双贲驭险,中期伏波 -- 申万宏源 2026 年全球资产配置投资策略 展望 2026 年, 全球资产配置环境或从美联储预防式降息, 逐步过渡至财政 与货币政策双宽松驱动的再通胀周期，密切关注年内流动性拐点对资产轮 动的影响。国内大类资产逻辑也有望逐步从流动性宽松推动转向基本面趋 势准动。 | 指数 涨跌 (%) | | --- | | 名称 | | ┣证指数 3972 -0.46 3.45 -1.16 | | 深证综指 2512 0.01 4.79 -0.7 | | 风格指数 (%) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 -0.65 | 1.69 | 18.16 | | 中盘指数 --0.32 -- | 2.64 | 27.58 | | 小盘指数 | 5.26 | 25.08 | | 涨幅居前 行业(%) | FEE | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海川 | 6.47 | 18.46 | 24.24 | | 焦炭Ⅱ | 6.2 | 26.46 | 57.21 | | 地面兵装II | 6.05 | 4.27 | 47.35 | ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's defense equipment construction is entering a new cycle driven by both "steady growth in domestic demand" and "release of external potential" [15] - The global asset allocation environment is expected to transition from preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to a re-inflation cycle driven by both fiscal and monetary policy easing [8][10] - The manufacturing industry is anticipated to experience a structural recovery, with a focus on cyclical assets as economic demand stabilizes and PPI (Producer Price Index) begins to rise [10][11] Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The report outlines three major trading themes for 2025, including the breaking of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, the impact of a weak dollar, and the tightening of liquidity due to government shutdowns [8] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity turning points and their effects on asset rotation, suggesting a shift from liquidity-driven to fundamental-driven asset logic in China [8][10] - Tactical strategies for 2026 include balancing equity and bond allocations initially, then shifting to an overweight position in equities as inflation and corporate earnings recover [8][10] Group 2: Industry-Specific Investment Strategies - The defense and military industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a focus on modernization and technological advancements in military equipment [15] - The report identifies opportunities in the light manufacturing sector, particularly in global supply chain shifts and the competitive advantages of leading companies [15][16] - It suggests that cyclical assets, particularly in sectors like power equipment, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, will benefit from the anticipated recovery in PPI and economic demand [12][15] Group 3: Economic and Market Trends - The report predicts a stabilization in economic demand and a gradual recovery in PPI, which will influence market style factors and lead to a rotation from technology growth to cyclical assets [10][11] - It notes that the historical relationship between M1-M2 growth rates and A-share performance suggests a potential upturn in corporate profitability and stock market performance in 2026 [11][12] - The report also highlights the importance of government policies, such as the "Fifteen Five" plan, which emphasizes economic construction and modernization of industries [12][15]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 21.09 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.91 billion yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 8.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 690 million yuan, up 15.2% year-on-year [1] - The company's gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 18.8%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 9.0%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The high-end electric motorcycle brand SCOOX is set to launch, aiming to meet a broader range of user needs, with a global brand launch event scheduled for October 28, 2025, in Beijing [2] - The introduction of high-end electric motorcycle products is expected to expand the customer base and drive continuous growth in the company's two-wheeler business [2] - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 2.37 billion yuan, 2.75 billion yuan, and 3.18 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "strong buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.7 billion yuan in Q3, representing a year-on-year growth of 57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 550 million yuan, up 46% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 2.1 billion yuan, 2.8 billion yuan, and 3.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The report highlights significant growth in various product segments, including a 59% increase in two-wheeler sales and a doubling of revenue from lawnmowers [5]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 10.22 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1%, and is expected to reach 35.24 billion yuan by 2027, with a growth rate of 31% [2][12]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.83 yuan in 2023 to 5.18 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth outlook [2][13]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 78.5 in 2023 to 12.6 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [2][13]. Product Performance - The two-wheeler segment achieved sales of 1.49 million units in Q3, with revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, marking a 72% increase year-on-year [5]. - The lawnmower business continues to show strong growth, contributing 660 million yuan in revenue, up 36% year-on-year, with flagship products achieving double the average industry efficiency [5]. - The company is enhancing its brand presence through marketing initiatives, including a sci-fi short film that garnered over 74 million views on social media [5].

