Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to optimize its supply-demand structure due to the "anti-involution" policy, which will lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity and improve the efficiency of resource, smelting, and demand linkages [1] - The demand side remains optimistic for long-term growth in sectors such as new energy, which will boost the medium to long-term demand growth for non-ferrous metals [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed a work plan to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, promoting structural adjustments, optimizing supply, eliminating backward production capacity, and encouraging green low-carbon technological innovation [1] Group 2 - The industrial metal sector is expected to see improved industry dynamics through capacity optimization and demand stimulation, which may lead to stabilization and recovery of metal prices, enhancing the profitability of companies with high-quality production capacity [1] - The non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index (930708), which reflects the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal industry in the Chinese A-share market, covering various metal resources such as copper, aluminum, and lead-zinc [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Overall Futures Market**: As of August 5th, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Coal and some other commodities rose, while lithium carbonate and others declined. In the stock index futures, all major contracts rose, and in the bond futures, most contracts also showed an upward trend [4]. - **Copper**: The US non - farm payroll data increased the expectation of a September interest rate cut, but there is still uncertainty in the macro - situation. The domestic copper fundamentals are in a loose state, but the low inventory limits the downside. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with attention on the support at 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply reduction expectation has not affected the actual production yet. The market sentiment is cooling. If the supply reduction news is false, the market may weaken further, but the optimistic downstream production plan provides some support [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Entering the seasonal travel peak, the US crude oil inventory is low, but there are concerns about supply and demand. With the OPEC+ plan to increase production in September and concerns about the US economy, the oil price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease in August. The开工 rate is low, and the inventory is at a low level. With the weakening cost support and the influence of policies, the asphalt price is expected to oscillate in the near term [11][12]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise开工 rates are at a low level. There are issues with exports and supply. With the falling oil price and high inventory, and the lack of actual policies, the PP price is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - **Plastic**: The开工 rate is at a neutral level, but the downstream demand is still weak. With the falling oil price, high inventory, and lack of actual policies, the plastic price is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. With the new production capacity and the slow improvement of the real - estate market, the PVC price is expected to decline slightly in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose sharply today. Although the fundamentals have no obvious changes, the market sentiment is strong. It is expected to correct after the sentiment cools down, but the downside space is limited [18]. - **Urea**: The price rose today. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is improving. The market is expected to return to fundamentals and oscillate, and the short - term rise can be treated as a rebound [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of August 5th, coal rose nearly 7%, polysilicon rose nearly 4%, and some other commodities also had varying degrees of increase. Lithium carbonate fell more than 2%, and some other commodities declined. In the stock index futures, all major contracts rose, and in the bond futures, most contracts also showed an upward trend [4]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:19 on August 5th, coal 2601, palm oil 2509, and polysilicon 2511 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, soda ash 2509, and soybean meal 2509 had capital outflows [4]. Core Views on Specific Commodities - **Copper**: The US non - farm payroll data increased the probability of a September interest rate cut. The domestic copper production increased in July, and the inventory is low. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is under pressure. The supply reduction expectation has not affected the actual production, and the market sentiment is cooling [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Entering the seasonal peak, there are concerns about supply and demand. With the OPEC+ plan to increase production in September and concerns about the US economy, the price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease in August. The开工 rate is low, and the inventory is at a low level. The cost support is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate [11][12]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise开工 rates are at a low level. There are issues with exports and supply. The price is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - **Plastic**: The开工 rate is at a neutral level, but the downstream demand is still weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to decline slightly, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose sharply. The fundamentals have no obvious changes, but the market sentiment is strong. It is expected to correct after the sentiment cools down, with limited downside space [18]. - **Urea**: The price rose. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is improving. The market is expected to return to fundamentals and oscillate [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term macro expectations are strong, and the continuous situation of billet exports should be monitored. The anti - involution drives the raw material positive feedback effect, and the market is regarded as fluctuating strongly [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On July 23, the overall upward trend of black commodity futures weakened, with coking coal leading the rise and hitting the daily limit. The closing price of rebar was 3274 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; the closing price of hot - rolled coil was 3438 yuan/ton, up 0.20%; the closing price of iron ore was 812 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke continued to rise sharply, and coking coal hit the daily limit [1] Market Analysis Macro Aspect - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials. On July 19, the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River started, which may set a record in investment scale, igniting the financial market's bullish sentiment and bringing imagination space for steel demand expansion [1] Supply Aspect - From July 14 to July 20, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons, reaching a three - week high. Australian shipments decreased by 1.089 million tons to 16.294 million tons, Brazilian shipments increased by 1.021 million tons to 9.226 million tons, and non - mainstream region shipments rose by more than 30%. Due to the previous decline in shipments, the arrival volume of overseas iron ore in Chinese ports decreased significantly, with the arrival volume at 47 ports being 25.118 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.714 million tons. Currently, the supply pressure of iron ore is not significant [1] Demand Aspect - High profits of steel mills drive the increase of molten iron production in the off - season. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43% and a year - on - year increase of 28.14%. The average daily molten iron production was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 27,900 tons. The better - than - expected recovery of molten iron production indicates good demand for iron ore, which may have a positive impact on the market [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Monitor supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Monitor the stable - after - decline oscillating market and the strength relationship between the two [1]

Group 1: Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the main PVC contract was 5,260 yuan/ton (+142), the East China basis was -200 yuan/ton (-82), and the South China basis was -160 yuan/ton (-42) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 5,060 yuan/ton (+60), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 5,100 yuan/ton (+100) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 535 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 112 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was -315 yuan/ton (+130), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was -595 yuan/ton (+26), and the PVC export profit was -13.8 US dollars/ton (-9.0) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 36.8 tons (-1.4), the social PVC inventory was 41.1 tons (+1.8), the operating rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 77.52% (+0.59%), the operating rate of the PVC ethylene method was 68.31% (-1.92%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 74.97% (-0.10%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 69.6 tons (+0.6) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,658 yuan/ton (+89), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was -64 yuan/ton (-89) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,340 yuan/ton (-30) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 459.5 yuan/ton (-120.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 557.53 yuan/ton (+50.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,448.33 yuan/ton (+30.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 38.39 tons (+0.96), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.40 tons (+0.04), and the operating rate of caustic soda was 82.60% (+2.20%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operating rate of alumina was 83.61% (+0.33%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 58.89% (+0.00%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 84.55% (+6.75%) [2] Group 2: Market Analysis PVC - Policy impact: The upcoming release of the steady - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials has boosted the PVC market sentiment. The proportion of PVC production devices with a production time of more than 20 years is about 12%, which has led to market expectations of eliminating old - fashioned production capacity [3] - Fundamental analysis: The upstream operation has slightly declined but remains at a high level. There are expectations of new production capacity coming on stream from July to August, so the supply - side pressure is high. The domestic demand of downstream industries remains weak, the operating rate of downstream products has continued to decline month - on - month and is lower than the same period last year; the short - term export situation is neutral. The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value is high. The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC are still weak, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [3] Caustic Soda - Policy impact: The evaluation of old - fashioned devices in the petrochemical and chemical industries has led to expectations that caustic soda devices that have reached the designed service life or have been in operation for more than 20 years may gradually withdraw from the market, which has significantly boosted market sentiment. Coupled with the further weakening of the liquid chlorine price, the caustic soda futures price has risen significantly [3] - Fundamental analysis: On the supply side, there are few new overhauls upstream, and some chlor - alkali devices that previously reduced production due to poor liquid chlorine sales have gradually increased their loads. The overall operating rate has increased month - on - month, and there are still expectations of new production coming on stream from July to August. On the demand side, the profit of the main downstream alumina industry has expanded, the operation has continued to pick up, and the amount of liquid caustic soda supplied to the main