在全球 新能源 产业从狂飙突进转向理性竞争的背景下， 星源材质 (300568)作为锂电隔膜领域的全球头 部企业，正面临周期性调整与技术路线变革的双重夹击。尽管其凭借干法隔膜市占率全球第一的行业地 位和全球化布局曾备受资本市场青睐，但近年来财务数据的恶化、海外扩张的隐忧以及 固态电池 技术 路线的不确定性，已逐渐显露出这家企业的深层风险。在传统业务盈利能力持续承压、新兴领域尚未兑 现预期的现实下，星源材质的成长逻辑正遭遇严峻考验。 作为衡量企业核心竞争力的关键指标，星源材质的毛利率变化揭示出其经营层面的系统性风险。2024年 公司毛利率从2022年的45.57%骤降至28.07%，2025年上半年进一步下探至26.50%，这一水平已逼近行 业盈亏平衡线。更值得警惕的是，这种盈利能力的恶化并非短期波动，而是源于行业供需失衡引发的系 统性价格战——2024年干法、湿法及涂覆隔膜平均售价同比分别下滑38.6%、23.6%和39.2%，远超原材 料成本降幅。在产能过剩与价格竞争的双重挤压下，公司陷入"增收不增利"的困境：2024年营收同比增 长17.5%至35.06亿元，但归母净利润同比下滑36.9%至3.71亿元； ...

中国银河（601881）证券股份有限公司曾韬,段尚昌近期对星源材质（300568）进行研究并发布了研究报 告《量增价稳，固态产品进展超预期》，给予星源材质买入评级。 星源材质 事件：2025H1公司实现营收19.0亿元，同比+14.8%，归母净利1.0亿元，同比-58.5%，扣非净利0.44亿元， 同比-75.4%；毛利率25.1%，同比-6.43pcts，净利率6.4%，同比-8.22pcts。25Q2公司实现营收10.1亿元， 同/环比+7.4%/+13.5%；归母净利0.54亿元,同/环比-60.2%/+14.9%；扣非净利0.09亿元,同/环 比-88.4%/-73.5%；毛利率24.7%，同/环比-3.4/-0.8pcts；净利率7.0%，同/环比-7.4/+1.4pcts；业绩符合预 期。 量增价稳，反内卷下增长可期。公司25H1采取供价保量策略，仍受益于下游景气度实现出货高增长，预 计出货量约22亿平，同增38%，02环比微增。全年看需求态势向好，公司佛山工厂爬坡顺利、马来投产等 积极因素下，我们预计公司出货或超50亿平。价格层面我们测算Q2单平均价0.9元，环增10%+，主要系湿 法占比提升及 ...

Group 1 - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 continues to be under pressure, with revenue of 1.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 100 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.53% [1] - The gross margin is 25.09%, down 6.43 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is 6.40%, down 8.22 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The period expense ratio is 22.04%, up 3.66 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to a 4.85 percentage point increase in financial expense ratio [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.009 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.43% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.43%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 54 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60.22% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.03% [2] - The gross margin for Q2 is 24.71%, down 3.42 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.82 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company is strategically positioning itself in the solid-state battery sector, having signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Ruigu New Materials to jointly develop high-performance solid-state electrolyte membranes and related products [2] Group 3 - Recent discussions among key dry-process diaphragm manufacturers, including the company, have led to five consensus points aimed at restoring profitability, including price discipline and capacity management [3] - The ongoing anti-involution policies are expected to help the industry return to rational competition, which will assist the company in gradually recovering its profitability [3] - The company is the second-largest lithium battery diaphragm manufacturer globally and is expected to benefit from the solid-state battery development opportunities as profitability improves [3]

星源材质（300568） 2025 半年报点评：单平盈利见底，布局固态 电解质膜打造第二成长曲线 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,013 | 3,541 | 4,139 | 5,078 | 6,093 | | 同比（%） | 4.62 | 17.52 | 16.90 | 22.68 | 19.99 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 576.33 | 363.83 | 402.69 | 505.21 | 689.65 | | 同比（%） | (19.87) | (36.87) | 10.68 | 25.46 | 36.51 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.43 | 0.27 | 0.30 | 0.38 | 0.51 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.78 | 45.58 | 41.19 | 32.83 | 24.05 | [Table_Ta ...

