Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - There is no clear core view presented in the given content. The document mainly provides a table of futures and spot prices, along with related data such as basis rates and price differences for various commodities. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metals - **Copper**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a 1.00% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6556, and the主力 contract price is 95380 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The主力基差率 is -0.38%, with a 0.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 23760, and the主力 contract price is 23795 [3]. - **Zinc**: The主力基差率 is -0.17%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 22920, and the主力 contract price is 22950 [3]. - **Lead**: The主力基差率 is -1.09%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16325, and the主力 contract price is 16485 [3]. - **Tin**: The主力基差率 is 1.52%, with a 2.13% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 357600, and the主力 contract price is 352250 [3]. - **Nickel**: The主力基差率 is 1.85%, with a 0.76% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 137800, and the主力 contract price is 135270 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The主力基差率 is 5.93%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9200, and the主力 contract price is 8530 [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The主力基差率 is -0.64%, with a 0.60% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 157200, and the主力 contract price is 157920 [3]. - **Gold**: The主力基差率 is 0.05%, with a -0.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1014.44, and the主力 contract price is 1011.04 [3]. - **Silver**: The主力基差率 is 0.06%, with a -0.42% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 18121, and the主力 contract price is 18174 [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The主力基差率 is 2.81%, with a 0.42% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3220, and the主力 contract price is 3132 [3]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The主力基差率 is -1.00%, with a -0.88% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3280, and the主力 contract price is 3313 [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The主力基差率 is 4.97%, with a 2.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 846.6, and the主力 contract price is 806.5 [3]. - **Coke**: The主力基差率 is -8%, with a 0.56% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1625, and the主力 contract price is 1776 [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The主力基差率 is 0.52%, with a 0.68% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1247.5, and the主力 contract price is 1241 [3]. - **Steam Coal**: The主力基差率 is -5.7%, with a 0.75% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 755, and the主力 contract price is 801.4 [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The主力基差率 is -7.03%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5660, and the主力 contract price is 6166 [3]. - **Ferromanganese**: The主力基差率 is -5.2%, with a -0.18% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6150, and the主力 contract price is 6492 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The主力基差率 is -0.97%, with a -1.39% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 14350, and the主力 contract price is 14490 [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The主力基差率 is 8.80%, with a -1.30% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3190, and the主力 contract price is 2932 [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The主力基差率 is 9.88%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2570, and the主力 contract price is 2371 [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a -1.22% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8820, and the主力 contract price is 8480 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The主力基差率 is 5.39%, with a -0.90% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10230, and the主力 contract price is 9707 [3]. - **Peanut**: The主力基差率 is 10.00%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8136 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a -1.20% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9510, and the主力 contract price is 9510 [3]. - **Corn**: The主力基差率 is 1.01%, with a 0.09% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2400, and the主力 contract price is 2376 [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The主力基差率 is 4.96%, with a 0.34% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2900, and the主力 contract price is 2763 [3]. - **Apple**: The主力基差率 is not provided, with a 0.80% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8500, and the主力 contract price is 9978 [3]. - **Egg**: The主力基差率 is -6.136%, with a -0.25% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3200, and the主力 contract price is 3410 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The主力基差率 is -3.3%, with a -0.37% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9650, and the主力 contract price is 12595 [3]. - **Cotton**: The主力基差率 is 8.94%, with a -1.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16711, and the主力 contract price is 15340 [3]. Soft Commodities - **Sugar**: The主力基差率 is 0.94%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5480, and the主力 contract price is 5429 [3]. - **Methanol**: The主力基差率 is 0.92%, with a -2.14% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3118, and the主力 contract price is 2883 [3]. - **Ethanol**: The主力基差率 is -1.21%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4975, and the主力 contract price is 5036 [3]. - **PTA**: The主力基差率 is -1.40%, with a -0.44% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6500, and the主力 contract price is 6592 [3]. - **Polypropylene**: The主力基差率 is 3.62%, with a 3.23% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8975 [3]. - **Styrene**: The主力基差率 is -1.04%, with a -3.2% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10000, and the主力 contract price is 10105 [3]. - **Short Fiber**: The主力基差率 is -0.12%, with a -3.10% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8100, and the主力 contract price is 8008 [3]. - **Plastic**: The主力基差率 is -0.40%, with a -3.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8680, and the主力 contract price is 8715 [3]. - **PVC**: The主力基差率 is -1.46%, with a -2.77% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5620, and the主力 contract price is 5703 [3]. - **Rubber**: The主力基差率 is -0.79%, with a -0.02% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16300, and the主力 contract price is 16430 [3]. - **20 -号胶**: The主力基差率 is 1.93%, with a -1.07% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 13827, and the主力 contract price is 13565 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The主力基差率 is -1.61%, with a 0.01% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1224, and the主力 contract price is 1244 [3]. - **Urea**: The主力基差率 is -0.16%, with a 0.05% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1860, and the主力 contract price is 1863 [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The主力基差率 is 2.37%, with a -2.69% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8300, and the主力 contract price is 8108 [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The主力基差率 is 0.26%, with a 0.26% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5238, and the主力 contract price is 5224 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The主力基差率 is -6.11%, with a -1.41% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 675.4, and the主力 contract price is 723.9 [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 9.44%, with a -2.38% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4758, and the主力 contract price is 4348 [3]. - **Asphalt**: The主力基差率 is -2.94%, with a -2.24% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4280, and the主力 contract price is 4410 [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 15.83%, with a -10.34% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5976, and the主力 contract price is 5159 [3]. - **LPG**: The主力基差率 is 9.89%, with a 6.06% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7198, and the主力 contract price is 6550 [3]. Stock Index - **CSI 300**: The主力基差率 is 1.97%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4537.5, and the主力 contract price is 4505.6 [3]. - **SSE 50**: The主力基差率 is 1.04%, with a 0.32% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2859.5, and the主力 contract price is 2848 [3]. - **CSI 500**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a 0.62% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7767.7, and the主力 contract price is 7685.6 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by factors such as the Iran situation, and there are uncertainties in various sectors, with different trends and investment suggestions for each commodity [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw all - round gains in treasury bond futures. The current macro data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum is weak. The yield is at a relatively low level, and there is pressure in the later market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The asset valuation is low, and there is room for repair. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined. The global economic situation is affected by the Middle - East conflict, and inflation expectations are rising. The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper contract declined. The supply shortage logic is still strong, but the macro - environment suppresses prices. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak shock with a bottom [56]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum contract rose, and the alumina contract declined. The alumina supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the electrolytic aluminum price may be weakly volatile with support at the bottom [58]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc contract rose. The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, but the consumption is affected by the real - estate sector. The zinc price may be under pressure [61]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead contract declined. The supply and demand are both weak, and the lead price may be weakly volatile [63]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin contract declined. The supply tightness has eased, and the demand is complex. The tin price has support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [65]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel contract declined. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the consumption is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern [66]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The CFTC net long position increased, but the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market changed. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the price is expected to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber contract rose. The current main contradiction is cost - driven, and the short - term price may maintain a strong shock [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber contract rose. The market is in a game between multiple and short factors, and the short - term is in a wide - range shock [30]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC contract declined. The market is in a game between cost support and high inventory. The price is expected to be strongly volatile, but the upside space is restricted [32]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea contract rose. The current contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is weakly volatile, and the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are repaired, and the price may be in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to operate carefully [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA contract rose. The supply increases, and the downstream reduces production. The short - term is in a multi - empty game. It is recommended to operate carefully [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol contract rose. The supply and demand are affected by the geopolitical situation, and the price needs to be treated carefully [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber contract rose. The supply increases, and the demand weakens. