Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is expected to enter a comprehensive bull market, driven by macroeconomic factors and fundamental demand recovery [1] - Industrial metals are anticipated to see significant price increases due to unexpected disruptions in major mines, a recovery in traditional demand from global interest rate cuts, and rising demand from new energy and AI [1] - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are expected to experience improved supply-demand dynamics, with lithium's oversupply concerns alleviating and cobalt prices rising due to export bans [1] - Precious metals are projected to maintain a long-term bullish trend as the dollar's credit system undergoes restructuring amid ongoing monetary expansion and weakened fiscal discipline [1] Group 2 - The Non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the China Non-ferrous Index (930708), which includes companies involved in the extraction, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, covering sectors like copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [2] - The index represents various aspects of China's non-ferrous metal industry, combining cyclical and some consumption attributes [2]

Group 1: Industrial Metals - The report from Zhongtai Securities is optimistic about a comprehensive bull market in the non-ferrous sector, particularly in industrial metals like copper and aluminum [1] - Significant disruptions in major mines have led to a notable downward revision of global copper mine output for next year, while supply disturbances in electrolytic aluminum are also frequent due to overseas power shortages [1] - Traditional demand is expected to recover due to a global easing cycle, and although the growth rate of new energy demand is slowing, its proportion continues to rise, with AI-driven electricity demand also anticipated to provide incremental support [1] - Industrial metals are expected to experience a resonance of macroeconomic and fundamental factors, with a bullish outlook on copper and aluminum prices [1] - Despite stock prices being at new highs, valuations remain at a neutral to low level, primarily driven by rising commodity prices and the realization of company growth potential [1] Group 2: Energy Metals - The demand forecast for energy metals, particularly lithium carbonate, has significantly improved, shifting from an initial surplus expectation to a more balanced supply-demand scenario for next year [1] - The implementation of an export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to a substantial increase in cobalt prices, with supply constraints expected to tighten the market and maintain a bullish price outlook [1] Group 3: Precious Metals - The backdrop of overseas monetary expansion and weakening fiscal discipline is reshaping the dollar credit system, maintaining the long-term bullish logic for gold prices [1] - The performance of gold-related stocks has lagged behind the continuously rising gold prices, with current stock valuations at historical lows, presenting a favorable opportunity for investment [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares opened lower with all three major indices declining: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.07%, and ChiNext Index down 0.13% [1] Group 2: Lithium Market Insights - CITIC Securities indicates a shift from supply pressure to demand-driven dynamics in lithium carbonate, with a monthly supply of approximately 115,000 tons and a demand of 128,000 tons in November, resulting in a shortage of about 13,000 tons [2] - The ongoing strong demand for energy storage is expected to lead to a price increase across the lithium battery supply chain, with a structural shortage anticipated in 2026 despite a slight surplus forecasted [2] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Outlook - Zhongtai Securities expresses optimism for a comprehensive bull market in the non-ferrous sector, highlighting that disruptions in major mines are likely to significantly reduce global copper supply next year [3] - The demand for industrial metals is expected to benefit from a global interest rate cut cycle, with both traditional and new energy demands contributing to price increases for copper and aluminum [3] - The outlook for energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, is positive due to improved supply-demand dynamics and price expectations following supply constraints [3] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, driven by the weakening of the dollar credit system and historical low valuations for related stocks, presenting a favorable investment opportunity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities expresses optimism about a comprehensive bull market in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by macroeconomic factors and fundamental demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Industrial Metals - Several major mines have experienced unexpected disruptions, leading to a significant downward revision of global copper mine output for next year [1] - Anticipated electricity shortages abroad are causing frequent supply disruptions in electrolytic aluminum, while traditional demand is expected to recover due to a global easing cycle [1] - Although the growth rate of new energy demand is slowing, its proportion continues to rise, and the power demand driven by AI is expected to provide additional increments [1] - Industrial metals are poised for a moment of resonance between macroeconomic and fundamental factors, with expectations