Core Viewpoint - Ximai Foods, known as "China's Oatmeal First Stock," has outlined its plans for the next 3-5 years, focusing on health food centered around oats and expanding its market share, particularly in the cold oatmeal sector and the broader health industry [1][3] Group 1: Company Performance - Ximai Foods aims to achieve a 15% revenue increase by 2025, despite facing a declining net profit margin over the past five years [1][3] - From 2019 to 2024, Ximai Foods' revenue grew from 973 million to 1.896 billion, while net profit margin decreased from 16.18% to 7.02% [3][4] Group 2: Cost Pressures - The company is experiencing significant cost pressures, particularly due to rising raw material costs, with a 27.13% increase in operating costs in 2024, outpacing the 20.16% revenue growth [4][5] - Ximai Foods relies heavily on Australian oats, which constitute about 90% of its raw material supply, making it vulnerable to price fluctuations and supply issues [4][5] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - To mitigate costs, Ximai Foods plans to increase the use of domestic oats and is developing a stable supply chain, including a new production base in Zhangbei [4][5] - The company is diversifying its product offerings by entering the health sector, launching various protein powders and beverages, although these new products currently contribute a small percentage to total revenue [6][7] Group 4: Market Challenges - The overall oatmeal market is experiencing slowed growth, with a significant decline noted in 2022, prompting Ximai Foods to seek new growth avenues in the health sector [6][7] - The competitive landscape in the health market is intense, with established players dominating, posing challenges for Ximai Foods as a new entrant [7][8]

证券代码：002956 证券简称：西麦食品 桂林西麦食品股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | | ☑特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系 活动类别 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | ☑现场参观 □其他（线上交流会） | | 称及人员 | 方正证券、光大证券、国海证券、东北证券、中银国际证券、平安证券、华鑫 商证券、广发证券； | | | 证券、国泰海通证券、开源证券、长江证券、财通证券、德邦证券、东吴证券、 | | | 华泰证券、中信建投证券、东方财富、中金公司 、民生证券、华西证券、招 | | 参与单位名 | 长信基金、博时基金、长安基金、国寿安保、趣时资产、招银理财、诺安基金、 | | | 墩和资管、华夏基金、兴业资管、华夏基金、华泰柏瑞、万家基金、华富基金、 | | | 开源资管、鹏华基金、银华基金、安信基金、博道基金、工银瑞信、易方达、 | | | 安信基金、泉果基金、华泰资产、太保资产、慎知资产、Dymon Asia、新华基 | | | 金、启泰基金、平安基金、理臻投资。 | | | 等投资者 人 62 | | 时间 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ximai Food, known as "China's Oatmeal First Stock," is facing significant challenges including cost pressures, food safety issues, and sluggish growth in new business segments despite achieving record revenue and profit in 2024 [1][2][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Ximai Food reported a record revenue of 1.896 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.16%, and a net profit of 133 million yuan, up 15.36% [1]. - The gross profit margin fell to 41.33%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points year-on-year, with operating costs rising by 27.13%, significantly outpacing revenue growth [2]. - The net profit margin has declined from 16.18% in 2019 to 7.02% in 2024, indicating a nearly halved profit margin over five years [2]. Cost Management Issues - The company relies heavily on imported oats from Australia, which has led to increased raw material costs due to rising prices [2]. - Management has acknowledged the challenge of rising raw material costs and plans to optimize supply chain management and improve procurement efficiency, although specific measures remain unclear [2]. Food Safety Concerns - Ximai Food has faced multiple food safety issues, including five instances of mold contamination over the past 12 years, raising concerns about its quality control systems [3][4]. - In 2024, a batch of high-calcium milk oatmeal was found to have mold levels exceeding safety limits by over ten times, attributed to poor storage management by a distributor [3]. New Business Development - The company is attempting to diversify into the health market, with health-related product revenue growing by 23.89% to 136 million yuan in 2024, but this only represents 7.18% of total revenue [10]. - The international business is still in the exploratory phase, with no specific revenue contributions disclosed despite efforts to enter multiple overseas markets [11]. Production Capacity and Utilization - Ximai Food's designed production capacity for oatmeal products increased to 131,000 tons in 2024, but actual utilization was below 70%, indicating potential overcapacity issues [2][11]. - The company is expanding its production capabilities with new projects aimed at improving supply chain stability and product quality [12]. Future Outlook - The company has set ambitious revenue growth targets of 15%, 32.25%, and 52.0876% for the years 2025 to 2027, based on 2024 revenue [12]. - However, the combination of food safety crises and cost pressures poses significant challenges to achieving sustainable growth [13].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth and profitability in 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by its core oat business and expansion into new retail channels [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 130 million yuan, up 15.4% [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 660 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, with a net profit of 60 million yuan, increasing by 21.2% [1]. Product Performance - The company's main oat products, including pure oat flakes, compound oat flakes, and cold oat products, generated revenues of 710 million, 850 million, 150 million, 140 million, and 50 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 9.6%, 28.8%, 24.1%, 23.9%, and 25.3% [2]. - The "Oat+" series and the classic milk oat series each surpassed 200 million yuan in sales, with the "Oat+" series growing over 20% and the milk oat series over 30% year-on-year [2]. Channel Development - The company emphasized the development of direct sales channels, achieving revenue of 830 million yuan from