Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1][7]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in the company's Q3 performance, attributed to a rebound in coking coal prices and effective cost control measures [4][5]. - The company reported a total revenue of 27.18 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.43 billion yuan, down 50% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1%, with a net profit of 420 million yuan, down 52% year-on-year but up 26% quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In Q3 2025, the average price of main coking coal at ports increased by 19% quarter-on-quarter, aiding the company's performance [5]. - The average price of premium metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1,437 yuan/ton, down 23% year-on-year but up 5% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The company benefited from improved supply-demand dynamics in the coking coal industry due to ongoing policies to curb overproduction and high iron output levels [5]. Cost Management - The company successfully managed costs, with operating costs decreasing by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter and 19% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [5]. - The sales expense ratio was 1.0%, down 0.42 percentage points year-on-year and 0.19 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the management expense ratio was 8.3%, down 0.42 percentage points year-on-year and 1.48 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have revenues of 39.9 billion yuan, 41.7 billion yuan, and 43.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year changes of -12%, +5%, and +5% [5][6]. - Net profits are expected to be 2.2 billion yuan, 2.8 billion yuan, and 3.4 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting year-on-year changes of -30%, +27%, and +23% [5][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.39 yuan, 0.49 yuan, and 0.60 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19, 15, and 12 times [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The futures market for coke has seen a continuous increase, with the main contract reaching 1522.0 CNY/ton, marking a rise of 2.98% [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The spot market for coke has also experienced price increases, with the price of premium metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port rising to 1260 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton from the previous period [2] - National statistics from 230 independent coke enterprises indicate a capacity utilization rate of 72.72%, down by 0.48%, and an average daily coke production of 51.29 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.34 thousand tons [2] - Coke inventory stands at 59.58 thousand tons, down by 2.02 thousand tons, while total coking coal inventory has increased to 752.44 thousand tons, up by 36 thousand tons [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Ruida Futures, the fourth round of price reductions for coke has been implemented, with the raw material supply gradually improving and iron output remaining high [3] - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is reported at 63 CNY/ton [3] - Zhongcai Futures notes that despite long-term supply-demand imbalances expected to worsen, the short-term fundamentals for coking coal remain strong, with a weekly decrease in coking coal inventory of 7.22% and a decrease in coke inventory of 9.67% [3]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 日期 2025 年 5 月 26 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：5月23日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2509 | 1406.5 | 1406 | 1418 | 1376 | 1383 | -1.81% | 25,439 | 55,648 | | 940 0.00 | ...