Core Insights - The article highlights the performance of quantitative funds in the A-share market, with several funds achieving over 30% returns year-to-date, particularly noting the exceptional performance of the Nuon Multi-Strategy Mixed Fund with a return of 59.59% [2][3] - In response to the strong market performance, many fund managers have implemented purchase limits to manage inflows and protect existing investors, indicating a cautious approach amidst market enthusiasm [3][4] Fund Performance and Limits - As of August 7, several leading quantitative funds have reported significant year-to-date returns, with the top performers including Nuon Multi-Strategy Mixed Fund (59.59%), CITIC Prudential Multi-Strategy A (38.03%), and Guojin Quantitative Multi-Factor A (30.79%) [2][3] - The purchase limits for these funds have been set between 1,000 to 5,000 yuan per day, reflecting a strategy to control fund size and mitigate potential risks associated with large inflows [3][4] Market Dynamics and Strategy - The article discusses the delicate balance between fund size and performance, emphasizing that excessive inflows can lead to increased trading costs and reduced strategy effectiveness, particularly in small-cap stocks [3][4] - Experts suggest that limiting purchases is a common practice among quantitative strategies to prevent capacity issues and protect the interests of existing investors [3][4] Long-term Viability of Quantitative Funds - The long-term performance of quantitative funds is highlighted, with several funds showing substantial growth since inception, such as Morgan Alpha A with a return of 386.88% [5][7] - Despite the current purchase limits, the article suggests that the underlying market conditions remain favorable for quantitative strategies, as active trading and price volatility continue to provide opportunities for capturing mispriced assets [8][9] Investment Strategies and Recommendations - The article outlines various quantitative investment strategies tailored to different risk appetites, including index-enhanced products, quantitative selection strategies, and thematic investments focused on sectors like technology and AI [9][10] - Investors are advised to dynamically rebalance their strategy combinations based on market conditions, with suggested allocations for conservative, balanced, and aggressive investors [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of small-cap stocks in the A-share market, significantly outperforming larger indices, leading to a surge in public quantitative fund net values, with over 97% of these funds achieving positive returns this year [1][2][3] - The Wind data indicates that as of July 28, 314 out of 652 public quantitative funds have reached historical net value highs, representing over 48% of the total [2][3] - The small-cap stock index reached a historical high of 476,824.12 points on July 29, with a year-to-date return of 50.23%, while the mid-cap indices also showed substantial gains compared to larger indices [2][3] Group 2 - Due to the limited capacity of small-cap stocks to absorb funds, several high-performing products have implemented purchase limits, with some reducing daily purchase limits to as low as 1,000 yuan [3][4] - Approximately 28 quantitative products, including the CITIC Prudential Multi-Strategy Fund, have suspended large purchases, indicating a trend towards tighter purchase limits across the sector [4] - Fund managers suggest that a comfortable management scale for small-cap products is around 20 billion yuan, with a target position maintained between 60% to 80% to manage risks effectively [4] Group 3 - Analysts express concerns about the high "crowding" in small-cap stocks, which could lead to significant risks if market sentiment shifts, although the likelihood of extreme adjustments similar to early 2024 is considered low [6][7][8] - The reliance on sentiment and liquidity in small-cap stocks has raised concerns about their underlying fragility, with many stocks driven by themes rather than solid performance, leading to potential valuation bubbles [6][7] - Fund managers have cautioned about the need to monitor market volatility closely and prepare for potential risks, emphasizing that the current high levels of investment in small-cap stocks may not be sustainable [7][8]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model monitors the breadth of market movements and identifies turning points in stock price diffusion[5][38]. - **Model Construction Process**: The diffusion index is calculated based on the relative price movements of constituent stocks over a specific time window. For example, the current diffusion index value of 0.72 is derived from the relative price changes of stocks in the Wind Micro-Cap Index. The model uses thresholds to signal trading actions: - Left-side threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 8, 2025, at a value of 0.9850[43]. - Right-side threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 15, 2025, at a value of 0.8975[47]. - Dual moving average method triggered a buy signal on July 3, 2025[48]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies market turning points and provides actionable signals for trading strategies[39]. 2. Model Name: Small-Cap Low-Volatility 50 Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects stocks with small market capitalization and low volatility to construct a portfolio[16][35]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Select 50 stocks from the Wind Micro-Cap Index based on small market capitalization and low volatility. - Rebalance the portfolio bi-weekly. - Transaction costs are set at 0.3% for both sides. - Benchmark: Wind Micro-Cap Index (8841431.WI)[16][35]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates strong performance in 2025, with a year-to-date return of 56.90% and a weekly excess return of 0.04%[16][35]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index Model - Left-side threshold method: Sell signal at 0.9850 on May 8, 2025[43]. - Right-side threshold method: Sell signal at 0.8975 on May 15, 2025[47]. - Dual moving average method: Buy signal on July 3, 2025[48]. 