炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 从纸面数据上看确实如此。在瓜子二手车近期发布的《2025 年二手车保值率榜单》中，尤其是燃油车 市场，传统合资品牌的经典车系依然具备极强的抗跌能力。燃油车三年保值率前十名中，丰田、本田品 牌占据四席，汉兰达、飞度、雅阁等经典车系的三年保值率仍然维持在65%以上。 而即便在新能源汽车整体加速贬值的背景下，小米SU7的1年保值率仍高达91.78%，理想MEGA同样跻 身保值榜前列。相比之下，部分传统豪华品牌在新能源领域的竞争力并未如预期般体现，宝马i3、 iX1、iX3等车系的一年保值率仅在45%左右。 商务部公布的，数据也显示，2025年1至11月，全国汽车以旧换新数量已超过1120万辆。与此同时，二 手车转籍率也一直处在较高水平，2025年10月更是达到33.1%的当期历史高位。 二手车市场如火如荼，但许多人在现实中的卖车境遇却大相径庭："榜单显示很保值，为什么真轮到我 卖车，报价却总是低一截？" 在卖二手车这件事上，很多人都忽视了一个真相。车是否好卖，与档次和价位无关，甚至保值率也并非 最主要的衡量指标。能否卖到最满意的心理价位，核心 ...

根据2025年12月中央经济工作会议释放的最新信号，2026年促进消费的政策方向整体保持稳定，"以旧换新"作为核心举措仍将持续实施，而汽 车消费作为重要一环，是政策重点支持的赛道之一。 回看2025年，汽车置换需求的爆发已经显现——数据显示，2025年1至11月，全国汽车以旧换新数量已超过1120万辆。与此同时，二手车转籍率也一直 处在较高水平，2025年10月更是达到33.1%的当期历史高位。跨区域流通壁垒正在被快速打破，二手车的这种高流通性，正在为即将到来的新一轮以旧换新 提供更加通畅、有效的通道。 综合政策定调与市场数据来看，2026年汽车消费，尤其是围绕"以旧换新"展开的置换需求，仍将保持高位运行。在这一轮即将到来的换车浪潮中，二手 车平台的定价能力与流通效率，将直接影响车主能否实现车辆价值的最大化。基于此，瓜子二手车依托平台真实、海量的全年交易数据，展现了2025年二手 车交易车型、年限、保值率等趋势。 新能源自主品牌强势崛起，燃油车主流合资品牌依旧稳健 基于这一折损规律，瓜子二手车给出了换车建议。理想的情况下，燃油车用户三年内完成出售，更有利于锁定车辆的剩余价值；而新能源车由于技术更 新节奏更快， ...

