2025 年 10 月 25 日 九号公司(689009.SH) 事件：九号公司公布 2025 年三季报。公司 2025 年前三季度实 现收入183.9亿元，YoY+68.6%；归母净利润17.9亿元，YoY+84.3%。 经折算，公司 Q3 单季度实现收入 66.5 亿元，YoY+56.8%；归母净 利润 5.5 亿元，YoY+45.9%。我们认为，九号电动两轮车增长强劲， 多品类快速增长，Q3 单季经营表现亮眼。 Q3 两轮车收入持续高增，滑板车和全地形车收入提速：分业务 来看，1）Q3 九号电动两轮车收入 44.5 亿元，YoY+71.8%，销量/ 均价 YoY+58.6%/+8.4%。公司持续加强门店布局，且电动摩托车 销量占比提升，带动两轮车业务量价齐升。2）Q3 公司自主品牌零 售滑板车收入 9.6 亿元， YoY+38.1%, 销 量 / 均 价 YoY+15.8%/+19.2%。我们推测主要受益于欧洲市场复苏，且公司 产品竞争力突出推动市场份额提升。3）Q3 公司全地形车收入 3.3 亿元，YoY+27.4%,销量/均价 YoY+27.7%/-0.2%。4）ToB 产品直营 收入 2.4 亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new national standard for electric bicycles, effective from September 1, 2023, imposes strict regulations on speed, weight, battery capacity, and overall dimensions, leading to a significant reshaping of the industry and creating both opportunities and challenges for various brands, particularly for Ninebot [6][10][20]. Summary by Sections Changes in Regulations - The new standard (GB 17761-2024) restricts the maximum design speed of electric bicycles to 25 km/h, with immediate disconnection of power for exceeding this limit [12][15]. - Additional regulations include strict limits on battery capacity, power, and vehicle weight, as well as requirements for smart connectivity features to meet safety standards [15]. Market Dynamics - Brands that previously relied on "over-standard" vehicles for growth will face significant adjustments, with the potential for a market reshuffle favoring those who can quickly adapt [10][20]. - Ninebot has seen a surge in demand for older models during the three-month transition period before the new regulations take full effect [12][16]. Financial Performance - Ninebot reported a total revenue of 11.742 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 76.14%, with net profit rising by 108.45% to 1.242 billion yuan [16]. - The electric two-wheeler segment generated 6.823 billion yuan, accounting for 58.1% of total revenue, with sales exceeding 2.3925 million units in the same period [16]. Challenges Ahead - Ninebot faces challenges in market penetration, particularly in lower-tier cities where its distribution network is less extensive compared to leading brands like Yadea [16]. - The new regulations may hinder Ninebot's competitive edge, especially regarding product modifications that have historically attracted customers [17][20]. Shareholder Actions - The company's actual controllers recently sold shares worth over 788 million yuan, raising concerns about the sustainability of its business model amid record financial performance [22][23]. - Previous investors have also reduced their stakes significantly, indicating potential doubts about the company's future prospects [23]. Consumer Sentiment - Customer complaints regarding after-sales service, warranty issues, and product quality have been rising, with over 4,000 complaints recorded [19]. - The new regulations will require Ninebot to balance personalized services with data privacy and security, adding another layer of complexity to its operations [19].

