2026 年开局之际，全球投资者正加大对中国股市和人民币的押注力度。在全球不确定性上升的背景 下，这一举措标志着资金正更果断地转向中国资产。 从高盛集团到法国兴业银行旗下的伯恩斯坦研究公司，多家全球投资机构均上调了对这一全球第二大股 票市场的评级，理由是其估值具备吸引力、产业政策持续发力以及盈利前景向好。 在中国官方允许人民币汇率突破 1 美元兑 7 元这一关键关口后，市场参与者也在加码做多人民币，部分 机构预测人民币汇率年内有望升至 1 美元兑 6.25 元的高位。花旗集团、法国巴黎银行资产管理公司以 及美国银行等机构均对人民币持看多立场。 全球机构对中国资产的看涨声浪日益高涨，而这一背景是中国在去年实现了罕见的股汇双涨。这种良性 循环效应或进一步重塑市场对中国资产的信心。与此同时，全球第二大经济体的多个领域展现出超预期 韧性 —— 出口势头强劲、制造业活动持续回暖、银行体系保持稳定，这让市场开始期待，地产、消费 等此前表现滞后的板块或许也值得重新审视。 富兰克林邓普顿研究所投资策略师陈慧玲（克里斯蒂・陈）表示："人民币走强有助于提升以美元计价 的资产回报率，改善市场风险情绪，进而对股市形成支撑。同时，由企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since 2025 and signaling the start of a new monetary easing cycle globally [2][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Rate Cut - The rate cut is primarily due to the persistent weakness in the U.S. labor market since May, reflecting a "preventive rate cut" characteristic as the Fed seeks to balance deteriorating employment and inflation pressures [5][6]. - The August non-farm payroll data showed only 22,000 new jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a sharp decline in job growth [5][6]. Group 2: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a possibility of two more rate cuts before the end of the year, with the Fed's dot plot indicating potential cuts in October and December, each by 25 basis points [7][10]. - The uncertainty surrounding inflation trends may complicate the rate cut process in the following year [7]. Group 3: Impact on China - The Fed's rate cut expands the space for monetary policy adjustments in China, indirectly affecting the Chinese stock and real estate markets through domestic macro policy changes [5][12]. - The potential for a passive appreciation of the RMB is noted, as the Fed's actions may reduce the extent of the U.S.-China interest rate differential [12][17]. Group 4: Global Market Implications - The rate cut is expected to support U.S. equities by reducing corporate financing costs, although the immediate impact may be limited due to prior market expectations [11][12]. - The global bond market is likely to benefit from increased liquidity, although the domestic bond market in China may not see significant changes due to its focus on local economic factors [15][16]. Group 5: Gold Market Outlook - The Fed's rate cut is viewed positively for international gold prices, which have already risen approximately 40% this year, with expectations of continued upward pressure due to geopolitical risks and the future trajectory of the U.S. dollar [19][20]. Group 6: Monitoring Future Economic Indicators - Key indicators to watch include U.S. inflation trends and China's export performance, which may influence future policy decisions and potential new stimulus measures [20].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Bank of America highlights significant divergence in asset performance this year, with gold leading precious metals, a resurgence in the Chinese stock market, and U.S. equities at high levels but nearing bubble warning signs [1] Investment Strategy - Bank of America recommends a "three increases and two decreases" risk-averse investment strategy, suggesting investors increase holdings in European high-yield bonds and emerging market sovereign debt, which are expected to benefit from a shift towards looser monetary policy [1] - The report expresses optimism about the Chinese stock market, citing attractive valuations and a gradual inflow of capital [1] - Gold is identified as a key asset for hedging against geopolitical risks and potential depreciation of the U.S. dollar [1] Asset Recommendations - The report advises reducing exposure to U.S. technology stocks, particularly the "big tech" companies, due to their high valuations and associated risks [1] - Additionally, the outlook for the oil market is negative, with the report indicating that the supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to improve in the short term [1]

Global Macro Market - The market continues to speculate on the "East Rising, West Declining" narrative; US stock valuations are high, and the uncertainty brought by Trump's policies is expected to prevent US stocks from reaching new highs in the first half of 2025 [1] - Although the fundamentals of the Chinese economy have not yet reversed, the Chinese stock market is experiencing bullish momentum due to a series of policy enhancements and sustained expectation guidance, with Hong Kong stocks leading [1] - The foreign exchange market's volatility continues to reflect the pricing adjustments due to geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on country-specific interest rate differentials and marginal developments in relative liquidity [1] Chinese Futures Market - In financial products, multiple stock indices and short positions on government bonds show high macro certainty, with strong market price behavior alignment; currently, small-cap indices remain relatively strong, while large-cap indices have recently shown strong upward breakout signs, indicating a potential style switch [2] - In terms of commodities, particularly industrial products, excluding those affected by supply chain disruptions, the demand side continues to price according to macroeconomic fundamentals, reflected in the market where industrial categories (energy, chemicals, ferrous metals, etc.) show significant overall weakness [2]