能科科技发布半年报，2025 年H1 实现营收7.38 亿元（yoy+4.91%），归母净利1.11 亿元 （yoy+18.75%），扣非净利1.01 亿元（yoy+16.16%）。 其中Q2 实现营收4.01 亿元（yoy+33.99%，qoq+19.19%），归母净利6160.81 万元（yoy+64.64%， qoq+25.75%）。看好公司AI Agent 产品进入商业化加速阶段，或带动业绩加速放量，维持"买入"。 我们基本维持25-27 年EPS 分别为1.03/1.21/1.33 元的预测，我们看好25年AI Agent 商业化持续深入，带 动公司商业模式向产品化/云化继续转型，25 年营收有望加速增长。可比公司平均25E 55.7x PE，给予 公司25E 55.7xPE，上调目标价为57.37 元（前值46.77 元，对应24E 45.0x PE）。 风险提示：下游景气度不及预期；市场竞争加剧。 自研AI 产品业务快速增长驱动合同负债高增 公司依托"乐系列"工业软件和"灵系列"AI Agent 产品，在研发生产等环节实现智能化升级，推动AI 产 品收入成为主要增长引擎。公司围绕工业领域核心应用 ...

证券研究报告 能科科技 (603859 CH) 看好公司 AI Agent 产品商业化提速 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 | 27 日│中国内地 | 计算机应用 | 目标价(人民币): | 57.37 | 公司依托"乐系列"工业软件和"灵系列"AI Agent 产品，在研发生产等环 节实现智能化升级，推动 AI 产品收入成为主要增长引擎。公司围绕工业领 域核心应用场景，以可量化、高复用性、高价值场景为重点，加强市场的推 广力度。重点挖掘行业头部客户需求，引导和推动 AI 产品和解决方案的落 地，打造标杆案例，形成规模效应。目前公司部分 AI 产品在企业内、企业 间、行业间得到了很好的复用，在工业领域的落地取得显著进展，驱动公司 报告期内合同负债大幅增长，25 年 H1 公司合同负债 4.05 亿元，同比 +158.26%。作为工业 AI 领域龙头，看好公司 AI Agent 产品在工业领域的 落地，驱动公司业务加速增长。 持续加大 AI 产品研发投入，两大 AI ...

Industry Overview - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a digital transformation implementation plan for the machinery industry, aiming for 50% of enterprises to achieve a maturity level of smart manufacturing by 2027 [1] - The plan includes the establishment of at least 200 excellent smart factories and the cultivation of over 200 scenario-based solutions [1] - By 2030, the plan targets that large-scale enterprises in the machinery industry will complete digital transformation and establish over 500 excellent smart factories [1] - The focus is on breakthroughs in intelligent equipment technologies such as industrial mother machines and robots, as well as innovations in consumer and high-end equipment to support industrial upgrades [1] - The smart factory market surpassed 1 trillion yuan in 2022, with high penetration rates in industries like automotive, 3C electronics, and metal smelting [1] Company Developments - Nengke Technology continues to iterate its "Le Series" industrial software products and has launched the "Ling Series" AI agent products, forming a dual self-developed product system [2] - The AI agent products have achieved breakthrough growth in applications within industries such as robotics, automotive, and aerospace [2] - Zhongkong Technology has customized the most comprehensive and compatible robot hardware and software platform for industrial applications, successfully securing major contracts for smart inspection robots and AMR projects with Saudi Aramco [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [11][17]. Core Insights - The company is strategically positioned in the AI and military sectors, with a focus on enhancing its AI capabilities and product offerings. The recent employee stock ownership plan reflects management's confidence in the company's future growth [1][8]. - The company aims to achieve significant growth in AI-related revenues, with targets set for 30% growth in 2025, 70% in 2026, and 120% in 2027, aligning with its long-term AI strategy [3][4]. - The U.S. military's increasing budget for AI-related projects, projected to exceed $4.915 billion in FY 2026, presents a favorable environment for the company's growth in military applications [6][8]. Summary by Sections Employee Stock Ownership Plan - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan with a total funding of up to 10 million yuan, involving 9 senior management members and up to 66 other employees, aiming to enhance employee engagement and retention [1][2]. - The plan is designed to align the interests of employees, shareholders, and the company, fostering a culture of shared responsibility and long-term growth [2]. AI Business Growth Targets - The company has set ambitious growth targets for its AI business, with specific revenue growth rates incorporated into the employee stock ownership plan, indicating a strong commitment to its AI strategy [3][4]. - The AI revenue growth targets are part of a broader strategy to position the company as a leader in industrial AI solutions, with a focus on various sectors including heavy machinery and automotive [8][10]. Military and Defense Sector Opportunities - The report highlights the increasing investment by the U.S. military in AI technologies, with a focus on advanced research and development, which could benefit the company's military applications [6][8]. - The company's historical collaboration with state-owned enterprises in the defense sector positions it well to capitalize on these growing opportunities [10]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.725 billion yuan in 2025, with a steady growth trajectory leading to 2.321 billion yuan by 2027. Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.93 yuan in 2025 to 1.34 yuan in 2027 [11][12]. - The report anticipates a stable growth in the company's core business while exploring new avenues such as data assets and robotics services, indicating a robust outlook for future performance [11].