for sustained price increases in copper and aluminum [1] - Despite stock prices being at new highs, valuations remain at a neutral to low level, primarily due to rising commodity prices and the realization of company growth potential [1] Group 2: Energy Metals - The outlook for energy metals is improving as storage demand expectations continue to rise, significantly altering the supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate from previous surplus expectations [1] - Following the implementation of an export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, cobalt prices have surged, and supply constraints are expected to tighten the market next year, leading to bullish price expectations [1] Group 3: Precious Metals - In the context of overseas monetary expansion and weakening fiscal discipline, the restructuring of the dollar credit system is becoming a trend, maintaining the long-term bullish logic for gold prices [1] - The performance of stocks in the precious metals sector has lagged behind the continuously rising gold prices, with current stock valuations at historical lows, presenting a favorable opportunity for investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities is optimistic about a comprehensive bull market in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by macroeconomic and fundamental factors [1] Group 1: Industrial Metals - Several major mines have experienced unexpected disruptions, leading to a significant downward revision of global copper mine output for next year [1] - Supply disruptions in electrolytic aluminum are also frequent due to overseas electricity shortages, while traditional demand is expected to benefit from a global rate-cutting cycle [1] - Although the growth rate of new energy demand is slowing, its proportion continues to rise, and the demand from AI is expected to provide additional growth [1] - Copper and aluminum prices are anticipated to continue rising due to the resonance of macroeconomic and fundamental factors [1] - Despite stock prices being at new highs, this is primarily due to rising commodity prices and the realization of company growth potential, with valuations remaining at a neutral to low level [1] Group 2: Energy Metals - The outlook for energy metals is improving as expectations for energy storage demand continue to rise, significantly improving the supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate next year [1] - Following the implementation of an export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo, cobalt prices have surged, and with supply constraints expected next year, the market is likely to remain tight with bullish price expectations [1] Group 3: Gold Market - The trend of reshaping the dollar credit system is becoming evident against the backdrop of overseas monetary expansion and weakening fiscal discipline, maintaining the long-term bullish logic for gold prices [1] - The performance of gold stocks has significantly lagged behind the continuously rising gold prices, with current stock valuations at historical lows, presenting a favorable opportunity for investment [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gold industry [4][63]. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve has decided not to cut interest rates, leading to a decline in gold prices. The report emphasizes the need to monitor the geopolitical situation in the Middle East closely. In the medium to long term, persistent inflation in the U.S. suggests that the economy has entered a "stagflation-recession" phase, and the restructuring of the U.S. dollar credit system is becoming a trend, which may lead to a sustained increase in gold prices [4][63]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The precious metals sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.82 percentage points. The sector fell by 5.27% week-on-week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index and the Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index [4][14]. - As of June 20, the COMEX gold settlement price was $3,385.70 per ounce, down 1.94% week-on-week, while the COMEX silver settlement price was $36.02 per ounce, down 0.93% [4][13]. Economic Tracking - U.S. economic demand in May was below expectations, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48.5, lower than the forecast of 49.2. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [4][27]. - The U.S. May CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 2.5% [4][27]. Gold Investment Trends - As of May 2025, China's official gold reserves increased to 7,383 million ounces, marking the seventh consecutive month of increases. Additionally, gold ETF holdings rose by 11.51 tons to 1,388 tons [4][46][56]. - The current gold-silver ratio is 93.23, reflecting a decrease of 2.00 [4][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the gold industry, highlighting the potential for gold prices to rise amid ongoing inflation and geopolitical uncertainties [4][63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1][5][63] Core Views - The silver market is experiencing a rebound, while the gold-silver ratio is correcting from high levels. Short-term gold prices are expected to remain volatile due to underwhelming U.S. economic data and reduced safe-haven demand amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions. However, medium to long-term prospects remain positive as persistent inflation in the U.S. suggests a "stagflation-recession" phase, with gold prices likely to rise [5][63]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The