direct sales, a year-on-year increase of 31.0% [2]. - Online sales, particularly through traditional e-commerce and social e-commerce platforms like Douyin, saw significant growth, with Douyin's GMV reaching 470 million yuan, up 20.3% year-on-year [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 41.3%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs and low capacity utilization of new production facilities [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.0%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 8.3% in Q1 2025, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase [3]. Strategic Expansion - The company is expanding its product range beyond oats, developing new products such as instant porridge, lotus root powder, sesame paste, and probiotic protein powder, while also pursuing strategic partnerships and acquisitions [3][4]. - The company is actively embracing new retail channels, including snack wholesale, Douyin e-commerce, and membership stores, leading to rapid growth [4]. Market Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 180 million, 230 million, and 280 million yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.81, 1.01, and 1.24 yuan [4]. - As a leading player in the oat industry, the company is expected to benefit from market expansion and increased concentration, with potential for profit improvement in the future [4].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.896 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.16%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 133 million yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a decline in gross margin due to high raw material costs and new factory production, with a gross margin of 37.37% in Q4 2024, down 8.29 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and diversifying channels, with significant growth in composite oats and other processed products [4] Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 463 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.04%, and a net profit of 25 million yuan, up 8.22% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 656 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.93%, and a net profit of 55 million yuan, up 21.17% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 43.65%, a slight decrease of 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [2] Cost and Expense Management - The company adjusted its expense rhythm, resulting in a decrease in expense ratio to 31.89% in Q4 2024, down 11.21 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The selling expense ratio for Q4 2024 was 24.02%, down 12.33 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 8.32%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points year-on-year [3] Product and Channel Strategy - The company is increasing its focus on composite oats and other deep-processed products, with revenue growth of nearly 30% for composite oats and over 170% for protein powder [4] - The company is expanding into new channels, with snack wholesale growth close to 50% and new retail channel GMV sales exceeding 100 million yuan, up 35% year-on-year [4] - The company anticipates improved profit elasticity due to a decrease in raw material prices and an increase in the use of new materials in Q2 [4] Future Outlook - The company projects revenues of 2.290 billion yuan, 2.741 billion yuan, and 3.309 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.78%, 19.69%, and 20.73% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 177 million yuan, 220 million yuan, and 270 million yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 33.17%, 24.23%, and 22.33% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 22.13 yuan over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.896 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.16%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 133 million yuan, up 15.36% year-on-year [1]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the rapid increase in sales of composite and cold oat products, with online sales channels growing over 17% and offline sales increasing by 14% [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost advantages as the price of Australian oats declines, enhancing profit margins [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 41.33%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising oat prices and lower margins in online and new retail channels [2]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.02%, down 0.30 percentage points year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, the net profit margin improved to 8.28%, reflecting a positive trend [2]. - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.88, 1.21, and 1.52 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21x, 15x, and 12x [3]. Revenue and Profit Growth Projections - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 18.14% for 2025, with net profit expected to increase by 47.82% [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 2.24 billion yuan, with net profit reaching 197 million yuan [4]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established itself as a leader in the oat industry, with strong performance in both traditional and new retail channels [1][3]. - The successful launch of new products, such as oatmeal porridge in Sam's Club, indicates a robust sales strategy and market penetration [3].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·休闲食品 西麦食品（002956） 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评：持续稳健 增长，2025Q1 成本红利释放 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,578 | 1,896 | 2,214 | 2,546 | 2,884 | | 同比（%） | 18.89 | 20.16 | 16.78 | 15.00 | 13.25 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 115.45 | 133.19 | 180.63 | 229.20 | 276.09 | | 同比（%） | 6.08 | 15.36 | 35.62 | 26.89 | 20.46 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.52 | 0.60 | 0.81 | 1.03 | 1.24 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 35.95 | 31.16 | 22.98 | 18.11 | 15.03 | [Tab ...