FICC日报 | 2025-09-24 风险 若国内政策落地不及预期、海外货币政策超预期、地缘风险升级，股指有下行风险 市场分析 关注"十五五"规划。国内方面，工信部部长李乐成表示，"十五五"时期，要实施培育新兴产业打造新动能行动， 加快打造一批新兴支柱产业；建立未来产业投入增长机制，开辟人形机器人、脑机接口、元宇宙、量子信息等新 赛道，创建一批未来产业先导区。海外方面，鲍威尔表示，从许多衡量指标来看，比如股票价格，目前的确相当 高估。但他也表示，目前并不是金融稳定风险高企的时候；美联储的职责不是盯着股价或决定合理估值是多少。 此外，他未就美联储是否会在10月会议上降息给出任何暗示，令市场失望。 指数坚挺。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收红，沪指跌0.18%收于3821.83点，创业板指涨0.21%。行业方面，板块 指数涨多跌少，仅银行、煤炭、电力设备等五个行业收红，社会服务、商贸零售、计算机、钢铁行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交金额为2.5万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收跌，纳指跌0.95%报22573.473点。 期指增仓。期货市场，基差方面，IC、IM贴水程度继续加深。成交持仓方面，股指期货成交量和持仓 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective decline on September 23, 2025, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.70% to 26,159.12, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.45% to 6,167.06, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.86% to 9,290.34 [3][6][10] - The market's total trading volume reached HKD 294.56 billion, with southbound funds recording a net sell of HKD 4.069 billion [3][10] - The industrial sector saw a notable shift, with the Hong Kong banking sector (+0.77%) and public utilities (+0.25%) gaining favor, while hardware equipment (-1.84%) and food and beverage (-1.94%) sectors faced declines [6][10] Industry Analysis - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology highlighted new industrial opportunities at the 25th China International Industry Fair, which positively impacted the Hong Kong machinery sector, leading to a strong performance [10] - A significant rotation in market preferences was observed, with defensive sectors like banking and public utilities attracting investment, while previously high-performing sectors like hardware equipment faced profit-taking [10] - Future growth in the Hong Kong market may be driven by AI technology and new consumption trends, with expectations of continued inflows from southbound funds and improved liquidity from potential U.S. interest rate cuts [10]

（上接A01版）此外，李乐成还提出，要提升产业科技创新体系整体效能。推动科技创新和产业创新深 度融合，强化企业科技创新主体地位，完善国家制造业创新中心建设布局，建立健全中试平台梯次培育 体系，大力发展科技服务业，促进创新链和产业链无缝对接。实施国家高新区新赛道培育行动，打造世 界领先科技产业园区。 9月23日，工业和信息化部部长李乐成在第25届中国国际工业博览会开幕式上表示，"十五五"时期，工 信部将牢牢锚定实现新型工业化这个关键任务，以推动高质量发展为主题，以发展新质生产力为重点， 以推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合为关键路径，以改革创新为根本动力，加快建设以先进制造业为骨 干的现代化产业体系。 其中，在培育壮大新兴和未来产业方面，李乐成强调，要实施培育新兴产业打造新动能行动，统筹技术 创新、规模化发展和应用场景建设，加快打造一批新兴支柱产业；建立未来产业投入增长机制，加强前 沿技术研发和应用推广，开辟人形机器人、脑机接口、元宇宙、量子信息等新赛道，创建一批未来产业 先导区。（下转A02版） ● 本报记者 杨洁 要加力推进传统产业焕新升级。坚持高端化智能化绿色化发展，突出价值创造，深入实施制造业技术改 造升级 ...

走进国家自然博物馆，生动的数字人便能通过手机为你讲解；可通过MR技术沉浸式游览玉渊潭生态景观，这些都是如今借助科技力量为游客提供的全新旅 游体验。 9月12日，"科技新场景 激活新消费论坛"在服贸会期间举办。此次论坛在推动文化和旅游高质量发展的同时，还共同探讨了场景创新，激发消费新未来的无 限可能。 伴随着新一轮科技革命纵深推进，数字经济、科技与消费融合不断深化，新场景、新业态、新模式正加速涌现。北京市科学技术委员会文化科技处车远征在 论坛致辞中指出，文旅产业中，科技不仅仅是工具，更是构建消费场景的基因。从贵州中国天眼将天文观测转化为科普旅游IP，到海南文昌火箭发射观礼打 造沉浸式科技体验，科技正让文旅消费从感官体验升级为价值共赢。科技与文旅的深度融合，使场景从静态展示到沉浸交互、使消费从单一观光到体验经 济、使价值从流量经济到品牌输出的延伸。 2025年政府工作报告中指出，发展智慧旅游沉浸式体验新空间（如VR/AR/XR、元宇宙、裸眼3D等）。基于2025年政府工作报告内容，依托新质生产力构建 文旅消费新场景成为当下文旅行业转型的节点之一。在智慧旅游发展政策导向下，博物馆作为文旅融合的重要载体，其数字化转型 ...

