作者 | 宝珠 编辑 ｜ 江江 视觉 | 顾芗 城市中产喜欢在背包上炫耀Labubu，小镇青年喜欢在短视频里炫耀电动车。 是的，如果一辆电动车的解锁方式足够多，那就值得拿来炫耀：屁股一坐解锁，手机一贴解锁，尊贵 NFC卡解锁…… ，， 九号电动车 NFC卡解锁操作 车钥匙是什么？早就过时了。 电动四轮车能做到的，如今，电动两轮车都可以，包括硬科技含量最高的智能驾驶——即便人不在车 上，电动车也能自己滚着两个轮子，乖乖听指令开到终点。除此之外，这些电动车还能投屏导航、听音 乐、接电话…… 平时不骑电动车的人，看到这些不免会大吃一惊：电动车已经发展成这样了？ 如果多加注意，就会发现这些高级的、值得炫耀的电动车，大多来自同一个品牌： 九号 。 九号电动车测试从高处一跃而下，车身依旧可以保持平衡，继续行驶 一辆九号电动车是如此不同寻常，以至于它的车标也相当抢手。 小学生们喜欢它，和烟卡一样，九号车标是可以用来"拍"的，还可以用来交换游戏皮肤。 十八九岁的"混子们"更喜欢它。抠掉一个九号车标，"混子们"转头就能在网上卖二三十块钱，如果运气 好，抠到限量款，一下能赚上百元。 九号车主们曾经深受其扰，江苏新沂、安徽砀山的公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new national standard for electric bicycles, effective from September 1, 2023, imposes strict regulations on speed, weight, battery capacity, and overall dimensions, leading to a significant reshaping of the industry and creating both opportunities and challenges for various brands, particularly for Ninebot [6][10][20]. Summary by Sections Changes in Regulations - The new standard (GB 17761-2024) restricts the maximum design speed of electric bicycles to 25 km/h, with immediate disconnection of power for exceeding this limit [12][15]. - Additional regulations include strict limits on battery capacity, power, and vehicle weight, as well as requirements for smart connectivity features to meet safety standards [15]. Market Dynamics - Brands that previously relied on "over-standard" vehicles for growth will face significant adjustments, with the potential for a market reshuffle favoring those who can quickly adapt [10][20]. - Ninebot has seen a surge in demand for older models during the three-month transition period before the new regulations take full effect [12][16]. Financial Performance - Ninebot reported a total revenue of 11.742 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 76.14%, with net profit rising by 108.45% to 1.242 billion yuan [16]. - The electric two-wheeler segment generated 6.823 billion yuan, accounting for 58.1% of total revenue, with sales exceeding 2.3925 million units in the same period [16]. Challenges Ahead - Ninebot faces challenges in market penetration, particularly in lower-tier cities where its distribution network is less extensive compared to leading brands like Yadea [16]. - The new regulations may hinder Ninebot's competitive edge, especially regarding product modifications that have historically attracted customers [17][20]. Shareholder Actions - The company's actual controllers recently sold shares worth over 788 million yuan, raising concerns about the sustainability of its business model amid record financial performance [22][23]. - Previous investors have also reduced their stakes significantly, indicating potential doubts about the company's future prospects [23]. Consumer Sentiment - Customer complaints regarding after-sales service, warranty issues, and product quality have been rising, with over 4,000 complaints recorded [19]. - The new regulations will require Ninebot to balance personalized services with data privacy and security, adding another layer of complexity to its operations [19].

Group 1: New National Standard Impact - The new national standard for electric bicycles, effective from September 1, 2024, imposes strict limits on speed, weight, battery capacity, and overall dimensions, aiming to ensure safety and reduce the "motorization" of bicycles [1][4][7] - The standard represents a significant shift for the industry, with brands that previously relied on "over-standard" vehicles facing major adjustments, leading to a potential reshuffle in market competition [3][4] - Many consumers are purchasing older models before the new regulations take full effect, indicating a rush to acquire vehicles that may soon be phased out [4][7] Group 2: Company Performance and Challenges - Ninebot's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 11.742 billion yuan, a 76.14% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 108.45% to 1.242 billion yuan, driven by strong sales of electric two-wheelers [9][11] - Despite strong performance, Ninebot faces challenges such as limited distribution channels, particularly in lower-tier cities, which hampers its market penetration compared to leading brands like Yadea [9][10] - The company has received over 4,000 complaints related to after-sales service and product quality, highlighting ongoing issues that could affect customer satisfaction and brand reputation [12][13] Group 3: Market Position and Strategic Concerns - Ninebot has established itself as a leader in the high-end electric bicycle market, but the new regulations may diminish its competitive edge by enforcing stricter compliance and reducing the appeal of high-performance models [9][10][13] - The company has seen a significant reduction in shareholding by its core management, raising concerns about the sustainability of its business model and market trust, especially given its reliance on the electric two-wheeler segment [16][17] - The introduction of the new standard may lead to increased production costs, with uncertainty about whether these costs will be passed on to consumers or absorbed by dealers [1][16]

Group 1 - The market has a high expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, with the probability rising from 37% to over 80% after the release of the non-farm payroll data on August 1 [1] - The July non-farm employment data was significantly revised down, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 109,000, triggering recession warning signals [1] - The resignation of hawkish Federal Reserve member Adriana Kugler increases the political feasibility of rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The anticipated interest rate cut is expected to alleviate housing burdens and stimulate demand in the real estate, home appliance, and tool industries, with consumer spending in these sectors projected to grow in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 [2] - Companies in the tool sector, such as Xianfeng Holdings, Juxing Technology, and Chuangke Industrial, are closely linked to the U.S. real estate cycle, with rate cuts expected to boost sales data [2] - In the black and white goods sector, brands like TCL and Hisense are targeting the high-end market, while Haier is leveraging local manufacturing advantages to capture market share and improve overseas profit margins [2] Group 3 - In the two-wheeler sector, companies like Ninebot, Taotao, and Chunfeng are establishing overseas bases, effectively avoiding tariffs through production in countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Mexico [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the report is "Buy-A" with a target price of 76.50 CNY, maintaining the rating [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the company has shown impressive growth in revenue and net profit for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 61.5% and a net profit increase of 70.8% [1][2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product lines, particularly in electric two-wheelers and electric scooters, which are expected to drive future growth [4]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong brand recognition and technological leadership in the electric two-wheeler and scooter markets, which positions it well for future opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 66.3 billion CNY, with a net profit of 7.9 billion CNY, reflecting significant growth compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The gross profit margin improved by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by economies of scale and cost reductions [3]. - The net profit margin for Q2 was 11.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Business Segments - The electric two-wheeler segment generated 39.6 billion CNY in revenue, up 80.6% year-on-year, with strong sales driven by enhanced store layouts and new product development [2]. - The self-branded retail scooter revenue reached 9.3 billion CNY, a 27.6% increase year-on-year, benefiting from a recovery in the European market [2]. - The all-terrain vehicle segment saw revenue of 3.2 billion CNY, a 10.7% increase year-on-year, supported by European market demand [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its rapid revenue growth, with projected EPS of 27.32 CNY, 36.70 CNY, and 52.61 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][10]. - The report anticipates that the company will leverage its brand strength and channel advantages in the high-growth segments of lawn mowers and E-bikes [2][4].