其背后，是体系化的产品力与完整的矩阵。深蓝汽车全球交付突破50万辆，成为央企新能源销量的"扛把子"；启源 Q07首月订单超过3万辆，启源A07焕新上市后单月销量一度突破8000辆；阿维塔连续五个月销量破万辆，7月同比增 长178%。 深蓝的科技运动气质、启源的国民普适定位、阿维塔的新豪华标签，三大品牌覆盖不同人群，实现了"多点开花"，而 非依赖单一爆款。 7月29日，中国长安汽车集团正式挂牌成立。这一调整不仅是组织架构上的优化，也意味着长安汽车在战略和资源协 同上的进一步完善。 对外，它能够为产业链合作伙伴提供更清晰的预期；对内，则有助于在复杂市场环境中保持稳定的节奏。 未来，长安汽车将继续围绕新能源"香格里拉"、智能化"北斗天枢"、全球化"海纳百川"等战略计划推进落地，同时加 快五"新"长安行动的实施。从产品研发到海外产能布局，这些长期投入在新的集团架构下将获得更有力的支持，也为 企业的持续发展奠定基础。 这种体系化的爆款制造能力，让长安汽车具备了在规模和利润之间同时获益的可能。于是我们看到，毛利率从去年同 期的13.8%提升到14.58%，这背后既有产品力的支撑，也有结构优化带来的回报。 如果再放眼海外， ...

| 日期 | 2025/8/25 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 13.10 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 16.35/11.32 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,298.75 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,082.13 | | 总股本(亿股) | 99.14 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 82.61 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 66.85 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 长安汽车 沪深300 相关研究报告 《Q1 业绩有所增长，新车密集上市销 量增长可期—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.4.29 汽车/乘用车 长安汽车（000625.SZ） Q2 业绩有所承压，新央企集团成立发展可期 2025 年 08 月 25 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 司 研 究 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 《2024Q4 业绩高增，以三大计划为引 领开启新车周期—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.4.15 《Q3 业绩有所承压，新车密集上市业 绩改善可期—公司信 ...

我们认为，新长安集团的成立有望为公司发展注入新央企动能，而作为央企集团高层集体增持下属上市 公司股票的首例，此举彰显高层对公司长期价值和未来发展前景的认可和信心。展望未来，我们认为新 央企长安或在决策效率和速度等方面实现改善，并有望在对外合作等方面更加深入。 盈利预测与估值 公司25H1 实现营收726.9 亿元，同比-5%，其中汽车销售收入达695 亿元，同比-5%；归母净利润23 亿 元，同比-19%。Q2 实现营收385 亿元，同环比-3%/+13%；归母净利润9 亿元，同环比-44%/-31%。季 度业绩整体符合预期，考虑到新车深蓝S09、启源Q07 上市放量，规模效应有望提升新能源车盈利能 力，维持"买入"评级。 公司新能源渗透率提升至约50%，25Q2 总毛利率同环比双增公司25Q2 销售新车65 万辆，同比+1%。得 益于启源Q07 等新车的上市表现，公司25Q2 销售新能源乘用车达23 万辆，同环比+53%/35%，新能源 渗透率由24Q2 的33%提升至25Q2 的50%。受公司产品结构调整和规模效应释放等的影响，25Q2 公司 毛利率为15.2%，同环比+2.0/+1.3pct。费用端，2 ...

