证券研究报告 | 2025年08月24日 转债市场周报 加强个券业绩、条款方面的考量 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周市场焦点（8 月 18 日-8 月 22 日） 股市方面，上周权益市场继续上涨，沪指周一创十年新高并于后续交易 日持续上涨，突破 3800 点位；DeepSeek 更新模型版本至 DeepSeek-V3.1、 英伟达暂停生产 H20 芯片、2025 中国算力大会近日在大同市举办等消息 催化下，半导体及算力国产替代逻辑持续强化，科技板块全周表现靠前 债市方面，上周债市总体下跌，权益市场大幅上涨下股债跷跷板效应明 显，叠加税期资金面边际收紧、央行二季度货币政策执行报告相关表述 减弱了市场对下半年总量性宽松政策的预期，债市情绪较弱；周五 10 年期国债利率收于 1.78%，较前周上行 3.53bp。 转债市场方面，上周转债个券多数收涨，中证转债指数全周+2.83%，价 格中位数+2.82%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周+2.24%，全市场转股溢 价率与上周相比+2.07%。个券层面，金铜（液冷服务器概念）、华医（半 导体洁净室）、伟测（IC 测试）、东杰（控制权变更）、水羊（护肤品 &中报业绩大增）转债涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the equity market generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3,600 points. The military industry sector remained high due to the approaching military parade, and the non - ferrous metals sector was boosted by factors such as rising gold prices and increased rare - earth exports. The pharmaceutical sector, which had accumulated high gains, saw a decline in sentiment. The bond market was generally volatile, and the new VAT regulations had no significant impact. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 1.68bp to 1.69% on Friday [1][8][9]. - In the convertible bond market, most individual convertible bonds rose last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 2.31% for the whole week, the median price rose by 2.23%, the arithmetic average parity increased by 2.86%, and the overall market conversion premium rate increased by 0.09% compared to the previous week [2][9]. - After a very short - term adjustment, the equity market rose again, and the convertible bond market performed better. As of last Friday, the average price of convertible bonds was close to 145 yuan, and the median market price reached 130 yuan, both at the highest levels since 2023. In the short term, there are no obvious negative factors in the equity market. In the convertible bond market, although the bond - bottom protection has decreased, the current valuation is slightly lower than in August 2022, and the bond market interest rate is much lower. The supply - demand pattern can still strongly support convertible bonds, and the probability of a significant short - term adjustment is low, but more attention should be paid to bond selection [3][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Focus (August 4 - August 8, 2025) Stock Market - The equity market generally rose last week. The Shanghai Composite Index returned above 3,600 points. The military industry sector was affected by the approaching military parade on September 3, and the non - ferrous metals sector was driven by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and increased rare - earth exports in July. The pharmaceutical sector with high previous gains saw a decline in sentiment [1][8]. - By industry, most Shenwan primary industries rose. National defense and military industry (+5.93%), non - ferrous metals (+5.78%), machinery and equipment (+5.37%), comprehensive (+4.32%), and textile and apparel (+4.23%) led the gains, while pharmaceutical biology (-0.84%), computer (-0.41%), commercial retail (-0.38%), and social services (-0.11%) performed poorly [9]. Bond Market - The bond market was generally volatile last week. The new VAT regulations on the previous Friday had no significant impact. Although the central bank conducted net withdrawals for several consecutive days, the overnight capital price remained low, and the capital environment was relatively loose. The impact of the stock - bond seesaw effect was weak, and there were even days when stocks, bonds, and commodities all rose. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.69% on Friday, down 1.68bp from the previous week [1][9]. Convertible Bond Market - Most individual convertible bonds rose last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 2.31% for the whole week, the median price rose by 2.23%, the arithmetic average parity increased by 2.86%, and the overall market conversion premium rate increased by 0.09% compared to the previous week [2][9]. - By industry, most sectors in the convertible bond market rose. Beauty care (+4.18%), non - ferrous metals (+4.16%), machinery and equipment (+4.16%), and national defense and military industry (+3.70%) led the gains, while pharmaceutical biology (+0.76%), building materials (+1.09%), social services (+1.28%), and food and beverage (+1.44%) performed poorly [12]. - At the individual bond level, bonds such as Jian (related to the Xinzang Railway), Julong (PEEK materials), Gaoce (photovoltaic & robotics), Dongjie (robotics), and Borui (innovative drugs) had the highest increases; bonds such as Qizheng (innovative drugs), Haopeng (solid - state batteries & announced forced redemption), Saili (innovative drugs), Yingji (military industry & announced forced redemption), and Tianlu (Yaxia Hydropower concept) had the highest decreases [2][13]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 422.376 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 84.475 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [17]. Views and Strategies (August 11 - August 15, 2025) - After a very short - term adjustment, the equity market rose again, and the convertible bond market performed better. The CSI Convertible Bond Index outperformed the major stock indices, and the convertible bond valuation further increased. As of last Friday, the average price of convertible bonds was close to 145 yuan, and the median market price reached 130 yuan, both at the highest levels since 2023 [3][19]. - In the short term, there are no obvious negative factors in the equity market. In the convertible bond market, although the bond - bottom protection has decreased, the current valuation is slightly lower than in August 2022, and the bond market interest rate is much lower. The supply - demand pattern can still strongly support convertible bonds. The increase in the convertible bond holdings of public funds in July and the continuous expansion of the convertible bond ETF scale since late July reflect the strong allocation demand for convertible bonds. The probability of a significant short - term adjustment is low, but more attention should be paid to bond selection [3][19]. - In terms of direction, as the interim reports of listed companies are being released, there is still room for growth in low - priced stocks of equity - biased underlying stocks with good performance. It is recommended to find high - quality targets in sectors such as computing power, domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment and materials, components of humanoid robots, AI applications benefiting from large - model iterations, and solid - state battery materials. Dividend assets led by banks have relatively lagged behind in this round of the market, so it is recommended to pay attention to the allocation value of dividend sectors such as banks, water services, and gas. In addition, pay attention to opportunities in high - quality new and sub - new convertible bonds [4][20]. Valuation Overview - As of last Friday (August 8, 2025), for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 44.32%, 34.38%, 25.28%, 18.4%, 12.37%, and 7.79% respectively, at the 94%/92%, 94%/95%, 90%/90%, 87%/84%, 80%/71%, and 80%/59% percentile levels since 2010/2021 [21]. - For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan was - 2.72%, at the 0%/0% percentile level since 2010/2021 [21]. - The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 37.94%, at the 72%/56% percentile level since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was - 9.09%, at the 45%/43% percentile level since 2010/2021 [21]. Primary Market Tracking - Last week (August 4 - August 8, 2025), the Weidao Convertible Bond was issued, and no convertible bonds were listed. The underlying stock, Weidao Nano (688147.SH), belongs to the power equipment industry, with a market value of 15.315 billion yuan as of August 8. The company is a global high - end micro - nano equipment manufacturer for semiconductors and pan - semiconductors. The scale of the issued convertible bonds is 1.17 billion yuan, with a credit rating of AA, and the issuance was announced on August 4. After deducting the issuance fees, the funds are planned to be invested in projects such as the construction of a semiconductor thin - film deposition equipment intelligent factory, the expansion of a research laboratory, and the replenishment of working capital [29]. - As of the announcements on August 8, there are no convertible bonds announced for issuance or listing in the next week (August 11 - August 15, 2025). Last week, there was 1 company with a board of directors' plan (Sanxin Medical), and no companies passed the exchange's approval for registration, the listing committee's review, the exchange's acceptance, or the shareholders' meeting [30]. - As of now, there are 74 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 116.62 billion yuan. Among them, 4 have been approved for registration, with a total scale of 3.56 billion yuan, and 4 have passed the listing committee's review, with a total scale of 8.98 billion yuan [30].

