[Table_Rank] 评级： 看好 赵瑞 分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522120001 zhaorui@sczq.com.cn [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 9-Oct 19-Dec 28-Feb 10-May 20-Jul 29-Sep 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关研究 [Table_Title] 食品饮料：存量时代的品牌突围路径 [Table_ReportDate] 食品饮料 | 行业深度报告 | 2025.10.10 核心观点 [Table_Authors] [Table_Summary] [Table_OtherReport] 白酒把握估值修复，食品聚焦成长赛 道 政策定调积极，继续看好食饮板块 ⚫ 存量时代下的食品饮料投资逻辑。由于食品饮料主要子行业人均消费量 已经见顶，以及近年来商务需求承压、消费平替现象加深的背景下，酒 水及大众品的价格体系出现下沉趋势，食品饮料整体面临量价双重压 制，行业阶段性进入到存量时代。在存量环境下，食品饮料板块的投资 逻辑也较以往有所变化，部分行业龙头强化股东回报，较高的 ...

作为聚会宴席上的"重头戏"，大闸蟹一直是电商平台紧抓的流量品类。多个电商平台已推出大闸蟹消费专区来吸引用户购买，促销蟹卡、大闸蟹礼盒。 北京商报记者丨何倩 中秋国庆"双节"来临，亲朋聚会增多，大闸蟹在电商平台热销。9月29日，北京商报记者从多家电商平台获悉，临近节假日，加之阳澄湖等重点产区大闸 蟹陆续上市，部分平台大闸蟹"双节"期间销量将较节前增长4—5倍，蟹卡GMV同比增长超三成。部分专业人士认为，9月消费市场呈现出强烈的节点属 性。投入全自动小件分拣、承包养殖基地、拓展原产地采购……一只大闸蟹从蟹塘到门店直到餐桌，背后也是一场供应链韧性的比拼。 作为聚会宴席上的"重头戏"，大闸蟹一直是电商平台紧抓的流量品类。多个电商平台已推出大闸蟹消费专区来吸引用户购买，促销蟹卡、大闸蟹礼盒。以 叮咚买菜为例，消费者购买两只鲜活黄河口盐田大闸蟹（母蟹）可享优惠，阳澄湖大闸蟹蟹卡则降价11—111元不等。 "黄河口大闸蟹表现尤为亮眼，节前销量已实现同比约2倍增长。"据叮咚买菜相关负责人预计，大闸蟹"双节"期间销量将较节前增长4—5倍，达到年内销 售最高峰。据了解，叮咚买菜还在挖掘传统产区外的特色地域大闸蟹系列，包括新疆的天 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising popularity of freshly made snacks, particularly represented by the brand Xueji Snacks, which focuses on freshness and quality to meet consumer demands [2][3] - Xueji Snacks has expanded its product offerings to include nuts, dried fruits, and other leisure snacks, with the number of stores exceeding 1,200 nationwide as of 2024 [2] - The company emphasizes that its competitive edge lies in quality and consumer perception of value rather than price competition, stating that they do not engage in price wars [2] Group 2 - Previous funding was primarily allocated to establish a food factory in Texas, covering an area of 133,000 square meters with an annual production capacity of 117,000 tons [3] - Xueji Snacks maintains a strict procurement standard for raw materials, which increases costs but ensures high quality, aiming for a balance between price and quality while achieving reasonable profits [3] - The company plans to continue focusing on key products like chestnuts and cashews, enhancing product quality and expanding its research and development team to introduce more appealing products [3]