downstream has increased. There is still short - term rigid demand support; non - aluminum demand continues to be weak in the off - season. The factory inventory of caustic soda has increased month - on - month, and the inventory is higher than the same period. With the increase in the load of chlor - alkali production reduction enterprises, the inventory pressure is expected to increase [3] Group 3: Strategies PVC - Single - side strategy: Cautiously go long for hedging; due to the boost of macro - sentiment, the futures price is expected to continue to rise in the short term [4] - Inter - delivery strategy: Do reverse spreads when the V09 - 01 spread is high [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side strategy: Cautiously go long for hedging; with the further weakening of liquid chlorine, the cost support for caustic soda has strengthened. In the short term, the futures price is driven by the expectation of eliminating old - fashioned production capacity, and the macro - sentiment is boosted. The caustic soda futures price is expected to continue to be strong [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The PVC market has seen a significant rise in the futures market due to the boost in macro - sentiment, but its fundamentals remain weak with high supply pressure, weak domestic demand, and increasing inventory. The policy's impact on the PVC capacity structure is expected to be limited [3]. - The caustic soda futures price has risen significantly due to the assessment of old petrochemical and chemical industry equipment and the weakening of liquid chlorine prices. However, the inventory pressure is expected to increase, and the policy's impact on the capacity structure may be limited [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5,118 yuan/ton (+181), the East China basis is - 118 yuan/ton (-31), and the South China basis is - 118 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5,000 yuan/ton (+150), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5,000 yuan/ton (+180) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 535 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+5), the calcium carbide profit is 112 yuan/ton (+5), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 315 yuan/ton (+130), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 595 yuan/ton (+26), and the PVC export profit is - 4.8 dollars/ton (+0.4) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory is 36.8 tons (-1.4), the social PVC inventory is 41.1 tons (+1.8), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 77.52% (+0.59%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 68.31% (-1.92%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 74.97% (-0.10%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (+0.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,569 yuan/ton (+100), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 25 yuan/ton (-131) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,370 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,603 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 579.5 yuan/ton (-111.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 507.53 yuan/ton (+81.75), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,418.33 yuan/ton (+80.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.39 tons (+0.96), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.40 tons (+0.04), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.60% (+2.20%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate is 83.61% (+0.33%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 58.89% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.55% (+6.75%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The release of the ten - key industry stable growth work plan has boosted the macro - sentiment, leading to a significant rise in the PVC futures market. However, the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The supply pressure is high, domestic demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The policy's impact on the capacity structure is expected to be limited [3]. Caustic Soda - The assessment of old petrochemical and chemical industry equipment and the weakening of liquid chlorine prices have boosted the caustic soda futures price. The supply is increasing, the demand from the main downstream is rising, but the non - aluminum demand is weak. The inventory pressure is expected to increase, and the policy's impact on the capacity structure may be limited [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Neutral; in the short term, PVC may fluctuate strongly due to the boost in macro - sentiment. - Inter - delivery spread: Go for reverse arbitrage when the V09 - 01 spread is high [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Neutral; the cost support of caustic soda is strengthening due to the further weakening of liquid chlorine. The short - term futures market is trading on the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, but the actual impact on the capacity structure may be limited [5].

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see an optimization in its industrial structure due to the upcoming growth stabilization work plan, which will promote the optimization of supply-side capacity for metals like copper and aluminum, eliminate outdated capacity, and enhance the efficiency of resource, smelting, and demand linkages [1] - Copper prices are anticipated to rise in the medium term due to rigid supply, low inventory levels, and a weakening dollar, while aluminum prices may also see significant elasticity due to supply rigidity and global low inventory levels [1] - The long-term outlook for gold is positive due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties overseas and a weakening dollar, which highlights gold's safe-haven attributes [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which is compiled by the China Securities Index Company and reflects the overall performance of representative listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including copper, aluminum, and lead-zinc [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF Initiated Link A (013218) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF Initiated Link C (013219) [1]