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山海:美元极强打压黄金,市场等待非农数据的冲击!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 03:08
Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the US dollar is suppressing gold prices, with the market awaiting the impact of non-farm payroll data [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Data and Trends - Recent data including ADP, unemployment claims, and PCE have been favorable for the dollar and unfavorable for gold, contributing to the dollar's significant rise this year, nearing the 100 mark [3][4] - Gold and silver have been under pressure, failing to establish a strong upward trend despite attempts at rebounds [3][4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to influence the relationship between the dollar and gold, with a focus on whether a negative correlation will emerge [3][5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with key resistance levels at 3315 and 3345, and support levels at 3280 and 3260 [4][5] - The market anticipates a range-bound movement for gold before the non-farm data release, with a trading range set between 3280 and 3315 [5] - The previous non-farm payroll figure was 147,000, with a forecast of 110,000, suggesting that if actual data aligns closely with predictions, the impact on gold may be limited [5] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold prices have shown a continuation of weak trends, with recent fluctuations failing to establish a clear upward trajectory [5] - The Shanghai gold contract is currently trading around 772, with a medium-term bullish outlook targeting 790 [5] - The silver market is also under pressure, with a critical support level at 36, and potential for a rebound if this level holds [6] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - International crude oil has successfully risen to 70, with previous long positions yielding significant profits [6] - The overall bullish trend in oil remains intact, with potential upward targets set at 72 or higher [6] - Domestic fuel oil has shown an upward trend, with a focus on maintaining positions above 3000 [7]
山海:本周数据众多,耐心等待黄金的多头延续!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-28 02:45
Group 1 - The overall trend for gold remains bullish despite recent fluctuations, with key resistance levels at 3355 and potential targets at 3380, 3400, and 3430 [2][3] - The market is expected to react to upcoming non-farm data, with a focus on the continuation of bullish or bearish trends following the data release [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has not shown significant downward momentum, with support around 3285 and resistance at 3400, suggesting a range-bound movement before data impacts [3][4] Group 2 - Domestic gold trading strategies have been adjusted, with previous positions taken at high points and new entries suggested around 776 for Shanghai gold and 770 for Rongtong gold, maintaining a bullish outlook [4] - International silver is expected to maintain its bullish trend as long as it does not break below 37.5, with trading opportunities around the 38 level [4] - Shanghai silver is also projected to follow a bullish trend, with key levels to watch at 9400 and 9550, indicating a preference for long positions [5] Group 3 - International crude oil has shown limited volatility, with support at 65 and potential upward movement if this level holds, targeting 68 as a breakout point [5] - Domestic fuel oil is in a similar state of low volatility, with a focus on maintaining long positions around 2850, anticipating a rise to 3000 and eventually 3200 [5]
山海:市场等待PCE数据公布,黄金多空均有机会!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-27 02:32
Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing volatility in gold prices, with both bullish and bearish opportunities available as traders await the release of PCE data, which may influence gold's movement [1][3]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold has shown significant oscillation this week, lacking a clear trend, making it challenging for mid to long-term analysts to secure profits without risking losses [3]. - The recent trading day saw gold prices rise to around 3350 before falling to a low of 3310, indicating a lack of strong directional movement [4]. - The overall trend for gold remains bullish as long as it does not drop below 3280, with key resistance levels at 3355 and support levels at 3310 and 3295 [4][5]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have not yet completed their upward movement, with expectations for further increases, particularly targeting around 37 [3][5]. - After a recent profit-taking at 35.2, silver has shown potential for further gains, with a current trading price around 36.7 and a target of 37 for potential short positions [5][6]. Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold prices have remained stable, with expectations for upward movement, particularly for Shanghai gold, which is projected to reach around 795 [5]. - The domestic silver market has also shown positive movement, with recent trades indicating a bullish trend as long as support at 35.2 holds [5][6]. Oil Market Overview - International crude oil has shown limited movement, maintaining a bullish trend with support at 64, but future price movements will depend on market news and developments [6]. - Domestic fuel oil has experienced adjustments but is still viewed as bullish in the long term, with potential targets of 3000 to 3200 [7].