precious metals sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.70 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 3.58%. The leading stock was Shengda Resources, which rose by 17.29% [5][17]. - As of June 6, COMEX gold settled at $3,346.60 per ounce, up 0.94%, and COMEX silver at $36.14 per ounce, up 9.42%. SHFE gold closed at ¥783.24 per gram, up 1.48%, and SHFE silver at ¥8,850 per kilogram, up 7.69% [5][16][17]. Economic Data Tracking - U.S. economic indicators for May were below expectations, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.5 (expected 49.2) and the non-manufacturing PMI at 49.9 (expected 52.0). The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [5][29][30]. - Inflation remains moderate, with April's CPI at 2.3%, below the expected 2.4%, and core CPI steady at 2.8% [5][29][30]. Gold Investment Trends - As of May 2025, China's official gold reserves increased to 7.383 million ounces, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth. Gold ETF holdings rose to 1,367.89 tons, a 2.11-ton increase [5][52][54]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased to 187,900 contracts, up from 174,200 contracts [5][57]. Gold-Silver Ratio - The gold-silver ratio as of June 6 is 92.30, down 6.78 from previous levels, indicating a potential correction in silver prices relative to gold [5][59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - Precious metals and industrial metals have shown strong performance, while energy metals are under pressure [1] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector in 2024 saw a 32% increase, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 115 percentage points [14] - In Q1 2025, the non-ferrous metal sector rose by 120%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 132 percentage points, with precious metals increasing by 255% and industrial metals by 133% [14] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 2,976.948 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 2,794.166 billion yuan [2] Precious Metals - In 2024, the average price of gold was 5,594 yuan per gram, a year-on-year increase of 242%, leading to a total revenue of 2,820 billion yuan and a net profit of 1,497.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 52% increase [18] - In Q1 2025, the average gold price reached 6,722 yuan per gram, up 37% year-on-year, with revenue of 818 billion yuan and a net profit of 473.1 billion yuan, marking a 47% increase [30] Copper - The average copper price in 2024 was 75,000 yuan per ton, a 103% increase year-on-year, with total revenue of 14,452 billion yuan and a net profit of 754.81 billion yuan, a 40% increase [34] - In Q1 2025, the copper price was 77,000 yuan per ton, up 11.4% year-on-year, with revenue of 3,357 billion yuan and a net profit of 233 billion yuan, a 50% increase [48] Aluminum - In 2024, the aluminum sector saw an average price of 20,000 yuan per ton, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, with total revenue of 4,207 billion yuan and a net profit of 410.28 billion yuan, a 27% increase [57] - In Q1 2025, the average aluminum price was 21,000 yuan per ton, with revenue of 1,032 billion yuan and a net profit of 109.75 billion yuan, a 29% increase [72] Lithium - The lithium sector faced significant challenges in 2024, with the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping by 65.1% year-on-year, leading to a revenue decline of 48% [77] - In Q1 2025, the lithium sector showed signs of recovery, with revenue of 126 billion yuan and a net profit of 464 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 159% [91] Rare Earth Permanent Magnets - In 2024, the rare earth sector experienced a decline, with total revenue of 600 billion yuan and a net profit of 121.1 billion yuan, a 67% decrease [101] - In Q1 2025, the sector showed recovery with revenue of 145 billion yuan and a net profit of 867 million yuan, a 221% increase year-on-year [130] Institutional Holdings - In Q1 2025, the allocation ratio for the non-ferrous metal sector was 434%, with significant increases in allocations for precious and industrial metals [141]

Group 1 - The gold sector experienced a slight adjustment, with the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) down 1.76% and trading volume exceeding 130 million yuan [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF closely tracks Shanghai Gold (SHAU.SGE) and has lower management and custody fees compared to similar products, with a management fee of 0.25% and a custody fee of 0.05% [1] - Short-term pressure on gold prices is attributed to the decline in interest rate expectations, while medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to high real yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries and a trend towards stagflation in the U.S. economy [1] Group 2 - Northeast Securities noted that the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate, with Chairman Powell emphasizing a wait-and-see approach, leading to a reduction in short-term rate cut expectations [2] - The market's reaction to the Fed's stance has resulted in upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, which in turn affects gold prices, although the overall outlook for gold remains favorable [2] - The similarities in gold price movements between this year and last year suggest a need for a cooling-off period after rapid trading adjustments, with a focus on patience and confidence in the medium-term bullish direction for gold prices due to stagflation risks and gradual interest rate declines [2]