Core Viewpoint - The report on Xingyuan Material (300568) highlights its leadership in the diaphragm industry and its proactive global expansion strategy, with a buy rating and a target price of 14.58 yuan [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Xingyuan Material is a leading domestic manufacturer of diaphragms, with over 20 years of experience in the industry and the first company in China to export both dry and wet diaphragm technologies [2]. - The company is projected to achieve a 17.6% market share in diaphragm shipments in 2024, maintaining its position as the second-largest player in China for five consecutive years [2]. - The management team possesses extensive industry experience and strategic capabilities, actively pursuing global expansion, including production in Sweden and a planned 20 billion square meters capacity in Malaysia by mid-2025 [2]. Group 2: Product Development and Innovation - The company is embracing the solid-state battery trend by launching multiple solid-state diaphragm products, supported by favorable policies [2]. - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed with Zhongke Shenlan Huize, which will lead to the establishment of a GWh solid-state battery production line by Q3 2025 [2]. - The company has developed innovative rigid skeleton diaphragms and various polymer electrolyte diaphragms, and has the capability to produce oxide/polymer solid-state electrolyte powders [2]. Group 3: Strategic Investments - In response to the AI era, the company is acquiring high-quality overseas assets, including a partnership with Ferrotec to enhance collaboration in the semiconductor and new energy materials sectors [2]. - The company is positioning itself in emerging markets such as semiconductor and electronic skin technologies, which are expected to drive future growth [3]. Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 4.5 billion yuan in 2025, 5.4 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.8 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 430 million yuan, 540 million yuan, and 650 million yuan respectively [3]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.3 yuan, 0.4 yuan, and 0.5 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with price-to-earnings ratios of 38x, 30x, and 25x [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on structural alpha opportunities in various sectors, particularly in real estate and metals, as market conditions evolve and performance indicators shift [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - In June, major A-share indices experienced an overall increase, with the ChiNext index rising by 6.1% [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market showed a fluctuating upward trend due to improved overseas conditions and domestic risk appetite [4]. Group 2: Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is currently exhibiting weak beta, but structural highlights are emerging due to further regional and urban differentiation [5]. - From January to May 2025, the sales amount of commercial residential properties in key cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu) increased by 14.4% [5]. - The transaction volume and price of land in 30 core cities tracked by Everbright rose, with a transaction area increase of 15.6% and a floor price increase of 23.9% [5]. Group 3: Metals Sector - The price of electrolytic aluminum reached a three-month high, indicating potential recovery in the steel sector's profitability towards historical average levels [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions," which may positively impact steel companies [6]. Group 4: Copper Industry - LME copper inventory has dropped to a 22-month low, leading to tight copper supply outside the U.S. and a subsequent price increase due to short-covering [8]. - Domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline by 13% year-on-year from July to September, indicating a slowdown in demand [8]. Group 5: Semiconductor and Chemical Materials - The global semiconductor sales are projected to reach approximately $630.5 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of about 19.7% [9]. - The steady growth in the semiconductor market is expected to drive demand for semiconductor materials [9]. Group 6: Renewable Energy - The wind power sector is anticipated to see improved profitability due to stable pricing and cost reductions in components [10]. - The photovoltaic sector is expected to benefit from upcoming policies aimed at preventing excessive competition, with a focus on specific technologies and companies [10].