Group 1: Key Insights on Baijiu Industry - Demand for banquets has been released in July and August, with a focus on business hospitality and gift-giving ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1][2] - External risk events have had a decreasing impact on baijiu consumption scenarios, but overall consumption sentiment remains lower compared to the same period last year, leading to an estimated 20% year-on-year decline in sales [2][3] - The baijiu sector is expected to stabilize and recover as consumer sentiment improves, supported by ongoing consumption promotion policies and a gradual recovery in demand [2][3] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end baijiu brands with strong market positions, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as Shanxi Fenjiu, which is benefiting from upward channel momentum [3] - Potential cyclical recovery candidates include national brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, along with innovative companies like Zhenjiu Lidu and Shede Liquor [3] Group 3: Insights on Other Alcoholic Beverages - Beer demand is recovering steadily, with companies diversifying into non-drinking channels and soft drinks, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4] - The yellow wine sector is expected to see improved competitive dynamics due to price increases among leading brands, with potential for marginal catalysts as the peak season approaches [4] Group 4: Insights on Non-Alcoholic Beverages and Snacks - The soft drink sector is experiencing growth in high-demand segments like energy drinks and sugar-free tea, while traditional categories face some pressure [5] - The snack industry is seeing an increase in store openings and revenue recovery, with specific products like nut gift boxes expected to see improved demand ahead of the holidays [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating, emphasizing the resilience of leading companies and the valuation recovery opportunities in the livestock and restaurant chains [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that national beer companies have shown stable revenue and profit performance, while regional companies exhibit better elasticity in performance. The cost decline has contributed to gross profit growth, and the improvement in expense ratios is gradually releasing profitability [5][24]. - In the snack food sector, the report notes a divergence in channel performance, with emerging channels like bulk snacks and membership supermarkets maintaining high momentum, while traditional channels face challenges. The focus is shifting from revenue growth to profitability logic [25]. - The restaurant chain sector is experiencing a bottoming out of fundamentals and sentiment, with a gradual recovery expected as policies adjust and consumption peaks approach. The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies like Haidilao and Guangzhou Restaurant [29][31]. - The livestock sector is anticipated to see a fundamental reversal as raw milk prices stabilize and beef prices rise, which could significantly enhance profitability for companies like China Shengmu [36][45]. Summary by Sections Beer - National beer companies have demonstrated operational resilience, with stable revenue growth driven primarily by volume recovery. Regional companies like Yanjing and Zhujiang Beer have shown stronger revenue performance [12][13]. - Cost improvements from raw material price declines and stable pricing have driven gross margin increases for beer companies. The report anticipates continued upward potential in the beer sector as terminal demand gradually recovers [18][24]. Snack Foods - The snack food sector is characterized by a split in channel performance, with new channels like bulk snacks and membership supermarkets thriving, while traditional channels face challenges. The report emphasizes the importance of profitability over revenue growth moving forward [25][26]. - Companies like Wancheng Group and Yuyuan Foods are highlighted for their strong performance in emerging channels, while others are advised to focus on cost optimization to enhance profitability [25][26]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant sector has been under pressure due to policies and competition, but a recovery is expected as restrictions ease and consumption peaks. The report suggests focusing on companies with low valuations and potential for recovery, such as Haidilao and Green Tea Group [29][31]. - The report notes that the overall restaurant revenue for H1 2025 was 2.75 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4.3% increase, but with high-end dining facing significant challenges [29][30]. Livestock - The livestock sector is expected to see a turnaround as raw milk prices stabilize and beef prices rise, which could significantly enhance profitability for companies like China Shengmu. The report indicates that the most challenging phase for livestock companies may be over [36][45]. - The report highlights that the decline in raw milk prices has pressured revenue, but a stabilization is anticipated, which could improve the valuation of biological assets and overall profitability [36][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [8]. Core Insights - The beverage sector is experiencing strong seasonal sales, with cost benefits offsetting competitive pressures, leading to stable profitability [14][20]. - The dairy sector shows flat demand in the first half of 2025, with expectations for improved performance during the upcoming holiday seasons [27][33]. - The beer sector faced demand pressure in Q2 due to policy factors, but cost benefits have become prominent [3][32]. - The snack food sector is experiencing a slowdown in revenue during the off-season, with leading companies focusing on channel adjustments [4][32]. - The condiment sector shows muted demand, with a focus on adjustments and cost improvements [5][32]. - The frozen food sector continues to face operational pressures, with industry price competition affecting profitability [6][32]. Beverage Sector Summary - The soft drink segment achieved Q2 revenue growth of 22.8% year-on-year, driven by strong travel demand and new product launches [14][25]. - Major raw material prices are declining, contributing to stable profitability despite competitive pressures [20][24]. - Key companies such as Nongfu Spring and Uni-President China are recommended for their robust revenue and profit growth [14][20]. Dairy Sector Summary - The dairy sector reported a revenue increase of 3.5% in Q2, with expectations for demand recovery during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [27][28]. - Leading companies like Yili and Mengniu are highlighted for their improved profitability due to lower raw milk costs [27][33]. - The sector's gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in profitability [32][33]. Beer Sector Summary - The beer sector's Q2 revenue grew by 1.8%, with profitability supported by cost reductions [3][32]. - Companies like Yanjing Beer and Qingdao Beer are recommended for their strong performance in the premium segment [3][32]. Snack Food Sector Summary - The snack food sector experienced a revenue decline of 0.3% in Q2, with leading companies focusing on inventory management and channel strategies [4][32]. - Companies such as Weidong and Yanjinpuzi are recommended for their potential benefits from category and channel advantages [4][32]. Condiment Sector Summary - The condiment sector saw a revenue increase of 4.5% in Q2, with a focus on channel replenishment and cost improvements [5][32]. - Companies like Haitian Flavoring and Angel Yeast are highlighted for their strong market positions [5][32]. Frozen Food Sector Summary - The frozen food sector reported a revenue increase of 2.6% in Q2, but profitability is under pressure due to intense competition [6][32]. - Companies such as Anjijia and Lihai Foods are recommended for their potential recovery in the upcoming seasons [6][32].