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and device dynamics [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip contract rose. The supply and demand fundamentals change little, and it is recommended to participate carefully [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda - ash contract declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is general, and the price is expected to be in a stalemate [45]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass contract declined. The production line is shrinking, the inventory removal slows down, and the price may fluctuate repeatedly [47]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic - soda contract declined. The supply decreases slightly, the inventory does not decrease significantly, and the price is affected by exports [49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, the paper - pulp contract declined. The inventory accumulates, and the demand is weak, restricting the rebound height [52]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, the soybean - meal and soybean - oil contracts rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, the palm - oil contract rebounded. The export data is strong, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider closing long positions [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil contracts changed. The market is waiting for relevant announcements and paying attention to the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, the domestic cotton contract oscillated. The new - year global cotton is expected to reduce production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The medium - long - term price has support, but the short - term is affected by the quota issuance [72]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, the domestic sugar contract oscillated. The international situation is favorable, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term price has a bottom support [74]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, the apple contract oscillated. With the Qingming Festival approaching, the demand is released, and the market is expected to be stable and strong [76]. - **Pork**: The previous trading day, the pork contract declined. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg contract rose. The supply is improving, and it is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn contract declined, and the corn - starch contract rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch demand recovers slightly [80]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log contract rose. The inventory decreases, the downstream demand improves, and the market is affected by the geopolitical situation [82].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market volatility of various assets is expected to increase due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation. Different investment strategies are recommended for different assets, such as being cautious for bonds, temporarily staying on the sidelines for stocks and precious metals, and considering short - selling opportunities for some commodities [5][9][11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Bonds - **Performance**: The 30 - year and 2 - year Treasury futures rose 0.01% and 0.02% respectively, while the 10 - year and 5 - year contracts were flat. As of the end of February, the total installed power generation capacity was 3.95 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly [5]. - **Outlook**: The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the monetary policy is expected to be loose. The bond yield is at a relatively low level, and there is still some pressure in the future market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures rose 1.61%, 0.81%, 2.17%, and 1.73% respectively. As of the end of February, the total scale of public funds reached 38.61 trillion yuan [7]. - **Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The asset valuation is low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [9][10]. 3. Precious Metals - **Performance**: The gold and silver futures rose 3.49% and 6.01% respectively. The European Central Bank is evaluating the impact of the Iranian war [11]. - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11][12]. 4. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Performance**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and hot - rolled coil were 2980 yuan/ton, 3110 - 3230 yuan/ton, and 3280 - 3300 yuan/ton respectively [13][14]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The real estate industry is in a downward trend, but the market is entering the peak demand season. The supply pressure is reduced, and the inventory pressure is small. The price may rebound, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - buying opportunities [14][15]. 5. Iron Ore - **Performance**: The iron ore futures fell significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were 785 yuan/ton and 670 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The iron ore demand may increase, but the inventory is at a high level. The price may rebound, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - buying opportunities [16][17]. 6. Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: The coking coal and coke futures fell significantly [18]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand for coke is expected to expand. The price may continue to be strong, and investors can pay attention to low - position buying opportunities [18][19]. 7. Ferroalloys - **Performance**: The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell 1.04% and 0.36% respectively. The spot prices also declined [20]. - **Outlook**: The cost is at a low level, and the supply is loose. The overall surplus pressure continues. After the short - term price rises, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [20][21]. 8. Crude Oil - **Performance**: The INE crude oil fluctuated downward. The CFTC data showed that speculators increased their net long positions. The number of oil and gas rigs decreased [22]. - **Outlook**: The increase in net long positions indicates that the market is bullish on the future. However, the possible cease - fire between the US and Iran may lead to oil price fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23][24]. 9. Polyolefins - **Performance**: The PP and LLDPE prices in the market fell, and the market sentiment was cautious [24]. - **Outlook**: Due to the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the supply decreased. The demand was weak. The price is expected to fall, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [24][25]. 10. Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: The synthetic rubber futures rose 4.27%. The price of butadiene decreased, and the inventory began to decline [26][27]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to device maintenance, oil price trends, and tire export orders [26][27][28]. 11. Natural Rubber - **Performance**: The natural rubber futures rose. The price of Thai glue was high, and the inventory continued to increase [29]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a state of long - short game, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [29][30]. 12. PVC - **Performance**: The PVC futures fell 4.58%. The spot price decreased, and the inventory increased [31]. - **Outlook**: The cost support is strong, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to inventory changes and demand recovery [31][32][33]. 13. Urea - **Performance**: The urea futures fell 0.32%. The spot price was stable [34]. - **Outlook**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to export policies and demand connection [34][35]. 14. PX - **Performance**: The PX futures fell 3.67%. The profit and spread decreased [36]. - **Outlook**: The short - term processing fee has room for repair. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [36][37]. 15. PTA - **Performance**: The PTA futures fell 3.09%. The processing fee was around 300 yuan/ton [38]. - **Outlook**: The supply decreased, and the demand was weak. The market is in a long - short game, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [38]. 16. Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: The ethylene glycol futures fell 4.96%. The inventory increased [39]. - **Outlook**: The inventory may decrease, but the cost is uncertain. It is necessary to pay attention to negotiation progress and spring inspection [39]. 17. Short - Fiber - **Performance**: The short - fiber futures fell 2.94%. The supply decreased, and the demand was weak [40]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption [40]. 18. Bottle Chips - **Performance**: The bottle - chip futures fell 2.43%. The processing fee was around 1200 yuan/ton [41]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals change little. The processing fee is recovering, but the raw material price is uncertain. It is recommended to operate cautiously [41]. 19. Soda Ash - **Performance**: The soda ash futures rose 0.32%. The production increased, and the inventory decreased [42][43]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals change little, and the price is expected to remain high and consolidate [43]. 20. Glass - **Performance**: The glass futures fell 0.94%. The production line decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly [46]. - **Outlook**: The cost support exists, and the market sentiment may fluctuate [46]. 21. Caustic Soda - **Performance**: The caustic soda futures fell 3.06%. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [47]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to rise due to export and cost factors. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas device dynamics and inventory changes [47][48]. 22. Pulp - **Performance**: The pulp futures rose 0.04%. The port inventory decreased, and the production increased [49]. - **Outlook**: The inventory decline supports the price, and the market sentiment is expected to stabilize [49]. 23. Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: The lithium carbonate futures rose 4.34%. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped [50][51]. - **Outlook**: The supply is tight, and the demand is improving. The price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [51]. 24. Copper - **Performance**: The copper futures rose 1.11%. The inflation expectations and geopolitical situation suppress the price, but the supply is tight, and the demand has a bottom [52]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly with a bottom [52][53]. 25. Aluminum - **Performance**: The aluminum futures fell 0.13%, and the alumina futures fell 0.98%. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the inventory increases [54][55]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly with support [55][56]. 26. Zinc - **Performance**: The zinc futures rose 0.35%. The supply increases, and the demand in the real estate sector is weak [57]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be under pressure [57][58]. 27. Lead - **Performance**: The lead futures fell 0.09%. The supply of primary lead increases, and the demand is weak [59][60]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [60][61]. 28. Tin - **Performance**: The tin futures rose 0.69%. The supply is tight, and the demand in the emerging fields is strong [62]. - **Outlook**: The price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [62]. 29. Nickel - **Performance**: The nickel futures rose 1.33%. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is weak [63][64]. - **Outlook**: The overall supply is in surplus, and it is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [63][64]. 30. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: The soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the demand for biodiesel is expected to increase [65]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see [65][66]. 31. Palm Oil - **Performance**: The palm oil price fell. The export increased, and the inventory is at a high level [67][68]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to consider closing long positions [67][68][69]. 32. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Performance**: The rapeseed futures rose. The import of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal increased, and the inventory decreased [70]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see [70][71]. 33. Cotton - **Performance**: The cotton futures fluctuated. The import increased, and the global cotton production is expected to decrease [72][73]. - **Outlook**: The long - term price has support, but the short - term supply pressure is relieved by the quota issuance [73][74]. 34. Sugar - **Performance**: The domestic sugar futures fluctuated, and the international sugar futures fell. The domestic import increased, and the production is expected to increase [75][76]. - **Outlook**: The international situation is favorable for the price, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The long - term price has a bottom [76][77]. 35. Apple - **Performance**: The apple futures fluctuated. The inventory decreased, and the production is expected to decrease [78][79]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be stable and strong during the Qingming Festival, and it is necessary to pay attention to inventory and weather [78][79]. 36. Live Pigs - **Performance**: The live - pig futures fell 0.55%. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak [80]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [80]. 37. Eggs - **Performance**: The egg futures fell 0.06%. The production cost increased, and the inventory is at a high level [81][82]. - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to remain high, and it is recommended to wait and see [82]. 38. Corn and Starch - **Performance**: The corn and starch futures fell. The inventory of North Port is low, and the demand is slightly improved [83][84]. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply and demand are basically balanced. The starch may be slightly stronger than corn. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - term put options [84][85]. 39. Logs - **Performance**: The log futures fell 0.67%. The inventory decreased, and the demand improved [86][87]. - **Outlook**: The supply may shrink due to price and cost factors. The market is affected by the geopolitical situation [87][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, macro - economic conditions, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries show different trends, and investors need to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to specific situations [5][8][10] - Some industries may face price fluctuations and uncertainties due to geopolitical conflicts, while others are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [13][15][18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.52% to 111.240 yuan, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.02% to 108.165 yuan, the 5 - year main contract was flat at 105.915 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% to 102.478 yuan [5] - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. The market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract rose 1.41%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract rose 1.66%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract rose 2.72%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract rose 3.09% [7] - The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but asset valuations are low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9] 3.3 Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract closed at 977.28 with a 3.97% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 17,085 with a 10.86% increase [10] - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [10][11] 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,990 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3,120 - 3,240 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was quoted at 3,280 - 3,300 yuan/ton [12] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. Rebar prices may rebound but with limited space. Hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [13][14] 3.5 Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The PB powder port spot price was 795 yuan/ton, and the Super Special powder spot price was 680 yuan/ton [15] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The increase in iron ore demand may support prices, but the impact may be limited. From a technical perspective, iron ore futures may rebound in the short term. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [15][16] 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated at high levels [17] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. For coking coal, the supply may increase, and attention should be paid to the pressure. For coke, the supply is stable, and the increase in demand supports prices. From a technical perspective, coking coal and coke futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [18][19] 3.7 Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.43% to 6,480 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 0.20% to 6,100 yuan/ton. The Tianjin manganese - silicon spot price rose 80 yuan/ton to 6,300 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - iron price rose 80 yuan/ton to 5,680 yuan/ton [20] - The cost of ferroalloys has limited downward space, and the overall oversupply pressure continues. The recent improvement in profitability in the main production areas weakens the cost support. The short - term surplus of silicon - iron may increase, and the inventory continues to accumulate [20] 3.8 Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to the US delaying the attack on Iranian power plants and the possibility of negotiations between the US and Iran [21] - The increase in net long positions in CFTC futures and options shows that US funds are more optimistic about the future of crude oil. However, the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed, and the US and Iran may cease fire for a month for negotiations. It is recommended to focus on short - entry opportunities for INE crude oil [22][23] 3.9 Polyolefins - Last trading day, the Hangzhou PP market mostly declined, and the Yuyao LLDPE market also fell [24] - Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the cost pressure has increased, the futures fluctuate frequently, and the industry's operating rate has continued to decline. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. It is recommended to focus on short - entry opportunities for polyolefins [24][25] 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.06%. The mainstream price of butadiene rubber in Shandong remained stable at 16,600 - 17,000 yuan/ton [26] - The current main contradiction is cost - driven. The short - term price may maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of device maintenance in the second half of the month, the trend of crude oil prices, and changes in tire export orders [26][28] 3.11 Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.37%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 2.27%. The Shanghai spot price of whole - latex increased to around 16,300 yuan/ton [29] - The current core contradiction is the game between the increase in synthetic rubber cost and the expected substitution demand for natural rubber due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the approaching domestic production area opening and slow demand recovery and inventory pressure. The short - term is a multi - empty game, and the price may maintain a wide - range oscillation [29][30] 3.12 PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract fell 4.41%, and the spot price in the East China region decreased by 250 yuan/ton [31] - The current core contradiction is the game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by overseas geopolitical conflicts, the start of domestic spring demand, and high inventory. In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price may oscillate strongly, but the upward space is restricted by high inventory. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm and demand recovery strength [31][33] 3.13 Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract fell 1.06%, and the spot price in Shandong Linyi increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,880 yuan/ton [34] - The recent main contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price oscillates weakly, but the cost support and the arrival of the demand peak season limit the downward space. In the medium term, attention should be paid to whether the export policy will be adjusted and the demand connection after April [34][35] 3.14 PX - Last trading day, the PX2605 main contract fell 4.22%. The PX profit has dropped significantly, and the PXN spread has dropped to around 65 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread has dropped to around 88 US dollars/ton [36] - Affected by the supply concerns of upstream raw materials, domestic refineries have reduced their loads. The short - term PXN spread and short - process profit are continuously compressed, and the processing fee has room for repair. The PX price may oscillate widely in the short term, and cautious operation is recommended [36][37] 3.15 PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell 4.15%. The PTA processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton [38] - Affected by the shrinkage of raw material supply, PTA production cuts have increased. The cost support has collapsed recently. The short - term is a multi - empty game, and cautious operation is recommended, paying attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and changes in crude oil prices [38] 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 6.23%. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 66.45%, and the inventory in some main ports in East China has increased [39][40] - The short - term Strait passage has loosened, and the import is expected to shrink. The inventory may gradually decrease, and there is support below. The short - term geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and cautious treatment is required, paying attention to the negotiation progress and Strait situation [40] 3.17 Short Fibers - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract fell 3.28%. The short - fiber device load has slightly decreased [41] - Recently, the short - fiber supply has declined, and the terminal factory inventory has decreased. The overall supply - demand has weakened slightly. The short - term still trades based on the cost logic. Attention should be paid to the progress of the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and the resumption progress of downstream factories [41] 3.18 Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle - chip 2605 main contract fell 3.38%. The bottle - chip processing fee is adjusted to around 1,200 yuan/ton [42] - The supply - demand fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much, and the processing fee continues to repair. The manufacturer's price - holding intention is relatively strong. Due to the changeable Middle East situation, the price fluctuations of crude oil and PTA may increase. Cautious participation is recommended, paying attention to the geopolitical situation, device operation dynamics, and cost changes [42][43] 3.19 Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1,240 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase [44] - The supply of soda ash remains high, the inventory has decreased to some extent, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The short - term price may oscillate steadily under emotional support [44] 3.20 Glass - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass closed at 1,064 