2. Small-Cap Low-Volatility 50 Strategy - 2024 return: 7.07%, excess return: -2.93%[16][35]. - 2025 YTD return: 56.90%, weekly excess return: 0.04%[16][35]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: PB Inverse Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the inverse of the price-to-book ratio to identify undervalued stocks[4][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the inverse of the PB ratio for each stock in the Wind Micro-Cap Index. - Rank the stocks based on this value. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor shows strong performance with a weekly rank IC of 0.152, significantly above its historical average of 0.034[4][33]. 2. Factor Name: Illiquidity Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the illiquidity of stocks to identify those with higher potential returns[4][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Measure the average daily turnover over a specific period. - Rank stocks inversely based on their turnover values. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has a weekly rank IC of 0.107, outperforming its historical average of 0.039[4][33]. 3. Factor Name: Profitability Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies stocks with strong profitability metrics[4][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Use metrics such as ROE or net profit margin to rank stocks. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has a weekly rank IC of 0.085, well above its historical average of 0.022[4][33]. 4. Factor Name: Momentum Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the momentum of stock prices to identify trends[4][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the cumulative return over a specific period. - Rank stocks based on their momentum scores. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has a weekly rank IC of 0.069, improving from its historical average of -0.005[4][33]. 5. Factor Name: Leverage Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the financial leverage of companies to identify risk-adjusted opportunities[4][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the debt-to-equity ratio for each stock. - Rank stocks based on their leverage levels. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has a weekly rank IC of 0.064, outperforming its historical average of -0.005[4][33]. --- Factor Backtesting Results Top 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. PB Inverse Factor: 0.152 (Historical Average: 0.034)[4][33]. 2. Illiquidity Factor: 0.107 (Historical Average: 0.039)[4][33]. 3. Profitability Factor: 0.085 (Historical Average: 0.022)[4][33]. 4. Momentum Factor: 0.069 (Historical Average: -0.005)[4][33]. 5. Leverage Factor: 0.064 (Historical Average: -0.005)[4][33]. Bottom 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. Turnover Factor: -0.186 (Historical Average: -0.081)[4][33]. 2. Residual Volatility Factor: -0.154 (Historical Average: -0.040)[4][33]. 3. 10-Day Return Factor: -0.153 (Historical Average: -0.062)[4][33]. 4. 1-Year Volatility Factor: -0.153 (Historical Average: -0.033)[4][33]. 5. 10-Day Free Float Turnover Factor: -0.132 (Historical Average: -0.061)[4][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the contango of various stock index futures contracts has deepened significantly. As of May 30, 2025, the annualized basis rate of IM futures reached -16.59%, approaching the contango levels after the market decline on April 7, 2025, and during the rapid decline of small - cap stocks from late January to early February 2024 [3][10]. - The reasons for the deep contango of IM02 recently include increased hedging demand due to amplified volatility, profit - taking of long positions after the rebound of spot prices, and a possible significant decline in the scale of structured option products such as snowball - like products [3]. - The current crowding degree of small - cap stocks is relatively high, with high trading activity, elevated valuations, and an increasing number of days with large price fluctuations [3]. - To deal with the potential risks of small - cap stocks in fund investment, investors should identify products exposed to small - cap stocks in advance, pay attention to "pseudo - zero market - value exposure" products, and can choose balanced products with relatively large market - value holdings or products with good investment capabilities in adverse small - cap market environments [3][40]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 From the Deep Contango of IM to Analyze Small - Cap Stocks - Are Small - Cap Stocks Facing Crowding Risks Again? 3.1.1 IM Futures Contango Situation - The contango of various stock index futures contracts has deepened since 2025. By the end of May, the annualized basis of IH, IF, and IC reached -5.97%, -7.49%, and -12.59% respectively, with significantly higher contango levels compared to the beginning of the year. The annualized basis rate of IM futures was -16.59% as of May 30, 2025 [3][10]. 3.1.2 Reasons for the Deep Contango of IM Futures - **Increased hedging demand due to amplified volatility**: In early April, market volatility increased due to the trade war, with the 1 - month rolling annualized volatility of CSI 1000 exceeding 45%. The ample Alpha in the small - cap market also increased the attractiveness of neutral strategies and short - selling demand [15]. - **Changes in contract volume and structure**: After the index rebounded on April 7, the total futures contract holdings decreased rapidly, likely due to long - position profit - taking, which intensified the contango. As the delivery week approached, short - term contract contango was expected to converge quickly, leading to early roll - over of long - term hedging demand to buy forward contracts and intensifying the contango [18]. - **Decreased demand for structured option products**: Structured option products such as snowball - like products may face a significant decline in scale recently. The notional principal of over - the - counter derivatives linked to stock indices has decreased significantly since October 2024, from 90.963 billion yuan in September 2024 to 54.440 billion yuan in March 2025, which is consistent with the change in contango [21]. 