Report Overview - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Key Points 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate futures market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The market's hype about the mining end in Yichun has cooled over time. The focus of the spot market has shifted slightly downward, with the price of electric carbon dropping by 150 to 71,200. The downstream production of cathodes and cells is growing optimistically, and procurement demand has increased, but actual transactions are mainly for essential needs due to the strengthening basis. The market is cautious and waiting for the upstream lithium resource production suspension situation to be clarified, so short-term cautious observation is recommended [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures market rose and then fell. The market hype about the mining end in Yichun has cooled. The spot market focus has shifted slightly downward, with the electric carbon price dropping by 150 to 71,200. The downstream production of cathodes and cells is growing optimistically, and procurement demand has increased, but actual transactions are mainly for essential needs due to the strengthening basis. The market is cautious and waiting for the upstream lithium resource production suspension situation to be clarified, so short-term cautious observation is recommended [12]. 3.2 Industry News - Chang'an Qiyuan announced its new car sales in July 2025, with 28,568 vehicles delivered in July and cumulative sales exceeding 190,000 from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 30%. The cumulative sales of Qiyuan Q07 exceeded 40,000, and Qiyuan A06 will be officially launched in the second half of the year [13]. - Beijing New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. produced 10,745 vehicles in July 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.79%, and sold 10,280 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 6.38%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 78,754 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 162.05%, and the cumulative sales were 77,432 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 98.58% [13]. - On August 1, 2025, Tieling Economic Development Zone signed a contract with Guosheng Energy Co., Ltd., with a total investment of 3 billion yuan and an area of 230 mu. The industrial park will be built in two phases to create a complete industrial chain, including the production and recycling of positive and negative electrode materials for high-performance solid-state batteries, cell manufacturing, and Pack lines. The project will also enter cutting-edge fields such as heterojunction tandem perovskite and new energy high-end equipment R & D and manufacturing [13].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The conference call discusses **Changan Automobile** and the **automobile industry**, particularly focusing on the electric vehicle (EV) segment and the company's restructuring efforts. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Performance Forecast**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of approximately **80 billion** this year and **110 billion** next year, with current valuations at less than **15 times** this year's earnings and around **10 times** next year's earnings, indicating a favorable price-performance ratio [1] 2. **Restructuring Announcement**: In June, Changan Automobile announced the restructuring of **Ice Group**, which received approval from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). The automotive business will be separated into an independent state-owned enterprise, while Changan will maintain a **35.04%** indirect stake in the new entity [1] 3. **Focus on New Energy Brands**: The restructuring allows the company to concentrate on its three major new energy brands: **Deep Blue**, **Qiyuan**, and **Avita**, facilitating better resource integration and overseas expansion [2] 4. **Sales Performance of Deep Blue**: Deep Blue's sales have stabilized at around **21,000** units per month, primarily driven by models S05 and S07, with the S09 model contributing to incremental growth [2] 5. **Market Potential**: The market for new energy vehicles priced between **100,000** and **150,000** is substantial, with an annual passenger vehicle market of approximately **7 million** units. The penetration rate of electric vehicles has increased from **45%** to between **50%** and **55%** [3] 6. **Comparison with Competitors**: Deep Blue's product line is comparable to that of **Galaxy**, with overlapping price segments and vehicle types. The performance metrics of Deep Blue are competitive, suggesting strong growth potential [3] 7. **Sales Growth Expectations**: Deep Blue is expected to see steady sales growth, with a potential turnaround to profitability if monthly sales reach **30,000** units [4] 8. **Qiyuan's Market Position**: Qiyuan benefits from Changan's established customer base, with previous models achieving significant sales. The recent launch of Q07 has improved overall sales performance [5][6] 9. **Avita's Performance**: Avita, positioned as a mid-to-high-end brand, is expected to improve profitability with the launch of model 06, which has received positive market feedback [7] 10. **Export Growth**: Changan's export business, particularly in fuel vehicles and light commercial vehicles, is performing well and is expected to contribute positively to overall profits [8] 11. **Profitability Projections**: The company anticipates achieving a gross margin of over **15%** and a net profit margin of around **4.5%**, with net profits projected at **80 billion** this year and potentially increasing to **110 billion** next year [9] 12. **Risks**: Key risks include lower-than-expected new vehicle sales and significant increases in raw material prices [9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The restructuring and focus on new energy brands are expected to enhance operational efficiency and market competitiveness, which may not be fully appreciated by investors currently [2][3] - The potential for growth in the West African market is highlighted, indicating a broader opportunity for expansion beyond domestic sales [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with retail sales of narrow passenger cars reaching 10.901 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [1] - Domestic brands have captured a significant market share of 64%, indicating their dominance in the Chinese market [1] - BYD leads the sales chart with 2.146 million units sold, while Geely has seen a remarkable growth rate of 47% year-on-year [1][12] - New energy vehicle sales are on the rise, with companies like Leap Motor and XPeng showing significant growth [1][19] Group 1: Overall Market Performance - As of June 2025, the cumulative retail sales of narrow passenger cars in China reached 10.901 million units, reflecting a 10.8% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Domestic brands have increased their market share to 64%, solidifying their position in the market [1] - BYD has achieved a sales volume of 2.146 million units, maintaining its position as the top seller [12] - Geely's sales have surged by 47%, prompting the company to raise its annual sales target to 3 million units [1][12] Group 2: Performance of New Energy and Emerging Brands - Leap Motor has emerged as a leader among new energy vehicle manufacturers, with monthly sales nearing 50,000 units [1] - XPeng has also shown impressive growth, selling more vehicles in the first half of 2025 than in the entire previous year [1] - The new energy vehicle segment is experiencing rapid growth, with companies like BYD and Geely leading the charge [12][19] Group 3: Traditional Automakers' Performance - Some traditional automakers are showing signs of recovery, with brands like FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen reporting positive year-on-year growth [1][9] - FAW Toyota has seen a significant increase of 16% in sales, indicating a rebound in the joint venture segment [1][9] - However, brands like GAC are struggling, with a decline in sales, highlighting the challenges faced by traditional automakers [1][9] Group 4: Export Performance - SAIC has become a leader in overseas sales, with 494,000 units sold, accounting for nearly 25% of its total sales [10] - Changan has also made strides in international markets, with overseas sales exceeding 300,000 units, a growth of over 45% [10] - GAC has reported a 45.6% increase in overseas sales, completing 55% of its annual export target [10]

