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关税已在美国通胀中体现了多少?——美国6月CPI数据点评
一瑜中的· 2025-07-17 04:59
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States, highlighting how tariff increases have contributed to inflationary pressures in recent months [2][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on CPI - The inflation effect of tariffs is evident in the June data, with notable increases in prices for furniture (1%), clothing (0.4%), and entertainment goods (0.8%) [3][8]. - It is estimated that tariffs have already been reflected in the CPI, with a potential impact of 14% if core goods prices remained at February levels, or 40% if they followed last year's declining trend [4][14]. - The overall effective tariff rate in the U.S. increased by approximately 8.3 percentage points from March to June, with the latest estimate suggesting it could rise to 17.3% [10][19]. Group 2: Remaining Tariff Effects - If the overall tariff rate reaches 17.3%, the remaining unreflected tariff impact on core goods prices could contribute an additional 0.5 to 0.54 percentage points to the overall CPI [19]. - Projections indicate that if the remaining tariff effects are realized gradually over the next three months, the CPI year-on-year could be 3.2% and 3.3% for the third and fourth quarters, respectively [19][29]. Group 3: June CPI Data Analysis - The June CPI rose to 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, while the core CPI increased to 2.9% [20][29]. - The breadth of CPI inflation has widened, with the proportion of items with year-on-year increases exceeding 2% rising from 40.8% to 44.1% [20][24]. - Core goods prices saw a significant increase, with the CPI for core goods rising from 0% to 0.2% month-on-month, driven by higher prices in imported goods [24][26]. Group 4: Market Reaction - Following the CPI report, market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly cooled, with the anticipated number of cuts decreasing from 1.93 to 1.76 [29]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.53% to 98.63, and the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased by 4.8 basis points to 4.481% [29].
美国6月CPI:关税传导效应显现,商品通胀抬头,核心PCE将何去何从?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 11:06
长期以来,市场期待的关税传导效应终于显现。六月,包括家电、服装及娱乐用品在内的核心商品价格出现上涨,这是自二月以来的首次增长。 美银强调,此次报告为关税成本向消费者转移提供了确凿证据。具体来看,家庭用品价格环比增长0.98%,创下自2022年1月以来的最大涨幅;服 装价格上涨0.43%;娱乐商品价格则上涨0.77%。与此同时,核心服务价格却呈现下降趋势,如酒店住宿与机票价格连续数月走低,反映出消费 需求的疲软。 巴克莱银行估计,美国的贸易加权有效关税率已达到14%至15%,远高于去年同期的2.5%,并预测约有50%的关税成本将最终反映在价格上,这 一预测与美联储的调查结果相吻合。 近期,关税的连锁反应逐渐浮出水面,为美国六月的消费者物价指数(CPI)数据增添了一抹复杂色彩。尽管表面数字显示增长略显疲态,但深 入剖析却揭示了数据背后的一系列关键结构性变迁。 六月份,核心CPI环比增长仅0.2%,这一数字略低于市场预期。然而,值得注意的是,核心商品价格出现了自二月以来的首次显著上扬,尤其是 家庭用品与服装等受关税直接影响的产品类别,价格攀升尤为明显。金融界的各大机构纷纷预测,核心个人消费支出平减指数(PCE)的表 ...