Group 1 - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Cultural Industry Investment Conference has released cultural industry investment funds totaling approximately 25 billion yuan over two years, with a signed investment amount of 2 billion yuan in 2023 and an actual financing amount of 1.51 billion yuan within a year [1] - The average market valuation of companies participating in roadshows has increased by 23.6%, with examples such as Jason Animation's valuation rising from less than 600 million yuan to 2 billion yuan [1][3] - The conference aims to connect cultural enterprises with investment institutions, promoting investment opportunities in the cultural sector and enhancing collaboration between the two parties [5][6] Group 2 - The Greater Bay Area has created 1/9 of the national economic output with only 0.6% of the country's land area, showcasing rapid development in new productive forces [3] - The cultural industry in Guangdong is characterized by strong competitive advantages in digital creativity, animation games, online audio-visual, and digital cultural manufacturing [4] - The conference emphasizes investment in future-oriented cultural sectors rather than traditional cultural fields, aligning with national strategies for cultural digitalization and technological integration [4][5] Group 3 - The 2025 Greater Bay Area Cultural Industry Investment Conference is scheduled to take place from November 26 to 28 in Guangzhou, featuring a "3+365" model for year-round investment services [7] - The conference will include a main forum, eight thematic roadshows, and various supporting activities to showcase new products, technologies, and scenarios, facilitating funding for enterprises and project discovery for investors [7] - The conference aims to promote deep integration of culture, technology, and finance, continuously launching new cultural projects in areas such as AIGC, digital humans, and the metaverse [7]

Group 1 - The Hangzhou Asian Games showcased the immense potential of sports economy and provided a model for interaction between sports and other industries [1] - The event led to the emergence of new technologies in sports, such as AI restoration of historical footage and the first cloud-based Asian Village [1] - China Mobile Migu, as the official broadcaster, utilized various technologies like 5G and XR to enhance the viewing experience, promoting a new level of intelligent spectator engagement [1] Group 2 - Large sports events enhance urban public facilities and services, creating a talent pool for the sports industry, benefiting companies, industries, and cities [2] - The Asian Games significantly boosted the local tourism economy, with hotel bookings in the "Asian Games Six Cities" increasing over 60% compared to 2019 [2] - Emerging sports included in the Asian Games are expected to have broader development potential, while large events will drive public fitness enthusiasm and highlight the demand for quality sports services [2] Group 3 - China Mobile Migu has actively participated in major sports events, witnessing and contributing to the development of the sports economy [3] - The integration of audiovisual and sports is increasingly demanded, with Migu enhancing the spectator experience through technological innovations [3] - Large events positively impact surrounding economies by improving infrastructure and promoting tourism, media, and advertising sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to integrate various advantageous resources and expand new channels for development while focusing on its main business and development strategy [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company will continue to deepen its services in mobile communication technology, focusing on the needs of operators and major equipment manufacturers for technological research and development [1] - The company plans to actively expand business cooperation with operators and major equipment manufacturers in areas such as government and enterprise services and the digital economy [1] Group 2: Industry Opportunities - The low-altitude economy presents multiple opportunities for the communication industry, and the company intends to leverage its years of experience in the communication sector to track new industry opportunities [1] - The company will continue research and development in digital products related to the metaverse, virtual reality, and digital humans, aiming to expand related business [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing contribution of the internet content industry, represented by short videos, live streaming, knowledge payment, and the metaverse, to economic growth, particularly in Shanghai, which has introduced measures to support high-quality internet content creation [1] Group 1: Industry Development Initiatives - The initiative aims to build a gathering area for high-quality internet content creation, promoting the clustering of related upstream and downstream enterprises and enhancing the integration of finance, technology, and content industries [2] - Public resources such as landmark scenic spots and cultural venues are opened to creators, providing significant support for the development of the internet content industry [2] - The initiative encourages high-quality content to go global and optimizes visa services for foreign creators, promoting the globalization of the internet content industry [2] Group 2: Financial Support Mechanisms - The initiative proposes to broaden financing channels, encouraging banks, venture capital, and private equity funds to enter the content industry and establish special funds to support high-quality content creation [3] - Customized financing services for content enterprises will be promoted, including the use of intellectual property financing tools and the development of asset-backed securities (ABS) based on cash flows generated from intellectual property [4] Group 3: Technological Integration - The article highlights the rapid development of AI-driven content creation and the application of modern technologies such as blockchain, the metaverse, and VR/AR in content creation [5] - Blockchain technology is emphasized for its ability to confirm and trace copyrights, enhancing the value of intellectual property in the content creation industry [6] - The establishment of a scientific intellectual property evaluation system and industry standards is deemed crucial for promoting the development of the internet content industry [6]