Group 1: Traditional Automakers Performance - BYD remains the sales leader with 2.146 million units sold in the first half of 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of 33% and a strong export growth of 80.6% [2][3] - Geely Automotive shows impressive growth with a total sales of over 1.4 million units, marking a 47% year-on-year increase, and its new energy vehicle sales have doubled [3][4] - Changan Automobile reaches its highest sales in nearly eight years with 1.355 million units sold, reflecting a 2% year-on-year growth, while its new energy vehicle sales grow by 48.8% [4] - Chery Group achieves a total sales of approximately 1.26 million units, a 14.5% increase, with new energy vehicle sales rising by 98.6% [4][6] - Great Wall Motors experiences slight growth with total sales of about 569,000 units, a 1.84% increase, although some brands like Ora and Tank show declines [6] Group 2: New Forces in the Automotive Market - Leap Motor tops the new energy vehicle segment with a remarkable 155.7% growth, delivering 221,700 units, surpassing Li Auto for the first time [7][9] - Xiaomi Automotive shows significant potential with a staggering 456% growth, delivering over 150,000 units, and aims for a revised target of 350,000 units [11] - Xpeng Motors also demonstrates strong performance with a 279% increase in sales, delivering 197,200 units [10][12] - NIO achieves a 30.6% year-on-year growth with over 110,000 units delivered [12] - Huawei's AITO brand, under the new forces, faces challenges with a heavy reliance on the Wenjie brand, which accounts for 80% of its total sales [10] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The competition in the automotive market is intensifying, with a clear focus on new energy and smart technology as the main battleground [13] - Traditional and new automakers are accelerating their product and technology deployments to prepare for the second half of the year [13]

Core Viewpoint - Changan Automobile has achieved a remarkable sales figure of 1.355 million units in the first half of 2025, marking an eight-year high, amidst fierce competition in the new energy vehicle market and increasing pressure from foreign brands [1][10] Group 1: Sales Performance and Market Strategy - The sales of Changan's new energy vehicles reached 450,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, equivalent to half the total sales of three leading new energy brands in the same period [1] - Changan has established a global presence with plans for 20 overseas factories, having already built and put into operation 9, covering over 100 countries [1] - The company is innovating at a rapid pace, generating 19 patents daily, with 70% of its 20,000 global patents being invention patents [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements and Product Development - Changan's strategic shift focuses on building technological barriers rather than just competing on production scale, with a dual strategy in the new energy sector [3] - The company is set to launch a solid-state battery prototype by the end of 2025, indicating a commitment to technological innovation [3] - The Deep Blue S09 and Q07 models showcase advanced technologies, achieving significant fuel efficiency and long-range capabilities, leading to strong market performance [3][6] Group 3: Globalization and Localized Production - The "Haina Baichuan" plan emphasizes Changan's global strategy, with the establishment of the Thailand Rayong factory as a key step in its overseas expansion [4] - This factory not only serves the ASEAN market but also integrates local R&D to optimize vehicle performance for regional conditions, achieving a 60% localization rate [4] - Changan's approach combines production, R&D, and supply chain integration, marking a shift from product export to ecosystem output [4][8] Group 4: Brand Development and Global Influence - Changan is actively enhancing its global brand presence, with multiple new models launched in Europe and participation in international standards development [9] - The company has integrated ESG principles into its global strategy, achieving significant sustainability milestones at its overseas facilities [9] - Changan's journey from a domestic leader to a global brand reflects its commitment to high-quality development and innovation in the automotive industry [10]