Group 1: Company Insights - 九号公司 - The company continues to see growth in two-wheeled vehicle sales, achieving a revenue of RMB 183.9 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 68.6% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of RMB 66.5 billion, up 56.8% year-on-year, with two-wheeled vehicle revenue at RMB 44.54 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 72% [1][2] - The average selling price of two-wheeled vehicles was RMB 2,996, showing a year-on-year increase of about 8% [1][2] - The company maintains a positive outlook on product synergy and has raised its store target, indicating optimistic growth prospects [2] Group 2: Company Insights - 亿纬锂能 - The company reported a revenue of RMB 168.3 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%, with energy storage and power battery shipments at 19.7 GWh and 13.1 GWh respectively [3][4] - The company maintains its annual shipment target of 130 GWh, with energy storage and power battery shipments expected to be approximately 80 GWh and 50 GWh respectively [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin for the company was 29.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.9 percentage points due to seasonal factors [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was RMB 5.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46%, while the net profit margin was 8.2%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] - The company expects an improvement in profitability in Q4 2025 due to price increases for batteries [4][7] Group 4: Industry Insights - Technology Sector - The technology sector is expected to receive increased policy support during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on high-level technological self-reliance and innovation [10][11] - Investment opportunities are anticipated in key areas such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor manufacturing, and new communication technologies [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in its electric two-wheeler segment, with revenue increasing by 68.6% year-on-year to reach 18.39 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025. The net profit attributable to the parent company also rose by 84.3% to 1.787 billion yuan [1][4] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory in the electric two-wheeler market, with a focus on expanding its product matrix and enhancing brand presence through new store openings [2] - The performance of the company's robotic lawn mower business is optimistic, with expectations for strong sales growth in 2025 and 2026 as the company enhances its product offerings and marketing efforts [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.8%, and a net profit of 546 million yuan, up 45.9% year-on-year. The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 29.9%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [1][4] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 20.727 billion yuan in 2025, 26.495 billion yuan in 2026, and 32.547 billion yuan in 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 46.0%, 27.8%, and 22.8% respectively [6] Product Segmentation - In Q3 2025, the revenue breakdown by product shows that electric two-wheelers generated 4.454 billion yuan, accounting for 67.0% of total revenue, with sales volume reaching 1.487 million units, a year-on-year increase of 58.8% [2] - The company is also expanding its new brand Segway electric motorcycles, which is expected to contribute positively to revenue growth in the coming years [2] Profitability and Efficiency - The company’s operating efficiency is improving, with inventory turnover days decreasing to approximately 36.7 days in the first three quarters of 2025. The net cash flow from operating activities was 4.840 billion yuan [4] - Profit forecasts indicate that the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 2.008 billion yuan in 2025, 2.589 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.210 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.4X, 18.1X, and 14.6X [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Aima Technology (603529) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears positive based on the performance metrics and growth outlook [1]. Core Insights - Aima Technology reported a revenue of 21.093 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.907 billion yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company launched a high-end electric motorcycle brand, SCOOX, which is expected to create a new growth curve. The brand has already gained significant interest from dealers, with 100% signing cooperation intentions during a recent meeting [3]. - The gross profit margin improved to 18.8% for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stable operational capabilities [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Aima Technology achieved a gross profit margin of 18.8%, with a net profit margin of 9.0% [4]. - The company expects to see a continued increase in average selling price (ASP) per vehicle due to product structure optimization and new national standards requiring higher quality materials [2]. - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.367 billion yuan, 2.720 billion yuan, and 3.194 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 12.0X, 10.4X, and 8.9X [4][6]. Operational Insights - The company experienced a slowdown in growth in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, attributed to the transition to new national standards, which may temporarily affect sales [2]. - Aima Technology's inventory turnover days increased to approximately 12.5 days, indicating a slight rise in inventory management time [4]. - The company has been actively engaging in offline user activities and product tasting events for the SCOOX brand in major cities, enhancing community integration and user experience [3].