3.1.3 Potential Impact of Deep Contango - Extreme contango or backwardation may be followed by index movements. Extreme backwardation may indicate market panic and could be followed by a rebound. In the past, when the CSI 1000 experienced a short - term decline of over 10% in 10 trading days, the current - quarter IM futures were in a deep contango situation [24]. 3.1.4 Crowding Degree of Small - Cap Stocks - **High trading activity**: Although the crowding degree of small - cap stocks decreased in May, trading activity remained high. The trading volume of CSI 1000 as a proportion of the total decreased from 23.2% in February 2025 to 19.3% in May 2025, and the turnover ratio also declined but remained at a similar level to December 2023. The trading activity of micro - cap stocks increased significantly recently [29]. - **Elevated valuations**: The valuations of small - cap indices are currently at relatively high levels. The PB ratio of the micro - cap stock index has increased significantly, similar to the trend at the end of 2023. The rolling excess return of the micro - cap index is also at a high level [33]. - **Increased frequency of large price fluctuations**: The number of days with large price fluctuations of micro - cap stocks has increased recently. Since 2025, the proportion of days with large upward price fluctuations has also been at a high level [34]. 3.2 How to Deal with Potential Downward Risks of Small - Cap Stocks in Fund Investment? 3.2.1 Dealing with Potential Downward Risks of Small - Cap Stocks in Fund Investment - **Identify exposed products**: Besides products with obvious long - term exposure to small - cap styles, some products that enhance returns by holding micro - cap stocks may also be affected by the decline of small - cap stocks. "Pseudo - zero market - value exposure" products also need attention [40]. - **Adjust fund selection**: Investors can choose balanced products with relatively large market - value holdings to hedge against potential risks, or prefer products with good investment capabilities in adverse small - cap market environments [40]. 3.2.2 Differences Among Small - Cap Style Products - **Degree of market - value sinking**: Different small - cap style products have different degrees of market - value sinking. For example, Noan Multi - Strategy has a more obvious market - value sinking, while others may have small adjustments in market - value styles [47]. - **Turnover rate**: The turnover rates of small - cap style products vary. GF Quantitative Multi - Factor has a relatively high turnover rate, while CITIC Prudential Multi - Strategy has a moderately low turnover rate [47]. - **Portfolio construction method**: Western Securities Event - Driven focuses on industry allocation and makes active industry adjustments, with more concentrated industry and stock holdings. Other products' fund managers make fewer industry adjustments and have more dispersed stock holdings [50]. - **Timing operations**: CITIC Prudential Multi - Strategy has a long - term tendency for timing operations and recently reduced its positions. Other products pay less attention to timing [50].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of a new policy by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aimed at enhancing the long-term performance of public fund managers by linking their compensation to the performance of their funds relative to benchmarks [2][3] - The policy targets fund managers whose products have underperformed their benchmarks by more than 10 percentage points over three years, leading to a significant reduction in their performance-based compensation [2][3] - The initiative is expected to align the interests of fund managers with those of investors, encouraging a shift away from short-term speculation towards a focus on long-term investment capabilities [2][3] Group 2 - As of May 21, 2023, there are 5,898 public funds managed by fund managers with over three years of experience, with 1,341 funds underperforming their benchmarks by over 10 percentage points [3][4] - Among these, 31 funds have underperformed their benchmarks by more than 50 percentage points, including notable funds managed by well-known managers such as Zheng Chengran from GF Fund and Yao Zhipeng from Harvest Fund [3][4][5] - The worst-performing fund, Morgan Small Cap A, managed by Guo Chen, has a cumulative return of -23.03% over three years, underperforming its benchmark by 127.69 percentage points [4][5] Group 3 - Conversely, there are 543 funds that have outperformed their benchmarks by over 10 percentage points, with 33 funds exceeding their benchmarks by more than 50 percentage points [7][9] - The top-performing fund, Huaxia North Exchange Innovation Small and Medium Enterprises Selected Fund, managed by Gu Xin Feng, achieved a cumulative return of 194.13%, surpassing its benchmark by 175.89 percentage points [9][10] - The North Exchange theme funds have emerged as a significant area for excess returns, with several funds exceeding their benchmarks by over 60 percentage points [10] Group 4 - In response to the new policy, many fund companies are adjusting their performance benchmarks to better reflect the risk-return characteristics of their funds [11][12] - Recent adjustments include changes to benchmarks for various funds, such as the adjustment of the performance benchmark for the浦银安盛稳健增利债券 from "CSI All Bond Index" to a more complex composite benchmark [11][12] - The trend of benchmark adjustments is expected to continue as fund companies seek to align their performance metrics with regulatory expectations and improve their competitive positioning [13][14]