Core Viewpoint - The company is focused on its core business of leisure snacks and is actively expanding domestic and international sales channels through innovative and high-quality products [1] Group 1 - The company is committed to enhancing its sales scale by continuously improving product quality and taste [1] - The company will disclose any significant matters in accordance with legal regulations [1]

Core Insights - Institutional attention is increasing in sectors such as electric equipment, basic chemicals, food and beverage, and steel, indicating a potential shift in investment focus [5][6][7] - The gaming industry shows signs of recovery, with significant growth in end-user engagement and new game releases expected to drive advertising demand [27][28][29] - The automotive sector is experiencing a surge in intelligent driving technology, with major players launching new algorithms and models that enhance safety and performance [17][18][19][21] - The communication industry is witnessing advancements with NVIDIA's launch of Spectrum-XGS Ethernet, which aims to optimize data center connectivity and support AI applications [22][24][25] Sector Summaries Electric Equipment - Institutional research indicates a rise in interest, with electric equipment being one of the top sectors under scrutiny [5][6] - Recent reports highlight significant growth in shipments and profitability for companies in this sector, suggesting a positive outlook [31][32] Food and Beverage - The sector is facing challenges with a 5.1% decline in revenue and a 73.7% drop in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to rising costs and increased marketing expenses [44][46] - Despite the downturn, there are efforts to innovate with new products and channels, which may lead to gradual improvement in performance [47] Automotive - Long-term growth is anticipated as the newly established state-owned enterprise group enhances decision-making efficiency and resource allocation [33] - The company reported a 51% increase in electric vehicle sales, indicating strong demand and successful new model launches [32] Communication - The introduction of Spectrum-XGS Ethernet by NVIDIA is expected to revolutionize data center operations, enhancing performance and reducing latency for AI applications [22][24] - The technology is seen as a critical component for future AI infrastructure, potentially leading to significant market opportunities [25] Gaming - The gaming industry is experiencing a resurgence, with new game approvals and a robust pipeline of upcoming titles expected to drive growth [28][29] - Companies are leveraging high engagement in traditional gaming venues to boost advertising revenues, indicating a healthy market environment [27]

Group 1 - The stock price of Dongfang Zhenxuan experienced significant volatility, dropping over 20% after a peak increase of more than 23% during the trading session, with a closing price of 34.32 HKD and a market capitalization of 359.1 billion HKD [1] - The sharp decline in stock price is linked to rumors regarding the CEO of New Oriental Group being investigated for alleged misappropriation of company interests through related party transactions, and potential regulatory restrictions on high commission models in the live streaming business [1] - Prior to the stock price drop, Dongfang Zhenxuan had seen a cumulative increase of 190% since July, reaching a two-year high of 53.7 HKD [1] Group 2 - Dongfang Zhenxuan's self-operated products include over 600 items across various categories such as agricultural products, household goods, snacks, and sanitary products, with a projected GMV of 350 million RMB by June 2025, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth [2] - The sales of self-operated products have a 60% share from shelf channels, including platforms like Douyin, indicating a strong market presence [2] - The latest earnings forecast suggests that Dongfang Zhenxuan's revenue for the second half of the 2025 fiscal year will be approximately 2.16 billion RMB, with an operating profit of around 44.71 million RMB, resulting in an operating profit margin of about 7% [2]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Food Industry Park is strategically located in the core area of the Yangtze River Delta, leveraging Shanghai's large consumer market and mature industrial chain to form a food processing industry cluster focused on specialty food [1][2] - The park benefits from Shanghai's advantages, including a population of over 20 million, high consumer demand for quality and diverse food products, and a well-developed logistics network that facilitates quick product delivery [2][3] - The industry park encourages the development of specialty food products, including traditional snacks and pre-prepared meals, while some companies localize imported food production to cater to domestic tastes [2][3] Group 2 - The park promotes modern production techniques to ensure food safety and quality, with strict quality control systems in place from raw material intake to finished product delivery [3][7] - A collaborative industrial chain model has been established, where upstream suppliers work closely with processing companies, and downstream sales channels connect with supermarkets and e-commerce platforms to reduce operational costs [7][10] - Future challenges include increasing market competition, rising raw material prices, and labor costs, prompting the need for continuous innovation and adaptation to consumer demands [10] Group 3 - The industry park aims to enhance smart production capabilities and strengthen food research and development to create healthier product options, such as low-sugar and low-salt foods [10] - The park is expected to play a more significant role in the food industry as consumer preferences evolve and technological advancements continue [10]