Overall Viewpoint - Wind power: The price of wind turbine units is stabilizing, and the trend towards larger units along with cost reductions in components will drive continuous improvement in profitability for the turbine segment through 2026. The 136 document reshapes the logic of new energy installations, as wind power has a favorable output curve, leading to a potential recovery in wind power development and power station sales. Short-term pressure is expected from June wind power bidding and Q2 performance, but the market is gradually digesting these issues, and expectations for improvement in related indicators are forming [2]. Component Segment - Attention is drawn to the trend of larger turbine units, particularly in the bearing segment, and investment opportunities in European offshore wind products. The current timing is crucial for performance realization [3]. Photovoltaics - This week, the price of polysilicon futures has rebounded due to news factors. After experiencing internal competition policies in Q4 2024 and a rush for installations in Q1 2025, the photovoltaic sector's debt repayment ability did not continue to deteriorate during Q1 2025. However, starting in May 2025, production and prices in the photovoltaic sector have declined, further worsening the sector's debt repayment and profitability. It is anticipated that supply or demand-side support policies will strengthen in the next phase, with a focus on BC cells, perovskite, silicon materials, and low-PB integrated companies [3]. Solid-State Batteries - The market for solid-state batteries has expanded to include copper foil, separators, and other segments, which are currently at low price levels and in distress, but may not have reversed yet. In the short term, there is a risk of a pullback in the solid-state battery sector. However, in the medium term, battery manufacturers are actively advancing semi-solid production lines and full solid-state experiments, leading to increased capital expenditure in the solid-state battery sector, supported by policies. Continuous attention is recommended for solid-state battery front and mid-process equipment, lithium sulfide, solid-state electrolyte membranes, and dry-process positive electrode technologies [3]. Energy Storage - There is a consensus in the market regarding the favorable outlook for large-scale energy storage in Europe and overseas commercial storage. However, there are differing views on the profitability improvement and demand rhythm for domestic large-scale storage following the 136 document. The good bidding data for large-scale storage in May-June is related to the "531" rush for installations and independent energy storage "land grabbing." The mid-term profitability improvement for large-scale storage relies on the construction of the electricity market and improved trading flexibility, while the peak-valley price difference remains cyclical. In the short term, large-scale storage still requires substantial subsidies, but the commercial model is expected to improve, necessitating continuous monitoring of large-scale storage bidding data changes in the second half of the year [4][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant advancements in solid-state battery technology, particularly focusing on QuantumScape's new production process for solid-state battery separators, which is expected to reshape the industry landscape [2][3][5] - QuantumScape's "Cobra" process has transitioned from experimental to industrial-scale production, enabling the manufacturing of battery separators at a rate of "hundreds of square meters per hour," positioning it for GWh-level annual production capacity [3][5][6] - The new manufacturing platform addresses key challenges in the production of ceramic separators, achieving a breakthrough in thermal processing speed, reportedly 25 times faster than previous generations, while reducing equipment footprint [5][6][7] Group 2 - The article discusses the increasing trend among domestic separator companies to enter the solid-state battery supply chain by focusing on "supporting membranes," although this may not be the ultimate solution to the industry's challenges [2][8] - Recent developments indicate that solid electrolyte base membranes are evolving from polymer systems to more complex sulfide systems, with companies like Ruigu New Materials announcing the launch of a hundred-ton production line for sulfide solid electrolytes [8][12] - The article emphasizes the need for separator companies to balance high porosity and large pore sizes with mechanical strength and thermal stability to avoid deformation risks during battery assembly [9][10][12] Group 3 - The article outlines the critical challenges in achieving tight contact between solid electrolyte materials and base membranes, which is essential for the performance of solid-state batteries [10][11][12] - Companies are exploring various solid electrolyte membrane technologies, including oxide and polymer composite types, to enhance battery safety and performance [11][12] - The current focus of separator companies on becoming "base membrane" suppliers is seen as a pragmatic approach, but the article suggests that true competitive advantage lies in mastering solid electrolyte materials and their integration within the entire battery system [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant milestone achieved by QuantumScape in integrating the Cobra separator manufacturing process into its benchmark battery product, which enhances production efficiency and reduces space requirements [6] - QuantumScape is deeply tied to the Volkswagen Group and focuses on the oxide solid-state electrolyte route, aiming for high energy density and scalable production [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of solid-state battery technology and suggests monitoring investment opportunities in the supply chain, particularly in oxide electrolyte materials [8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of 19.56% and an absolute return of 32.94% [4] Investment Highlights - QuantumScape's QSE-5 B solid-state cell has entered small-scale production, featuring a capacity of 5Ah and an energy density of 844 Wh/L or 301 Wh/kg, with rapid charging capabilities [8] - The report identifies several companies actively developing solid-state battery technologies, including Sanxiang New Materials, Xingyuan Materials, Enjie, and Changyang Technology, which are focusing on oxide electrolytes and solid-state electrolyte membranes [8] Related Research Reports - The report references multiple previous industry reports that discuss various investment opportunities within the battery sector, particularly in solid-state technologies and data center investments [5]

Core Viewpoint - QuantumScape (QS) has made significant advancements in solid-state battery technology by integrating its Cobra separator process into standard battery production lines, resulting in a 25-fold increase in thermal processing speed and reduced equipment footprint, leading to a stock price surge of over 30% [1][2]. Company Developments - QS's solid-state battery technology relies on a solid ceramic electrolyte separator that prevents contact between the anode and cathode while allowing lithium ions to move during charging and discharging. This technology utilizes lithium metal as the anode, which has ten times the energy density of metals currently used in batteries [1][2]. - The company emphasizes the importance of separator technology in its solid-state battery products, which allows for the replacement of traditional carbon or silicon anodes with lithium metal anodes, enhancing energy density [2]. Industry Context - The solid-state battery market is divided into semi-solid and fully solid-state batteries, with the latter being considered safer and capable of using higher energy density materials [2]. - Star Materials, a competitor in the A-share market, is also developing similar products and has established strategic partnerships to create high-performance solid electrolyte membranes and related products [3][4]. - The concept of a solid-state battery theoretically does not require a separator, but practical applications may necessitate a rigid framework to prevent battery deformation, leading to the development of functional membranes [3][4].