yuan/ton with a 1.12% decrease [45] - The glass production line continues to shrink, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and the downstream order recovery is slow. The cost support is still there, and the subsequent market sentiment may fluctuate [45][46] 3.21 Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,557 yuan/ton with a 1.27% decrease [47] - The supply of caustic soda has decreased slightly, and the inventory has also decreased. The price of alumina has risen, which supports the price of caustic soda. The 50% and 32% caustic soda prices are bifurcated. Attention should be paid to overseas device dynamics, export order implementation, domestic inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [47][48] 3.22 Pulp - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of pulp closed at 5,210 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase [49] - The port inventory of pulp continues to decrease, and the domestic supply has changed little. The market sentiment is expected to stabilize. The risk of needle - leaf pulp fluctuation is relatively large, and broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable with cost support [49] 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 6.11% to 152,940 yuan/ton [50] - The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped. The supply of lithium carbonate is tight, and the demand in the consumer end is improving. The social inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict [50] 3.24 Copper - Last trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 94,670 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase [51] - The inflation expectation has almost erased the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the global risk preference is suppressed. The supply of refined copper is at risk of contraction, and the demand has a solid bottom. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak oscillation with a bottom [51][52] 3.25 Aluminum - Last trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,810 yuan/ton with a 0.42% increase, and the alumina main contract closed at 2,962 yuan/ton with a 2.18% decrease [53] - Alumina shows a cost - driven passive rebound, and electrolytic aluminum is under pressure in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The price of alumina may enter an oscillatory adjustment state, and the price of electrolytic aluminum may oscillate weakly, but there is support at the bottom [53][55] 3.26 Zinc - Last trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,880 yuan/ton with a 0.52% decrease [56] - The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, and the domestic refined zinc production has increased. The real - estate sector may drag down the galvanizing field. The zinc price may be under pressure due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the strong - dollar logic [56][57] 3.27 Lead - Last trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,470 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase [58] - The production of primary lead enterprises is increasing, and the resumption of production of secondary lead enterprises is delayed. The demand is flat, and the lead price may run weakly due to the lack of fundamental highlights and macro - pressure on the non - ferrous sector [58][59] 3.28 Tin - Last trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.81% to 348,620 yuan/ton [60] - The US - Iran conflict has released a easing signal, and the market risk preference has recovered. The supply of refined tin is slightly eased, and the demand has short - term support. The short - term price of tin has support below, but the overseas situation is still highly uncertain, and attention should be paid to risk control [60][61] 3.29 Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract fell 0.59% to 133,890 yuan/ton [62] - The US - Iran conflict has released a easing signal, and the market risk preference has recovered. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the cost is expected to rise. The downstream demand is not optimistic, and the refined nickel is still in an oversupply pattern. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [62] 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.60% to 2,961 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.97% to 8,594 yuan/ton [63] - Brazil's soybean harvest progress is over 60%, and the domestic soybean import has slowed down. The short - term supply of soybeans may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. The price of oil and meal may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [63][64] 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. Different sectors show different trends, and investors are advised to be cautious and make decisions based on specific market conditions [5][6][7] - For some sectors, there are short - term uncertainties and potential risks due to geopolitical conflicts, while others are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [9][13][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力合约 rose by 0.10%, 0.07%, 0.06%, and 0.03% respectively [5] - The central bank conducted 130 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 115 billion yuan on that day [5] - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6][7] 3.2 Equity Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures主力合约 fell by 1.31%, 1.29%, 2.37%, and 1.90% respectively [9] - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and there is room for repair. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait on the sidelines [9] 3.3 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold主力合约 fell by 4.63%, and the silver主力合约 fell by 9.99% [11] - The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait on the sidelines [12][13] 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industry supply - demand logic. Rebar prices may rebound, but the space may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [15] 3.5 Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. With the end of key meetings, iron ore demand may increase, but the effect may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [17][18] 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. Coking coal supply may increase, and demand is weak. Coke supply is stable, and demand may increase. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions [20] 3.7 Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon主力合约 rose by 0.10%, and the silicon iron主力合约 fell by 0.34%. The cost of ferroalloys is fluctuating upward, and the supply is still in a surplus state. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [22][24] 3.8 Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the intensification of the US - Israel - Iran war. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. However, Israel's decision not to attack Iranian energy facilities and the joint statement of six countries to escort the Strait of Hormuz led to a correction in crude oil prices. It is recommended to wait on the sidelines for the crude oil主力合约 [25][26][27] 3.9 Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the prices of PP in Hangzhou and LLDPE in Yuyao rose. In the short term, polyolefins show a contraction trend. In the long term, the supply pressure will gradually increase, and the demand shows the characteristics of "rising production but cautious procurement". It is recommended to wait on the sidelines [28][29] 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber主力合约 rose by 1.17%. The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to maintain a strong - side shock pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of plant maintenance, crude oil price trends, and changes in tire export orders [30][31] 3.11 Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber主力合约 fell by 2.51%, and the 20 - grade rubber主力合约 fell by 2.08%. The Middle East conflict increases the cost of synthetic rubber, strengthening the substitution demand for natural rubber. However, the expected new rubber supply and slow demand recovery limit the price increase. It is expected to show a wide - range shock pattern [33][35] 3.12 PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC主力合约 rose by 0.39%. The short - term cost support is strong, and the price shows a strong - side shock pattern, but the upside is restricted by high inventory. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm and demand recovery strength in the medium term [36][37] 3.13 Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea主力合约 fell by 0.32%. The current market is facing high supply and policy constraints. The demand is weak, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of export policies and the demand connection after April [38][39] 3.14 PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2605主力合约 fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed. The supply is expected to be tight, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. PX is expected to enter the de - stocking stage. However, due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, the price may fluctuate and there is a risk of correction [40] 3.15 PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2605主力合约 fell. The processing fee was adjusted, and the downstream demand was weak. The price is mainly affected by the cost side. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, it is recommended to operate with caution [41] 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol主力合约 rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The short - term trend is stronger than other polyester varieties, but due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, caution is needed [42] 3.17 Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2606主力合约 rose slightly. The supply is gradually increasing, and the terminal demand is stable. The low inventory and strong cost may provide support. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, plant dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [43][44][45] 3.18 Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605主力合约 fell. The cost support weakened, and the polyester demand was weak. Due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, it is recommended to participate with caution [46] 3.19 Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the soda ash主力 2605 fell. The supply is at a high level, the inventory is shrinking, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate and adjust, and the fluctuation range is expected to narrow [47][48] 3.20 Glass - On the previous trading day, the glass主力 2605 fell. The production line is shrinking, the inventory reduction speed is slowing down, and the downstream demand recovery is slow. The cost pressure is still there, and the futures price may fluctuate [49] 3.21 Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the caustic soda主力 2605 rose slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price of alumina is rising, and the demand for caustic soda is expected to be good. Attention should be paid to overseas plant dynamics, export orders, domestic inventory changes, and plant maintenance progress [50][51][52] 3.22 Pulp - On the previous trading day, the pulp主力 2605 rose. The port inventory is decreasing, and the downstream demand is weak. The market sentiment is expected to stabilize. The fluctuation risk of softwood pulp is relatively high, and hardwood pulp is relatively stable [53][54] 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate主力合约 fell. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply is in a tight balance. The demand in the consumer end is improving, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term fluctuation may increase [55] 3.24 Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper主力合约 fell. The geopolitical conflict affects the market sentiment, and the supply pressure is large in the short term. However, the downstream demand is improving, which provides support for the price. The copper price is expected to run weakly [56][57][58] 3.25 Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum主力合约 and the alumina主力合约 fell. The supply pressure of alumina is increasing, and the cost support is strengthening. The aluminum production in the Middle East is affected, and the domestic consumption is recovering. The aluminum price is in a phased correction [59][60] 3.26 Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc主力合约 fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by the geopolitical conflict. The social inventory is increasing, and the zinc price is under pressure [61][62] 3.27 Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead主力合约 fell. The production of primary lead is increasing, and the demand for lead - acid batteries is recovering. However, the geopolitical risk affects exports, and the lead price is under pressure [63][64] 3.28 Tin - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin主力合约 fell. The geopolitical conflict affects the price, and the supply is gradually easing. The demand in the emerging fields provides support, and the inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support below, but attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuation [65][66] 3.29 Nickel - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures主力合约 rose. The geopolitical conflict affects the price, and the nickel ore supply is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in a surplus state. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [67] 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching 60%, and the high oil price provides support. The domestic soybean supply may be tight in the short term and relatively loose in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69] 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The export volume increased, and the domestic inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider reducing or closing long positions [70][71] 3.32 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed price rose. The domestic import policy has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil shows different trends. It is recommended to wait and see [72][73] 3.33 Cotton - On the previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly. The global cotton production is expected to decrease in the new season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long term, and the cotton price is expected to run strongly in the long term [74][75][76] 3.34 Sugar - On the previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly. The foreign sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The increase in oil price will affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil, and the long - term sugar price bottom is expected to rise [77][78] 3.35 Apple - On the previous trading day, the apple futures rose significantly. With the peak of Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the demand is released, and the inventory is decreasing. The apple market is expected to run strongly [79] 3.36 Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, the live pig主力合约 fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions [80][81] 3.37 Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg主力合约 fell. The egg supply is expected to be at a high level in March, and the supply improvement in the far - month is worrying. It is recommended to hold short positions in the far - month lightly [82] 3.38 Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn主力合约 rose slightly, and the corn starch主力合约 was flat. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced. The demand for corn starch is improving, but the supply is abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of out - of - the - money put options when the price rises sharply [83][84][85] 3.39 Logs - On the previous trading day, the log主力 2605 rose. The supply of New Zealand logs is increasing, and the downstream demand is improving. The cost pressure is increasing, and the futures price is in a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to the external market quotation, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [86][87]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but includes individual commodity trend strengths, such as strong (2), moderately strong (1), neutral (0), moderately weak (-1), and weak (-2) [72][75][85] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market conditions, and trends of various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors significantly influence commodity prices [72][104][137] Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out. The price of Comex gold 2602 rose 1.02%, and London gold spot rose 0.63%. The trend strength is 0 [2][7] - **Silver**: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction. The price of Comex silver 2602 rose 1.78%, and London silver spot rose 1.86%. The trend strength is 0 [2][7] - **Platinum**: Continuously monitor the support at the current level. The price of platinum futures 2606 rose 3.73%. The trend strength is 0 [25] - **Palladium**: There was a significant outflow from ETF holdings. The price of palladium futures 2606 rose 2.31%. The trend strength is 0 [25] Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory increase is pressuring prices. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract fell 0.30%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk fell 1.07%. The trend strength is 0 [2][10] - **Zinc**: Facing headwinds in the real - world situation. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract fell 0.86%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk fell 0.44%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][13] - **Lead**: Reduced overseas inventory supports prices. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose 1.75%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk rose 1.16%. The trend strength is 0 [2][16] - **Tin**: Trading in a range. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.63%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk fell 0.97%. The trend strength is 0 [2][20] - **Aluminum**: Trading in a range. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract fell 180. The trend strength is 0 [23] - **Nickel**: The accumulation of smelting inventory and macro - sentiment resonate, while the shortage at the mine end supports the downside. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 460. The trend strength is 0 [30] - **Stainless Steel**: Fundamentals and macro - factors exert pressure, while the actual cost provides support. The price of the stainless - steel main contract fell 25. The trend strength is 0 [30] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The report does not directly cover crude oil, but geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have a significant impact on energy - related commodities [137] - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: Trading in a wide range. The price of the coking coal 2605 contract fell 5. The trend strength is 0 [59] - **Coke**: Trading in a wide range. The price of the coke 2605 contract fell 14. The trend strength is 0 [59] - **Steam Coal**: Prices in the producing areas are rising, and the decline at ports is slowing. The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 coal remained unchanged at 585. The trend strength is - 1 [62] - **Fuel Oil**: Narrow - range adjustment, with prices remaining high in the short term. The price of the fuel oil 2604 contract fell 1.67%. The trend strength is 0 [129] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Rose at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market rebounded. The price of the low - sulfur fuel oil 2604 contract fell 1.26%. The trend strength is 1 [129] Agricultural Products - **Grains**: - **Corn**: Trading in a range. The price of the corn 2605 contract fell 0.42%. The trend strength is 0 [161] - **Soybeans**: - **Soybean Meal**: The market sentiment is recovering, and Dalian soybean meal may trade in a range. The price of the DCE soybean meal 2605 contract fell 0.42%. The trend strength is 0 [157] - **Soybean**: The spot price in the producing areas is stable, and the futures price may trade in a range. The price of the DCE soybean 2605 contract rose 0.02%. The trend strength is 0 [158] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: There are frequent speculative themes, and it remains strong in the short term. The price of the palm oil main contract fell 0.56%. The trend strength is 1 [151] - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force from the soybean complex is limited. Attention should be paid to the China - US consultation process. The price of the soybean oil main contract fell 0.83%. The trend strength is 0 [151] - **Others**: - **Eggs**: Trading in a range. The price of the egg 2604 contract fell 0.46%. The trend strength is 0 [176] - **Hogs**: De - stocking and weight - reduction will start, and the duration may exceed expectations. The price of the hog 2605 contract fell 115. The trend strength is - 2 [179] - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The price of the peanut 604 contract rose 0.15%. The trend strength is 0 [184] Chemical Products - **Aromatics and Derivatives**: - **Para - Xylene**: Unilaterally oscillating strongly. The price of the PX main contract fell 1.59%. The trend strength is 1 [68] - **PTA**: Unilaterally oscillating strongly. The price of the PTA main contract fell 0.92%. The trend strength is 1 [68] - **MEG**: Unilaterally oscillating strongly. The price of the MEG main contract fell 1.45%. The trend strength is 1 [68] - **Styrene**: Oscillating strongly. The price of the styrene 2605 contract rose 101. The trend strength is 1 [109] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating strongly. The price of the pure benzene 2605 contract fell 10. The trend strength is 1 [148] - **Polyolefins**: - **LLDPE**: Cracking supply is contracting, and downstream resistance to high prices is emerging. The price of the LLDPE 2605 contract fell 2.09%. The trend strength is 1 [82] - **PP**: The supply of multiple raw materials is restricted, and exports continue to be favorable. The price of the PP 2605 contract fell 2.10%. The trend strength is 1 [82] - **Others**: - **Caustic Soda**: The futures premium is relatively large, and the market is oscillating widely. The price of the caustic soda 05 contract is 2523. The trend strength is 0 [87] - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating weakly. The price of the paper pulp main contract fell 144. The trend strength is - 1 [91] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of the glass 605 contract fell 1.97%. The trend strength is 0 [97] - **Methanol**: Running strongly. The price of the methanol main contract rose 10. The trend strength is 1 [100] - **Urea**: Oscillating widely, with fundamentals supporting prices. The price of the urea 05 contract fell 22. The trend strength is 0 [106] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The price of the soda ash 2605 contract fell 1.43%. The trend strength is 1 [112] - **Propylene**: Geopolitical disturbances at the cost end may lead to a supply reduction. The price of the propylene 2604 contract fell 2.14%. The trend strength is 1 [117] - **PVC**: Adjusting in the short term. The price of the PVC 05 contract is 5901. The trend strength is 0 [125] Others - **Logs**: The cost is rising, and prices are increasing. The price of the log 2605 contract rose 0.4%. The trend strength is 0 [64] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical sentiment disturbances. The price of the EC2604 contract fell 0.04%. The trend strength is 1 [131] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: High - level fluctuations, with strong cost - driven factors. The price of the short - fiber 2604 contract fell 20, and the price of the bottle - chip 2604 contract fell 348. The trend strength is 1 [141] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The price of the 70g Tianyang paper in the Shandong market remained unchanged at 4500. The trend strength is 0 [144] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar is strengthening, and it