Macro Strategy - The report analyzes three historical cases of capacity adjustment over a century, providing insights into supply-demand rebalancing: the long depression in the late 19th century in Europe and America, the 1929 Great Depression, and Japan's capacity reduction in the 1970s and 1990s [1][11] - Key conclusions include that capacity imbalance can lead to a negative feedback loop lasting 20-30 years if uncontrolled, and government intervention is more effective than non-intervention in addressing capacity imbalances [1][11] - Effective supply-demand rebalancing requires simultaneous efforts in controlling capacity, restoring credit, and stabilizing employment, rather than relying solely on supply or demand policies [1][11] Fixed Income - The report discusses the micro-guided convertible bond, which has a total issuance scale of 1.17 billion yuan, with net proceeds used for the construction of an intelligent factory for semiconductor thin film deposition equipment [2][12] - The expected listing price range for the convertible bond is between 128.84 and 143.03 yuan, with a predicted subscription rate of 0.0036% [2][12] - The company, Micro-Guided Nano, has shown steady revenue growth with a compound annual growth rate of 71.44% from 2020 to 2024, achieving 2.7 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 60.74% [2][12] Industry Analysis - The report on Chuanfeng Power highlights the company's leading position in the all-terrain vehicle and motorcycle markets, with three major business segments experiencing rapid growth [3][14] - The investment recommendation maintains a "buy" rating for Chuanfeng Power, anticipating higher valuations due to its significant market position and growth potential across its business segments [3][14] - Jiuhua Tourism is positioned to leverage its unique cultural and natural resources, with projected net profits of 220 million, 240 million, and 270 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [4][14] Company-Specific Insights - Crystal Technology has secured a significant contract for drug discovery, with potential payments exceeding 5.89 billion USD, indicating strong future growth prospects [5][16] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 552 million, 924 million, and 1.503 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a forecasted return to profitability by 2027 [5][16] - Zhongchong Co., a leader in the pet food industry, reported a 42.6% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong growth in its proprietary brands [17][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Microguide Convertible Bonds (118058.SH) started online subscription on August 6, 2025, with a total issuance scale of 1.17 billion yuan. After deducting issuance fees, the net raised funds will be used for the construction project of an intelligent factory for semiconductor thin - film deposition equipment [3]. - The current bond floor valuation is 99.08 yuan, and the YTM is 2.25%. The conversion parity is 100.6 yuan, and the parity premium rate is - 0.62%. The bond floor protection is good, and the terms of the convertible bonds are standard. The dilution rate of the total share capital is 7.03%, with relatively small dilution pressure on the equity [3]. - It is expected that the listing price of Microguide Convertible Bonds on the first day will be between 128.84 - 143.03 yuan, and the subscription rate is expected to be 0.0036%. It is recommended to actively subscribe [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Basic Information - The issuance and subscription schedule of Microguide Convertible Bonds is from August 4 to August 12, 2025, including steps such as publishing announcements, online roadshows, priority subscription for original shareholders, and online subscription [9]. - The basic terms of Microguide Convertible Bonds include a 6 - year term, AA/AA credit rating, a face value of 100 yuan, specific coupon rates from the first to the sixth year, and corresponding down - revision, redemption, and put - back terms [10]. - The raised funds will be used for the construction of an intelligent factory for semiconductor thin - film deposition equipment, the expansion of a R & D laboratory, and supplementary working capital [11]. - The bond - related indicators show a pure bond value of 99.08 yuan, a pure bond premium rate of 0.93%, and a pure bond YTM of 2.25%. The equity - related indicators show a conversion parity of 100.63 yuan and a parity premium rate of - 0.62% [11]. 2. Investment Subscription Suggestions - By referring to comparable targets in terms of parity, rating, and scale, as well as recent listed convertible bonds and an established empirical model, it is expected that the conversion premium rate of Microguide Convertible Bonds on the first - day of listing will be around 35%, and the listing price will be between 128.84 - 143.03 yuan [14][15]. - It is expected that the priority subscription ratio of original shareholders will be 74.28%, and the online subscription rate will be 0.0036% [16]. 3. Analysis of the Underlying Stock's Fundamental Aspects 3.1 Financial Data Analysis - Microguide Nano is a global high - end micro - nano equipment manufacturer in the semiconductor and pan - semiconductor fields. Its products have achieved large - scale industrial applications in the semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [17]. - Since 2020, the company's revenue has steadily increased, with a compound growth rate of 71.44% from 2020 - 2024. In 2024, the revenue was 2.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 60.74%. In Q1 2025, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 510 million yuan and 84 million yuan respectively [18][19]. - The company's revenue mainly comes from photovoltaic and semiconductor equipment, with an annual adjustment in product structure. The proportion of photovoltaic sales revenue in the main business revenue has slightly decreased, while the sales scale of semiconductors has gradually increased [20]. - The company's net sales margin has recently rebounded, the gross sales margin has decreased, the sales expense ratio has decreased, the financial expense ratio has recently increased, and the management expense ratio has recently decreased [24]. 3.2 Company Highlights - Microguide Nano is a leader in providing efficient battery technology and equipment. It emphasizes R & D, has formed 11 core technologies in the thin - film deposition technology field centered around ALD technology, and has achieved deep integration of scientific and technological achievements and the industry [29].