Core Viewpoint - Shanghai will continue to issue the "Le. Shanghai" service consumption vouchers in the second half of the year, aiming to expand the coverage and optimize the distribution model of the vouchers to further stimulate consumer demand [1] Summary by Category - **Total Amount of Vouchers**: A total of 500 million yuan will be issued in consumption vouchers [1] - **Breakdown of Vouchers**: The vouchers include 350 million yuan for dining, 30 million yuan for movies, 30 million yuan for cultural activities, 10 million yuan for sports, and 80 million yuan for tourism [1] - **Objective**: The initiative aims to enhance consumer spending and support various sectors affected by the economic environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, with a manageable pressure to meet the annual economic target, as stated by Zhang Jun, Chief Economist at China Galaxy Securities [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Predictions - Several international institutions have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, with Morgan Stanley and Barclays predicting nearly 5% growth, and ANZ forecasting 5.1% [1] - Domestic demand has become the main engine of economic growth, contributing 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% [4] Group 2: Advantages of China's Economy - China possesses four major advantages that drive its endogenous economic growth: a super-large market, a complete industrial system, technological innovation and talent dividends, and policy stability [2][3] - The super-large market advantage is supported by a consumption base of 1.4 billion people, which helps buffer external demand fluctuations [3] - The complete industrial system advantage allows for a highly coordinated supply chain, reducing production costs and enhancing risk resilience [3] - The technological innovation and talent advantage is characterized by a large pool of research talent and significant R&D investment, fostering breakthroughs in both basic and applied research [3] - Policy stability and institutional advantages enable the government to implement consistent policies that support economic transformation and structural reforms [3] Group 3: Consumption Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods (referred to as "社零") have become a key indicator of consumption trends, reflecting the shift towards a consumption-driven growth model [5] - In the first half of the year, retail sales grew by 5.0%, with significant growth in upgraded consumption categories such as home appliances and sports goods [5] - Service retail sales increased by 5.3%, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards services and quality [5] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Future policy goals should focus on promoting reasonable price recovery, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing macroeconomic policy adjustments [8] - Recommendations include maintaining stability in policies like "old-for-new" exchanges, increasing fiscal tools, and deepening supply-side structural reforms [8]

Economic Performance - In May, the economic growth rate is estimated to be around 5.5%, consistent with the previous month[11] - Demand improvement is primarily driven by consumption, while investment and exports show marginal slowdown[11] - The supply side shows marginal improvement mainly due to a recovery in service production[11] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and benefiting from holiday effects and consumption policies[13] - Policy-driven consumption categories, such as home appliances and communication equipment, showed significant growth rates of 53% and 33% respectively[17] - The optimization of the tax refund policy for outbound tourists led to a 116% increase in tax refund applications in the first month of implementation[20] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth for January to May is 3.7%, below expectations, with real estate investment declining by 10.7%[23] - Manufacturing investment growth in May was 8.5%, reflecting a marginal decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value[36] - Real estate sales area decreased by 3.62% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market[26] External Factors - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies continues to impact market sentiment and investment decisions[2] - If the 90-day tariff exemption ends without further negotiations, the tariff rate could rise to 54%, exacerbating external demand shocks[5] - The potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September could create new investment opportunities in the capital market[2]

Group 1: Consumption Growth in Central and Western Regions - The consumption growth momentum in central and western provinces is strong, with 11 out of 17 provinces showing retail sales growth above the national average in the first four months of the year [1][2] - Hubei and Henan provinces have retail sales growth rates of 7.7% and 7.2%, respectively, exceeding the national average by 3 percentage points and 2.5 percentage points [2][3] - Experts suggest that central regions should focus on regional collaboration, industry linkage, and policy innovation to transform consumption growth into lasting industrial competitiveness and regional influence [3] Group 2: Impact of "Two New" Policies - The "Two New" policies have significantly boosted sales in communication equipment, home appliances, and audio-visual products, contributing to retail sales growth [4] - As of May 31, 2025, the "Two New" policy has driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers [4][5] - In the first four months of the year, at least 16 provinces reported retail sales growth in communication equipment exceeding the national average, with some western provinces showing over 50% growth [4] Group 3: Sports and Cultural Events Driving Consumption - Retail sales of sports and entertainment products have seen significant growth, with some regions reporting increases over 25% in the first four months [6] - The sports industry has expanded from 2.9 trillion yuan in 2019 to 3.7 trillion yuan, driven by government support and youth consumer trends [6] - Events like the "Su Super" football league have boosted local economies, with a reported 14.63% increase in tourism spending during the Dragon Boat Festival [6][7]

Group 1: Service Consumption Recovery - Service consumption recovery is slower compared to goods consumption, with a per capita service consumption gap of 2,093 yuan (13.9%) compared to historical trends, while goods consumption gap is only 458 yuan (2.9%) and optional goods consumption gap is 450 yuan (6.2%) [3] - The increase in working hours has led to a reduction in leisure time, with average paid labor time increasing by 2 hours daily, resulting in a weekly average of 44.7 hours in 2023, which is 13.9 hours more than in 2018 [3][21] - The concentration of consumption during holidays is increasing, with holiday sales growth of 6.8% during the 2024 May Day holiday, compared to a mere 3.7% for the same month’s retail sales [26] Group 2: Supply Constraints in Service Consumption - Insufficient effective supply in the service sector is causing slower recovery compared to goods consumption, with service employment numbers falling 3.8% below historical trends in 2023 [4][35] - The core service prices have been rising since 2022, indicating tighter supply compared to core goods prices, which are recovering better [4][35] - The supply recovery in life services, particularly in education and entertainment, is lagging, with employment in these sectors down by 6% and 2.8% respectively compared to historical trends [5][40] Group 3: Causes of Supply Constraints - Weak entrepreneur confidence is a significant factor limiting service supply, with investment in life services not keeping pace with profit margins, as seen in the entertainment sector with a sales profit margin of only 1.1% [6][53] - The cost rates in life services are high, with education and resident services at 109.4% and 104.8% respectively, reflecting a 15% and 13% increase since 2019 [7][63] - The cash flow ratio for the entertainment sector has decreased to an average of 19.8% in 2023-2024, indicating increased cash flow pressure and limiting supply expansion willingness [7][63]