cobaltate was 222,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. In June 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 12,400 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from May, a decline of 5.34% and a year-on-year increase of 58.97% [47]. Application Products - In June 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, a month-on-month increase of 0.33% and a year-on-year increase of 9.12%. The monthly output was 1,268,000 vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 0.16%; the sales volume was 1,329,000 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 1.68% [49]. - As of June 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.06 million, a year-on-year increase of 75.21% [55]. Group 5: Options Market - It is recommended to construct a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility. The synthetic underlying premium and discount is 0.61, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity [58].