Core Insights - The launch of the "Two-Wheeler Intelligent Technology Development Roadmap (2025-2035)" marks a significant step in advancing the intelligent technology in China's two-wheeler industry, which is the largest in the world in terms of production, sales, and ownership [4][6] Industry Overview - China has over 350 million electric bicycles in social circulation, indicating a massive market potential for intelligent technology integration [4] - The two-wheeler industry is undergoing a critical transformation driven by technological integration, market changes, and policy support [4] Challenges and Opportunities - The industry faces challenges in battery safety, riding safety, urban governance, and traffic coordination, necessitating a fundamental breakthrough through intelligent technology [4] - There is a need for a unified approach to integrate resources across the entire industry chain, including chips, sensors, algorithms, cloud platforms, and communication services [5] Standardization and Development - The roadmap aims to establish a unified intelligent technology and standard system, facilitating deep integration of key technologies and application scenarios [6] - The roadmap will provide clear guidance on key technology development priorities and implementation milestones for all industry participants, reducing blind investments and trial-and-error costs [6] Research Focus - The roadmap will focus on five key areas: overall intelligent architecture and safety systems, integrated perception and communication, intelligent control and driving assistance, cloud and human-machine interaction, and verification and common support [7] - The development cycle for the roadmap is set for nine months, with plans to release it to the industry by mid-2026 [7] Industry Collaboration - Nearly 50 industry units, including major two-wheeler manufacturers and key technology companies, are participating in the roadmap's development, indicating strong industry collaboration [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light industry and paper sector for Q3 2025, indicating a favorable investment rating [1]. Core Insights - The globalization of supply chains is accelerating changes in the packaging landscape, with leading companies increasing their market share and improving profitability [2]. - Q3 2025 is expected to see a divergence in performance among companies, influenced by supply chain advantages and growth potential [2]. - The report highlights specific companies with projected revenue and profit growth, indicating a robust performance in certain segments despite challenges in others [5][6]. Summary by Sections Packaging and Printing - Companies like Yutong Technology and Baosteel Packaging are expected to see slight revenue growth, while others like Meiyingsen may face revenue pressure but maintain profit growth [2][3]. - The overall packaging sector is benefiting from the global supply chain shift, with many companies reporting stable or improving profit margins [2][3]. Export Sector - Companies such as Jiangxin Home and Qianjiang Motorcycle are projected to experience significant revenue growth, with estimates of over 30% for Q3 2025 [6][7]. - The report notes that the export sector is showing resilience, with several companies adapting well to changing market conditions [6][7]. Two-Wheel and Motorcycle Sector - Companies like Aima Technology and Spring Wind Power are expected to report revenue growth of over 10% in Q3 2025, driven by seasonal demand and market adjustments [10][11]. - The sector is experiencing a mix of growth and challenges, with some companies facing declines due to regulatory changes [10][11]. Home Furnishing Sector - The report indicates that companies like Oppein Home and Kuka Home are facing revenue declines, while others like Joy Home are expected to show resilience with slight growth [12][14]. - The home furnishing market is under pressure from policy changes, but some segments are performing better than others [12][14]. Light Consumer Goods - Companies such as Dongkang Oral and Jeya are projected to see significant revenue and profit growth, with estimates indicating over 60% growth for Jeya in Q3 2025 [13][16]. - The light consumer goods sector is showing a positive trend, with several companies benefiting from strong demand and effective marketing strategies [13][16]. Paper Industry - The report anticipates a mixed performance in the paper sector, with some companies like Sun Paper expected to see profit declines due to price pressures, while others may experience stability [18][19]. - The paper industry is facing challenges from raw material price fluctuations, but certain segments are expected to maintain profitability [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights a significant increase in the sales volume of Ninebot's two-wheeler segment from 2020 to 2025, with strong brand momentum and improving profit margins [1] Sales Performance - Projected sales volumes for 2024 and the first half of 2025 are 2.6 million and 2.39 million units respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 77% and 100% [1] - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in the industry regarding sales performance [1] Profitability - Gross margins are anticipated to rise due to scale effects and product structure optimization, with expected margins of 21.1% and 23.7% for 2024 and the first half of 2025 respectively [1] - This positions the company favorably within the industry [1] Strategic Focus - Ninebot is concentrating on short-distance transportation and robotics, demonstrating high efficiency in R&D investment and commercialization [1] - The company's internationalization and diversification strategies are expected to ensure growth opportunities [1] Financial Forecast - The forecast for Ninebot's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected at 2 billion, 2.7 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan respectively [1] - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 23, 18, and 14 times for the respective years [1] - The rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1]