食品饮料/休闲食品 西麦食品（002956.SZ） 收入增长势能较好，产品、渠道持续开拓 2025 年 08 月 28 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/27 | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 21.83 | | | 一年最高最低(元) | 25.34/10.09 | | | 总市值(亿元) | 48.73 | | | 流通市值(亿元) | 48.73 | | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.23 | | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.23 | | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 138.15 | | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 西麦食品 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024 年收入稳步增长，2025 年利润 弹性有望释放—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.4.28 《员工持股计划落地，立足中长期稳 健发展 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.2.20 《春节销售预期乐观，成本改善释放 利 润 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's total operating revenue for H1 2025 reached 1.149 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.07%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 81 million, up 22.46% year-on-year [7] - The revenue growth accelerated in Q2 2025, driven by strong downstream demand, indicating significant growth potential for the company [7] - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% in revenue from 2025 to 2027, with profit elasticity anticipated due to cost reductions in 2025 [7] Financial Summary - Total operating revenue projections are as follows: 1,896 million in 2024, 2,255 million in 2025, 2,581 million in 2026, and 2,884 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.16%, 18.91%, 14.49%, and 11.72% respectively [1][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 133 million in 2024, 180 million in 2025, 229 million in 2026, and 276 million in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 15.36%, 35.38%, 26.75%, and 20.83% [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.60 in 2024, 0.81 in 2025, 1.02 in 2026, and 1.24 in 2027 [1][8] - The company’s P/E ratios are expected to be 40.46 in 2024, 29.89 in 2025, 23.58 in 2026, and 19.52 in 2027 [1][8]

Group 1: Company Development Plans - The company aims to maintain its position as the leading player in the oat industry over the next 3-5 years, focusing on health food products primarily based on oats [1][2] - Plans to expand into the cold oat food market and develop new health products [2][3] - The company will enhance its offline channel dominance while adapting to new channel trends [2][5] Group 2: E-commerce Strategy - The company has seen rapid growth in sales on the Douyin platform and is adjusting its product structure to include higher value-added products [2][3] - Strategies to optimize sales methods on e-commerce platforms include adjusting the ratio of live broadcasts and influencer promotions [2][3] Group 3: Product Development and Consumer Trends - New product development will focus on meal replacement and functional needs, responding to the growing demand in these segments [3][4] - The company is shifting its target demographic from primarily older consumers to include younger consumers, with over 35% of buyers aged 30-40 and about 10% aged 18-25 [3][4] Group 4: Channel Adaptation - Despite a decline in offline supermarket traffic, the company continues to experience growth in offline sales by embracing channel changes [4][5] - The company is leveraging community, private domain, and membership warehouse channels to achieve rapid sales growth [5] Group 5: Raw Material Sourcing - The company uses Australian oats due to their high quality and mature supply chain, while gradually increasing the use of domestic oats [5] - A new oat production base in Zhangbei is set to enhance the integration of planting, grain collection, and processing [5]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.896 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.16%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 133 million yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a decline in gross margin due to high raw material costs and new factory production, with a gross margin of 37.37% in Q4 2024, down 8.29 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and diversifying channels, with significant growth in composite oats and other processed products [4] Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 463 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.04%, and a net profit of 25 million yuan, up 8.22% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 656 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.93%, and a net profit of 55 million yuan, up 21.17% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 43.65%, a slight decrease of 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [2] Cost and Expense Management - The company adjusted its expense rhythm, resulting in a decrease in expense ratio to 31.89% in Q4 2024, down 11.21 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The selling expense ratio for Q4 2024 was 24.02%, down 12.33 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 8.32%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points year-on-year [3] Product and Channel Strategy - The company is increasing its focus on composite oats and other deep-processed products, with revenue growth of nearly 30% for composite oats and over 170% for protein powder [4] - The company is expanding into new channels, with snack wholesale growth close to 50% and new retail channel GMV sales exceeding 100 million yuan, up 35% year-on-year [4] - The company anticipates improved profit elasticity due to a decrease in raw material prices and an increase in the use of new materials in Q2 [4] Future Outlook - The company projects revenues of 2.290 billion yuan, 2.741 billion yuan, and 3.309 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.78%, 19.69%, and 20.73% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 177 million yuan, 220 million yuan, and 270 million yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 33.17%, 24.23%, and 22.33% [4]