Group 1 - Joint venture car companies are at a crossroads, facing challenges from the rise of domestic brands, the wave of electrification, and the revolution of intelligence, with domestic brands capturing 65% market share from January to November this year, while some joint venture brands saw sales drop by over 30% [2] - To avoid marginalization, joint venture car companies must move beyond the comfort zone of "global technology input and local adaptation" and initiate a comprehensive localization transformation that involves systematic restructuring of technology, brand, and culture [2][3] - The reliance on global technology input is becoming a constraint for joint venture car companies in the competitive Chinese market, as the cost of core components is approximately 30% higher than that of domestic brands due to complex supply chains [3] Group 2 - Embracing local innovation and shifting the R&D focus to China is essential for joint venture car companies to gain a competitive edge in the automotive industry transformation [4] - Successful examples of localization, such as GAC Toyota's "China Chief Engineer System," demonstrate the benefits of empowering local teams with decision-making authority throughout the product development process [4] - Joint venture brands must avoid the pitfall of creating localized models that deviate from their core brand identity, as this can lead to a loss of market competitiveness [5] Group 3 - The structural change in consumer demographics highlights the importance of precise positioning, with 68% of "post-90s" car buyers prioritizing smart cockpit features, leading to a decline in joint venture brands' penetration among younger consumers [7] - To avoid ambiguous positioning, joint venture car companies need to establish a closed loop of "user insight - brand adaptation - product implementation" while maintaining brand identity during localization [7] - The erosion of engineering culture due to short-term market pressures can undermine the core competitiveness of joint venture car companies, as they may rush to market with products lacking in quality and innovation [8][9] Group 4 - The mismatch between R&D cycles and market rhythms is a root cause of short-termism, with joint venture brands averaging 46 months for new car development compared to 28 months for domestic brands, leading to a loss of technical accumulation [9] - The current challenges faced by joint venture car companies represent both a crisis signal and an opportunity for transformation, emphasizing the need for deep integration of technology, brand, and culture in localization efforts [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in the sales and production of traditional fuel vehicles, particularly compact cars and SUVs, as consumer preferences shift towards new energy vehicles. It emphasizes the current market dynamics and pricing strategies of various fuel vehicle models, indicating a competitive landscape where traditional automakers are adjusting to maintain market share [1][56]. Fuel Sedan Segment - Nissan Sylphy has seen a price drop with the classic model now priced at 59,900 (down 20,000) and the new model at 84,900 (down 45,000), achieving a July sales figure of 26,000 units, which is half of its peak sales [2]. - Volkswagen Lavida's new strategy has resulted in July sales of 23,000 units, also a significant decline from its peak, with the new model acting more as a substitute for older models [4]. - Despite the decline, a monthly sales figure of 20,000 is still notable, as many manufacturers struggle to achieve such numbers across their entire lineup [5]. Fuel SUV Segment (Compact) - The Geely Boyue series is noted for its dual model strategy, with competitive pricing and features, making it a strong contender in the compact SUV market [29]. - The Toyota RAV4 is approaching the end of its product cycle, with recent price adjustments making it a potential buy for those considering trade-ins [37]. - The Haval Big Dog is gaining traction as the H6 declines, showcasing strong build quality and value in the SUV segment [35]. Fuel Sedan Segment (B-Class) - The Toyota Camry continues to lead in B-class fuel vehicle sales, achieving 18,000 units in July despite recent price increases [15]. - The Volkswagen Passat and Magotan are also performing well, with sales figures around 17,000 units, indicating strong consumer loyalty to these models [20][18]. General Market Trends - The article suggests that both traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles are experiencing competitive pricing, making them more affordable compared to previous years [56]. - It emphasizes the importance of supporting a diverse automotive market, where both fuel and electric vehicles can coexist, reflecting a broader consumer choice [56].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience of fuel vehicles among the younger generation, particularly Generation Z, amidst the growing popularity of electric vehicles. It emphasizes that many young car owners still prefer fuel cars for their practicality and driving experience, despite societal pressures to choose electric options [4][6][29]. Group 1: Market Trends - Fuel vehicles continue to perform well in sales, with popular models achieving monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units, indicating strong consumer interest [6]. - As of early this year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles dropped to 38.4%, contradicting the narrative that fuel vehicles are on the decline [6][29]. - At the recent Shanghai Auto Show, fuel vehicles accounted for 30% of all displayed cars, showcasing their competitive performance and features compared to new energy vehicles [6][8]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Many young consumers view purchasing a car as a significant milestone, akin to a second coming-of-age ceremony, with personal stories reflecting their attachment to fuel vehicles [10][13]. - The article features anecdotes from young car owners who express a sense of freedom and personal achievement associated with owning a fuel vehicle, highlighting the emotional connection to their cars [12][14][20]. - There is a notable divide in societal perceptions, with some young fuel car owners facing criticism for their choices, yet they remain steadfast in their preferences [34][35]. Group 3: Industry Response - Car manufacturers are increasingly targeting the younger demographic with models marketed as "first cars," with various brands launching affordable options to attract this segment [29][31]. - The competition between fuel and electric vehicles is intensifying, with fuel cars now being positioned as viable alternatives in terms of pricing and technology [31][34]. - The article suggests that the automotive industry must recognize the diverse preferences of young consumers, who may not conform to a single narrative of electric vehicle superiority [34][37].

Core Insights - The tourism market is experiencing a surge during the May Day holiday, with self-driving car rentals becoming a popular choice among travelers due to their flexibility and autonomy [1][2] - Rental demand in Jinan has increased by 2-3 times compared to regular periods, with rental prices for economy models rising significantly [2][4] Rental Market Dynamics - Jinan's rental market has seen a rental rate of 90% with expectations to exceed 96% during peak holiday times, marking a 20%-30% increase in rental rates compared to the Qingming holiday [2][4] - Over 40% of rental orders are made at least a week in advance, with popular economy cars like the Volkswagen Lavida and Nissan Sylphy being the main choices [4][5] Price Trends - Rental prices have surged, with daily rates for vehicles like the Buick Excelle increasing from 80 yuan to 243 yuan, and the Tesla Model 3 rising to 523 yuan [7][8] - The demand for spacious MPVs has also increased, with daily rental prices for models like the GAC Trumpchi M8 and Buick GL8 exceeding 700 yuan, doubling from regular prices [4][8] Consumer Preferences - There is a growing trend among younger consumers towards personalized vehicle choices, with electric vehicles and RVs becoming increasingly popular [9][12] - The proportion of electric vehicles in the rental market has risen from 30% to nearly 50% this year, driven by younger consumers seeking unique driving experiences [11] Market Growth and Competition - The rapid increase in demand has led to a surge in new rental companies, with 248 new registrations in Jinan within the past year, bringing the total to 66,441 [15] - The rental market is shifting from standardized services to personalized experiences, with a focus on service quality and user experience as key competitive factors [17]