1.2行业层面：量增推动销额较好增长、品类表现分化。按照尼尔森数据，我国软饮料销售额近年保持 中高个位数增长，量增为主、价基本持平，其中MAT2503销售额、销售量、单价分别同比增长7.4%、 7.2%、0.2%;分月度看，25H1软饮料全渠道销售额同比增速均为正，7月份开始转负且下滑趋势在8、9 月有所扩大，主要受外卖大战及新兴渠道如会员店、零食集合店崛起(尼尔森数据尚未覆盖)影响。细分 品类看，马上赢数据显示仅运动饮料连续3个季度保持较好增长，植物饮料H1销额双位数增长但价格略 承压，即饮果汁个位数增长、单价上行，其他品类销售额则不同程度承压，Q3全品类增长放缓或降幅 扩大的趋势与尼尔森数据相照应。 2.2026年展望：健康化、功能化主导的结构性繁荣，需求延续景气 2.1宏观周期：积极价格信号已现，软饮料需求不惧环境扰动。2025年10月CPI同比转正、PPI同比跌幅 持续收窄且环比实现年内首次上涨，积极价格信号已现但PPI转正时点及企业盈利企稳回升仍需要进一 步观察。同时，2025年下半年以来社零同比增速在高基数及补贴退坡影响下有所放缓，而中期维度考虑 居民收入增速仍受资产价格拖累、消费意愿偏低及宏观环 ...

Core Insights - The overlapping of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in 2025 is expected to boost offline retail consumption, prompting increased festive spending [1] - The analysis will cover offline retail consumption data for September 2025 and the first ten days of October 2025, focusing on key consumption categories [1][2] Time Period and Category Overview - The observation period for the 2025 Mid-Autumn and National Day holiday spans from September 1, 2025, to October 10, 2025, covering 40 days [3] - The 2024 holiday period is similarly defined, allowing for a comparative analysis of consumption trends [4] Category Selection for Analysis - Three main consumption directions are identified for the analysis: festive ready-to-eat snacks and traditional foods, festive dairy products and beverages, and convenient ready-to-eat and frozen foods [5] - The selected categories aim to capture different consumer needs and scenarios during the festive period [5] Festive Snacks and Traditional Foods - Sales data indicates that most categories are experiencing a decline in both sales revenue and volume, except for mooncakes and traditional pastries, which show growth [6][8] - The decline in average prices for mooncakes and traditional pastries suggests a shift towards more affordable, larger quantity products [10] Dairy Products and Beverages - All selected categories in this segment are experiencing negative growth in both sales revenue and volume [15] - Notably, instant coffee shows a significant decline in sales revenue, while ready-to-drink juices are performing relatively better due to a shift towards higher-quality products [17] Convenient Ready-to-Eat and Frozen Foods - Sales revenue and volume for most categories in this segment are also declining, with frozen foods showing better performance compared to instant foods [23] - The average prices for instant foods and sausages have increased, indicating a potential shift in consumer preferences [22] Regional Performance Insights - Across various regions, snack categories are under pressure, with declines in sales revenue and volume attributed to market fragmentation and health trends [26] - Frozen foods are performing well in most regions, particularly in the Northwest and North China, where sales have increased significantly [30][33] - In contrast, the Southwest region shows severe declines in all categories, particularly in beer and ready-to-drink juices, likely influenced by weather conditions [41]

Overall Summary - The offline retail consumption situation for Q2 2025 shows a general decline in sales across major categories such as food, beverages, alcohol, and daily chemicals, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters [2][4][6]. Group 1: Retail Performance Overview - The analysis is based on data from the "Shangma Ying Brand CT," which monitors offline retail across various city levels and includes over 30,000 brands and 14 million product barcodes [2]. - The overall sales revenue for Q2 2025 is down approximately 7% year-on-year, with a better performance in order volume compared to average spending, indicating consumer pressure on budgets and prices [4][6]. - The price index for food, beverages, alcohol, and daily chemicals shows a gradual recovery, but remains under pressure, with most categories below the baseline index of 100 [4][6]. Group 2: Key Category Insights - In the food category, frozen products like frozen sausages have shown significant market share growth, while dairy products are stabilizing after previous declines [13][22]. - The beverage category has seen strong growth in sports and plant-based drinks, with some products exceeding 30% year-on-year growth, although the overall market remains competitive [17][29]. - The snack category is experiencing a decline in market share due to health trends and new retail formats, with significant drops in sales for various subcategories [14][22]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The average spending per order has increased for certain categories like ready-to-drink juices and plant-based beverages, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards higher-quality products [34][35]. - The average purchase quantity per order has decreased across all selected categories, suggesting a trend towards larger packaging or a focus on value [40]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly in the frozen food and beverage sectors, with numerous brands vying for market share [46][47].