Group 1: New National Standard Impact - The new national standard for electric bicycles, effective from September 1, 2024, imposes strict limits on speed, weight, battery capacity, and overall dimensions, aiming to ensure safety and reduce the "motorization" of bicycles [1][4][7] - The standard represents a significant shift for the industry, with brands that previously relied on "over-standard" vehicles facing major adjustments, leading to a potential reshuffle in market competition [3][4] - Many consumers are purchasing older models before the new regulations take full effect, indicating a rush to acquire vehicles that may soon be phased out [4][7] Group 2: Company Performance and Challenges - Ninebot's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 11.742 billion yuan, a 76.14% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 108.45% to 1.242 billion yuan, driven by strong sales of electric two-wheelers [9][11] - Despite strong performance, Ninebot faces challenges such as limited distribution channels, particularly in lower-tier cities, which hampers its market penetration compared to leading brands like Yadea [9][10] - The company has received over 4,000 complaints related to after-sales service and product quality, highlighting ongoing issues that could affect customer satisfaction and brand reputation [12][13] Group 3: Market Position and Strategic Concerns - Ninebot has established itself as a leader in the high-end electric bicycle market, but the new regulations may diminish its competitive edge by enforcing stricter compliance and reducing the appeal of high-performance models [9][10][13] - The company has seen a significant reduction in shareholding by its core management, raising concerns about the sustainability of its business model and market trust, especially given its reliance on the electric two-wheeler segment [16][17] - The introduction of the new standard may lead to increased production costs, with uncertainty about whether these costs will be passed on to consumers or absorbed by dealers [1][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the entrepreneurial journey of Ninebot, founded by Gao Lufeng and Wang Ye, showcasing its evolution from a small startup in a basement to a major player in the smart mobility sector with a market value of 46 billion yuan, emphasizing innovation and strategic acquisitions as key drivers of success [4][5]. Group 1: Company Background - Ninebot was established in 2012, focusing on the development of smart balance vehicles, and has since expanded its product line to include electric scooters and robots [11][12]. - The founders, both graduates from Beihang University, leveraged their technical expertise and business acumen to create a company that has become a leader in the short-distance travel market [4][5][24]. Group 2: Key Milestones - In 2015, Ninebot made headlines by acquiring Segway, a pioneer in the balance vehicle market, which significantly enhanced its patent portfolio and market reach [13][14]. - Following the acquisition, Ninebot optimized production processes, reducing manufacturing costs by 60% and increasing product accessibility, leading to a market share exceeding 90% in certain European countries by 2016 [14][15]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Growth - Ninebot's entry into the electric two-wheeler market in 2019 was initially met with skepticism, but the company identified opportunities for innovation and differentiation, leading to significant sales growth [18][19]. - By 2025, Ninebot's electric two-wheeler sales exceeded 6.82 billion yuan, accounting for 58% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth rate of 101.6% [20][21]. Group 4: Future Aspirations - Despite the rapid growth in the electric vehicle segment, the founders maintain a long-term vision centered on robotics, aiming to develop advanced service robots and expand into new markets [22][23]. - Ninebot has diversified its product lines to include seven categories, with a revenue of 11.742 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong market presence and ongoing innovation [25].

Core Insights - Ninebot Company reported impressive financial results for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 11.742 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.14%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.242 billion yuan, up 108.45% [1] - The smart electric two-wheeler segment has emerged as the growth engine for Ninebot, generating revenue of 6.823 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 101.7% [1] - Ninebot's electric two-wheelers achieved sales of 2.39 million units in China during the first half of the year, marking a 99.5% increase year-on-year, making it the fastest-growing brand in the industry [1] Industry Evolution - The rise of smart electric two-wheelers, represented by Ninebot, marks a significant turning point in the industry, shifting competition from price to product and brand strength [2] - The transition from basic transportation to interactive smart terminals signifies a major evolution in user perception and demand, akin to the "iPhone moment" in technology [2] - Companies are now required to innovate and adopt user-centric thinking, moving beyond mere imitation of smart features to fostering a culture of innovation [2][3] User Experience and Service Focus - The second half of the competition will emphasize user experience and service, reflecting a deeper understanding of emotional needs beyond functional requirements [4] - Ninebot has established comprehensive service centers in major cities, aiming to provide professional and convenient service experiences, thus elevating after-sales service