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, eight major automotive groups reported a total sales volume of 11.18 million vehicles, all achieving year-on-year growth [1][2] - BYD maintained its leading position with over 2.14 million units sold, followed closely by SAIC Motor with over 2.05 million units [1][3] - Geely adjusted its annual sales target upward by 11% after achieving a 47% completion rate in the first half [1][6] Group Performance - **BYD**: Sold 2.146 million vehicles, a 33% increase year-on-year, with overseas sales reaching 472,000 units, up 132% [3][4] - **SAIC Motor**: Achieved sales of 2.053 million vehicles, a 12.4% increase, with a retail delivery of 2.207 million units [4][5] - **China FAW**: Reported sales of 1.57 million vehicles, a 6.1% increase, with a 46% target completion rate [6][10] - **Geely**: Sold 1.409 million vehicles, a 47% increase, with a significant rise in new energy vehicle sales [6][7] - **Changan**: Achieved sales of 1.355 million vehicles, marking a historical high, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 48.8% [8][9] - **Chery**: Sold 1.26 million vehicles, a 14.5% increase, with a strong export performance [9][10] - **BAIC Group**: Reported sales of 817,000 vehicles, a 6% increase, with a notable growth in its own brand sales [10] - **Great Wall Motors**: Achieved sales of 570,000 vehicles, a slight increase of 1.8%, but faced a decline in overseas sales [10] Target Achievement Rates - **Geely**: Highest target completion rate at 47% after adjusting its annual target [6][7] - **China FAW and SAIC Motor**: Both achieved a target completion rate of 46% [1][6] - **Changan**: Completed 45% of its sales target [1][8] - **Chery**: Achieved a target completion rate of 40% [1][9] - **BYD**: Completed 39% of its annual target [1][3]

Summary of Changan Automobile Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on Changan Automobile, a key player in the automotive industry, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector. The company aims to expand its market presence both domestically and internationally, with specific targets for its various brands and segments [2][6]. Core Points and Arguments - **Sales Targets**: Changan Automobile has set a target of 1 million units for its new energy vehicle (NEV) segment and a minimum target of 700,000 units for its overseas sales due to international market conditions [2][7]. - **Product Launches**: The company plans to launch over 19 new products across five major regions, aiming to expand its market capacity to 30 million channels and sales opportunities [2][8]. - **International Expansion**: Changan is focusing on markets in Europe, Southeast Asia, and South America, with specific plans to enter Brazil and other new markets [2][7][8]. - **Brand Performance**: The Deep Blue and Avita brands are performing well, with Deep Blue targeting a price range above 300,000 yuan and aiming for profitability by 2025 [2][11]. - **Production Capacity**: By the end of the year, Changan's overseas production capacity is expected to reach 460,000 units, including contributions from its Thailand factory and KD projects in Kazakhstan [2][8]. Additional Important Content - **Response to Tariff Risks**: Changan is actively addressing potential tariff risks by optimizing its global supply chain and enhancing communication with local governments [2][9]. - **Market Competition**: The company is responding to price wars in the mid-to-low-end NEV market by improving product competitiveness and accelerating model updates, with plans to release at least two updated versions annually [2][12]. - **Inventory Management**: Domestic inventory levels are stable and low, typically not exceeding two months, while overseas inventory is less significant due to longer logistics times [2][13]. - **Corporate Restructuring**: The restructuring of Changan's parent company into a new central enterprise group aims to improve operational efficiency and support the company's market-oriented transformation and international expansion strategy [2][14]. - **Joint Ventures**: Changan Ford aims to maintain a production and sales scale of 200,000 units while adapting to changes in the Chinese market. Changan Mazda is also transitioning to align with market demands, supported by Changan's technology and product offerings [2][15]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Changan Automobile's strategic direction, market challenges, and growth opportunities.