is oscillating strongly. The price of the sugar futures main contract fell 66. The trend strength is 1 [165] - **Cotton**: Temporarily showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. The price of the CF2605 contract fell 0.42%. The trend strength is 1 [169]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The chemical market is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical risks, supply and demand dynamics, and cost fluctuations. Different chemical products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. With price concessions, downstream demand increased, inventory pressure eased, and prices rose slightly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures fluctuated above the 5 - day moving average. For polyethylene, supply decreased due to more maintenance and less imports, and demand was stable. For polypropylene, supply was expected to shrink, but high prices restricted downstream procurement [2] Polyester - PX and PTA prices declined due to negative factors such as tanker passage in the Strait of Hormuz and terminal feedback. Middle - East oil supply may recover, and terminal demand was weak [3] - Ethylene glycol prices first rose due to supply concerns and then fell due to reduced negative expectations and downstream feedback [3] - Short - fiber load decreased slightly, and the market followed raw material fluctuations. Bottle - chip supply decreased, and prices may be pressured if oil supply recovers [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - East China pure benzene spot prices fell, and domestic production decreased. Port inventory decreased. Short - term prices were affected by cost and supply [5] - Styrene futures opened low and closed high, with a high - level consolidation pattern. Supply and demand were expected to decrease, and the fundamentals had some support [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures maintained a high - level shock. Import and domestic supply decreased, and demand recovered. The market was expected to be strong [6] - Urea futures prices fell, and the spot market was stable with a slight decline. Supply was high, and agricultural demand weakened. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC continued a strong trend. Supply decreased, inventory was still under pressure, and downstream demand increased seasonally. It was expected to be strong in the short term [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased, and export inquiries were good. The market followed sentiment but might have large fluctuations [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fell from a high level. Inventory decreased slightly, supply increased slightly, and demand was stable. It followed macro - sentiment in the short term [8] - Glass fluctuated weakly. Inventory was high, and demand improvement was limited. It might show a wide - range shock [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The current macro data is stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market for various commodities shows different trends due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [6][9] - Different commodities have different market outlooks and investment strategies, including maintaining caution, waiting and seeing, looking for low - position buying opportunities, etc. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.43%, 0.11%, 0.08%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank carried out 137.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on March 16, with a net investment of 88.8 billion yuan [5] - **Economic Data**: From January to February, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.3%, service industry production index increased by 5.2%, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8%. Real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% [5] - **Outlook**: There is still some pressure in the future market, and it is necessary to remain cautious [6][7] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 0.06%, - 0.26%, - 0.62%, and - 0.21% respectively [8] - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved initial consensus. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, the Iranian situation is highly uncertain, and market volatility is expected to increase significantly [9] - **Strategy**: Temporarily hold an empty position and wait and see [10] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,118.34 with a decline of 1.29%, and the silver main contract closed at 20,301 with a decline of 2.97% [11] - **Factors Affecting the Market**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases support the price. But due to the previous sharp rise and the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility will increase [11] - **Strategy**: Keep waiting and seeing [12] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot price of Tangshan billet is 2980 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar is 3130 - 3250 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260 - 3280 yuan/ton [13] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment. In the long - term, the real estate industry is in a downward trend, and rebar demand is decreasing year - on - year. In the medium - term, it is entering the peak demand season. Supply pressure is reduced, and inventory changes are worthy of attention [14] - **Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to low - position long opportunities and manage positions carefully [14][15] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly corrected. PB powder port spot price is 795 yuan/ton, and super special powder is 675 yuan/ton [16] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment. After the key meeting, iron ore demand may expand, but the supply in the first two months increased by 10% year - on - year, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period of the past five years [16] - **Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to low - position long opportunities and manage positions carefully [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and consolidated [18] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment. Coking coal supply may increase, and demand is weak. Coke supply is stable, and demand may expand after the key meeting [18] - **Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to low - position buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [18][19] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.77% to 6162 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 1.21% to 5872 yuan/ton [20] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level. The output of ferroalloys is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, but the supply is still loose, and inventory is accumulating [20] - **Strategy**: Consider taking long - position profit - taking opportunities after a rapid short - term price rebound [22] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the expansion of the US - Israel - Iran war and the continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz [23] - **Market Data**: Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. The Iranian parliament said that Ukraine has become a legitimate target for Iran [23] - **Outlook**: The increase in net long positions shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. Although the Iranian oil export is not affected and the tension between the US and Iran seems to ease, the prospect of global oil supply shortage still exists [24] - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for the main crude oil contract [25] Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market fluctuated higher, and the Yuyao LLDPE price rose 50 - 150 yuan/ton [26] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the contraction of polyolefins is obvious, and the average capacity utilization rate decreased by 4.52%. In the long - term, imports may decrease in April, but new domestic and foreign production facilities are planned to be put into operation, and supply pressure will be gradually released. Downstream demand shows the characteristics of "rising start - up but cautious purchasing" [26] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long opportunities [27] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.60%, and the price of Shandong mainstream butadiene rubber was adjusted down to 15200 - 15400 yuan/ton [28] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The core driver is the increase in crude oil prices due to the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The production cost of butadiene has soared, and some devices are planned for maintenance. The supply of butadiene rubber is high, and demand is in the recovery stage. The cost is seriously inverted, and inventory is turning to destocking [28][29] - **Outlook**: Strong - side oscillation [30] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 0.71%, and the 20 - grade rubber main contract fell 0.44%. The Shanghai spot whole - latex price was stable at around 16800 yuan/ton [31] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The core driver is the increase in crude oil prices due to the weekend Middle - East geopolitical conflict, which strengthens the substitution demand for natural rubber. The global main production areas are in the low - production season, and demand is in the recovery stage but lower than last year. Inventory is still in the accumulation stage, but the accumulation rate may slow down [31] - **Outlook**: Strong - side oscillation (supported by substitution demand and low - production season in the short - term, focusing on inventory destocking and demand recovery in the medium - term) [31] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 2.09%, and the spot price in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton [32] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The core drivers are the concerns about energy and raw material supply due to overseas geopolitical conflicts and the start of domestic spring demand. The supply capacity utilization rate is high, demand is gradually starting but at a low seasonal level, the cost of ethylene - based PVC has increased, and inventory is in the accumulation stage [32][33] - **Outlook**: Strong - side oscillation [34] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.32%, and the Shandong Linyi spot price was 1890 yuan/ton [35] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The core drivers are the global urea supply disturbance caused by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and domestic spring plowing demand. Supply is stable, demand is released intensively, cost is stable, and inventory is decreasing [35] - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly [36] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract rose 0.47% and fell 3.8% at night [37] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, PX load decreased, downstream polyester and terminal start - up are gradually increasing. Supply may be tightened due to plant shutdowns and spring inspections, and it is expected to enter the destocking channel [37] - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly in the short - term, and consider cautious low - position operations, paying attention to oil price changes and situation development [37] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 0.32% and fell 3.25% at night. The processing fee rose to around 300 yuan/ton [38] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply load decreased, demand load increased, and the 3 - month supply - demand expectation may improve. The price is mainly affected by the cost side, and the geopolitical situation is uncertain [38] - **Strategy**: Consider cautious operations, paying attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and oil price changes [38] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 3.31% and fell 2.76% at night [39] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply load decreased, imports are expected to decrease, and inventory is expected to be destocked. The downstream polyester