standards [4] - The launch of the "Safe Driving 99" training program and the establishment of the Ninebot Safe Driving Academy represent a commitment to enhancing user safety and driving skills [4][5] Long-term User-Centric Approach - Ninebot's recent initiatives serve as a model for the electric two-wheeler industry, emphasizing that user-centric thinking should be a long-term commitment throughout the product lifecycle [6] - Brands that can genuinely empathize with users and integrate smart technology will likely lead the market and drive industry development in the future [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the report is "Buy-A" with a target price of 76.50 CNY, maintaining the rating [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the company has shown impressive growth in revenue and net profit for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 61.5% and a net profit increase of 70.8% [1][2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product lines, particularly in electric two-wheelers and electric scooters, which are expected to drive future growth [4]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong brand recognition and technological leadership in the electric two-wheeler and scooter markets, which positions it well for future opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 66.3 billion CNY, with a net profit of 7.9 billion CNY, reflecting significant growth compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The gross profit margin improved by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by economies of scale and cost reductions [3]. - The net profit margin for Q2 was 11.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Business Segments - The electric two-wheeler segment generated 39.6 billion CNY in revenue, up 80.6% year-on-year, with strong sales driven by enhanced store layouts and new product development [2]. - The self-branded retail scooter revenue reached 9.3 billion CNY, a 27.6% increase year-on-year, benefiting from a recovery in the European market [2]. - The all-terrain vehicle segment saw revenue of 3.2 billion CNY, a 10.7% increase year-on-year, supported by European market demand [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its rapid revenue growth, with projected EPS of 27.32 CNY, 36.70 CNY, and 52.61 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][10]. - The report anticipates that the company will leverage its brand strength and channel advantages in the high-growth segments of lawn mowers and E-bikes [2][4].

Core Insights - Ninebot has established itself as a leader in the short-distance transportation and service robot industry, showcasing its latest electric vehicles and smart products at the third Chain Expo [1] - The company has achieved remarkable sales growth, with approximately 1 million units sold in China in Q1 2023, representing a 141% year-on-year increase, and a cumulative shipment of 7 million units by May 2023, making it the fastest brand to reach this milestone [3] Group 1 - Ninebot's electric two-wheelers are recognized for their core advantages in "intelligence" and "safety," which have been pivotal in their market success [3] - The company's battery technology is a key competitive advantage, with a self-developed Battery Management System (BMS) that monitors battery data 24/7, providing over 20 safety protections including fault warnings and overcharge protection [3] - The integration of a cloud-based system with the BMS allows for real-time battery status monitoring and risk alerts, enhancing user safety [3] Group 2 - Ninebot has innovated in smart technology by developing a compact Electronic Control Unit (ECU) in collaboration with leading IoT companies, which enhances the performance and user experience of their electric two-wheelers [3] - The introduction of a self-developed LCD color display has transformed the user interface, offering features such as navigation, call notifications, and weather updates, significantly improving the riding experience [4] - The company's strong R&D capabilities and deep collaboration with the supply chain have positioned Ninebot to continue leading the industry with its focus on smart and safe electric vehicles [4]

Core Insights - The third "Chain Expo" showcased the popularity of Ninebot's electric two-wheelers, with attendees expressing strong interest in the company's smart and safety technologies [1][3] - Ninebot has achieved significant production milestones, with the 8 millionth smart electric two-wheeler rolling off the production line just 60 days after reaching 7 million units, indicating a production rate of 1 million units every two months [3] Product Features - Ninebot's electric vehicles feature IPX7 waterproof lithium batteries, allowing them to be submerged in 1 meter of water for 30 minutes without damage, a rarity in the industry [1] - The company has developed a proprietary BMS 6.0 battery management system that includes over 30 protection measures and more than 20 safety technologies to ensure battery safety [1] - The introduction of a seat cushion sensing technology prevents accidental acceleration, particularly beneficial for families with children [3] - Automatic light-sensing headlights adjust brightness based on ambient light, enhancing safety during nighttime rides [3] - The SOS emergency call feature automatically sends a distress message and vehicle location to emergency contacts in the event of a serious accident [3] Industry Position - Ninebot leads the industry in an intelligent scoring system, achieving a score of 810 in the 2024 evaluation by Lu Master, maintaining its position as the top performer for four consecutive years [4]