投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 1 月 27 日 橡胶甲醇原油 风险溢价减弱 能化震荡收低 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 期货研究报告 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 24 橡胶甲醇原油 | 日报 核心观点 橡胶：本周二国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏弱， 略微收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 16200 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收低 0.31%至 16205 元/吨。5-9 月差 ...

宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 期货研究报告 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 24 2026 年 1 月 26 日 橡胶甲醇原油 地缘风险主导 能化再度走强 核心观点 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡上行， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心小幅上移至 16230 元/吨一线上方运 行。收盘时期价略微收涨 0.43%至 16230 元/吨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 偏多情绪主导 能化震荡偏强 核心观点 橡胶：本周四国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡企稳， 小幅收涨的走势，盘中期价重心小幅上移至 15850 元/吨一线下方运 行。收盘时期价小幅收涨 1.12%至 15850 元/吨。5-9 月差升水幅度扩 大至 55 元/吨。随着前期利空因素逐渐消化，沪胶期货转入多空分歧 阶段，预计后市或维持震荡企稳的走势。 甲醇：本周四国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡企稳， 小幅收涨的走势，期价最高上涨至 2260 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2212 元 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 甲醇：本周二国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现放量减仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，期价最高上涨至 2219 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2183 元/吨，收盘时小幅收低 1.21%至 2206 元/吨。5-9 月差贴水幅度缩小 至 19 元/吨。处在多空分歧阶段，甲醇期货或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 1 月 20 日 橡胶甲醇原油 偏空因素主导 能化偏弱运行 核心观点 橡胶：本周二国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Views of the Report - On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating downward, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to below the 16,000 yuan/ton line, closing down 1.33% at 15,995 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread widened to 30 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices may maintain a moderately strong oscillation pattern [6]. - On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The contract price rose to a maximum of 2,318 yuan/ton and fell to a minimum of 2,254 yuan/ton, closing down 0.53% at 2,273 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread converged to 1 yuan/ton. With differences between bulls and bears emerging, methanol futures maintained a stable oscillation pattern [6]. - On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures 2603 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The contract price rose to a maximum of 460.5 yuan/barrel and fell to a minimum of 443.4 yuan/barrel, closing down 0.69% at 446.6 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East cooled down, the crude oil market gave back its premium, and the weak supply - demand fundamentals took the lead. In the short term, oil prices maintained an oscillation pattern [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons or 4.48%. Among them, the general trade inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.80%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16% [8]. - As of January 9, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will recover in the next cycle [8]. - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The annual automobile export exceeded 7 million vehicles, reaching 7.098 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. The total sales volume of the heavy - truck market in 2025 reached 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.38%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.20%, a month - on - month slight increase of 2.64%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.72%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0424 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 8,700 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 18,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 139,200 tons [10]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.05%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.65%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.30%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.51%. The acetic acid operating rate was 81.89%, a week - on - week slight increase of 4.28%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.12%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.65%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.33 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.17%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 30 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decline of 264 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.1593 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 9,300 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 40,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 402,300 tons. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 18,600 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 49,000 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 80,500 tons [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.753 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 58,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 272,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 422.4 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.391 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.767 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.585 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 745,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 413.7 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 214,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 95.3%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 3.6 percentage points [12]. - As of January 6, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 57,352 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 7,239 contracts and a slight decrease of 1,419 contracts or 2.41% compared with the December average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 120,686 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 6,220 contracts and a significant increase of 15,227 contracts or 14.44% compared with the December average [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,995 yuan/ton | - 165 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | +165 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,280 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,273 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | +7 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 425.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 446.6 yuan/barrel | - 1.4 yuan/barrel | - 21.2 yuan/barrel | +1.1 yuan/barrel | [13] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, inventory, and operating rate trends, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [14][16][18]