Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The IEA has cumulatively revised down the crude oil demand increment by 350,000 barrels per day since the beginning of the year, with the latest monthly report projecting demand increments of 700,000 barrels per day for both 2025 and 2026 due to weak performance across major economies and low consumer confidence, particularly in emerging markets [1][11] - On the supply side, the IEA has raised the 2025 crude oil supply increment by 370,000 barrels per day and 620,000 barrels per day for 2026, driven by OPEC's accelerated easing of voluntary production cuts and growth in non-OPEC production, particularly from the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana [2][21] - Refining margins improved in July, reaching the highest level in the Atlantic Basin since Q1 2024, primarily due to an increase in diesel crack spreads, while gasoline crack spreads narrowed and Asian naphtha and fuel oil crack spreads fell to six-month lows [3][35] - Oil inventories have increased for five consecutive months, with a month-on-month increase of 900,000 barrels per day in June, reaching 7,836 million barrels, the highest level in 46 months, although still below the five-year average [4][39] Summary by Sections Demand Side - The IEA has revised down the crude oil demand increment by 350,000 barrels per day year-to-date, with a forecast of 700,000 barrels per day for both 2025 and 2026 due to general economic performance and low consumer confidence in emerging markets [1][11] - OECD countries, particularly Europe, have shown better-than-expected demand due to monetary easing and fiscal support, while non-OECD countries, especially China and Brazil, have seen a slowdown in demand growth [15][17] - In Q2 2025, demand from OECD Asia is expected to decline by 150,000 barrels per day, with Japan and South Korea experiencing significant drops [16] Supply Side - The IEA has adjusted the 2025 crude oil supply increment upwards by 370,000 barrels per day, with a further increase of 620,000 barrels per day for 2026, attributed to OPEC's easing of production cuts and growth in non-OPEC production [2][21] - OPEC+ production decreased by 250,000 barrels per day in July, with Saudi Arabia's production declining significantly, while UAE and Iran have increased their output [26][29] - Non-OPEC countries, particularly Brazil and Guyana, are expected to contribute significantly to supply growth, with Brazil's production reaching historical highs [32][34] Refining - Refining margins in July reached their highest level since Q1 2024, driven by rising diesel crack spreads, while gasoline crack spreads have narrowed [3][35] Inventory - Oil inventories have risen for five consecutive months, with a notable increase in June, primarily driven by inventory builds in China and the U.S. [4][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the weekly average prices of Brent/WTI crude oil futures were $71.6/$68.5 per barrel, up $2.8/$2.7 per barrel from last week. The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 7.94/7.7/0.24/0.69 million barrels respectively. US crude oil production was 13.31 million barrels per day, up 40,000 barrels per day week - on - week. The number of active US crude oil rigs was 410 this week, down 5 week - on - week, and the number of active US fracturing fleets was 168, down 1 week - on - week. US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.91 million barrels per day, down 30,000 barrels per day week - on - week, and the refinery crude oil utilization rate was 95.4%, down 0.1 pct week - on - week. US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.14/2.7/3.44 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +160,000/ - 1.16 million/+1.32 million barrels per day respectively [2]. - The weekly average prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $92/$101/$90 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of +$2.9/ - $2.0/ - $4.1 per barrel respectively. The price spreads with crude oil were $20/$30/$19 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of +$0.6/ - $4.3/ - $6.3 per barrel respectively. US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories were 2.3/1.1/0.4 billion barrels, with a week - on - week change of - 2.72/ + 3.64/ - 2.11 million barrels respectively. US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel production was 10.04/5.21/1.87 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +680,000/+130,000/ - 10,000 barrels per day respectively. US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel consumption was 9.15/3.61/2.09 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +190,000/+260,000/+410,000 barrels per day respectively. US gasoline imports, exports, and net exports were 120,000/890,000/770,000 barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 40,000/+170,000/+200,000 barrels per day respectively; US diesel imports, exports, and net exports were 230,000/1.31 million/1.09 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +110,000/ - 120,000/ - 230,000 barrels per day respectively; US jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports were 60,000/150,000/80,000 barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 90,000/ - 110,000/ - 30,000 barrels per day respectively [2]. - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corporation (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SH). Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China National Petroleum Corporation Engineering Co., Ltd. (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical Engineering Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - **Upstream Key Company Price Movements**: This section presents the price, price changes in the recent week, month, three - month, one - year periods, and year - to - date price changes of multiple upstream companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec, along with their market capitalization and valuation data [8]. - **Crude Oil Price**: The weekly average prices of Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO crude oils were $71.6, $68.5, $67.2, and $67.8 per barrel respectively, with week - on - week increases of $2.8, $2.7, $2.3, and $2.9 per barrel respectively. The LME copper spot price was $9,165 per ton, down $653.5 week - on - week, and the US dollar index was 100, up 2.6 week - on - week [8]. - **Crude Oil Inventory**: The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 7.94/7.7/0.24/0.69 million barrels respectively [2][8]. - **Crude Oil Production**: US crude oil production was 13.31 million barrels per day, up 40,000 barrels per day week - on - week. The number of US crude oil rigs was 410, down 5 week - on - week, and the number of US fracturing fleets was 168, down 1 week - on - week [2][8]. - **Refinery Data**: US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.91 million barrels per day, down 30,000 barrels per day week - on - week, and the refinery utilization rate was 95.4%, down 0.1 pct week - on - week. The utilization rate of Chinese local refineries was 51.0%, up 0.95 pct, and that of Chinese major refineries was 84.0%, up 0.05 pct [8]. - **Crude Oil Import and Export**: US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.14/2.7/3.44 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +160,000/ - 1.16 million/+1.32 million barrels per day respectively [2][8]. - **Product Oil Data**: It includes the price, price spread, inventory, production, consumption, and import/export data of product oils in the US, China, Europe, and Singapore [9]. - **Oilfield Services Data**: The weekly average daily rates of offshore jack - up drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms are provided [9]. 3.2 This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review - **Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance**: No specific performance data is provided in the given content, only the section title is mentioned [11]. - **Performance of Sector Listed Companies**: The price, market capitalization, and price changes in the recent week, month, three - month, one - year periods, and year - to - date price changes of multiple listed companies in the sector are presented, along with their valuation data [22][23]. 3.3 Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Crude Oil Price**: Analyzes the prices and price spreads of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oils, as well as the relationship between the US dollar index, copper price, and WTI crude oil price [28][30][40]. - **Crude Oil Inventory**: Discusses the relationship between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, the weekly drawdown rate of US commercial crude oil inventory and the change rate of Brent oil prices, and presents the data of US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory [43][44][53]. - **Crude Oil Supply**: Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets, as well as their relationship with oil prices [57][59][61]. - **Crude Oil Demand**: Presents US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery utilization rate, and the utilization rates of Chinese local and major refineries [65][69][72]. - **Crude Oil Import and Export**: Analyzes US crude oil imports, exports, net imports, and the import/export and net import data of crude oil and petroleum products [76][81]. 3.4 Product Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Product Oil Price**: Analyzes the relationship between international oil prices and domestic gasoline, diesel retail prices, and presents the prices and price spreads of product oils in different regions such as the US, China, Europe, and Singapore [87][114][120]. - **Product Oil Inventory**: Presents the inventory data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US and Singapore [127][131][137]. - **Product Oil Supply**: Presents the production data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US [143][145][146]. - **Product Oil Demand**: Presents the consumption data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US, as well as the number of US airport passenger screenings [149][150][156]. - **Product Oil Import and Export**: Analyzes the import/export and net export data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US [161][166][167]. 3.5 Oilfield Services Sector Data Tracking - Presents the average daily rates of jack - up drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the oilfield services industry [175][180].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated widely. Despite a slight recovery during the week, the decline at the beginning and end of the week led to the lowest level in nearly three weeks, with the weekly line recording two consecutive weeks of decline. Considering the current market situation, the long - term expectation of a loose supply side in the commodity attribute will continue to pressure oil prices. Even though inventories have slightly decreased recently, it is difficult to support oil prices due to the relatively pessimistic summer demand outlook. In terms of financial attributes, Powell remains cautious about interest rate cuts, and Trump's tariff policy may turn more aggressive, maintaining overall pressure. Politically, geopolitical situations around the world have not significantly cooled down, but the possibility of escalation is also relatively small, remaining volatile. Therefore, in the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum and may continue to fluctuate weakly if there are no significant changes in various factors [63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely. Although there was a slight rebound during the week, the decline at the weekend erased most of the gains. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate widely this week. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [485 - 525] yuan/barrel, mainly engage in short - spread operations within the range, and consider short - selling on rallies. However, due to geopolitical and other factors, the volatility may increase, so it is not advisable to chase the decline excessively [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices generally showed a wide - range fluctuating trend. During the week, they were affected by long - term interest rate cut expectations, tariff negotiation changes, and geopolitical situations, showing a slight recovery. However, at the weekend, most of the gains were given back, resulting in the lowest level in nearly three weeks, and the weekly line recorded two consecutive weeks of decline [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Tariff Policy**: Trump plans to set a new "reciprocal tariff rate" system before August 1, with tariff rates ranging from 15% to 50%. Some countries will face a maximum tariff of 50%, and Japan and some EU countries have reached a 15% tariff agreement. This indicates that the Trump administration's tariff policy is becoming more aggressive, which may lead to a more pessimistic market expectation for the results on August 1 [25]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectation**: The market has a high expectation of an interest rate cut in September, which may have an impact on oil prices [28]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: In the Middle East, the US - Hamas cease - fire negotiation has not made substantial progress, and France's plan to recognize Palestine may ease the situation. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the third round of talks did not achieve substantial results, and the relationship between Russia and other countries remains uncertain. Iran and the US will participate in a new round of nuclear negotiations, leaving some room for the Iranian nuclear issue [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is expected to maintain the current production increase plan at the meeting on Monday. Eight member countries will increase their total daily production by 548,000 barrels starting from August. Also, there are concerns about restricted Russian oil exports, which may alleviate the long - term expectation of a loose supply side to some extent [36]. - **Russian and Iranian Oil Exports**: Attention should be paid to the changes in Russian and Iranian oil exports, which may affect the global oil supply [37]. - **US Oil Production**: US oil production has slightly decreased [40]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Consumption Expectation**: The consumption expectation continues to cool down [43]. - **Manufacturing Industry**: The manufacturing industry remains in a contraction state, which may reduce the demand for oil [46]. - **Refined Oil Production**: The production of refined oil has slightly slowed down [51]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Crude Oil Inventory**: US crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending July 18, which provides limited support for oil prices under the long - term pressure of a loose supply side [53]. - **Gasoline Inventory**: The decline in US gasoline inventories in the week ending July 18 may support gasoline prices, which will be transmitted to the domestic refined oil market and support the performance of fuel cracking [57]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - In the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum. If there are no significant changes in various factors, they may continue to fluctuate weakly [63].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The report indicates a more relaxed fundamental outlook for the oil market, with adjustments in supply and demand forecasts from IEA, EIA, and OPEC for 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3] Supply Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply for 2025 to be 10,488.00, 10,434.42, and 10,410.62 million barrels per day respectively, showing increases from 2024 of +182.72, +154.73, and +175.68 million barrels per day [2][32] - For 2026, the supply predictions are 10,603.04, 10,513.81, and 10,505.26 million barrels per day, reflecting increases from 2025 of +115.04, +79.39, and +94.64 million barrels per day [2][32] - The average change in global oil supply for Q2 2025 is forecasted to be +70.56 million barrels per day, a significant increase from previous predictions [2][27] Demand Overview - Global oil demand predictions for 2025 are 10,376.27, 10,352.80, and 10,513.49 million barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, with year-on-year increases of +72.41, +78.67, and +129.49 million barrels per day [2][4] - For 2026, the demand forecasts are 10,450.19, 10,458.75, and 10,641.54 million barrels per day, indicating increases from 2025 of +73.92, +105.95, and +128.05 million barrels per day [2][4] Price Trends - As of July 2, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Urals crude prices are $69.11, $67.45, $62.59, and $65.49 per barrel respectively, with recent monthly changes of +6.93%, +7.89%, +3.54%, and 0.00% [9][10] - Year-to-date price changes show Brent crude at -8.98%, WTI at -7.77%, Russian ESPO at -13.01%, and Urals at -4.41% [9][10] Inventory Insights - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil inventory changes for 2025 to be +111.73, +81.62, and -102.87 million barrels per day respectively, with an average change of +30.16 million barrels per day [3][27] - For 2026, the inventory changes are forecasted at +152.85, +55.06, and -136.28 million barrels per day, averaging +23.88 million barrels per day [1][27] Related Companies - The report highlights several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) among others [4]

Group 1 - Brent crude oil experienced its largest daily increase since 2022, with a surge of 11.3%, reaching $78.5 per barrel, while WTI crude peaked at $74.63 per barrel [2][3] - Iran's oil production stands at 3.3 million barrels per day, with exports between 1.5 to 1.7 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 4% of global production [7] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, are expected to impact oil exports, potentially leading to sustained high oil prices [7][8] Group 2 - Experts recommend a cautious approach to trading, advising against short positions while awaiting the outcome of negotiations [10] - The polyester market is responding to rising oil prices, with significant price increases observed in various polyester products, indicating a strong market demand despite concerns from downstream buyers [10][11] - The average transaction prices for key materials have shown notable increases, with PX rising by 36 to $854 and PTA rising by 155 to $5010 [15]