start - up increased, and the geopolitical situation is highly uncertain [39] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the progress of the geopolitical situation and the situation of the Strait, and the subsequent elasticity depends on the spring inspection rhythm and demand fulfillment [39] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract rose 0.94% [40] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply load increased, downstream terminal start - up increased, raw material inventory decreased, and the cost side is strong but there is a risk of high - level correction [40] - **Outlook**: Trade based on the cost side in the short - term, and pay attention to the progress of the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption [40] Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract rose 7.44% [41] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Many bottle - chip manufacturers stopped selling and cut contract volumes, inventory decreased sharply, supply is expected to shrink, demand increased, and the cost side is strong [41] - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly following the cost side, with increased volatility, and consider cautious low - position participation, paying attention to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [41] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1256 yuan/ton, down 1.64% [42] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Soda ash production increased slightly, inventory decreased slightly, downstream demand is average, and the profitability of associated alkali manufacturers improved [42] - **Outlook**: The fundamental support is not significant, and the market sentiment fluctuates. Pay attention to risk control [43] Glass - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1102 yuan/ton, down 2.74% [44] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production lines decreased, inventory decreased slightly, demand recovery is slow, and the spot trading atmosphere is weak [44] - **Outlook**: The long - short game intensifies after the price reaches a relatively high level. Pay attention to position control and follow - up changes in the Middle - East situation [44] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 2547 yuan/ton, down 0.62% [45] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply decreased slightly, inventory decreased, some manufacturers may have maintenance plans in March, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The long - term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may affect overseas production and increase China's export advantage [45][46] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to overseas device dynamics, export orders, domestic inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [46] Pulp - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5232 yuan/ton, down 0.68% [47] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Domestic production may decrease due to maintenance, port inventory decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. The price of coniferous pulp is affected by macro - sentiment, and the price of broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable [47][48] - **Outlook**: The downstream demand recovery is slow, and the follow - up to the price increase is insufficient [48] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 1.75% to 159620 yuan/ton [49] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Affected by the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, the global lithium resource balance is being reshaped. Supply may be in a tight balance, and demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving. Inventory is gradually decreasing [49] - **Outlook**: The price has strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Pay attention to the follow - up of the Zimbabwean embargo and the US - Iran geopolitical situation [49] Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100190 yuan/ton, up 0.58% [50] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the US dollar is strong, and the macro - level pressure is significant. The mine end is tight, and the supply in March is expected to reach a record high, with high inventory. Downstream demand has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly [50][51] - **Outlook**: Weak - side oscillation [52] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24970 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2989 yuan/ton, up 0.57% [53] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Alumina supply pressure is high, and the cost support is limited. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict affects overseas production, and supply tightening is expected. Domestic downstream consumption has recovered, and inventory changes are different [53] - **Outlook**: Strong - side operation [54] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 23880 yuan/ton, down 0.56% [55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Domestic supply increased, overseas supply is disturbed, demand is expected to increase seasonally, but the actual recovery is uncertain, and inventory is increasing [55][56] - **Outlook**: Pressured oscillation [57] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16405 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [58] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The start - up of primary lead enterprises increased, the resumption of secondary lead is slow, and lead - battery enterprises have fully resumed work. However, geopolitical risks affect exports, and inventory is increasing [58] - **Outlook**: Pressured adjustment [59] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 2.43% to 381840 yuan/ton [60] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the supply situation is complex. The supply shortage has eased,

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on March 16, 2026 [3] Commodity Performance - As of the close on January 16, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Asphalt rose over 10%, bottle chips rose over 7%, ethylene glycol (EG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose over 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, polypropylene (PP), plastic, and palm oil rose over 2%. In terms of declines, Shanghai silver fell over 6%, palladium fell over 4%, platinum, container shipping on the European line, rapeseed meal, polysilicon, Shanghai tin, and live pigs fell over 3%, and glass and Shanghai gold fell over 2% [6] - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract rose 0.08%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.26%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract fell 0.62%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.23%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) main contract fell 0.04%, the 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) main contract fell 0.08%, the 10-year treasury bond futures (T) main contract fell 0.11%, and the 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) main contract fell 0.43% [7] Market Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. Tensions in the Middle East remain high, and if the conflict continues, inflation pressure will rise, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing copper prices. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year has converged to one, providing weak support for copper prices [9] - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, China imported 4.934 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventories are at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the shortage of copper resources still supports copper prices [9] - The spread between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has narrowed. The output of electrolytic copper in March increased by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. On the demand side, the copper product sector has seen an increase in开工 after the "Golden March and Silver April." However, terminal data shows no optimistic performance, and the feedback on copper prices from the terminal is weak. New energy vehicle production and sales decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% year-on-year respectively [9] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be weak this week. If the war continues and inflation expectations rise, copper prices will remain weak. If the situation eases, copper prices may rebound [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed lower today but rebounded at the end of the session. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 156,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 153,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [11] - Lithium concentrate exports from all lithium producers in Zimbabwe have been suspended. Local lithium mining companies are submitting new export license applications to the Zimbabwean government, and the approval process is expected to take 2 to 4 weeks. The domestic production schedule in March 2026 is 106,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.4%. There is a high probability of复产 in the domestic lithium mining sector, which is a potential negative factor [11] - Overall inventory continues to decline, but the decline rate is narrowing. Downstream inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation rate has slowed down. Terminal demand shows a marginal weakening trend. Overall, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are marginally weakening. If the news of the new export license application is confirmed, the previous gains may be reversed. The supply is expected to continue to increase, while the demand is approaching the photovoltaic tariff window period. The market is expected to be in a wide range of fluctuations in the short term [11] Crude Oil - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, but the decrease in refined oil inventories was significant, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories [12] - The US, Israel, and Iran are still attacking each other. Iran's daily oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz, where Iran is located, is a major shipping route for crude oil. The near-complete suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz for several days has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil-producing countries [12][13] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, equivalent to one-third of their total production capacity and about 6% of global supply. Although Trump said the war is basically over, Iran has stated that it controls the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and has fired on some merchant ships. The US Energy Secretary said it is "highly likely" to provide escort for ships in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month [13] - The IEA has announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the delivery speed is slow. The US Treasury Department has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian maritime oil. These measures have alleviated short-term supply pressure, but are still less than the previous crude oil shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of crude oil price spikes remains, and the frequent news of the Middle East situation has a significant impact on crude oil prices [13] Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% last week, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons [14] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the开工率 of most asphalt downstream industries increased. The national asphalt shipments increased by 12.67% to 176,100 tons, but are still at a low level. The asphalt plant inventory rate remained unchanged, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate is at the lowest level in recent years [14] - The price of asphalt in Shandong has been adjusted, and the basis has dropped to a relatively low level. The import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is expected to decrease significantly compared to before the US intervention, and the supply of Middle Eastern raw materials will be affected by the US-Israel attack on Iran. The market is concerned about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [14] - Dongming Petrochemical has resumed production, and the asphalt开工率 has increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand has gradually recovered. The supply and demand of asphalt have both increased, and the cost support is significant. The market is focused on the tense situation in the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation. The expected production cuts of refineries have increased. