| MIL. | 国技期负 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月18日 | | 两烯 | ★☆☆ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | ★☆☆ | 纯菜 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆☆ | РХ | ☆☆☆ | | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | ★☆★ | 烧碱 | ★★★ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | ななな | 玻璃 | な女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 两烯期货主力合约日内大幅下行收跌。现货方面丙 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Olefins: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Report's Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [2][3][5] - Some products are affected by factors such as overseas market conditions, domestic production capacity changes, and seasonal demand [2][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures contracts declined. Propylene spot prices are supported due to restart of downstream plants and low inventory [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures declined. Supply pressure persists, but prices may rebound technically [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Overseas pure benzene rebounded, but lacks sustainability. Domestic pure benzene faces supply pressure and weak demand [3] - Styrene futures declined. Supply - demand is in tight balance, and port inventory is expected to decrease [3] Polyester - PX supports PTA prices, but demand is weakening. PTA processing margin fluctuates with PX [5] - Ethylene glycol supply is increasing, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. A bearish view is maintained [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices are weak due to high inventory and weak demand [6] - Urea prices may be strong before the Indian tender, but there is a risk of decline [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices declined due to weak cost support and high supply [7] - Caustic soda prices are weak due to high supply and low demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices declined due to lower cost. The long - term supply - demand is in surplus [8] - Glass prices declined. Mid - stream inventory is high, and short - term trading is recommended to be cautious [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene, plastics, benzene, styrene, PTA, short - fiber, methanol, urea, glass: ☆☆☆ (white star, short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor market operability, mainly for observation) [1] - Ethylene, propylene: ★★★ (three - star, clearer multi/empty trend, and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Ethylene glycol, PVC, soda ash: ★☆☆ (one - star, biased towards multi/empty, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The main futures contracts of olefins and polyolefins closed down on the day. The spot and futures markets showed different trends. Propylene production enterprises may still have the intention to support prices, while polyethylene and polypropylene face supply increases and weak demand [2]. - The main futures contracts of pure benzene and styrene closed down on the day. Pure benzene has the pressure of high imports and falling demand, and styrene has high - inventory pressure [3]. - The prices of PX and PTA fluctuated and closed up on the day. Ethylene glycol continued to increase positions and decline with supply pressure. Short - fiber may face inventory accumulation in the future, and bottle - chip demand is weakening [5]. - The methanol market is under pressure from high imports and high inventories, and downstream demand is weak. The urea market is in a state of oversupply, with prices oscillating within a range [6]. - PVC is running at a low level due to high supply and weak demand. Caustic soda is expected to run at a low level, and its price may rise if liquid chlorine prices continue to fall [7]. - Soda ash prices are under pressure due to high supply and weakening demand. Glass prices are oscillating strongly, with cost support and potential for inventory reduction [8]. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main futures contracts of olefins closed down. Spot - market propylene production enterprises may support prices. The production of polyethylene and polypropylene is increasing, while demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene oscillated below 5500 yuan/ton. It is under pressure from high imports and falling demand. Styrene is under high - inventory pressure [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated and closed up. Ethylene glycol continued to decline with supply pressure. Short - fiber may face inventory accumulation, and bottle - chip demand is weakening [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices continued to fall due to high imports and high inventories and weak downstream demand. Urea prices oscillated strongly, with agricultural demand providing some support but overall in an oversupply situation [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC is running at a low level due to high supply and weak demand. Caustic soda is expected to run at a low level, and its price may rise if liquid chlorine prices continue to fall [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are under pressure due to high supply and weakening demand. Glass prices are oscillating strongly, with cost support and potential for inventory reduction [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: Not clearly specified, but market shows signs of limited upward momentum [2] - Pure Benzene: Short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with potential for seasonal improvement in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter [3] - PX and PTA:中期加工差有修复驱动，但需等待下游需求恢复 [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to continue the downward trend [5] - Short - fiber: Considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term [5] - Bottle - chip: Long - term pressure from over - capacity limits processing margin repair [5] - Methanol: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [6] - Urea: Short - term market is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] - PVC: Short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Caustic Soda: Futures price is expected to face pressure at high levels in the long - term [7] - Soda Ash: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [8] - Glass: Market returns to real - world trading after the subsiding of sentiment [8] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally in a complex situation with a mix of supply - demand imbalances, cost factors, and policy impacts across different sectors [2][3][5] - Different products have different supply - demand characteristics, and their price trends are affected by factors such as raw material prices, downstream demand, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures closed down with limited market digestion capacity and weak upward momentum [2] - Polyolefin futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. PE had increased supply pressure and limited demand improvement, while PP had inventory transfer and weak demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene had cost support from rising oil prices but faced weak supply - demand. It is recommended to conduct monthly - spread band trading [3] - Styrene futures had strong cost support but weak supply - demand, with high supply and stable demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices declined due to weak domestic commodity sentiment. PX had overseas device shutdowns and PTA had reduced load [5] - Ethylene glycol prices continued to fall with stable demand and increasing domestic supply [5] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed raw materials down. Short - fiber had potential for medium - term improvement, while bottle - chip faced long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell with increased imports and low - level inventory. Attention should be paid to macro - policies [6] - Urea futures hit a new low. The market was in the demand off - season with weak short - term trends [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC continued to weaken with high supply and increasing inventory during the off - season [7] - Caustic soda ran weakly with improved comprehensive profits but high - level supply pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash touched the daily limit down with supply - demand pressure and expected weak short - term fluctuations [8] - Glass also touched the daily limit down. The market returned to real - world trading with weakening sales and inventory accumulation [8]