Group 1 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has commenced construction in Linzhi City, Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [2] - The National Export Control Work Coordination Mechanism Office has organized a meeting to enhance law enforcement against strategic mineral smuggling and export, emphasizing the establishment of a joint enforcement coordination center [2] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has emphasized the need to reform small and medium financial institutions to effectively prevent and resolve key area risks, while enhancing consumer protection [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, focusing on structural adjustments and eliminating backward production capacity [4] - The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting to discuss establishing a new mechanism for capacity governance to prevent overcapacity risks in the steel industry [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission is working on promoting the healthy and orderly development of the low-altitude economy, preventing inefficient and repetitive construction in the low-altitude industry [4] Group 3 - Yushutech has initiated its listing counseling process [6] - Zhongcheng Tui's stock will be delisted on July 21, 2025, while *ST Zitian's stock may be terminated, and will be suspended from trading on the same date [7] - Jichuan Pharmaceutical disclosed the results of the Cao Fei tender offer, with its stock set to resume trading on July 21 [8] Group 4 - Zhongtai Securities continues to recommend the banking sector, highlighting the stability and sustainability of bank stocks, particularly favoring regional banks with strong certainty [10] - Guangfa Strategy notes the asymmetry between downside risks and upside returns, suggesting asset allocation in economic cycle-related assets and sectors with current favorable fundamentals [11]

Group 1: Key Industry Developments - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has commenced construction in Linzhi, Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [2] - The National Export Control Work Coordination Mechanism Office has organized a meeting to enhance enforcement against strategic mineral smuggling and export, emphasizing the establishment of a joint enforcement coordination center [2] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has held a meeting focusing on the reform and risk management of small and medium financial institutions, aiming to prevent illegal financial activities and protect consumer rights [2] Group 2: Regulatory Actions and Industry Meetings - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, to optimize supply and eliminate outdated capacity [4] - The China Iron and Steel Association has convened a meeting to discuss establishing a new capacity governance mechanism to prevent overcapacity risks in the steel industry [4] - A special meeting led by the National Development and Reform Commission has been held to promote the healthy development of the low-altitude economy, focusing on preventing inefficient and redundant construction [4] Group 3: Company News - Yushutech has initiated its listing guidance process [6] - Zhongcheng Tui's stock will be delisted on July 21, 2025 [7] - *ST Zitian's stock may be terminated from listing, with suspension starting on July 21 [8] - Xiling Information's controlling shareholder is planning a change in control, leading to a suspension on July 21 [9] - Kanghua Biology's controlling shareholder intends to change to Shanghai Wankexin Biotechnology Partnership, with resumption of trading on July 21 [10] - Jichuan Pharmaceutical has disclosed the results of a tender offer by Cao Fei, with stock resuming trading on July 21 [11] - Baichuan Co.'s controlling shareholder and chairman Zheng Tiejiang has returned to work and is performing normal duties [12] - Dongli New Science has had its wholly-owned subsidiary SAIC Hongyan accepted for reorganization by the court [13] - Daotong Technology's controlling shareholder has proposed a mid-term dividend of 5.8 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) for 2025 [14] - Shaanxi Guotou A reported a net profit of 726 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.74% [15] - China First Heavy Industries expects a net loss of 90 million to 108 million yuan for the first half of the year [16]