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the strong performance of crude oil prices in the near future, with large fluctuations [15] PP - As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream's acceptance of high-priced raw materials is not high, and the demand recovery is slow. However, the开工率 of the main downstream plastic products of PP continued to increase by 2.88 percentage points to 40.54% [16] - On March 16, some parking devices such as the first-phase second-line of Zhongjing Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 increased to about 77.5%, which is at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard-grade PP decreased to about 23.5%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [16] - On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz. The number of parking devices has increased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand has been released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP films has increased [16] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of PP has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on Middle Eastern imports, its upstream depends on Middle Eastern liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The PP price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [16] Plastic - On March 16, there was little change in the parking devices, and the plastic开工率 remained at about 87.5%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PE increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production, but has not yet returned to the pre-holiday level. The overall downstream开工率 of PE shows seasonal changes [17][18] - After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz [18] - In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA was put into production in January 2026. There are no plans to put new production capacity into operation in the first quarter. The plastic开工率 has decreased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream factories have increased their resumption of work, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The prices of agricultural films in North China, East China, and South China have all increased [18] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of plastic has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Iranian PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production. The imports from the entire Middle East region account for about 20% of domestic production. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the procurement has become more cautious. The spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The plastic price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [18] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region has increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the PVC开工率 increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35%, and the PVC开工率 has increased, but is still at a neutral to high level in recent years. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the average downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 3.49 percentage points to 39.33%, which is 3.13 percentage points lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production [19] - In terms of exports, due to the increase in Asian market prices, export inquiries have improved. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and continued to increase last week, and is still at a relatively high level. The inventory pressure is still large. From January to February 2026, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year-on-year decline in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas is still large. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the commercial housing transactions have increased month-on-month, but are still at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The improvement of the real estate market still takes time [19] - The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the social inventory continues to increase. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has stated that it will focus on key links such as the research and development of mercury-free catalysts to accelerate the mercury-free transformation of the polyvinyl chloride industry. The supply of upstream raw materials for PVC is tight, and the prices of ethylene and calcium carbide continue to rise. There is an expectation of load reduction in the domestic and international PVC markets. This week, ethylene-based devices such as Xinpu Chemical and Zhejiang Jiahua will reduce their operating loads. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. Under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PVC price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [19][20] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed lower but closed higher on the day. Fundamentally, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the domestic mine开工率 has reached 87.16%, a month-on-month increase of 4.84%. The production and开工率 are both at a relatively high level year-on-year. However, due to the impact of overseas military conflicts, the price of coking coal has increased, leading to an increase in the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The coking coal inventory has decreased significantly this period, a month-on-month decrease of 85,800 tons. The downstream coking enterprises and steel mills have replenished their inventories, a month-on-month increase of 199,800 tons and 19,900 tons respectively. However, the coke production has not increased significantly, and the steel mills' profitability has recovered, with the开工 rate increasing by 0.63%, but the start-up speed is slower than in previous years [21] - Although the fundamentals of coking coal have no upward driving force, it is still in a strong consolidation state recently due to the stimulation of inflation expectations and the expectation of energy shortage. If the Middle East situation shows no sign of stopping in the short term, the energy and chemical industry will remain strong. Otherwise, there is a risk of a rapid decline [21] Urea - The market sentiment was high last week, and the rise of futures and international urea has driven the enthusiasm of spot trading. Most regions remained stable this weekend. The ex-factory prices of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [22] - Fundamentally, the state reserve of urea has been released, and the daily production has continuously reached new highs. At present, the gas-based devices have basically completed their resumption of production, and there are sporadic shutdown plans for upstream factories. The resumption and shutdown are parallel, with basically no major changes. The raw material prices of compound fertilizers have all increased to varying degrees this week, and the terminal sales are smooth. The cost and demand have jointly driven the price of compound fertilizer products to rise. Although the开工 rate is gradually increasing, the finished product inventory is still decreasing. Although the topdressing of wheat during the greening period is basically over, subsequent products such as spring corn still require a large amount of high-nitrogen compound fertilizers. Although the increase in raw material prices has squeezed the factory profits, the high demand still corresponds to the high supply [22] - After the sharp increase, the downstream buys when the price rises and does not buy when the price falls, and the terminal sales are smooth. The upstream factory inventory has continued to decrease. Although the current daily production is higher than last year, the inventory has not shown a large increase due to the digestion of downstream demand and the drive of exports. Instead, it shows a looser situation than last year, with no obvious inventory pressure, which is an important reason to support the strong market. Overall, due to the combination of farming and the Middle East situation, urea shows a slight over-increase. Ensuring supply and stabilizing prices during the spring plowing season is still the main tone of the market. The opportunity for a significant increase in the future depends on the export quota after the end of the spring plowing season. It is expected to stabilize in the short term [22][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Polypropylene, plastic, pure benzene, styrene, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, methanol, urea, and caustic soda are rated as ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - PVC is rated as ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Soda ash and glass do not have clear star ratings in the report Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally affected by factors such as the Middle East situation, oil prices, and supply - demand relationships. Different chemical products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures closed higher. Crude oil and propylene futures prices increased, supporting market sentiment. The cost pressure on downstream products eased, and production enterprises were less willing to offer discounts. The trading atmosphere improved slightly [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene closed higher. High - fluctuating oil prices boosted market sentiment. For polyethylene, domestic supply decreased due to more maintenance, and overall supply pressure eased. Demand from the northern spring plowing and packaging film factories was stable but enterprises mainly consumed inventory. For polypropylene, supply was expected to shrink, but high raw material prices restricted downstream purchasing [2] Polyester - Affected by the Middle East situation, PX and PTA prices were strong but faced intraday fluctuations. There was mid - term negative feedback pressure. Ethylene glycol prices rose due to cost and supply factors but also had downstream negative feedback. Short - fiber followed raw material fluctuations, and bottle - chip had opportunities for positive spreads and processing margin repair [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of pure benzene futures continued to be strong, but market sentiment cooled. Domestic pure benzene production and imports were expected to decrease, and short - term cost support was obvious. The main contract of styrene futures closed higher, but the spot market showed weakness [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures market was strong. Import arrivals in coastal areas decreased, and the East China port inventory declined. Domestic production decreased, and demand recovered. The urea market was generally strong. Supply was high, and agricultural demand support weakened, but compound fertilizer enterprises increased their loads [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a strong trend. Overall supply decreased, industry inventory was under pressure, and downstream开工 increased seasonally. The export market was expected to improve. Caustic soda prices fell from high levels. Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased, and export inquiries were good. The national chlorine - alkali load decreased [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fell from high levels. Industry inventory decreased slightly but was still under pressure. Supply remained high, and downstream demand was stable or increasing. Glass prices fell. Mid - and upstream inventory was high, and downstream demand improvement was limited. The market was expected to show wide - range fluctuations [8]