美国CPI前瞻:关税可能对6月核心CPI读数贡献约0.08个百分点
news flash· 2025-07-15 06:28
Core Insights - Most economists expect a significant jump in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June [1] - Goldman Sachs estimates that tariffs may contribute approximately 0.08 percentage points to the core CPI reading for June [1] - Specific categories potentially affected by tariffs include furniture, entertainment products, education-related items, communication devices, and personal care products [1]
【环球财经】消费回升难掩结构性疲弱 新加坡零售动能面临回落压力
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-05 04:06
Core Viewpoint - Singapore's retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and a month-on-month increase of 1.0% in May, marking one of the strongest monthly performances of the year, driven primarily by a rebound in automobile sales, although non-automotive retail remains weak [1][2]. Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - The increase in retail sales was largely attributed to a significant rebound in automobile sales, which rose by 10.4% year-on-year, supported by an increase in the Certificate of Entitlement (COE) quota [1]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales remained flat year-on-year in May, marking the lowest level since February, with a growth of only 0.8% in April [1]. - Non-essential consumer sectors are still experiencing declines, with clothing and footwear sales down 5.3% year-on-year, and department store sales down 3.9% [1]. Group 2: Monthly and Yearly Trends - The month-on-month growth of 1.0% in May was almost entirely driven by automobile sales; without this segment, overall retail sales would have declined by 0.6% [2]. - Year-to-date retail sales growth for the first five months of 2025 is at 1.0%, lower than the growth rates of 1.4% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2023, indicating a sluggish retail environment [2]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Factors - The employment market is under pressure, with only 2,400 net new jobs added in Q1 2025, significantly lower than the 7,700 jobs added in Q4 2024, and the unemployment rate increased from 1.9% to 2.1% [2][3]. - Consumer confidence is further impacted by a decrease in companies planning to raise wages, dropping to 21.2% from 21.7% [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The retail sector is expected to face growth challenges in the second half of the year, despite potential short-term boosts from government-issued vouchers aimed at stimulating domestic demand [3]. - Global policy risks, particularly the potential for unilateral tariffs from the U.S. on Singapore, could further strain the retail environment and consumer confidence [3].
关税通胀的担忧是否能够解除?——美国5月CPI数据点评
一瑜中的· 2025-06-12 15:52
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the potential impacts of tariffs on inflation, highlighting that the CPI has been consistently below market expectations for three consecutive months [2][10]. Group 1: CPI Trends - In May, the CPI year-on-year increased from 2.3% to 2.4%, which was below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.5%. The core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, also below the expected 2.9% [2][20]. - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.1%, lower than both the expected and previous values of 0.2%. The core CPI also increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% [2][20]. - The proportion of CPI items with a year-on-year increase exceeding 2% rose from 37.7% to 40.8%, indicating a widening inflation breadth [20]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The article identifies several factors that may have suppressed the impact of tariffs on inflation, including the suspension and reduction of reciprocal tariffs and micro-level tax avoidance measures [3][10]. - The effective tariff rate in April was only 7.07%, significantly lower than estimates of 13-20% from overseas institutions, suggesting that various avoidance strategies have mitigated the tariff impact [3][10]. - The first sale rule allows importers to calculate tariffs based on the initial sale price, which may further reduce the effective tariff burden [11]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Consumer Behavior - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the futures market pricing in an average of 1.97 rate cuts for the year, up from 1.73 [2][29]. - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with one-year and five-year inflation expectations remaining at their highest levels in 45 and 25 years, respectively [5][13]. - Despite concerns about price increases, a significant majority of retail executives plan to raise prices, indicating ongoing pressure for price transmission in the market [6][15].
中西部增速加快 东部结构升级增量提质释放消费潜力
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-06-10 19:27
Group 1: Consumption Growth in Central and Western Regions - The consumption growth momentum in central and western provinces is strong, with 11 out of 17 provinces showing retail sales growth above the national average in the first four months of the year [1][2] - Hubei and Henan provinces have retail sales growth rates of 7.7% and 7.2%, respectively, exceeding the national average by 3 percentage points and 2.5 percentage points [2][3] - Experts suggest that central regions should focus on regional collaboration, industry linkage, and policy innovation to transform consumption growth into lasting industrial competitiveness and regional influence [3] Group 2: Impact of "Two New" Policies - The "Two New" policies have significantly boosted sales in communication equipment, home appliances, and audio-visual products, contributing to retail sales growth [4] - As of May 31, 2025, the "Two New" policy has driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers [4][5] - In the first four months of the year, at least 16 provinces reported retail sales growth in communication equipment exceeding the national average, with some western provinces showing over 50% growth [4] Group 3: Sports and Cultural Events Driving Consumption - Retail sales of sports and entertainment products have seen significant growth, with some regions reporting increases over 25% in the first four months [6] - The sports industry has expanded from 2.9 trillion yuan in 2019 to 3.7 trillion yuan, driven by government support and youth consumer trends [6] - Events like the "Su Super" football league have boosted local economies, with a reported 14.63% increase in tourism spending during the Dragon Boat Festival [6][7]