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that internal demand continues to show structural differentiation while external demand remains stable overall, with monetary policy focusing on improving the efficiency of fund utilization [1][7] - The ECI supply index is at 50.12%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.94%, up 0.01 percentage points [7] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q2 has been significantly revised upward due to the end of "import grabbing" behavior among wholesalers [1][8] Fixed Income - The report compares the holding structures and strategies of domestic and overseas innovation bonds, highlighting that domestic institutional investors prioritize liquidity, while overseas investors adopt more aggressive strategies [2][11] - U.S. institutional investors favor duration strategies, while Japanese investors prioritize both duration and coupon strategies, and European investors show a balanced approach across strategies [11][12] Company Analysis China Gas (00384.HK) - For the fiscal year 2024/25, the company reported total revenue of HKD 80.25 billion, a decrease of 1.96% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.09% to HKD 3.252 billion [4][14] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for FY2026-FY2027, with net profit estimates for FY2028 at HKD 3.477 billion, HKD 3.726 billion, and HKD 3.997 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, 7.2%, and 7.3% respectively [4][14] Small Commodity City (600415) - The company expects a net profit of RMB 1.63 to 1.70 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.6% to 17.4% [5][15] - The strong performance in import and export trade in Yiwu is a key driver for the company's market growth, with a reported 23.7% year-on-year increase in total import and export value [15] Nengke Technology (603859) - The company is positioned as a leader in industrial software and AI, with projected revenue growth of 21%, 20%, and 17% for 2025 to 2027, respectively [6] - The net profit forecast for the same period is expected to grow by 32%, 25%, and 24%, with a "buy" rating assigned [6]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8][66]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leader in industrial software and AI, focusing on digital transformation for industrial enterprises through its proprietary software and AI agent products [8][13]. - The company has seen rapid growth in its self-developed products, with revenue from its proprietary software increasing from 205 million yuan in 2022 to 458 million yuan in 2024, achieving a doubling in revenue [8][53]. - The company has successfully signed two major contracts worth over 100 million yuan each in 2024, marking significant breakthroughs in its AI business [8][62]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Established in December 2006 and listed in October 2016, the company serves over 3,000 clients in high-end equipment manufacturing, automotive, high-tech electronics, and general machinery [8][13]. 2. Product and Service Growth - The company has developed a series of proprietary industrial software products, known as the "Le Series," which includes 12 industry packages and 156 industrial components, enhancing its coverage across various manufacturing processes [8][50]. - The AI product line, "Ling Series," has been integrated into various applications, including robotics training, automotive design optimization, and AI quality inspection for high-end equipment [8][58]. 3. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue growth from 1.51 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.57 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 21%, 20%, and 17% [8][65]. - The projected net profit for the company is expected to rise from 191.73 million yuan in 2024 to 393.72 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 32%, 25%, and 24% respectively [8][66]. 4. Market Trends - The industrial software market in China is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to reach 531.2 billion yuan by 2027, driven by strong demand for digitalization and smart manufacturing [8][45]. - The global industrial AI software market is also expected to expand rapidly, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 35.97% from 2025 to 2030 [8][57].

Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 1.51 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.47%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 192 million, down 15.17% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on the development of its industrial software product matrix, with significant growth in AI business and a strong partner ecosystem for future growth [2][3] Revenue Breakdown - Cloud products and services generated a revenue of 458 million in 2024, up 6.68% year-on-year, with a comprehensive offering of 12 industry packages, 36 sub-applications, and 156 industrial components [2] - Software systems and services saw a revenue decline to 316 million in 2024, down 39.92% year-on-year, as the company integrated various software tools and systems to provide full-process system services [2] - Industrial engineering and electrical products and services achieved a revenue of 456 million in 2024, up 6.70% year-on-year, focusing on digital production lines and high-power frequency converter technology [2] AI Business Growth - The company launched the "Ling Series" AI agent product system, achieving a revenue of 273 million in 2024, a remarkable increase of 1255.99% year-on-year [3] - The company signed two major contracts worth over 100 million each in 2024, marking a significant breakthrough in its AI business [3] - The company is enhancing its collaboration with partners like Huawei to develop multi-scenario solutions, covering industries such as heavy equipment, automotive, high-tech electronics, and general machinery, serving over 3,000 clients [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.76 billion, 2.07 billion, and 2.34 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.6%, 17.3%, and 13.2% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.05, 1.22, and 1.41 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 7.47% in 2024, but faced a significant decline in net profit, indicating challenges in cost control and profitability despite revenue growth [1][4][7] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 1.51 billion, with a gross profit of 747 million and a gross margin of 49.46%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 192 million, a decrease of 15.17% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit fell by 22.10% to 167 million [1][4] - Operating cash flow reached 519 million, reflecting a significant increase of 64.87% year-on-year [6] Group 2: AI Products and Services - The company increased investment in AI products and services, achieving notable progress in applications such as robotics and high-end equipment AI quality inspection [4] - The "Ling Series" AI agent products were successfully applied across multiple industries, with two contracts worth over 100 million signed [4] - Despite revenue contributions from AI, net profit declined, indicating that the profitability of AI business has not yet been fully realized [4][7] Group 3: Industrial Software - The "Le Series" industrial software products underwent continuous upgrades, adding 12 industry packages, 36 sub-applications, and 156 industrial components [4] - The company faced intensified competition in the industrial software market, necessitating strategies to maintain a competitive edge [5][6] Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and R&D - The company deepened strategic partnerships with major players like Huawei and Siemens, enhancing its industry standing [6] - R&D investment amounted to 456 million, a decrease of 6.07% year-on-year, with R&D expenditure as a percentage of revenue falling by 4.22 percentage points to 30.19% [6] - The reduction in R&D investment raises concerns about future innovation capabilities and market competitiveness [6][7]